The Bush visit.

Update: The Arizona Daily Star is reporting that the event raised more than $600,000. I think CD 8 just got a whole lot more competitive. The $600,000 figure has now been dialed back to more than $500,000. Still quite good.

     Sources indicate that the visit by President Bush was very successful. There were almost 500 people at the breakfast and depending on how strict they were about collecting the full $1,000 the Bee campaign might well have just raised at least $500,000.

     The president does have some difficulty with polling but since his name will not be on the ballot in 2008 it might not matter. 2008 will be about Barack Obama and John McCain and in CD 8 about Gabrielle Giffords and Tim Bee. Democrat attacks based on the Bush name may miss the target.

     The Arizona Daily Star has a slideshow of the visit. After the page loads scroll down and click on the buttons at the bottom of the window to see the photos.


Comments

  1. The Gipper says

    $500,000 for bacon and eggs? I don’t care what spin the Dem’s give, that’s pretty impressive.

  2. Bacon and eggs? We heard that it was a bagel and fruit. It is impressive and really changes the race.

  3. Just Win Baby says

    How much was hard money and how much was soft? Was it to Bee or to Pima County? Not taking away from the haul, because its a big number in any case! I also wonder how much of that money was already collected and is already reflected in Bee’s reports?

  4. It’s doesn’t matter. The vast majority will still end up helping the Bee campaign.

  5. kralmajales says

    I supect that once its divided out, the till wont be that big. Still, even if that is the case…it puts him behind by nearly a million dollars in fundraising.

    Oh…and did you see the latest polls posted at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion.

    He has no name recognition…OR…he is getting it handed to him. 60% to 35%….not good.

  6. kralmajales says

    Oh…and if it does get even remotely competitive…wait until Barack visits for Giffords. Right now…there is no need.

  7. kralmajales says

    What I suspected is right. The Citizen is reporting that the amount raised will be divided between the following:

    Bee campaign, the RNCC, and the US Senate and House campaign committees.

    I suspect that the RNCC will take a great deal of it and will use it in District that it can actually win.

  8. Kral, while this will be no surprise to anyone, once again you are wrong. From what I understand around $500,000 is all his.

    Apparently, you didn’t read the latest poll cited by scramblewatch.com:

    http://skinny08.wordpress.com/2008/07/18/bee-campaign-poll-within-striking-distance-of-giffords/

    Try to spin it how you will. This was the biggest haul of any fundraiser in Southern Arizona history.

    Finally, it seems like a collosal waste of time for Obama to step foot in AZ between now and election day, especially to help someone who refused to commit. The only reason he would be because she’s in serious trouble.

  9. Oh, and before you try the whole: “Margaret is a nice lady but she’s a partisan, blah, blah, blah…” business: she was dead on in the races in 2006.

  10. Kral is technically correct that the money is divided between several groups. Rest assured all funds marked for the Pima County GOP will eventually benefit the Bee campaign. I cannot add too much more than that except to just say that it is fact.

    The NRCC money will probably come right back in the CD 8 race. You can do all the polling that you want but this is going to be a competitive race. NRCC even played in the district during the train wreck of ’06. They will be a lot more motivated this time.

    Not sure about the U.S. Senate money but this AZ 8 is now on the map for 2008.

  11. I am a Giffords backer, but this race will be VERY close and there is no way she has the lead the poll cited on R-Cubed claims. Bee’s strength in Eastern Pima and Cochise Counties will be formidable and Giffords will need every dime of the advantage she now has in money. Having McCain at the top of the ticket will help Republicans and may also attract independents to Bee. Moreover, everyone with a lick of political sense knows that the president doesn’t come to raise money in districts where the die is already cast.

    Democrats need to get to the independents before Bee does…and he is clearly going after them big time if his early ads are any indicator. What Bee needs to worry about is that his lameass handling of the gay marriage matter upsets moderates and that the slapdash budget he cobbled together with Janet and the other Democrats makes you guys on the Right mad. If I were him, I would also be concerned with a weak legislative ticket in LD26 diluting Republican enthusiasm and support in the area of CD8 that WILL be the big battleground. If he has to run with know-nothings like Melvin or Zerull, the moderate GOP voters on this side of town may decide that their party has left them with little choice but to switch sides entirely this year. Giffords did well in LD26 in 2006 and not just because she had an easy mark as an opponent. Democrats as a whole did well here because the GOP team was seen as a slate of extremists.

    My prediction: Giffords by 4 points.

  12. kralmajales says

    Interesting Rex, with all your worries, you aren’t too far off my prediction of 5%.

    Its still a win…she will win.

    I am not wrong about the money folks. I wasn’t wrong about how much of the so called till he got for the Rove visit either….not all…everyone knows it. I doubt very very seriously that the RNCC will dump every bit of that back here.

    Last one poll has him down 7%…one has him down as much as 25%.

    I will take the middle.

    Finally, Rex you tend to worry a bit much about Dems being complacent and giving it to Bee. That wont happen.

  13. I am not worried about complacency, but hubris. There has been too much of the latter from some Democrats about the 2008 election overall, including in CD8. Whenever you minimize the strengths of your opponents, you cede them a certain advantage. My preference is to be prudent, factual and to fight like hell, especially when the 527s and the rest of their ilk start spewing mud at Gabby.

    Anyone who puts their own spin on my words is not reading them closely enough.

  14. kralmajales says

    Fair enough Rex…I take the call to fight like hell and I agree complacency and hubris only leads you to underestimate your opponent. The fight will be taken to them rather than the opposite.

  15. You’re a good man, Kral. I prefer it when we are posting on the same side! My bad if I ever made it sound like I thought Dems were shrugging off the challenge from Bee. Given the noble efforts of people like yourself, I know that is never the case.

  16. Just Win Baby says

    No Josey, the NRCC really didn’t play in the district in 2006, unless you count them ATTACKING Randy Graf during the Primary, then making a big show of pulling their funds from the race after Graf won anyway. I mean, you are right in that they played with it in 2006, but that’s only true in that they screwed with it, messed it up, then ran away. Here’s hoping Bee doesn’t get that kind of “help”.

  17. kralmajales says

    I suspect that the NRCC will give Bee some help as they must like him more than Graf or they wouldn’t have sent folk like the President here to raise funds in the first place.

    That said, the bigger issue is that the GOP has more turf to defend nationally, lower numbers, lower funds overall to go around. Here in Arizona, you have to pick where your resources go. Renzis open seat has to be a priority over one ya lost and want to get back. Same with Mitchell…Mitchell? Giffords? Mitchell? Giffords? Then Shaddeg has a real opponent this time which provides yet another monetary distraction.

    But the real issue is the midwest and Northeast, where the GOP is bleeding seats.

    So, I suspect the NRCC will dive in…but they also have serious opportunity costs (took a lil econ in college).

Trackbacks

  1. […] some good numbers in the latest and previous quarters. Last week the President of the United States came to town and helped raise over $500,000 for the Bee campaign. Not to be out done this week the DCCC has […]

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