Phoenix, Tucson, Recall Elections: Predictions Anyone?

Here’s your chance to make predictions regarding the outcome of the elections. (Please keep it civil!)


  1. Mesa Voter says

    Lewis by 4

  2. Lewis by 5, with an edge even among Republicans.

  3. Brad Colonial says

    Pearce by 3, Wes Gullet by 2

  4. Phillip the Great says

    Russell by 5 pts.

  5. We know Pearce’s supporters will turn out, what we don’t know is what kind of support Lewis will actually get on election day. I think if turnout is low, Pearce wins. If turnout is high, Lewis wins. Pearce won in 2010 with a voter turnout just over 31,000. According to azcentral, so far, only half of the 28,000 early ballots in LD 18 have been returned. If there isn’t much of a walk-up vote, then I think Pearce will win.

  6. Lewis by 900 votes.

  7. Lewis wins then Biggs becomes State President. Pearce is a teddy bear against tough Biggs. Pearce will be paid double/triple his current salary as a lobbyist writing the bills and helping Biggs pass through the Senate.

    Lewis will be a pariah for 12 months in a Republican-controlled legislature.

    The progressives skewed their new gerrymandered maps PURPOSELY so that Lewis would have to run against their #1 Dem, ASU’s Schipara in the ASU coorridor-85K students and 50k staff. The Dems will 100% vote for party favorite Schipara and Lewis won’t be in a Mormon corridor. Used and abused by the uber left just for the Recall.

    You sleep with dogs, you get fleas.

    Meanwhile, the marxist retreads are recalling Pearce’s challenger next year-Crandall. Unknown and squishy Open Borders Crandall will be recalled easily so Pearce will run without any opponents. Sweet.

  8. Marty Smith says

    Lewis wins. Pearce runs again next year in the general and wins

    Lewis will be sitting in the broom closet all next year. Senate republicans won’t have anything to do with him

    jorgensen will register as a democrat and go on weight watchers

    Snow will continue to pretend he is a republican while working hand in hand with alinsky trained union bosses and open borders activists

    Selleck will have a good laugh that nobody cared that a LD18 Democrat party official campaigned for and voted for a republican

  9. Only Chad Snow and Randy Parraz will win with the Recall. Snow gets more illedals filing for more Workmen Comp (they can do) or granting Amnesty. Always about the money-Snow.

  10. Russell Pearce will win today. It will be shocking once again. I hope that the $150 that my wife & I gave his campaign last week will help put him over the top. But I wouldn’t mind at all to have donated to help him win in a landslide either.

  11. And for the sake of keeping things civil, Jerry Lewis is a complete snake for being a pawn in this recall election. He will now have no friends on either side. And he loses his dignity & honor for taking on the Senate President who is supposed to be from his same political party. If Lewis would have ran as a Democrat, at least he’d have 1 percent of self respect left.

    • If Lewis wins, the R’s will have to at least play somewhat nice with him. Other players like Gould and Crandall are known to break with party lines from time-to-time. If they need 2/3’s for a particular issue (like removing additional IRC members) and can’t get another R to play along, they will need Lewis’ vote.

      Not that I really think it will come to that, but I don’t think he will be a total pariah, just in case they need him later.

    • Marty Smith says

      Chad and his ilk will continue to spin the story, but the simple fact remains. Lewis could not have beaten Pearce in a General election. These people only have 2 year terms. Why not let Republicans deal with Republicans?

      Lewis is nothing more than a puppet for the progressive Left. They could give a flying you know what about Lewis. The goal was simply to beat Pearce.

      It is just plain sad to see how easily Randy and Chad could blow on the flute, and the little blind republican mice just followed their new master. Zero loyality to their own party whatsoever

      • Zach Henry says

        I think primaries do nothing but damage the whole process. As a result of primaries we always get stuck with the most extreme R vs. the most extreme D. Moderates, who are more in line with the majority of constituents, never stand a chance. We’d be better off with completely open primaries (where everyone could vote) followed by a runoff.

  12. Pearce by 4%. Anyone who has seen Lewis before a crowd (LD18 meeting, Arizona Breakfast Club, whatever) are turned off. His performance is pathetic with no core political beliefs demonstrated. His answer to almost everything is” “I will listen to everybody.” There comes a time when you must stand for something. The only thing Lewis seems to stand for is “I can’t stand Russell Pearce.” It’s sad, because the people I know who know him say he is a nice guy. Unfortunately, this whole thing seems to have gone to his head. His “friends” are not really friends, or they wouldn’t have dragged him into this. If Chad Snow and Dea Montague and Tyler Montague are so adamantly against Pearce why didn’t they run? Answer: Their names are not “Jerry Lewis.”

