Matt Salmon Exits Arizona Gubernatorial Race

Praises “The Best Staff Members, Volunteers, And Activists In Arizona”

Phoenix – Former Congressman Matt Salmon today issued the following statement to announce that he is ending his gubernatorial campaign:

Matt Salmon

“I am so proud of everything that we have been able to accomplish together over the past year. I’ve been blessed with the best staff members, volunteers, and activists in Arizona, and I will forever be grateful for the tireless work and heart-felt passion that they gave to this campaign. Our ideas changed this race for the better – there is no doubt about that.

“Unfortunately, numbers are numbers, and it has become clear to me that the path to a first-place victory is no longer a realistic possibility. Republican primary voters deserve more than having their votes split on August 2nd, and so I am leaving this race for the same reason that I entered it: Because it is what’s best for the people of Arizona.

“I will announce next steps in the coming days, but, for now, I want to reiterate my eternal gratitude for all of the Arizonans who have supported me this year. You are the backbone of this beautiful state, and I am eager to continue working with you in defense of freedom.”

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Karrin Taylor Robson: Governor Ducey must sign SB1165 and SB1138 to preserve girls’ sports and protect children

Statement by Karrin Taylor Robson, Republican candidate for Arizona Governor

March 29, 2022

“Hollywood, the mainstream media and radical Left have gone mad. They would have us believe that there are infinite genders. Or that fair play can include young women competing against much larger and stronger athletes who competed as men only months earlier. During U.S. Senate hearings last week, Joe Biden’s Supreme Court nominee – Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson – even deflected when she was asked if she could define a woman. ‘I’m not a biologist,’ she responded.
 
“Well, I’m not a biologist, either. But I am a mom and – like most Arizonans – I still have my common sense: boys are boys, and girls are girls. The two genders typically compete separately in athletics for an obvious reason. The relative rarity of trans-athletes does not override the fact that every roster spot, scholarship and victory unfairly awarded is one less opportunity for our daughters. 
 
“Likewise, every parent knows that children are still growing physically and emotionally and are particularly susceptible to outside influences and impulsiveness. There are even cases across the country of minors being counseled on gender dysphoria without their parents’ knowledge or consent. SB 1138 appropriately protects Arizona children by limiting gender-reassignment surgeries to adults better able to weigh the consequences of their actions.
 
“Transgender Arizonans deserve respect, and my heart goes out to any young person struggling with these issues. But I also fear our society is seeing a massive increase in children claiming gender dysphoria – up 4000% among girls alone – as young people are influenced by social media, activist counselors and therapists who push life-altering interventions. Arizona families are being torn apart and our children deserve better.
 
“It is time to inject sanity back into this debate. I urge Governor Ducey to preserve girls’ sports and protect Arizona children by signing into law SB 1165 and SB 1138.”

Karrin Taylor Robson unveils plan to build upon Arizona’s history of water stewardship

Today, the Karrin for Arizona campaign released Karrin Taylor Robson’s official policy plan to secure Arizona’s water future.  
 
Taylor Robson’s decades-long experience in managing land and water resources helps inform her plan to build upon Arizona’s exceptional leadership in water stewardship, innovation and planning.
 
“One of the greatest challenges Arizona faces is to ensure we have the water necessary for future generations,” Taylor Robson said. “As Governor, I will bring my decades of experience in land use and my commitment to natural resource stewardship to help position Arizona for the next century. We will protect Arizona consumers, preserve those legacy industries so vital to our economy and defend our Arizona way of life.”
 
The Taylor Robson plan is built upon three key principles:
 

  • Protect Arizona Consumers

Arizonans must have access to a safe, reliable and affordable water supply. Anything less is unacceptable.

  • Preserve Legacy Industries

Legacy industries such as agriculture, ranching, mining and logging are critical drivers of jobs and economic activity, as well as inextricably linked to Arizona’s Western heritage and culture. We must ensure these legacy industries not only survive but thrive in the future.

  • Defend Our Arizona Way of Life

Rugged … independent … self-reliant. The “Arizona way of life” means something different to everyone. What we have in common is our need for water to support our families and community.

