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US Senate

Poll: Democrats Support Ousting Sinema in 2024 Primary

Kelly Faces Alarming Favorables One Year Out from Election

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (November 22nd, 2021)- When Sen. Mark Kelly was elected in 2020, his victory marked the first time Arizona was represented by two Democrats in the United States Senate since the early-1950s. Since taking office, Kelly has established himself as more of a party-line Democrat, while his colleague, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, has ruffled feathers by opposing some of her party’s key priorities. A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) suggests that both Democrats could be in danger of losing their runs at re-election.

This AZPOP survey was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.7%.

Sinema Favorables

Since President Joe Biden’s inauguration, many of his ambitious legislative priorities – such as voting rights reform, his budget framework, and climate change legislation – have been stalled in the evenly divided Senate. Many blame the stalled legislation on Sinema, and OHPI’s polling suggests that Arizona Democrats are starting to have the same feeling.

kyrsten sinema favorability

Kyrsten Sinema’s favorability ratings are roughly split among Arizona voters, with 42% viewing her favorably and 45% viewing her unfavorably. What is especially interesting is the Democratic Senator’s ratings across the aisle – Sinema’s numbers with Republicans are above water while her numbers with Democrats are underwater. Forty-eight percent of Republicans view Sinema favorably and 45% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, just 42% of Sen. Sinema’s own party view her in a favorable light and 47% hold an unfavorable view of her.

Sinema’s Primary Woes
“Sen. Sinema’s growing unpopularity with voters from within her own party could prove fatal in 2024 when she will have to ask for Democrats’ support for re-nomination,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “While there is still time between now and then, Sinema has ground to make up with her constituents in the next three years.”

When asked who they would prefer as a U.S. Senator given the options of Sinema, a Republican, and a Democrat other than Sinema, only 26% of Arizona Democrats said that they would prefer Sinema, while another 72% chose a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema.

preferred US Senator

Senator Sinema also currently trails in hypothetical primary matchups. Against Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego, 47% said that they would support Gallego while 24% said that they would support Sinema. Rep. Greg Stanton, Sinema’s successor in Congress, leads his predecessor by an identical margin in a hypothetical primary match-up. Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman also bests Sinema by 20 points.

“Sinema’s holding out on the reconciliation bill caused a lot of political pressure from left wing of her party, and her numbers were beginning to sour because of it,” said Mike Noble. “she was walking a delicate tight rope, see in numbers now, rope was looking more like fishing wire.”

Filibuster
Sinema’s opposition to reforming the Senate filibuster has angered many progressives. Arizona’s electorate, however, is having a difficult time gauging the Senator’s exact position on the Senate rule. The survey found that 42% of Arizona voters believe Sinema supports the filibuster, while a statistically equivalent 39% are unsure where she stands.

With less than a year until he must face voters once again, results of this latest AZPOP survey could serve as a warning sign for Sen. Mark Kelly, as the freshman Democratic Senator’s favorable numbers are underwater by seven percentage points – he is viewed favorably by 41% of Arizona voters, and unfavorably by 48%.

Unlike Sinema, Kelly’s numbers with partisans fall in line with your typical swing state Democratic Senator: 75% of Democrats view him favorably, and 76% of Republicans view him unfavorably. His low numbers can also be attributed to Independents, with whom he is underwater by 10 points.

“As President Biden faces his lowest approval ratings since taking office, voters are turning their frustration to Democratic candidates,” said Noble. “That’s something Senator Kelly should keep in mind as he faces re-election in one of the country’s closest swing states.”

Favorability of Democratic Politicians

Biden’s Economic Agenda
Nationwide polling has found decent support for President Biden’s key legislative priorities among voters, even as the President himself faces low approvals. Arizona has been no exception to this trend.

In the Grand Canyon State, support for the Build Back Better Act – the President’s economic framework – is six points above water. Forty-seven percent of Arizona voters support the bill while 41% oppose it. Even Independents, who are currently key players in driving Biden’s unpopularity, narrowly support the bill (46% support the bill, 39% oppose it).

The Takeaway
“Both Sinema and Kelly have work to do if they want to hold onto their seats,” said Mike Noble. “For Sinema, she must rebuild some of the bridges she seems to have burned with voters in her own party. For Kelly, he will likely have to navigate a midterm environment with an unpopular Democratic President.”

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Trump Lost. Get Over It!

