Waring Still Leads CD3 Race in New Poll

Quayle’s Entrance Draws Support From Other Candidates;
Many Candidates Still Lacking Traction

Wednesday, March 10, 2010
PHOENIX, AZ – A recent survey conducted by Phoenix-based Summit Consulting Group, Inc. shows former state Senator Jim Waring still leading the crowded field in the race for Congress in District 3.

Congressman John Shadegg’s announcement that he will be retiring at the end of his current term has drawn at least eight Republican candidates to succeed Shadegg in Congress.  While rumors abound about even more candidates will be jumping in the race, Summit conducted a poll which included only the most viable candidates thus far.

Among those surveyed who have made a decision or have an opinion on the current lineup of candidates, Waring receives nearly 44% of the vote.

When asked the question, “In August, Republican voters will cast their vote for the new Republican nominee from District 3.  If the Republican primary election were held today, who would you vote for?”

The results:

Jim Waring            43.7%
Ben Quayle            25.9%
Sam Crump            11.1%
Pamela Gorman    10.3%
Vernon Parker        5.9%
Paulina Morris        1.4%
Ed Winkler              1.0%
Steve Moak              1.0%

“This is great news for the campaign.  I’m working hard every day to meet with voters to talk about the most pressing issues facing our country.  The outpouring of support for my campaign has been incredible so far.  It’s humbling, to say the least.  I’m confident that if we continue to work hard and listen to the voters, we’ll be successful in August and November,” said Waring.

The survey was conducted between March 8th and 9th and interviewed 400 likely Republican primary voters in CD3.  The margin of error is +/-5%.  Overall, there are a considerable number of undecided voters in this race but the fact remains that Waring possesses a consistent lead among Republican primary voters.

Ben Quayle, son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, entering the race appears to have hurt former state Senator Pamela Gorman’s campaign the most.  Just last month, another Summit Group poll showed Gorman with 26.8% of the vote.  Other notable candidates, such as former state Rep. Sam Crump and Vernon Parker, who recently abandoned his bid to become the Republican nominee for Governor, still have yet to gain any traction among base Republican voters.


  1. hotflashholly says

    wow…looks like little quayle is smothering out Vernon and the like. Glad to see Warig still has the lead…he will win this deal in the end IMHO

  2. Seedy Three says

    Pretty impressive numbers from the Waring campaign. It looks like he beats the next three candidates – combined.

    It’s tough to see how the rest of the field makes up ground with the shortened calendar. We should start to see the herd culled soon.

  3. Oberserve says

    Do people realize that Jim Waring has never had a job?

    He’s never needed to make payroll in the private sector.

    He’s never held a job in the private sector since he graduated college.

    What the heck kind of Republican candidate does that make him?


    It makes him a Democrat candidate.

    Get rid of Waring. It’s time for his political career to be over once and for all.


  4. Oberserve, who would you choose of the field?

    Where do I find the dictionary you use to define the labels you so readily throw out?Democrat, liberal, socialist…etc., I’m having a hard time following you…it sure looks like you alone make the definitions and the allowance by which they can be used.

  5. Dan Quayle says

    I just hope that my son will remember to vote for himself this election. It’s always been such a pain to drag him out of bed to vote in an Arizona primary.

  6. fedpublius says

    Jim is a man of his word. Arizona needs a dedicated hard worker. Other candidates simply cannot keep up with him.

    His high marginal lead is proof that his is personally speaking to Arizonans, which show that he puts them first.

  7. Anyone notice Vernon Parker down there in the single-digit basement?

    I remember when he being promoted as the next coming of the Gipper.

    What happened?

  8. I would like to know what percentage of voters in that poll said they are undecided. If it is a large number, then the individual candidate results are much less important than they are being advertised as.

    The press release also does not say whether the selection of likely primary voters was random or was more heavily populated by LD7 voters where Waring has much greater name recognition.

    You know the old saying. There’s lies, there’s damned lies, and then there’s statistics.

  9. Jim Waring will probably be moving to the Washington, DC area after the election whether he wins or loses. His wife and children will be living there as his wife has a home and business there.

    The only real difference will be that Jim will not sell his house in Phoenix if he wins in order to maintain his legal primary residence here in order to stay in Congress and for visits to Phoenix.

  10. As fedpublius said, Jim is a man of his word. I generally agree with that. The problem is what his words and actions are!

    He is a McCain associate which means we can expect him to take VERY similar positions as McCain. We should expect limitations on constitutional rights to free speech, onerous environmental regulations like Cap and Trade for “greenhouse” gases, regulations like the vitamin regulatory laws McCain proposed and is now running away from, and amnesty for illegal aliens.

    Jim Waring generally sees government as a great tool for solving problems rather than a root cause of many of our problems. His PhD specialty is government financing of education. His enthusiasm for that subject should tell you something about his preference for complicated government formulas to fund government programs instead of just shifting as much to the private sector and individual decision making as is possible.

