Results of Tight Races in Arizona Midterms Correlate with OHPI Polling

In Battleground Arizona, OHPI’s AZPOP Poll of Record Comes Close to Results of Top Races

AZPOP Poll of Record toplines and crosstabs can be found here  
PHOENIX (December 15th, 2022)- As yet another election cycle of serving the State of Arizona with nonpartisan public opinion polling comes to a close, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) compared the final results of several of Arizona’s races that kept us all on the edge of our seat to the final Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of the 2022 Election season. U.S. Senate RaceThe final AZPOP 2022 poll, released one week before Election Day, showed Mark Kelly earning the support of 48% of likely voters to Blake Masters’ 46%. The poll had a margin of error of +/-4.0%, meaning that the poll expected Kelly’s support to fall between 44% and 52%, and Masters’ support to fall between 42% and 50%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office certified results show both candidates well within the OHPI final range, with Mark Kelly at 51.4%, retaining his seat in Arizona’s U.S. Senator, and Blake Masters 46.5%. OHPI’s results more accurately reflected the race than the final polling average on RealClearPolitics. “The Senate race was incredibly close, although, with hundreds of millions of dollars spent on the contest, the 3% of undecided voters predominantly broke for Kelly, breaking Masters’ chances of unseating Kelly,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.
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Governor RaceIn the neck and neck race for Arizona Governor, the final AZPOP election poll put Katie Hobbs (47%) and Kari Lake (49%) at a within-the-margin tie, separated by just 2 points. With a margin of error of +/-4.0%, the poll expected Katie Hobbs’ support to fall between 43% and 51%, and Kari Lake’s support to fall between 45% and 53%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office certified results show both candidates well within the OHPI final range, with Katie Hobbs claiming a slim victory at 50.3% and Kari Lake at 49.6%. Once again, OHPI’s results more accurately reflected the race than the final polling average on RealClearPolitics.
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“With Arizona being a crucial battleground state notoriously difficult to poll, it is with great honor to continue to serve our home base with trusted, nonpartisan data,” said Noble. “As prominent national pollsters wonder what went wrong with their state polling in these top races, I’m pleased our polling and turnout models most accurately reflected Arizona’s electorate.”Secretary of State RaceThe final AZPOP 2022 poll showed Adrian Fontes earning the support of 48% of likely voters to Mark Finchem’s 42% in the race to replace Katie Hobbs as Secretary of State. With a +/-4.0% margin of error, the poll expected Fontes’ support to fall between 44% and 52%, and Finchem’s support to fall between 38% and 46%. With double-digit undecideds at the time of the poll, OHPI was still able to provide an accurate read on the race. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office certified results show Adrian Fontes winning this race with 52.4% to Mark Finchem’s 47.6% – both just outside the poll’s margin of error due to that 10% of undecided voters at the time of the poll.“What is interesting about the SOS race is that it went from Finchem with an edge just before Early Voting kicked off to Fontes taking a lead and holding his lead as voters started to pay more attention to the race and the issue platforms of the respective candidates,” said Noble.
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Attorney General RaceIn the Attorney General race, the final AZPOP election poll put Kris Mayes (45%) and Abe Hamadeh (42%) at a within-the-margin tie, separated by just 3 points. With 11% of likely voters undecided at the time of the poll, it was clear this race could go either way. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office certified results shows the two candidates at a near-exact tie with only 511 votes carrying Mayes’ lead, meaning this race, per law, is headed into recount.
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“If this election speaks to anything, it speaks to the impact of every single vote,” said Noble. “Polling gives us a snapshot in time of early support that tells the story of the momentum of a race, but the actuals all come down to turnout.” The wrap-up of Arizona’s 2022 midterm election exemplifies the value of having a pollster that understands the nuances of elections and the local electorate – not one who breezes in from out of state when election season rolls around. This midterm showed that knowledge of the political landscape combined with sound methodology is vital for producing accurate results and insights into how to continuously improve the world of polling.
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Methodology: The referenced AZPOP poll was conducted by OH Predictive Insights as 100% Phone based, Live Caller, and peer-to-peer text. The survey was completed from October 24th to October 26th, 2022, from an Arizona Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the likely voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and educational attainment according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State office and recent Census data. The sample size was 600 likely voters in Arizona with a MoE of +/- 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Christine Jones & Tony Cani on KJZZ’s The Show

Former gubernatorial and congressional candidate, Christine Jones, along with Democrat strategist Tony Cani, joined The Show to discuss post-primary election results and what the winners and losers do now heading into the General Election.

Chuck Coughlin Discusses Arizona Primary Election Results

Arizona HighGround President & CEO, Chuck Coughlin, was a recent guest on KJZZ’s The Show discussing Primary Election results and Republican victory prospects heading into the November General Election.