Time to toss a grenade in the room.

This video is complete bullshit! This is nothing more than playing on people’s fears and anxiety by misleading them down a dead end of misinformation.

Scottsdale Studios put this together and I will find out who paid them. And if taxpayer dollars were used, a complaint will be filed.

I also challenge this amateur video crew to conduct the same interviews in downtown Tempe, downtown Phoenix or even downtown Gilbert.

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors have done NOTHING wrong, unethical or illegal. They did their job.

If you really believe the election was stolen in Maricopa County, do you not think that the former Democrat County Recorder would have won along with two new progressive Democrat Supervisors so they could cover up the steal? If you recall, the first few days after the election, two Republican supervisors were losing. Even the new Republican County Recorder knows the election was not stolen!

The truth is that starting in 2018, Democrat activists outworked Republicans building a machine ready for 2020. They identified and registered thousands of new people and motivated them to vote against Trump.

Why was there no outcry after the 2018 General Election? Why was there no outcry after the 2020 Primary Election? Why now? Where were you people when we lost the US Senate seat in 2018 and 2020? Where were you people when we lost the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Secretary of State and Corporation Commission seats???

Where you lose all credibility – besides not being able to make a logical argument or provide evidence – is when you leave our other Republican candidates behind.

Your fatal flaw is you put all your faith in Donald Trump to be your savior while failing to fight for the other Republican candidates.

Trump lost in Maricopa County because there were more people who didn’t vote for him than did vote for him.

Your problem is not with the Board of Supervisors. It’s not with the new Republican Recorder. Your problem is with the people who got tired of Trump’s bullying, antics, drama, incompetence, tantrums, authoritarianism and performance. Your problem is with the 51,465 freedom-loving, anti-big government people who voted for the Libertarian candidate.

The election is over and sure, there will be an audit but that won’t be enough to break your cognitive dissonance that Trump actually did lose.

If Republicans don’t get focused and back on mission instead of living in the past, this state is going to turn deeper purple and then dark blue in 2022.

Martha McSally Releases a Volley of Political Ads

US Senator Martha McSally released a volley of political ads on YouTube Friday. Here are those ads:

Senator Martha McSally explains Mark Kelly’s intimate relationship with China

Republican Martha McSally appeared on the Hugh Hewitt show earlier this week to discuss her race for the US Senate.

In the interview she discusses fundraising, national security and her opponents intimate entanglements with the Chinese government.

Here’s the video of the interview:

In the Primary race for Republican, Sonoran Alliance endorses Martha McSally.

Kelli Ward: The Lonely Leader of #NeverMartha Republicans

By Calamity June

Ever since Donald J Trump became the Republican Party’s standard bearer, a counter movement known as “#NeverTrump sprung up to stop the freight train of the Trump movement. These “Never Trumpers were not liberal Democrats, however. They were, and are, so-called Republicans, who just can’t stand the fact that President Trump defeated their favored candidate in the Republican primary.

In Arizona, we have a similar phenomenon that is every bit as destructive. “Never Martha” Republicans may well have cost the GOP a critical Senate seat. And thanks to this group of sore losers, we’re stuck with Kyrsten Sinema for six long years.

The #NeverMartha Republicans are led by Kelli Ward, who ran “one of the worst campaigns in recent memory.” For the 2nd political cycle in a row, Ward was overmatched, and soundly defeated in the Republican primary.

But that isn’t necessarily disqualifying. People run and lose all the time. Most candidates who fall short, however, have the decency and the desire to unite the party behind the GOP standard bearer, be it for President, Governor, or in this case, United States Senate.

But Kelli Ward? Not so much.

We had our first clue that Kelli would not be unifying the party when she refused to sign the AZGOP’s Unity Pledge. The vast majority of candidates, including Governor Doug Ducey and Congresswoman Martha McSally, signed the pledge immediately, signaling that they would be 100% supportive of the Republican nominee. But not Kelli Ward. Not only did she refuse to pledge her support for the GOP nominee, she engaged in a physical altercation with Sheriff Joe Arpaio and his staff, as she attempted to strong arm him from the race.

It got even worse after Ward’s terrible primary showing against Martha McSally. After garnering just 28% of the vote in the primary, Ward again refused to endorse McSally. While she eventually sent out a mealy-mouthed “endorsement” of the Republican ticket, her actions made clear her disdain for party unity and her commitment to the #NeverMartha agenda. Despite the primary election being over, her campaign continued to sponsor an attack website on Congresswoman McSally, calling her “Martha McFake,” refusing to take it down until she was called out on social media last week. So for the final weeks of the campaign, as undecided voters looked for information about both candidates, there was a good chance they’d stumble upon an attack website, sponsored by none other than Kelli Ward.

Lest there be any question that Ward was working against Martha McSally, look at her actions just prior to early voting. In a September 26 facebook post, she directed her supporters to vote for the slate below. Nearly every Republican nominee is listed, except one: Martha McSally. Incredibly, Kelli Ward promoted a slate of candidates that excluded the Republican nominee for US Senate, who happened to be running against an avowed socialist with a history of disparaging Arizona.

As we all now know, the GOP lost the US Senate race by less than 2%. It begs the question: how many votes did Kelli Ward and her #NeverMartha minions cost our candidate…and why should anyone trust her to be a unifying voice when her entire history is one of division, backstabbing and negative attacks on fellow Republicans?

They shouldn’t. And they won’t.

Latest Poll Shows Martha McSally Narrowly Leads in US Senate Race

Democratic Surge in Early Ballots has Tightened the Race

PHOENIX (Nov. 5, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has a one-point lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, with 49 percent of the vote. Green candidate Angela Green receives zero percent of the vote, down from one percent since our last poll. Since dropping out, Green no longer has the Election Day Independent voters, who we saw her take more of in a previous OHPI poll(8%).


The survey was conducted November 2 to November 3, 2018 with a sample of 631 respondents qualified as likely voters. All live-callers were used to collect the sample, yielding a +/-3.9% MOE.

“Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends,” said Mike Noble, Chief Pollster and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out out their voters on Election Day.”

Since our last poll, conducted on October 22, the largest change has been the late return of a surge of Democratic ballots in Pima County. This is done by a bloc of Democratic voters who we were unsure would turn out in the general election: Steve Farley Democrats. This group is considered new primary voters who voted for Farley and not David Garcia in the Arizona primary election: OHPI analyzed them in September.

Farley Democrats started returning their ballots en masse within the last two days of early voting, especially standing out in Pima County with a ten-point Democratic advantage of 43 percent. In Maricopa County, the largest county in the state with 60 percent of the electorate, Republicans also have a ten-point lead with 43 percent. This indicates a lagging Hispanic turnout with engaged white Democrats, which is a trend OHPI was looking for and did not see materialize until recently.

The key comes down to Sinema’s voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema’s voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally’s voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County’s voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in the rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats.

A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement. While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them.

Methodology: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline poll. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2, 2018 and November 3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 631 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.9%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

POLL: McSally Maintains Lead Over Sinema

 

Turning Out Her Voters is a Key Factor

PHOENIX (Nov. 1, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI), conducted October 22 to 23, shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has kept her lead over Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, as undecideds break between the candidates.

Since our last poll, McSally has increased to a seven-point lead over Sinema, with 52% of the vote. Sinema holds 45% of the vote, with only 2% left undecided and 1% for Green candidate Angela Green.

“With the hottest race in the country coming to an end, McSally is solidifying her lead over Sinema,” says Chief Pollster and Managing Partner Mike Noble. “The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll. We’ll know come Election Night whether they stick with McSally or swing back to Sinema.”

When looking at favorability, McSally is more highly favored with 54% of the vote, again putting her seven points above Sinema. Sinema is found unfavorable by 50% of voters, compared to McSally’s 44%.

Among age groups, McSally is dominating the older voters. With Republicans over 55 years old, McSally is leading by a wide, 88-point margin of 92%, compared to Sinema’s 4%. However, McSally is losing almost a quarter of younger Republicans, with only a 49-point lead.


Among Independents over 55 years old, Sinema leads by seven points, with 53% compared to McSally’s 46%. Younger Independents are breaking more for McSally, giving her a 38-point lead of 68%, compared to Sinema’s 30%.

Throughout the state, voters have higher levels of support for McSally. In Maricopa County, containing the largest amount of voters in the state, McSally and Sinema are tied with 49% each. McSally leads in both Pima County and rural areas, with 53% and 59% respectively. Sinema trails with 46% in Pima County and 35% in rural areas.

“Considering the historic amount of money spent on this contest, which has been primarily in Pima and Maricopa County, it is ironic that rural Arizonans have tipped the scale in McSally’s direction,” says Data Analyst Noah Rudnick.

OHPI also broke down voting trends, being so close to Election Day. Among those who have already voted, Sinema and McSally are tied at 49% each. For those with an absentee ballot that they have not yet returned, McSally is winning at 52%, with Sinema at 44%. For those who plan to vote at the polls on Election Day, McSally has a commanding 64-29% lead. With Democrats recently looking to narrow the early voting gap of enthusiastic supporters, it is on McSally to turn out her supporters and see her lead maintained by voters who show up on the last day.

“We have been tracking this race for almost a year and are eager to see how it ends up,” says Noble. “Our polls show Arizona voters siding with McSally, and that’s exactly what we expect to see next week.”

Methodology: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 22, 2018 and October 23, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. The partisan advantage was set at +11% GOP, based on returns when finalizing last week. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Guest Opinion: McSally Will Continue The Fight For Your Personal Freedoms

Last month the U.S Food and Drug Administration launched a crackdown on the sale of e-cigarette vaping devices and is ratcheting up pressure on e-cigarette makers. The industry is now facing new challenges as the federal, state, and local governments take new measures to put it under control.

According to the CDC, smoking causes more than 500,000 deaths annually and leads to a plethora of preventable diseases. Since e-cigarettes provide users the ability to control their nicotine consumption, it helps traditional cigarette smokers to gradually kick their nicotine addiction. E-liquids come in varying levels of nicotine, including zero. This can be particularly helpful for long-time smokers who wish to use vapor products to reduce their dependence and transition away from nicotine entirely. These products are specifically designed for adult smokers who wish to live a healthier lifestyle by quitting cigarettes.

Vapor products do not burn tobacco and do not produce smoke, tar, or ash. They only emit vapor. As most e-liquids contain nicotine, they are considered ‘tobacco products’ and regulated as such but these products do not contain any tobacco. E-liquids are only regulated by the FDA because they contain nicotine, which is itself derived from the tobacco plant. These regulations include company registration, product registration, detailed ingredient listings, labeling restrictions, marketing restrictions, and listings of harmful and potentially harmful constituents.

Federal bureaucrats and critics of e-cigarettes are using the myth of a youth vaping “epidemic” to suggest that flavors need to be banned. The truth is, the vaping industry is already working to make sure there are penalties in place for selling vapor products to minors – just like there are for cigarettes, alcohol, and lottery tickets.

As Americans, it is imperative we have the freedom to choose what is best for us and our family. Too often Washington, DC tells us what we can and can’t do. When Congresswoman McSally is elected to the U.S. Senate, she should continue to fight for Arizonans’ personal freedoms, especially for the thousands of adults across our state who need this innovative new technology to live a healthier lifestyle by quitting smoking.

Latest Arizona Political Videos

Wendy Rogers recently released this political ad:

ABC 15 reviews Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction candidates, Kathy Hoffman (D) and Frank Riggs (R).

Martha McSally welcomes Iowa Senator Joni Ernst to Arizona GOP campaign event to talk global security.

Martha McSally welcomes South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham at Arizona GOP event.

Poll: Jan Brewer and Grant Woods

POLL: Former Governor Jan Brewer leads former Attorney General Grant Woods in latest 2020 US Senate Poll


“These two are both ones to watch as jockeying starts for the Arizona Senate race. Whether or not these two run, one thing is for certain – we will not be lacking people lining up on either side of the aisle.” – Chief Pollster and Managing Partner, OHPI

Jan Brewer favored by 9 points.
Of likely Arizona voters, 47% favor Brewer, while 38% find her unfavorable. Arizona’s former governor also has 85% name identification.

Grant Woods not well-known by Arizonans.

Woods is still not well-known, with almost half of people saying they have no opinion of him, at 48%. Of those who have an opinion, he is above water almost two to one.

Brewer is favored most among Republican women.
Among Republican women, Brewer is favored by +62 points. This is much higher than Republican men, at +49 points, providing a possible edge in a Republican primary.

28-point​ split among Democrats on Woods’ name recognition.
Among Democrats’ likely base, voters 54 years old or younger have a 27% favorable rating of Woods. Older Democrats have a 55% positive opinion, which is a 28-point gap. Woods also performs well with older Independents, at 43%.

Methodology: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 22, 2018 and October 23, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

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