  13. Andy Bernard says

    I am totally out of the loop recently on Stanton/Gullett because of work (I voted early). Has there been any poling released? I got a robo-poll that I answered but I’m thinking it was for internal purposes? Does anyone know?

    • I think Stanton was leading in most polls by double-digits. I don’t think this one is even close.

    • All polls released, internal from Stanton and external, showed Stanton with a commanding 15+ lead. I’m sure Gullett did some internal polling, he’d have been stupid if he hadn’t, but… crickets. My guess is even his polling showed “Hey, check me out I suck.”

  14. Pearce wins by 2%. Lewis’ “good” name will forever be tarnished. People will feel sorry for him that he was such a sucker. Montagues and Clarksons will be laughed at and not trusted ever again. People will wake up to the manipulation of radicals throughout the country attempting to take over the will of the people. Mike Wright’s business loses even MORE money amongst the LDS people who will no longer use his reception hall because of his involvment in this process. Chad and Randy will move on to another Republican to recall.

    • CD6 Businessman says

      Those who know Jerry Lewis, the Montagues and the Clarksons will continue loving them for the good people they are. You can claim all you want about what you heard or assumptions but I have known some of them my entire life and some of the conclusions that have been drawn (not necessarily by you) do not add up even close to who they are. I am sure the same can be said for Pearce and the supporters there. I know people on both sides of this and find it sad that we sometimes choose to hate people just because we disagree on a few things. If I applied that in my life I would hate my wife, my kids, my co-workers, and pretty much everyone I come in contact with. Just like life, in politics there has to be winners and losers and lets just hope that both parties can accept what happens this time around and hold off on beating each other up at least until the next election.

      • CD6 Businessman: Part of the porblem is the left refuses to “accept what happens.” LD18 voters elected Pearce in Nov 2010 and three months later they started the recall. Outside interests (Randy Parraz,, SEIU, and other leftists organizations) didn’t like the outcome of the election, and really became incensed when Pearce became Senate President. So they poured outside money into LD18 to overturn a legitimate election. Lewis and squishy Republicans decided they would take advantage of the situation. Unfortunately they played right into the hands of the lefties. So now you have Republicans beating each other up. Randy Parraz and his leftist cohorts are laughing.

        • Viramontes says

          @RonJ. Then why do over half of all Republican’s in LD18 support Jerry Lewis in this election?

          • Marty Smith says

            even if 60% of republicans supported Lewis – they should have done what is right and elect Lewis in the GENERAL election – not sell their souls to the likes of PDA, moveon and Parraz

            • Viramontes says

              @Marty Smith. The voters of LD18 cant vote for two Republicans in a General, because only one advances from the Primary. In the 2010 Primary, Republicans in LD18 did not have and alternative option to Pearce.

              One fact does remain from last November, which is very telling to the outcome of this special election and that is Russell Pearce won by the smallest margin of any State Senate incumbent.

              • Hey Viramontes! Go back to LD22. At least you’re known as a fool there. No sense spreading your secret to LD18.

          • We’ll have to wait and see if “over half of all Republican’s (sic) in LD18 support Jerry Lewis.” I don’t believe that’s the case, otherwise I wouldn’t predict Pearce’s win. If Lewis does happen to win, he will only be a potted plant at the Capitol. And the terrorists would have won. 😉

          • Mark Davis says

            I’d like to see where you are coming up with that number there Viramontes.

            If there wasn’t an alternate choice for the Republicans in 2010, whom do we have to blame for that? Maybe Kevin Gibbons should have taken another stab at it.

            Truth is, liberal Republicans as well as the far right Libertarians got into bed with the Democrats in order to get rid of a fellow Republican who was LEGITIMATELY elected into office.

            Might I quote a fellow friend of the recall? From July 19th “I know the people who have worked for the recall have given a lot of thought and effort to find someone who could be able to defeat Pearce and yet be acceptable to those of us who have worked on this recall. We are not going to get a democrat elected in this district, but we could get a person who is bright, knowledgeable, educated, and a good human begin. If we encourage a lot of different candidates, Pearce will certainly win and this would be a tragedy for all of Arizona. Of course we all want to know something about Jerry Lewis, but barring some very serious problem with him, we need to get behind him and to discourage any splitting of our vote among several candidates.”