Sitting down with KJZZ reporters, Steve Goldstein and Lauren Gilger, Coughlin provided a great assessment of the “Nightmare” or “Doomsday Slate” and the possible outcome for Trump-slate Republicans.

Coughlin did not express much confidence that candidates like Kari Lake and Mark Finchem can pivot back to the center to appeal to a broader General Election electorate. And, while the Arizona Republican Party is in a major civil war with itself, Democrats have an opportunity to pick up statewide seats in November.

Debunked! Mediocre Republic movie reviewer gets all science-y on Kari Lake

Bill Goodykoontz of the Arizona Republic wishes the world to know that he hates Donald Trump.

A leftist political theorist trapped in the body of a mediocre newspaper movie reviewer, Goodykoontz recently wrote about Queen Elizabeth’s coronavirus speech by whining about how they got elegant, old Ms. Windsor while we got the Bad Orange Man. He “reviews” White House COVID press conferences as a projection of his self-image as a Jim Acosta fellow traveler:

“Keep reporting,” he urges the White House press corps. “Keep telling the truth. Keep grinding out stories that are important and accurate and let the criticism fall where it may.”

So brave. So, so very brave. Mind-numbingly wrong for nearly three years (and, in most instances, still counting) about “Russian collusion” and consumed with getting their daily quota of gotchas, they are nonetheless so very brave. In Goody’s eyes. He is CNN’s Brian Stelter if Brian Stelter also had George Stephanopoulos-ish boyish bangs and performed his daily dance of Trump-hate in the desert.

He is a mediocre movie review who loathes Donald Trump. And he so very much wants you to know that. Not the “mediocre” part, but you know what I mean.

But Goody is not of the WH Press Corps, so he must find local Trumpishness to ferret out. He’s zeroed in recently on Fox 10 news anchor Kari Lake. From time to time, Lake has indicated, usually on Twitter, that she may hold some conservative feelings. This drives Goody (and others in the Republic’s dwindling stable of lefties) into paroxysms of rage. They must make her stopp… er, stop.

Goody discovered that Lake had recommended her Twitter followers read about the two California doctors who created a 50-minute YouTube video that she called “one of the most HONEST COVID-19 briefings I have heard to date.” Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi argued against the strict applications of sheltering in place.

Goody scolded Lake for recommending people hear what the two doctors had to say. “I would also advise against members of the media offering tacit support for debunked theories.”

YouTube now (in)famously banished the video “for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines,” which apparently forbid using one’s experiences on the frontlines of the fight against the COVID-19 virus to take issue with prevailing government diktats.

The American Academy of Emergency Medicine and the American College of Emergency Physicians jointly “and emphatically” issued a condemnation of arguments presented by the two doctors.

The statement was frankly snarky, suggesting they were in it for the money: “As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests…”).

Now, I don’t know if ultimately this economy-wrecking practice of sheltering in place will save us from the virus in the long run. Maybe it will. Maybe the large, inflexible organizations like the AAEM and the ACEP will be proved right. But, then, I can’t help noticing that the Swedes, whose social views leftists usually claim to admire, seem to be siding with the California docs on this one. And they seem to be having some success at it, too. Is Sweden, too, grasping irrationally at “debunked theories?”

Which ever, Goody contends that the AAEM and the ACEP jointly “debunked” the Californians. I don’t think that word means what he thinks it means.

Their statement spoke harshly of the doctors’ views, which they said were “inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19.” But nowhere did it say how or why. Common usage of “to debunk” is to “expose the sham or falseness” of something. The two doc-orgs didn’t do that.

All we have here are two doctors citing accumulated open-source data to conclude that sheltering in place is counter to good health. They may be wrong in those conclusions, but we don’t know why from the institutional reaction to them. All we have on the other side is large organizations saying little more than “shut up.”

And we have a journalist (no doubt a lot of them) playing Greek chorus and adding that “you shut up, too, Kari Lake!”

That’s the part that really gnaws at me. Goody self-righteously scolds Lake: “Haven’t theories like this cost us enough already? Let’s stick to the facts, please.”

Oh! Facts! Stand back, people. Goody’s got… science on his side!

But what “facts” are they? When do our movie-reviewer fact-mongers think the doors actually should open? Biden adviser and Obamacare designer Zeke Emanuel argues that we “have no choice” but to keep these strict social-distancing measures in place for 18 months. Would it be anti-science-y even to suggest that they end sooner? If so, when, Bill?

And, you know, it’s not like those powerful, institutional voices dictating shelter-in-place policy haven’t already been proved wrong on a point or two.

In maybe the most pompous declaration ever uttered by a mediocre movie reviewer, Goody says of Lake that “I would also advise against members of the media offering tacit support for debunked theories.”

Like, oh… Russian collusion?

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