    Like John McCain, Jim Waring is the sort of politician who thinks he knows better than his constituents what is best for them. That’s why he thinks there is a real, legitimate role for the government to run people’s lives – especially if he is part of the government.

  11. Not cool dad… SERIOUSLY not cool… I’ll still see you at dinner tonight, right? What is mom cooking tonight?

  12. Seedy Three says


    That tired label just don’t stick to this one, sorry.

    The facts are all on record and show Waring to be a real Reagan Republican that has always promoted limited government based upon our Constitution. He’s a recognized taxpayer champion and leader on right to life, family issues and the Second Amendment.

    Playing ‘seven degrees of John McCain’ may make you feel better about supporting an underdog, but it will not be very helpful in looking at this race in 2010.

  13. Seedy,

    I’d say it’s one degree of John McCain.

    As for being a Reagan conservative – yeah, like John McCain is. Well, I guess Waring is more conservative than John McCain.

    Talk to Waring about privatizing government functions and about limiting government revenues. He has quietly supported sales and property taxes that were on the ballot.

    Waring is for efficient government, but he is not for limiting the role of government. He even sponsored a bill to regulate cell phone contracts because he was annoyed with how his cell phone company treated him. That’s from the Goldwater Institute, and is not just a wild rumor. Ask some conservative state senators if you have any doubt. This is a guy who fundamentally believes in using government to pursue what he thinks is right rather than limiting government to let others do what they think is right.

  14. Oberserve,
    Has Russell Pearce ever had a job in the private sector? If not, what does that make him?

  15. Brad Stevens says

    Jim Waring is a Napolitano Republican, he repeatedly voted for Napolitano’s budgets over his entire career.

    Thanks Jim for making us second only to California in our budget defecit!

  16. LOL! Quayle Jr. has almost support as much as Parker, Gorman and Crump combined!

  17. Hopefully Vernon will be dropping out of this race too.

  18. Stephen Kohut says

    Americans for Prosperity and The Pachyderm Coalition both rate Waring as the bottom of the 3 ex-legislators running. Crum and Gorman rate as more conservative.

    Pachyderm Coalition Ratings
    Sam Crump 90.6 Reagan Republican
    Pamela Gorman 82.7 Pro-Freedom Republican
    Jim Waring 72.6 Republican

    Cumulative AFP ratings
    Pamela Gorman 79 Friend of the Taxpayer
    Sam Crump 77 Friend of the Taxpayer
    Jim Waring 76 Friend of the taxpayer

  19. Mike Kelton says

    The best poll will be when we know the fundraising numbers from the March 30 report (coming out in April).

    My guess is Vernon and Jim will crack the $100K mark, which makes them the front-runners.

    Pam and Sam? I am guessing they are having a hard time, but if they break $50K then they are in the hunt. If not, they should update their resumes.

    Of course, Moak and Quayle will try to buy the race, as will sweet Paulina.

  20. Oberserve,
    I have another question for you. Has Joe Arpaio ever had a job in the private sector? If not, what does that make him?

  21. “This is great news for the campaign. I’m working hard every day to meet with voters to talk about the most pressing issues facing our country.” — Jim Waring

    Didn’t know Waring was so supportive of Medical Marijuna, I am guessing it’s the only way he is able to put out statements like this, and believe polls like this.

    Waring, Cheech and Chong for Congress!

  22. Jon Altmann, ISCS, USN (Ret.) says

    Jim Waring holds a Ph.D., has worked harder at constituent relations than many in the legislature and has been a stand-up guy for Veterans and our issues.
    As a retired service member active in national veterans issues, I value greatly someone who worked hard to give a voice to those who have served. Jim Waring is that person.
    Jim is my choice for putting a “warrior” on Capitol Hill that will drive home some fiscal responsibility.

  23. Oberserve says

    Jim is a warrior for the unions, that’s for sure.

    He doesn’t understand what it takes to actually run a business and make payroll (in the private sector doing private sector work), nor has he ever actually drawn a sarlary (in the private sector doing private sector work).

    Because of that, how could he possibly understand what real life is like for normal working Arizonans, let alone be a good representative of them representing their interest?

    It’s not possible.

    It’s time from him to retire from politics and get a real job or take some time off from politics to get real world experience and then run for Congress.

  24. Oberserve says

    Unions and lobbyists.