            But, there was NO connection between the recall group and those recruiting Lewis. And I’m sure there is NO coincidence that those who began to run in the race, ended up backing out. Right?

        • CD6 Businessman says

          RonJ…You can cry foul all you want about the recall but in my opinion if Pearce had listened to his constituents earlier there is no way so many good Republicans would favor Lewis over Pearce. By your comment that “the left” refuses to accept what happens clearly shows that you have not been paying attention. There are MANY Republicans involved in this and not all of them are moderates or RINOs as you would like to believe. Additionally the recall is legal and in Arizona it is every voter’s right to choose who will represent them at any time. You say that we need to honor the results of elections but Pearce himself was pro-recall when it came to Sheriff Dupnik.

          Many conservatives also endorsed Ian Gilyeat instead of John McCain after their guy JD Hayworth lost. Is that an example of Republicans honoring the primary election? Is that accepting what happened? The fact is that we vote for those who will best represent us. The recall happened and now LD18 voters have a choice between two people. We get to choose the one who represents us and our values and ideals best. I have heard good and compelling arguments from both sides and after tonight we can choose to stay in our corners with our fists up or work together to fix the serious fights that are waiting for us (Obama, gerrymandered redistricting, etc…). I for one will be happy to fight against the liberals with either Senator Pearce or Senator Lewis.

  15. I like the “where will they be one year from now” predictions. lol

  16. Lewis by under 250 votes. I think the AZ Cap Times poll under represented Democrats (I did some phone work last night to get my normally apolitical friends to vote) and was surprised to find out that most had already marked the date on the calenders and were going to head out after work…

    But, I think the Tea Party is like any wounded animal and they will marshall their last to get to the polls, so it’s gonna be clooooose.

    Phoenix, however, will not be. Stanton by at least 10. Thelda Williams will win by 6. And coupled with tonight’s repeal of Gov. Kasich’s union busting bill in, it’ll be a big win all over for unions. Will the GOP learn that attacking teachers, garbagemen, police, firefighters, and other blue-collar workers isn’t a winning strategy? Let’s hope not!

    • Tiny Elvis says

      I think regardless of who wins in the Lewis / Pearce race, it’s decided by 400 votes.

      I agree, Thelda wins by at least 5.

      Issue 2 will be closer than the polls suggest. Ultimately, the ballot measure loses by 6 to 8 points. Issue 3 on the other hand (healthcare) wins by at least 5.

      I disagree on the margin of victory for Stanton. In the end, I think this one is a lot closer and Stanton wins by maybe 3 points.

      And Valenzuela wins by 3 points.

      I have no idea what’s going to happen in Tucson, but my instincts suggest Grinnell loses.

      In VA, Republicans reclaim the state Senate.

      • “Issue 2 will be closer than the polls suggest. Ultimately, the ballot measure loses by 6 to 8 points.”

        Called by AP. Currently, losing by 26 points. The Xtacles have a word for this: BOOSH!

        • Tiny Elvis says

          Actually, I think it’s MEGA BOOSH!

          • “I disagree on the margin of victory for Stanton. In the end, I think this one is a lot closer and Stanton wins by maybe 3 points.”

            Currently 56-43 Stanton. BOOSH! 🙂

            • I got Kluted…although it looks like I was sorta right on VA.

              Republicans look like they will pull out a tie…Lt. Governor is a Republican and casts deciding vote in tie-breaker.

              Here’s a serious question: if Issue 2 in Ohio was a rebuke of Kasich and collective bargaining reform (and wins by 20%), is the passage of Issue 3 (by 20%) a rebuke of Obama and the president’s health care law?

              Which matters more leading into the 2012 presidential election? Yes, that’s a legitimate question I am curious to get your thoughts on.

              • I imagine there’ll be a recount in VA… I sure as heck would if 86 votes was the difference between control of the Senate. But I’ll give it to you. 🙂

                I think the question about the mandate is still a sticky wicket, but HCR’s been around for about 1 1/2 years now and the conservative predictions of a nightmare world of witch doctors and bureaucrats determining who lives and who dies haven’t come to pass, so it’s losing it’s punch. The Q3 tally isn’t good, but is it something the right can hang their hat on to win in 2012? I don’t think so. Especially not if Mitt Romney’s the nominee (and with CainWreck on his way out, that’s looking more and more the case).

