Trump vs Cruz: Doing the math at the AZGOP State Convention

By Lisa Gray (reposted from Facebook.)

I’ve been reading/hearing things that are being said about the AZGOP State Convention on Saturday, that are just not accurate and this is extremely disappointing.

First, Trump camp is repeating the line that “more people clicked the Trump slate button than any other slate and therefore should have won more delegates.” Well, let’s look at that. Attached is a picture (and link) to the vote totals. Please note that when you add the number of “clicks” on Cruz (409) + “Select Own Delegates (180 people chose not to use a slate) + Kasich (57) + Unity Slate (29) = 675. So… 675 people apparently didn’t click on the Trump slate but 430 did. You tell me what number is larger? So it’s not true that more people clicked on the Trump link so therefore he should have gotten more delegate votes.

Cruz vs Trump Math

Second, if you clicked on the Trump button (or any of the selection buttons) ALL the candidates appeared. The only difference is depending on which slate selection you chose, names on that particular slate were already checked for you. HOWEVER, names could be unchecked and people could for example vote for 80% of the slate if they wanted to and then vote for another 20% who weren’t on that particular slate. So it was never a given, nor should it have been expected, that people would just blindly click one button and boom, they were done voting and they all voted the EXACT same way. Remember…some people weren’t on slates, so perhaps they wanted to vote for themselves, a few of their close campaign buddies who also weren’t on the slate, and then the rest from the slate…they were able to do that.

Third, comments from the Trump campaign that the voting was a mess, the system didn’t work and they should be allowed to vote again, on paper is also bothersome. For those who don’t know, about 700 people submitted their name to be National Delegates and all the names could NOT fit on one ballot. So, ALL THREE CAMPAIGNS met together, evaluated and approved the online voting method. YES… ALL THREE AGREED on this prior to Saturday.

Fourth, people were left off of slates. Now I really have no idea if this is true or not. What I can tell you is that the campaigns were responsible for their slates. And I’m disappointed to hear it said that someone was “cheated” and an election was “stolen” from them. However, what I do know is that Jan Brewer was elected as an alternate delegate in CD8. She and Phil Lovas tied for the first alternate position. A coin toss was done to break the tie and Brewer called heads, tails won and therefore Lovas won the first alternate delegate position. So she did win an alternate delegate position but then declined it and withdrew her name from that position so she could run for an at-large delegate position. Again, I have no idea what happened to her not being on the “Trump slate” however, she did win an alternate delegate position in her Congressional District and chose not to accept it. Also, she may not have been on the at-large “Trump slate” for whatever reason but she was on the “Unity” slate and her name was on the ballot listing all the candidates that were running for at-large delegates positions and she received 93 votes.

I want to thank the staff of the AZGOP for a well run meeting. If anyone attended the convention 4 years ago, you know how much better this meeting was! Lets remember that this meeting took months to plan, some didn’t sleep for days, and they worked their tails off to make it the best meeting they could…for all of us. Of course there were hiccups and there usually are when you are planning a meeting for more than 1,000 people that also needed to include multiple voting locations, multiple ballots to accommodate 700ish names, security, credentials, volunteers, feeding everyone, etc. We have a great team not only at the AZGOP, but also across our great state. And I pray that even though we may not agree on candidates, and sometimes issues, that we would take a deep breath, look for the truth and have respect for one another.

Here’s the link to the results: https://neverhillary.simplyvoting.com/index.php?mode=results&election=43455

Lisa Gray is a longtime volunteer Republican precinct committeewoman and former chairman of a west valley legislative district.

INEPTITUDE, NOT FRAUD: Behind The Scenes Video Surfaces Of DeWit Screaming At Staffers For TrumpTrain’s Failure

Video surfaced today of Trump’s AZ point person and Chairman Jeff DeWit going off on his TrumpTrain staffers (who appear to be Thayer Verschoor and Charles Munoz) who apparently did not vet the delegates that THEY placed on THEIR slate.

To quote The Donald, they are “lightweight chock artists”.  The TrumpTrain cannot cry foul for their delegate disaster now that we have video evidence blaming each other for their ineptitude.

Just remember this video the next time the tiny-handed Trump says he’ll “hire the best people”.

‘CRUZ MISSILE’ DERAILS ‘TRUMP TRAIN’ AT AZGOP CONVENTION

The Arizona GOP held their quadrennial meeting yesterday to vote on delegates for the GOP convention to be held in Cleveland in late July.  And much like the Ron Paul campaigns in the past, the social media presence for Trump failed to yield results in real life.