  25. A poll now is meaningless. The average CD-3 voter hasn’t even realized that John Shadegg isn’t running again. When the signs go up in July, then people will start to pay attention. Here is an objective analysis of a currently undecided CD-3 voter (I have met almost all of them, I am not close friends with any of them):

    Waring did work for McCain, but he is not a McCain clone by any stretch of the imagination. So that really shouldn’t be used against him. Here’s an example, Deb Gullett worked for McCain and was elected to the legislature. She was a “Mavrick” too. I never saw that from Waring. A lot is made of the fact that he has “worked hard” and knocked on a lot of doors. However, that does not mean he will make a good Congressman. Republicans don’t give trophy’s for effort or participation. May the best candidate win! To me, the fact he knocks on doors really says he had no personal life and that he is weird! Do we really want to elect someone who has nothing better to do with his time than knock doors in a non-election year? I don’t. That is too much “politician” for me. He needs to get a hobby. I do think he would make a decent Congressman, but I certainly don’t consider him a strong leader, and I don’t think he will do great things for Arizona or the USA. I have watched him for seven years and I can’t recall a single courageous vote that he made for something he believed in. He has always gone along to get along.

    Crump would have a chance to win if only conservative bloggers voted, but that is the problem. Most conservative bloggers don’t donate money to campaigns, and most voters don’t blog. Crump is pretty smart, has good political instincts, and would love nothing more than to become the nation’s next Ron Paul. Can you say Crump Nation??? I have heard that he hasn’t always been conservative, like when he ran for the California Assembly. Some opponent should check that out. I don’t have time. But to me, Crump is conservative. However, I don’t think he has a chance! He’ll be lucky to raise $100K, with little chance to get over $200K

    Quayle will do better than most of us think. He is unknown, but he gets to define himself to the voters with a million dollars. That’s big. The fact that he missed some primary votes won’t hurt him like people think. Heck, we don’t know a thing about him and he came in Second in this poll. Imagine what will happen when we see his commercials over and over while we watch O’Reilly Factor and Sean Hannity!

    Morris hopes the field is so splintered that having the distinction of being the only pro-choice candidate on the ballot will actually help her in the republican primary. It could happen. Her entrance into the race really hurts Gorman, and I think she will get more votes than Pamela too. Watch to see if she starts raising a lot of money. That could signify that feminist-type interest groups may have polling that indicates an opportunity to steal a seat from a social conservative. She’ll surprise many, but I don’t think she pulls it off.

    Vernon is the most charismatic in the field. By far the person in the field I’d most like to have a beer with. It is hard not to like him. But once he gets past his compelling life story, what about him would get someone to elect him to Congress? Being a former Washington bureaucrat doesn’t quite do it for me! Quayle and Moak seriously hurt his chances to raise money in Paradise Valley too.

    Winkler should stop collecting signatures already.

    Moak?? Who is Steve Moak??? I have learned a little about him and here is my prediction. By election day, everyone in CD-3 will know Steve Moak and he will get a lot of votes. He is a leader. Some may be offended by an impression that he is trying to buy a Congressional seat. Others will say he is putting his money where his mouth is.

    There’s the field as this amateur political junkie see’s it. My prediction? If money doesn’t trump, I think Waring has the best shot because of name ID. Speaking of name ID, what is Adam Driggs doing? I thought he was getting in a few weeks ago, then some said he wanted to help finish the state budget first. He better decide soon, because time is a wasting. Driggs could potentially make waves because outside the self-funders, he can raise money as well as Waring can, and he probably has some money of his own too. He is House Judiciary chairman and knows the Constitution well, which would be helpful in D.C. right now. He also is a conservative who gets along with the right wing folks and also the center folks, which is rare and could bring a lot of votes. He’d be a long shot to win this race, but in a crowded field, anything can happen. I shouldn’t speculate until he gets in though.

    If money is key, then it is a brawl between Moak and Quayle. I predict they will beat each other up pretty good. That would help Waring most, but they might beat him up too. If they all beat each other up, that could help Crump or Morris sneak in, but Crump needs to raise serious money for that to happen, so it is up to the Tea Partiers to put their money where their mouth is. Also, will J.D. have coattails in CD-3? I predict Gorman comes in last place. (unless Winkler gets his petitions submitted).

    Final prediction: Congressman Steve Moak.
    (I hate to be cynical, but these races come down to money. TV spots on Fox News all day in every home beats knocking on 200 doors a day in a congressional race, especially when most people aren’t even home!)

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  27. Gotta love the creeps who sit in their mother’s basements criticizing everyone else who puts their hat in the ring. I may just support Jim because the freak shows out there are opposing him. Turn off your computer and see if your mom’s meatloaf is ready. Single and 45 living in your mom’s basement doesn’t make you a political genius …

  28. Esteban Cadiz says

    Ditto AZ 1542 “Ma, where’s the Meatloaf!!!”

    Interesting how so many posters deride these candidates yet are totally wrong about the facts of their lives, they simply do not know what they are spouting off about. They also blame Quayle for who his father is instead of who he is. Real Brain trusts, huh? Open minded and inclusive, huh?? They are so weak-minded that they depend on their loser friends to validate them, distorting fiction into facts.

    Obama has the least resume of accomplishment of any President ever elected due to ignorance. These idiots voted for Obama, the biggest loser ever elected and yet throw rocks. Fortunately they are most likely young enough to totally suffer the consequences of Obama’s destruction of their futures. And too stupid to see it coming.

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