                Jobs will matter most in 2012. I think the public is resigned to bad unemployment for another couple years. But the Occupy movement (remember, this is the first Occupy election), coupled with the whole “garbagemen and teachers are the enemy” argument strangely failing to resonate with voters (and indeed, pushing people towards the Democratic Party), I think the Democratic Party may have found a winning argument.

                Especially when Obama can now run in Ohio against Kasich, Florida against Rick Scott and Wisconsin against Scott Walker. Hell, after tonight, with Tucson and Phoenix under Democratic control for the first time in 20+ years, I’m thinking Arizona might be on the table.

    • Klute: I think you’ve been taking the medical marijuana issue way too personally. You’re predicting a leftist/Democrat sweep across the country? Doubtful, very doubtful.

      • I’m predicting in the races I mentioned, yes.

        If Pearce loses and Stanton and Williams win, does this bode well for the conservative movement in the Valley?

      • Mississippi – Personhood goes down.
        Maine – Same day registration!
        Ohio – Question 2 goes down!
        Arizona – Stanton wins! Valenzuela wins! Williams wins! Pearce loses! Rothschild wins!

        I’m sure there’s more… but tonight, other than Ohio question 3 (which, you know, slightly muted by the appelate court today), very good night to be a Democrat, boyo.


  17. One other prediction: The big loser of the Phoenix mayoral election, not Wes Gullet. The big loser is Jennifer Wright. Wes Gullett was never going to win, especially not when his strategy was “Oh man, I better attack city workers – because that’ll get me the votes!”. Wright could have kept to a principled stand and NOT endorsed Gullett, and she would have positioned herself to be the “principled, conservative choice” in the next election for city council (Simplot could have been a target, although to be frank, Simplot’s an awesome, responsive city councilman and she still would have lost).

    But with the Tea Party having hit the high water mark, and Phoenix never being a bagger stronghold anyway, she decided to put it all on Gullett, one spin, double or nothing – and with Gullett losing, any clout she had turns to ether. S’long, Jennifer Wright.

    Although at least she didn’t try Janet Contreras’ hate-based strategy to try to win ( Now there’s someone who we’ll never see out side of shrill comments on public access again. Maybe if she refined her slogan. Maybe something like:


    • Klute, I’m totally with you on this one. Jennifer Wright sold out for, well, nothing. In other words, she only proved she had no pricinciples to begin with. IMO, she has killed off her future prospects because we now have evidence that she is no different than any other politician – in other words – she is spineless.

  18. I am going out on a limb. I predict that Wes Gullett is going to pull out the upset tonight through the superior get out the vote efforts on the part of both his campaign and the GOP. Turnout is king in an election like this and the record turnout suggests that these get out the vote efforts have been effective.

    • Um, what GOTV effort on part of Wes Gullett?

      • Tiny Elvis says

        Klute — I’m not sure how much effort was put into last minute phone calls to push voters to the ballot, but the mail has been painfully extensive. I’ve never received as much mail as I have for a citywide race as I did from Gullett. In a race that is primarily decided on early voting, that might be enough.

      • The one that surely did not call your house…

        • Or the one that didn’t visit the neighborhood, or the one that didn’t send a mailer, or the one that didn’t get a sign put up in the neighborhood, or etc. etc. etc.

          Gullett’s social media team sucked; when he made appearances, they were ham fisted, and he hasn’t shorn up the conservative base. Stanton however has had people knocking on doors, social media – he had a much better presence, he’s got a passionate base, and he handled the media well. Stanton by 10.

  19. Mike Triggs says

    I’m goingto go out on a limb and say it will be Lewis by 9%

    • Hey, Mike Triggs: You and Klute smoking the same thing? Lewis by 9% ? Not unless Randy Parraz and his leftist band of union thugs vote multiple times.

      • Zach Henry says

        Right. Whenever you win “the people have spoken”, and whenever you lose it was fraud and you got cheated. Grow up.

      • Wow. With 100% in, Lewis wins by 8.04%. RonJ, why are you so out of touch with the Arizona voter?

        • Sure is quiet. Amazing that there is no thread for results.


          When you cheat and lie and try to stop the democratic process….people notice.