According to our math, the pro-Planned Parenthood Trump camp was only able to win 16 of the 58 delegate slots available with Team Cruz winning at least 32 of the remaining 42 delegates.  We’re not sure if the remaining delegates are Kasich delegates, or just undeclared activists intent on upholding and shaping the GOP platform come late July.

The Birther/Bircher dominated Trump camp won many of the Congressional District delegations slots (14 including Gov Ducey who is not on record being a Trump delegate), but the well-organized conservatives of the Cruz Camp destroyed Team Trump in the ‘Delegate At-Large’ election by winning 26 of 28 delegate slots.  As the Trump camp continues to whine about being ‘cheated’ (as usual), they did have a significant victory in electing Lori Klein as AZ’s new RNC Committeewoman.

After a long day and a long fight, it was a great day for Liberty and the #NeverTrump camp in Arizona.  If Trump doesn’t sweep in Indiana and California, the election yesterday will have a YUGE impact if pro-amnesty Donald Trump fails to win 1237 votes on the 1st vote.

Update on AZ01 GOP Candidate Earn vs Burn Rates

In an earlier post, we provided an analysis of the campaign finance reports of Arizona’s CD-1 candidates. At the time, no information was available from the Shawn Redd campaign because the reports were filed manually with the Federal Elections Commission. Those reports are now available.

We also need to correct a number on another candidate campaign in which a typo occurred on the spreadsheet. That candidate’s financial health actually improved significantly with the correction. Read our updated analysis below.

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An analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by CD-1 candidates shows some interesting financial trends taking place.

Looking exclusively at the first quarter period of time, we calculated daily earn and burn rates for each of the campaigns effective March 31st. There were 91 days in 1Q.

These rates have been adjusted based on the number of days the campaign has been operating for the 1st quarter period of time. In addition, we calculated the burn rate for each candidate to the Primary Election date. There are 152 days until the Primary Election from March 31st. This is the amount of money the campaign has left to spend on a daily basis to get to August 30th leaving no money left in the bank.

For this assessment, all reports are now available and are pro-rated accordingly to the days a candidate has been in the race. For example, Wendy Rogers has been in the race for 78 days and Carlyle Begay has only been in the race 22 days. The earn and burn rates are adjusted accordingly.

Here are the updated/corrected numbers:

Candidate Campaign Raised 1Q Days in 1Q Daily Earn Rate 1Q Spent    1Q Daily Burn Rate 1Q Daily Earn vs Burn Gap Cash on Hand 1Q Days to Primary Daily Burn Rate to Primary Election
Babeu $157,734 91 $1,733 $148,157 $1,628 $105 $259,351 152 $1,706
Begay $39,905 22 $1,814 $513 $23 $1,791 $39,392 152 $259
Bennett $80,027 91 $879 $55,633 $611 $268 $195,691 152 $1,287
Gowan $169,390 91 $1,861 $70,978 $780 $1,081 $238,468 152 $1,569
Kiehne $48,980 91 $538 $113,933 $1,252 -$714 $513,615 152 $3,379
Redd $1,800 91 $20 $7,615 $84 -$64 $1,785 152 $12
Rogers $144,209 79 $1,825 $51,809 $656 $1,170 $100,765 152 $663

 

As a prior post pointed out, Paul Babeu has the highest burn rate followed by Gary Kiehne. Excluding Begay’s campaign due to the short period of time, both Wendy Rogers and Ken Bennett have the lowest burn rates.

For the entire quarter, Wendy Rogers was the most financially disciplined candidate while Paul Babeu was the biggest spender and Gary Kienhe ran the largest deficit.

We corrected the amount raised for Wendy Rogers which resulted in a significant boost to her daily earn rate. That still resulted in David Gowan barely remaining at the top of the list with a daily earn rate of $1,861 but moved Wendy Rogers into second place at a daily earn rate of $1,825. Paul Babeu trailed at a daily earn rate of $1,733 but if we include Carlyle Begay given the short amount of time he has been in the race, Babeu drops to 4th place.

One thing to note about fundraising for these candidates is the ease of access to PAC and lobbyist money. As Speaker of the House David Gowan has tremendous influence over the outcome of legislation. Many lobbyists have bills making their way through the Arizona House and that means a high level of interaction and access with the Speaker. A review of Gowan’s report reveals that many lobbyists have contributed to his campaign. It also shows that he has received $16,250 in PAC contributions – the top recipient of all the candidates. Carlyle Begay placed 2nd in PAC contributions at $12,000 while Babeu ran 3rd with $5,000. Ken Bennett bottomed the list with $1,000 in PAC contributions. Gary Kiehne, Shawn Redd and Wendy Rogers received no money from PAC’s

Looking at available money, Gary Kiehne has the highest amount available to spend on a daily basis heading into the August 30th Primary Election. It should be noted that Kiehne has loaned his campaign the most money out of all the other campaigns with $50,000 being fronted to the campaign during the 1st quarter and $678,072 being loaned during the election cycle to date.