READ KARRIN’S WATER PLAN HERE

Press Release: GOP Establishment Could be Trumped in 2024

58% of Arizona Republicans Want the Former President to Make a Comeback
Toplines and crosstabs can be found here
PHOENIX (November 18th, 2021)- Despite the nearly three years until the next presidential election, a new poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) finds that more than half of Arizona Republicans believe Donald Trump should follow in Grover Cleveland’s footsteps and become the first former president in more than a century to seek the office after losing re-election. The poll finds that, should he decide to run, Trump would be a prohibitive favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, running far ahead of any competitor in a crowded field. This survey was the newest edition of OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The AZPOP is a statewide survey that provides regular updates on the moods, opinions, and perceptions of Arizonans on hot topics facing the state. This AZPOP was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Although nearly six in ten Arizona GOP voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, the belief is not shared widely outside of the party. Only 27% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats believe that Trump should run again. On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of Independents and 80% of Democrats think that Donald Trump should “definitely not” make another run at the presidency.
2024 GOP primary chart trump run
“While former President Trump may be the ideal candidate for Republicans, nominating him could spell disaster for the party’s hopes to retake the White House,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “With only a quarter of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting a ‘Trump comeback,’ he may not be a viable candidate in the Grand Canyon State.”Diving deeper into Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. Crowded primary fields have become a trend in presidential politics recently – more than 15 Republicans participated in at least one debate in the 2016 GOP primary, and more than 20 Democrats did so in their party’s 2020 primary – and if the 2024 GOP primary shakes out in a similar way, with multiple Republicans running against Trump, the former president is in a solid position to face whomever the Democrats nominate heading into the 2024 general election. Given the option of nine prominent Republicans (Former President Donald Trump, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie), 48% of Arizona Republicans would support Trump, 16% would vote for DeSantis, and no other candidate receives more than 10% support.
2024 GOP Primary trump v others
“In a fractured primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination,” said Joss. “Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans’ support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about – and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for – is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate.”The survey also found that, in the eyes of Arizona Republicans, Donald Trump Jr. would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. When asked the same 2024 GOP primary question, but replacing Donald Trump for Donald Trump Jr., the younger Trump earned the support of 8% of Republicans overall, and just 14% of Republicans who would support his father in a primary election. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are the candidates who stand to benefit the most without the former president on the ballot, earning 29% and 21% of Republicans’ support, respectively. Ted Cruz (10%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The 2024 GOP Primary becomes murkier without the former president on the ballot, as the share of those unsure whom to support nearly doubles from 9% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 16% Unsure without him.
2024 GOP Primary Trump Jr.
“As Don Jr.’s performance shows, there is something about former President Trump that Arizona Republicans like more than just the name Donald Trump,” said Joss.
###Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. The sample of registered voters also contained a subsample of 252 respondents who self-identified as being registered members of the Republican party. This subsample has a MoE +/- 6.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Governor Ducey: Protecting Arizona Voters

Arizona’s election laws make it easy to vote — but hard to cheat. Under Governor Doug Ducey’s leadership, Arizona continues to prioritize election integrity to further strengthen the process that makes our representative government a beacon of democracy.

Public confidence in voting is critical — it is the foundation upon which all our elections are built. This year, a number of election-related bills passed by the Arizona Legislature and signed by Governor Ducey send a clear message: every Arizonan eligible to vote will be able to vote, each of those votes will be counted and no one will be allowed to interfere with our elections.

In May, Governor Ducey signed Senate Bill 1485, which renames Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL) to Active Early Voting List (AEVL). Under this legislation, if a voter on the AEVL actively votes by mail, they will continue to receive an early ballot. If a voter on the AEVL does not return at least one early ballot over the course of four years (two consecutive primary elections and general elections, and any municipal elections that precede them) the voter will be sent a postcard asking if they still want to receive an early ballot.