          Congrats Senator Lewis, as for Pearce…the law would like to speak with you….

  20. I’m going to go out on a limb & say that any Republican in LD18 who does not vote for Pearce & votes for Lewis instead obviously does not understand what it means to be a Republican. Any “Republican” who supports Lewis is a terrible human being & needs to re-register as a Democrat so that he or she does not interfere in future Republican Party primaries. Actually, that’s not going out on much of a limb at all.

    Republicans should promise not to mess with the Democrat Party’s bosses choosing their leaders and candidates & Democrats should stay out of our primary process.

    We also should re-do the recall process so that there are 2 separate elections: one requiring a majority yes or no vote to recall an elected official & then a separate vote on who should replace that person if the recall passes.

    • Anson Clarkson says

      It’s small tent thinking like this that keeps building the Independent Party in Arizona. Whether or not Russell Pearce wins, the GOP continues on and needs to quit attempting to cleanse itself. The two party process is failing because the parties are failing.

      • Phillip the Great says

        Independent means no party affiliation. Parties are like atoms, they do not succeed or fail, they just morph into one molecule or another depending on what is going on around them.

        I will never understand people that blame the parties, the candidates, the advertising, the demagogues, the money, the corruption…and never blame democracy.

    • CD6 Businessman says

      Tyler M… that is a pretty ignorant comment (in my opinion). Let’s say just 30% of Republicans vote for Lewis and follow your instructions to re-register as Democrats. That would mean the current edge we have (26,874 Republicans and 18,762 Democrats) would literally be reversed (18,717 Republicans and 26,824 Democrats). If 40% vote for Lewis that would put us 2-1 Democrats to Republicans. Your plan clearly would destroy the Republican party in LD18.

      But then again to you I am just a terrible human being.

    • Raising Arizona says

      With supporters like Tyler M, Pearce has to be asking himself why he is getting it handed to him today. I hope Tyler M is joking. If he isn’t, he is going to find reality, political and otherwise, a perplexing place.

  21. Phillip the Great says

    Recalls in this state are so rare that it could be another century before we see the results of tinkering with the current process.

    If you want to end the possibility of some interference in primaries, work to overturn the open primary law that allows independents to vote in either the R or D primary.

    If you’d like to interfere in either party’s politics, leave your party and become an independent, ask for the other party’s ballot, and vote for the kookiest candidate on there.

    • Zach Henry says

      I think all people should be able to vote in all primaries. The closed primary system always sticks us with a choice between the most extreme republican and the most extreme democrat. Moderates, who are more aligned with the majority of us, don’t stand a chance.

  22. Latest exit polling shows Jerry Lewis ahead of Russell Pearce.

    November 8, 2011

    In the Mesa Legislative District 18 recall election against Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce, it is looking like Mr. Pearce will lose his seat in the Arizona Senate. According to exit polling political newcomer Jerry Lewis is ahead of Mr. Pearce by double digits. These exit polls are unofficial but all indications by the amount of the turn out by Mesa voters in this district it is a strong possiblity that Mr. Lewis will be the next Arizona State Senator for Mesa Legislative District 18.

    It is too early to call a winner with the polls still twenty minutes away from closing but stay tuned to the Maricopa County Democrat Examiner for the election results as they become available.

    If this is true, this is AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!

    • Update:

      UPDATE 6:45PM

      Just got off phone with Jerry Lewis’ Campaign Manager Anson Clarkson that the exit polls had Jerry Lewis ahead in the 13-14 point range.

      WOW, hoping its true.

    • Phillip the Great says

      awesome spam

      • – PEARCE, RUSSELL 6427 8107 45.95
        – CORTES, OLIVIA (withdrawn) 240 246 1.39
        – LEWIS, JERRY* 7555 9290 52.66

        • STATE SENATOR – DIST. 18
          87% (14 of 16) precincts reporting
          Vote for 1 EV VOTES TOTAL VOTES % VOTES
          – PEARCE, RUSSELL 6427 8869 45.74
          – CORTES, OLIVIA (withdrawn) 240 250 1.29
          – LEWIS, JERRY* 7555 10270 52.97

          Lewis is killing Pearce!!!! Enough of a lead so that Pearce can’t cheat.

    100% (16 of 16) precincts reporting
    – PEARCE, RUSSELL 6427 9188 45.36
    – CORTES, OLIVIA (withdrawn) 240 252 1.24
    – LEWIS, JERRY* 7555 10816 53.4

    All that sleaze, all those lies, all the dirty tricks…..Goodbye Russell, the people have spoken, you unethical sack.