Candidates with a larger gap between earn and burn rates this early in a campaign are more likely to be in better financial shape heading into an election. Obviously, candidates should be raising more money then they are spending to avoid draining their resources or running a deficit. Here’s an UPDATED graph of those rates showing the daily gap between each candidate’s earn and burn rates:

AZ01 Candidate Daily Earn & Burn Rates

 

In this graph, Gary Kiehne has an inverted burn to earn gap of -$714. Shawn Redd’s gap is now included in this analysis and shows he spent more money than he took in during IQ with a daily gap of -$64. Paul Babeu’s campaign is barely staying ahead of his burn rate at $105/day. Ken Bennett may have a lower burn rate but his earn rate is also very low giving him a gap of $268. That leaves Wendy Rogers and David Gowan with the healthiest gaps. Gowan’s gap amounts to $1,081 but after a correction in the data, Rogers’ gap grows to $1,170 making her the candidate with the healthiest daily earn-to-burn rate. (Carlyle Begay was excluded from this 1Q analysis because the campaign had only been in the race for 22 days which is below a 30-day billing cycle for spending money.)

  • Paul Babeu spent $0.94 for every dollar he raised
  • Ken Bennett spent $0.70 for every dollar he raised
  • David Gowan spent $0.42 for every dollar he raised
  • Gary Kiehne spent $2.33 for every dollar he raised
  • Wendy Rogers spent $0.36 for every dollar she raised

Our conclusion: David Gowan raised the most money although much of it was from lobbyists and PAC’s. Paul Babeu spent the most amount of money and his daily earning rate is barely keeping ahead of his daily spending rate. Gary Kiehne ran the largest deficit spending for the quarter having raised the least amount of money but loaning the campaign the most amount of money. Ken Bennett raised the least amount of money for 1Q and spends nearly 70% of what he raises. Carlyle Begay has not been in the race long enough to derive an accurate assessment. Shawn Redd’s financial reports eliminate him from the analysis as an outlier. While Wendy Rogers placed 3rd in fundraising, she has the healthiest daily earn vs. burn rate showing her to be the most financially disciplined candidate in the race for CD-1.

Here are links to each candidate’s campaign finance reports on the FEC:

Paul Babeu
Carlyle Begay
Ken Bennett
David Gowan

Gary Kiehne
Shawn Redd
Wendy Rogers

BREAKING: Kelli Ward Picks Up Endorsement From Mark Levin

During today’s broadcast of the Mark Levin radio show, Levin took a minute to announce his endorsement of Kelli Ward for the AZ Senate Primary race.  Levin, whose disdain for Liberal Republican John McCain is well documented, praised Kelli Ward for her courage to take on the entrenched liberal senator and praised her efforts on behalf of ‘small-R republicanism’.

This wasn’t the first time Levin mentioned Ward on the air.  He interviewed Kelli Ward on his radio program several times over the past few years, largely to discuss her involvement in the Article V Convention of States movement that would restore federalism as envisioned by our Framers.

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What this ‘Levin Surge’ will do for the Ward campaign is anyone’s guess, but Levin’s record of endorsing Tea Party challengers is impressive as he endorsed both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio when they were both polling in the low-single digits.

Other candidates challenging McCain include activist Claire Van Steenwyck, businessmen Alex Meluskey and David Pizer. According to all polls released to date, these 3 candidates have no significant support among the Conservative base but may play a ‘spoiler’ for those who wish to oust McCain.

ArizonaInformer will continue to monitor this race closely.

Christine Jones – A Fresh Choice for Congress

Christine JonesShe hasn’t even announced a decision to run for congress and career politicians are already treating her as a threat to the political system they are trying to protect.

That’s the response Christine Jones has elicited from the campaign teams and political insiders catering to a flooded field of entitled east valley politicians.

Republican businesswoman Christine Jones is no career politician and she hasn’t spent her career climbing the ladder of political offices like others already in the race for CD-5.

Jones has risen in her career through tremendous hard work and commitment to conservative business principles. As the first in-house attorney for GoDaddy, she was an integral part of the success of the popular domain name and hosting company. In fact, she was part of the team that helped grow the company to over 4,000 employees.

