POLL: Paul Babeu, Early Favorite in Congressional Race AZ01


Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claimed a strong lead among likely Republican primary voters for the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona’s 1st District, said consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 349 likely Republican primary voters, 27.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. State House Speaker Andy Tobin trailed a distant second in the poll of potential Republican primary candidates with 5.1%.

Also polled were businessman Gaither Martin (4.6%), and State Representative Adam Kwasman and Doug McKee, who each received 2.1% of respondents’ votes. And with no announced Republican candidate in the race, 58.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2014 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. Nearly one-third of voters (29.2%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 28% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues which would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.9%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 9.2% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 8.6% of respondents. And 4.9% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue which would determine their vote next year. Just 7.2% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on June 26, 2013, from a sample of registered Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 349 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 5.20%.