The county recorder may additionally reach the voter by telephone, text message, or e-mail. Whether a voter opts to remain on the AEVL or not, they remain eligible to request an early ballot or vote in-person, ensuring no voter is ever disenfranchised.
The Governor’s signing of SB 1485 is just one of the many actions he took during the 2021 legislative session to protect Arizona voters. Another is the signing of HB 2569, which prohibits elections officials from using private funding in our elections. And there are many more: 

Signing of SB 1002 – early voting envelopes; party affiliation (Ugenti-Rita)
Specifies that the early ballot envelope must also not reveal the voter’s political party affiliation.

Signing ofSB 1003 – early voting; signature required; notice (Ugenti-Rita)
Requires the county recorder or other officer in charge of elections to make reasonable efforts to contact the elector and advise them of the missing signature on an early ballot envelope.

Signing ofSB 1492 – election law amendments (Shope)
Makes various changes to statute relating to elections including modifications of various deadlines.

Signing of SB 1497 – ballot measures; proposition 105; disclosure (Ugenti-Rita)
Requires for initiatives and referendums that a Proposition 105 notice be printed by the Secretary of State in the publicity pamphlet, in bold-faced type immediately below the Legislative Council analysis of the initiative or referendum.

Signing ofSB 1530 – early ballots; instructions; undeliverable (Mesnard)
Makes a simple change regarding the envelopes that early ballots are mailed in, requiring the envelope that the ballot is mailed in state “If the addressee does not reside at this address, mark the unopened envelope “Return to Sender” and deposit it in the United States Mail.”

Signing ofSB 1714 – campaign expenditures; out of state; disclosures (Mesnard)
Makes several changes and additions to statute regarding campaign expenditures for out-of-state contributors as it relates to advertisements.

Signing ofHB 2054 – voter registration database; death records (Kaiser)
Requires, rather than allows, the Secretary of State to compare the death records transmitted annually by the Arizona Department of Health Services with the Statewide Voter Registration Database.

Signing of HB 2307 – voting equipment; overvote notice (Kavanagh)
Requires the county board of supervisors, if the voting equipment used for an election rejects over-voted ballots or ballots containing irregularities, to provide a written notice on or near the voting equipment in clear view that advises if the voter chooses to override the overvoted office or measure or any other ballot irregularity, then the voter’s vote for that office or measure will not be tallied.

Signing ofHB 2308 – recall petitions and elections; revisions (Kavanagh)
Makes a number of changes to recall petition submissions and circulations as well as to recall elections. The bill creates consistency between initiatives, referenda and recalls. 

Signing ofHB 2359 – election equipment; access; locks (Kavanagh)
Requires voting machines and electronic pollbooks containing data ports, plugs, doors, and other methods of physical or electronic access to be secured in a manner preventing unauthorized access to the voting machine or electronic pollbook during an election.

Veto ofHB 2360 – committee; driver license voter registrations (Kavanagh)
Would have directed the Secretary of State to maintain and operate the driver license voter registration system with a committee of county recorders by December 31, 2021.

Signing of HB 2362 – elections; ballot privacy folders (Kavanagh)
Requires an election board judge to give a ballot privacy folder to a qualified elector along with the elector’s ballot when voting at a polling location. Specifies that a voter is not required to accept or use a ballot privacy folder.

Signing of HB 2363 – municipal election officers; certification training (Kavanagh)
Allows a city or town to train its own election employees if the training program is approved by the Secretary of State.

Signing of HB 2364 – election pamphlet submittals; identification required (Kavanagh)
Adds to the identification requirements for informational and publicity pamphlet submissions for school district override, initiative and bond elections.

Signing of HB 2569 – elections; private funding; prohibition (Hoffman)
Prohibits the state, city, town, county, school district or other public body that conducts or administers elections from receiving or expending private monies for preparing, administering or conducting an election, including registering voters.

Signing ofHB 2794 – election deadlines; modifications prohibited (Hoffman)
Stipulates that a political subdivision, agent or officer of this state or any other governmental entity may not alter or agree to alter any deadline, submittal date, filing date or other election-related date that is provided for in statute.