Currently, she serves as the interim CEO of Great Hearts Academies – one of the most successful charter school systems in Arizona. The school has an impressive reputation of high test scores and college-bound graduates.

Other than the obvious, Christine Jones is very different from the cadre of career politicians running for this open seat. She knows how to accomplish major goals as both a team player and as a strong woman leader.

Any day, she is expected to make a decision and announcement. Should she enter the race, it will certainly stir things up for the cabal of east valley politicians but isn’t that what makes a strong principled leader?

If she gets in the race, Christine Jones will be a fresh choice and a strong voice for the citizens of CD-5.

Poll: Prop 123 Shows Strong Numbers With Early Voting Underway

Predictive Insights

Bi-partisan support for prop 123

PHOENIX (April 27, 2016) — Arizona’s special election for two statewide initiatives including the education bill, Proposition 123, will be voted on May 17th, 2016.

In a survey of 665 likely special election voters, 59.7 percent said they would vote in favor of Prop 123.

Prop 123 – Education Funding
April 25, 2016 Results
Definitely Yes 38.5%
Probably Yes 21.2%
Probably No 9%
Definitely No 24.4%
Unsure/Undecided 6.9%

“Early indicators show strong support for Proposition 123 across all demographics,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights said, “It is surprising to see only 6.9% of likely voters are undecided which tells us voters are keenly aware of the measure.  If you hear someone talking about this next time you are in-line at the grocery store – don’t be surprised.”

Wes Gullett, Partner in OH Predictive Insights and political consultant was impressed that the Yes vote is strong across all demographics and was cautiously positive about the results. “Democrats, Republicans and Independents are all voting yes close to 60%.  However, with ballot measures typically the ‘No’ vote does a better than the polling on election day so the Yes side needs to have a strong turnout of supporters over the next three weeks,” Gullett said.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on April 25th, 2016, from a sample of likely special election voters from across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 May 17th special election in Arizona. The sample size was 665 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of ± 3.8%

VIDEO: Parents are rallying behind Prop 123

Here is the latest ad by Prop 123 showing parents rallying behind the measure to get more money in their children’s classrooms.

Parents are rallying behind Prop 123 because it will put $3.5 billion into the classroom over the next 10 years. It will help Arizona schools pay teachers what they deserve and ensure our students have the resources they need in the classroom.
Share this video with a parent you know, so they know that a YES vote on Prop 123 is our best chance to improve our public schools.

Priorities: Governing vs. Campaigning

By East Valley Evan

It’s that weird time of the political season when conflicts arise revealing where politicians’ priorities really are.

Yesterday, leaders of the Arizona House and Senate reached a deal on how to divvy up sections of Governor Ducey’s budget proposal. That deal will be revealed today.

Setting aside the details of the deal, it’s worth pointing out where leaders of both chambers are spending their time as this process unfolds.

Every legislator acknowledges that the most important part of their job is to pass a budget that establishes the financial priorities for the State of Arizona. It’s what voters elect candidates to do and it’s the epitome of responsibility for legislators once elected.

When it comes down to governing or campaigning, governing should always take priority.

Citizens would think and expect leadership in the House and Senate to treat this constitutional obligation with the utmost attention. Apparently that obligation can take a back seat  if you’re a candidate for another office while holding down your leadership position in the legislature.

House Speaker David Gowan got it right (although he is avoiding interaction with members of the media these days) when he skipped a CD-1 candidate forum in Casa Grande Monday night. He stuck around the legislature to make sure the House wrapped up the budget deal.

It wasn’t the same on the Senate side. Senate President Andy Biggs was nowhere to be found in the State of Arizona. Instead, he is making the rounds in Washington, DC trying to raise money for his next government gig. According to the Arizona Republic:

Senate Majority Leader Steve Yarbrough, R-Chandler — who was acting as Senate president while Andy Biggs was in Washington, D.C., Monday fundraising for a congressional campaign… 

Senate President Biggs who has become the professional career politician obviously feels the need to fly back to Washington, rub elbows with lobbyists and return home with a bundle of campaign cash.

Meanwhile, his colleagues in the House and Senate will work through the details on how best to spend Arizona taxpayer dollars.

It’s all about priorities.

~ He that is faithful in that which is least is faithful also in much (Luke 16:10)

Debbie Moak & Seth Leibsohn Discuss Campaign for Responsible Drug Policy

Debbie Moak and Seth Leibsohn discuss the adverse effects of legalizing Marijuana for recreational use in Arizona. Both Debbie and Seth appeared on Newsmaker Sunday with John Hook.

Here is the video: