PR: Goddard Leads All Republicans for Governor; Martin Strongest GOP Hopeful

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wed. October 21, 2009

Democrat Goddard Leads All Republicans for Governor; Martin Strongest GOP Hopeful

GOP Gubernatorial Primary Shaping Up

PHOENIX- Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard outpolls all potential GOP candidates for governor by double digits – except State Treasurer Dean Martin, according to a new poll released today by the Arizona Chapter of NAIOP, which represents commercial real estate development.

Goddard, who is widely expected to be the Democrat candidate for Governor in Arizona in 2010, has a 15 point lead on current Arizona Republican Governor Jan Brewer, 48.3% to 32.8%, according to a poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 2 through Oct. 8 which has a margin of error of 4%.

The potential Democrat nominee also handily beats potential GOP candidates including former Governor J. Fife Symington (53.8% to 28.8%); Secretary of State Ken Bennett (46.2% to 31.8%) and Tucson Attorney and former Arizona Regent John Munger (46.7% to 28%).

However, against current Republican State Treasurer Dean Martin, Goddard’s margin of victory drops to less than 7 points, 42.8% for Goddard to 36.3% for Martin.

The poll was conducted before former Governor Fife Symington announced he would not be a candidate for Governor.

What appears to be hurting Republicans in the general election match-up against Terry Goddard is the fact that 60% of respondents feel the state is on the wrong track and only 24.1% say the state is on the right track.

While many political pundits say 2010 may be a bad year for Republicans in the state of Arizona, the polling data suggests otherwise.

When voters were asked generically what party they would vote for in 2010 for governor, Republicans came out on top, 35.3% to 29.3% for Democrats, with 9.8% for an independent, 8.5% other party, and 17% undecided.

Registered Republicans were also asked for their preference in the Republican primary. The results were: 16.2% for former Arizona Governor Fife Symington; 15.8% for current Governor Jan Brewer; 14.3% for current Arizona Treasurer Dean Martin; 8.5% for Arizona businessman Robert Graham; 6.6% for current Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker; 5.9% for current Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett; 3.3% for attorney and former Arizona Regent John Munger; 1.5% for former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters; and 27.9% either none, undecided, or refused.

As a follow up, these same voters were asked “If your first choice were not running for Governor, who would your second choice be for the Republican nomination for Arizona Governor?” The results were: 11.8% for current Governor Jan Brewer; 11.0% for current Arizona Treasurer Dean Martin; 7.0% for current Secretary of State Ken Bennett; 6.3% for former Arizona Governor Fife Symington; 4.4% for attorney and former Arizona Regent John Munger; 3.3% for Arizona businessman Robert Graham; 3.3% for former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters; 2.9% for current Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker; and 50.1% either none, undecided, or refused.

When Republican likely voters are given a first and second choice among eight potential Republican candidates, Governor Brewer pulls the most combined support closely followed by State Treasurer Dean Martin.

NAIOP is a national association of 15,000+ members and an extensive network of 58 chapters that represent the interests of developers and owners throughout North America. The Arizona Chapter of NAIOP is the trade association representing the commercial real estate industry in Arizona. With over 630 members, NAIOP-AZ is currently the 8th largest chapter in the nation.


Comments

  1. Jefferson Smith says

    Wow, I saw some of this in Sunday’s Arizona Republic but these results are devastating to Gov. Brewer. One in seven Republicans pick her as the standard-bearer? She’s the incumbent! Jeez.

    That “hell hole” she was talking about is apparently where her political prospects languish.

    She’s weakness defined.

    Vernon who? And this poll was done during his big media reveal.

    What about the Great ‘South of the Gila’ Hope?

    “Where in Arizona is John Munger?‏” Indeed.

    Along with Mary Peters, Munger theoretically has negative support based on the margin of error!

    At least Treasurer Dean Martin gets within striking distance of Terry Goddard while the rest are way, way back.

    It’s clearly a two person Republican race for governor between Brewer and Martin.

    It’ll be interesting to see how much further Brewer’s numbers sink once there is a concerted campaign against her nomination.

  2. Veritas Vincit says

    To anyone familiar with statistical methods, a survey of 600 with a M.O. of +/-4% is virtually meaningless.

    Define “likely voters” and what were the parameters of the sample selected?

    A near duplicate survey could be run only slightly altering the questions and the results would be very different.

    Other than that, crappy polling work makes good fodder for the Arizona Repugnant.

  3. Brewlitano says

    How could Gov. Brewer even consider running? She’s alienated every legislator. Can she win the state and lose 30 legislative districts? That would be a real feat!

  4. Sad to see Jan Brewer who, in an earlier age, was a great legislator get “made over” in the image of our Professional P.O.W. senior Senator by Up-Chuck Coughlin!

    Hopefully, next year’s primaries will once again return genuine Republicans to candidacy slots!

  5. I would love to see a “poll” sampling voter’s views on the character and ethics of our candidates for state and Maricopa County offices. I wonder if the shenanigans we are subjected to in Maricopa County are having a boil-over impact on over-all voter attitudes. I for one am tired of what seems to be an utter breakdown of the concepts of character and ethics at all levels. Politics is not supposed to be about the wellbeing of the candidates at the expense of the electorate. What do voters want in their candidates? This seems to be the root issue for the coming elections, especially in Maricopa County assuming Andrews Thomas leaves as county attorney to run for AG. What are your thoughts?

  6. East Valley PC says

    Bill MOntgomery has announced an Exploratory Committee for County Attorney. I remember form his run for Attorney General that he is a West Point graduate. He is a man of honor who can carry the office and the Republican Party forward. I understand he has already started making the rounds of the various Republican Clubs and legislative meetings.

  7. Symington is in the lead? lol.

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