Signing ofHB 2905– early ballots; request required (Hoffman) 
Prohibits a county recorder, city or town clerk or other election officer from delivering or mailing an early ballot to a person who has not requested an early ballot for that election or a person who is not on the active early voting list. Any violation by an election officer will be classified as a class 5 felony. 

Strengthening our electoral system was not the only legislation enacted that will benefit people all across the state. Arizona is banning critical race theory in schools, implementing historic tax reform, protecting education freedom and more. Details on the reform-centered bills signed into law by the Governor can be found HERE.

America Needs Conservative Journalists!

Journalism is among America’s least trusted professions. I know, that’s not a big surprise…

In fact, when asked if they trust the honest and ethical standards of the media, Americans put journalists below most professions, and trust them only slightly more than car salespeople and Congressmen.

Now, more than ever, conservative journalists must use their voices to report the facts and speak over all of the lies. 

If you’re interested in a career in journalism, now is the time to be proactive. 

The Leadership Institute’s annual Journalism Career School will help you succeed in journalism by teaching you the skills to succeed and build your network of conservative journalists. 

Click the link below to learn more and register!
What: Journalism Career School
When: Thursday – Friday, September 17 – 18 | 9:00 AM – 5:30 PM EDT
Where: Online
How to register: Sign up by September 14 for $40!
Register here
Whether you aspire to be on television or pursue a career as a writer, the Journalism Career School will give you the tools to succeed.

You will learn how to:Traditional Journalism: You will learn how to get a job with a publication, build and use contacts in media, and write stories that get you noticed.Broadcast Journalism: You will learn how to get yourself on camera, as well as practice and analyze your television techniques in LI’s studios.Watchdog and Citizen Journalism: You will learn how to build your following online, as well as how to create your own publication and videos that get you noticed!Register today so you don’t miss out!

2020 AZ Primary Early Vote Wrap-Up

What happened and what it means for November

With the primary election tomorrow, we’re giving you our takeaways from the early vote data. There are still tens of thousands of ballots to be cast on Election Day, but the ballots mailed back thus far paint an interesting picture.

Here are the high-level highlights you need to know going into Tuesday:

  • 1,063,828 Ballots Cast
  • 2,316,329 Ballots Requested
  • 45.6% Return Rate
  • 26.7% Turnout
  • 0.9% Democrat Ballot Advantage (representing 9,900 ballots) 

Interesting takeaways: 

  1. Turnout is high: We have seen more overall ballots returned than ever before in a primary election – 1,063,828. As a comparison, we saw about 835,000 ballots returned in 2018 and 682,000 in 2016. While we don’t know yet if these are people who would usually drop their ballots off, we are on pace to hit at least 30% overall turnout.
  2. Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout: While we don’t know how Election Day turnout will fare, we are on pace to see something that we haven’t seen in Arizona in at least the last two decades – more Democratic ballots cast than Republican ballots. There is some hope for Republicans, though, Democrats have 1.4% more of their ballots returned. That 1.4% represents about 15,000 Republican ballots.   
  3. More Independents have cast Democratic ballots than Republican: In Arizona, Independents can choose to vote in either party primary or cast a non-partisan ballot. This year, they have cast a total of 117,845 ballots and about 8,800 more in Democratic primaries than Republican. As a comparison, in the previous two cycles Independents have cast between 10,000 and 12,000 more ballots in Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries.

While primary turnout does not specifically correlate to general election performance, Republicans need a big Election Day performance to mitigate some of these troubling numbers. Democrats have not traditionally had a lot of primary elections – which has driven down their turnout in the last two cycles – but high turnout this year is occurring in places with and without contested primaries on the Democratic side. 
We will have at least one additional update from Maricopa and Pima counties today that can be seen here. Stay tuned for a full debrief post-election to see if these trends from mailed early ballots held or if the trends simply represented Democratic voters mailing in versus dropping off on Election Day because of COVID concerns.

*Data is current as of 8/02/20 at 6:00pm*
Looking ahead to the General Election
 As mentioned before, we decided to share our entire primary ballot tracker with the public but will be providing general election early vote tracking via paid subscription only. We apologize for any confusion we may have caused in our previous email regarding the general election subscription model. We will continue to release basic, high level numbers publicly for the general election (total ballots and party breakdown, statewide only) but for those looking for greater detail and analysis, we will be offering two subscription levels.

Level One will provide full current year breakdowns similar to what is currently shown on our primary election tracker.

Level Two will have comparison data for the previous two cycles and will add in additional filtration features.

If you have any questions or would like to subscribe for the general election tracker, you can contact Data Orbital here

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL: 

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 

Rep. Petersen Introduces Bill to Stop Rollovers of K-12 Funding

STATE CAPITOL, PHOENIX – House Majority Leader Warren Petersen (R-12) issued a statement today regarding legislation he has introduced for the 2020 session that would amend the state constitution to prohibit K-12 rollovers, ensuring that education funding is delivered to our schools on time, and in full. A rollover represents a deferral of the payment from the year in which the obligation was incurred to the next fiscal year.

Rep Warren Petersen
Rep. Warren Petersen (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“In the mid-2000s, Arizona implemented budget gimmicks like K-12 rollovers to counter poor fiscal decisions and a faltering economy,” said Representative Petersen.  “Fortunately, under conservative leadership, Arizona has righted its fiscal ship and the economy is strong.  But we need to be prepared for a future downturn.  Arizona has taken some excellent decisions like paying off debt and amassing a billion-dollar rainy day fund.  Now it’s time to eliminate the K-12 rollover and prevent future utilization.  A statutory change would be too easy to go around.  That’s why I have introduced a constitutional amendment to prohibit the deferment of K-12 payments from one budget year to the next.”

Latest Poll Shows Martha McSally Narrowly Leads in US Senate Race

Democratic Surge in Early Ballots has Tightened the Race

PHOENIX (Nov. 5, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has a one-point lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, with 49 percent of the vote. Green candidate Angela Green receives zero percent of the vote, down from one percent since our last poll. Since dropping out, Green no longer has the Election Day Independent voters, who we saw her take more of in a previous OHPI poll(8%).


The survey was conducted November 2 to November 3, 2018 with a sample of 631 respondents qualified as likely voters. All live-callers were used to collect the sample, yielding a +/-3.9% MOE.

“Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends,” said Mike Noble, Chief Pollster and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out out their voters on Election Day.”

Since our last poll, conducted on October 22, the largest change has been the late return of a surge of Democratic ballots in Pima County. This is done by a bloc of Democratic voters who we were unsure would turn out in the general election: Steve Farley Democrats. This group is considered new primary voters who voted for Farley and not David Garcia in the Arizona primary election: OHPI analyzed them in September.

Farley Democrats started returning their ballots en masse within the last two days of early voting, especially standing out in Pima County with a ten-point Democratic advantage of 43 percent. In Maricopa County, the largest county in the state with 60 percent of the electorate, Republicans also have a ten-point lead with 43 percent. This indicates a lagging Hispanic turnout with engaged white Democrats, which is a trend OHPI was looking for and did not see materialize until recently.

The key comes down to Sinema’s voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema’s voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally’s voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County’s voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in the rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats.

A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement. While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them.

Methodology: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline poll. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2, 2018 and November 3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 631 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.9%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Data Orbital: Arizona Early Voting Reveals Four Major Trends

Phoenix, AZ (October 31, 2018) With only 6 days remaining until Election Day, over 1.2 million ballots have already been cast in Arizona. Shattering past midterm election turnout figures for the state, these early ballot returns reveal major trends that will continue to play out through Election Day.

The major takeaways for current ballot returns are:

  1. Republican ballot advantage far ahead of 2016: On this same day in 2016 – a Presidential election year – 1,228,936 ballots had been returned, with the Republican Ballot Advantage being +6.4% percentage points, with a margin of 79,180 ballots. With a larger ballot advantage of +9.4% this cycle and a margin of 114,512 ballots, the statewide ballot advantage is likely to see only minor shifts, barring any unprecedented Democratic return numbers in the final week.
  2. Democratic voters holding their ballots longer than 2016: Democratic voters are holding onto their ballots longer than in 2016, averaging 12.44 days compared to 11.36 days in 2016, but shorter than their 13.26 day average in 2014. Meanwhile, Republican voters aren’t holding onto their ballots as long, sitting at an average of 11.76 days compared with 11.97 days in 2016 and 13.48 in 2014.
  3. Older voters far outnumber young and middle-aged voters: Voter ages 55+ outnumber those under 55 by a 2:1 margin.
  4. New voters spilt among parties: Republicans hold a 34.04% share of the 88,700 new voters who have cast a ballot, compared to 34.31% Democrats and 29.75% Independents.

Massive Turnout

According to analysis of AZ-08 special election results, new Arizona voter registration figures, and various pundits, 2018 was projected to be a “blue wave” year.  However, as Arizona has historically cast almost two-thirds of its ballots early, a blue wave scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.  Gaming out the remainder of early ballot returns, any potential downward shift in the Republican ballot advantage will be offset by their 100,000+ ballot advantage.

Looking at the number of ballots requested, Democrats have seen a higher request rate from their registered voters at 78.9% compared to 77.4% of registered Republicans. This two-point spread is up 1.1 percentage points from the 2016 cycle. However, as we saw in 2016, this disparity is minimized by Arizona having more registered Republicans than Democrats. Turning to returned ballots, Republicans currently hold a statewide turnout percentage of 36.7% compared to 32.0% of registered Democratic voters.

New and Frequent Voters

With every election cycle, there is a push to get new voters* to mail in ballots and show up on Election Day.  So far, new voters are only making up 7.15% of total returned ballots. With just fewer than 20% of these 88,700 voters being under the age of 24, a wave of freshly registered young voters does not appear to be returning ballots. Across Arizona’s Congressional Districts, the top concentration of these new voters is in AZ-08 and AZ-05, at 14.93% and 14.54% of the 88,700 voters. At the other end of the spectrum, voters who have voted in all of the past four general elections are a staggering 584,100 of returned ballots and are mostly Republican, with the GOP having a 48.57% share.

*New voters are voters who have not voted in any of the last four general elections.

Election Day Voters

With today being the last day for voters to turn in early ballots and the last major early ballot reports coming out by the end of the week, the focus is turning to Election Day voters. Registered voters who have not requested an early ballot total about 1.2 million. Republicans still hold the advantage here with 27.27% of these voters being registered Republicans. If we look specifically at voters who are likely to turn out based on their general election voting history, the Republican advantage grows to +23.5 percentage points as they have a 50.88% share of these 122,637 voters who have voted in all of the previous four elections. The highest concentration of these voters is in Arizona’s Congressional Districts 02 and 04, with just over 11,000 of these highly likely voters being registered Republicans.

The possibility of early ballots being returned at polling places on November 6th also presents yet another large group of potential voters, totaling just above 1.4 million. These remaining ballots have a slight Democratic advantage, with Democrats holding a 32.95% share compared to a Republican 32.04% share. Looking just at highly likely voters who have voted in three or four of the past four general elections, this advantage flips with the Republican advantage growing to 11.85 points at a 43.96% share of 436,670 ballots.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: “We started this year anticipating a blue wave scenario with pundits predicting Republicans would have a 4-5% ballot advantage.  But now, as we look at early voting, it’s very clear that this blue wave scenario just isn’t happening.  Total turnout numbers are only slightly below 2016, which is even more instructive than the current Republican ballot advantage.  The record turnout is causing the total raw Republican ballot advantage to be much higher than both 2016 and 2014, giving Republicans a strong advantage going into election day.  Since they make up a little more than 50% of likely Election Day voters, it is going to be very difficult for Democrats to turn that advantage around.”

Overall, we are looking at a record-turnout election where both Republicans and Democrats are energized to vote.  Over the next six days, we will continue to track returns and trends to better predict election day results.  Follow the daily updates at dataorbital.com.