    • Raising Arizona says

      Can you hear the crickets chirping over at the Pearce camp? At least Russell Pearce can keep his head up knowing he ran a clean, dignified campaign. He is going out in style.

  24. Phillip the Great says

    Don’t stop there. Let’s now prosecute the 9,188 people that voted for Pearce.

    • Zach Henry says

      No, leave them be. They’re entitled to their opinion. Let’s prosecute those who paid for Cortes’ yard signs and petition circulators, and Ron Ludders for convincing 50+ people to throw their vote away on a non-existent write-in candidate. Assuming, that is, there is an applicable law outlawing such sleazy, dishonest behavior.

    • Zach Henry says

      And don’t forget Lester Pearce for violating Canon Law.

    • Lets prosecute those who put out the signs, put up a stooge candidate, stole signs, threatened voters, attacked Jerry with a padlock, etc, etc, etc.

      Guess what? Voters don’t like thugs.

      Time for some indictments.

  25. @Hagar. Personal attack are pointless with me. I guess I’m not a complete fool in LD22 considering all the money they have in the bank has come my efforts.

  26. Nordine Crub says

    Lampoon you are absolutely right – Time for indictments. There is nothing I would love to see more than Constantine Querard in Tent City in a pair of Sheriff Joe’s Pink Underpants.

    And Congratulations Jerry Lewis – I know you will Make Mesa and Arizona Proud! You’ve been hit by padlocks, a truck load of CQ’s mud and LIES – LIES – LIES! And throughout the whole campaign you conducted yourself with dignity. Mesa is Lucky to have you!

    • Amen, and why the complete and total silence of the Pearce faction here? The silence and cowardice is deafening.

      I want indictments against Constantine, Greg Western, that Oldroyd chick, Lester, the nieces, the guy behind the robocalls, whoever made the Si Se Puede signs, the MeetJerryLewis people (who linked SA on their site), Olivia Cortes, the thug who threw the padlock, and so many more. Such dirty practices, such unethical behavior, such complete sleazebaggery.

      The good guy won, the bad guy is in trouble now, when you lose all your power, people come out to get you, because they aren’t scared.

  27. Union conspiracy theories and black helicopters coming to you on SA in 10 hours

    • Or tainted ballots….

      And through all this, Shane never called out Pearce for all the shenanigans he pulled.

      Jerry ran a very clean race, never attacked, never pulled any crap. And he won, big.

      Wonder what Olivia is doing tonight? “Why won’t Greg Western return my calls?”


      (boy this place is quiet)

  28. Another Mesa Voter says

    As the dust settles. I’m proud of the people in Mesa. Sometimes the system does work. Thanks to all the numerous people who made this possible, especially the people who had to endure all the mudslinging, constantly being on the defensive. You stood tall.

    You presented a campaign of honesty and integrity and you won!

  29. @Hagar. Personal attacks are pointless with me. I guess I’m not a complete fool in LD22 considering all the money they have in the bank has come directly from my efforts.

  30. John Hokanson Jr. says

    Cortes got 1.29%? Well, I guess that gambit didn’t work.

    What’s funny is that Lewis (who won by over 8%) would have probably gotten a solid 9% if she were off the ballot. There’s no dope smoking here.

    This was a 100% defeat for the GOP tonight. You can’t spin that.

    • Raising Arizona says

      John- I disagree. This win by Lewis is a 100% win for the AZ State GOP but a big loss for the Tea Party.

  31. A ture American says

    Russell Pearce should of clobbered that Un-American trader that will give this country to the Aztecs. It must be “fixed”!

  32. John Hokanson Jr. says

    You guys are right about one thing…

    I have no doubt they’re treat the poor man like a pariah in the Senate. He’ll have no power, and probably the crappiest commitee appointments.

    • Crappy committee appointments? Sure – that’s what happens when you enter mid-stream. But he will not be a pariah. He will have a coalition with Driggs/Crandall/Reagan etc right away and, if you’ve been following the “Gang of Six” in the US Senate, you realize that there is actually one of those in our own State Senate now (now gang of seven, those 6 that voted down Pearce’s immigration bills and now Lewis). Those 7 will actually hold all the power over the agenda b/c without their votes nothing will get passed.

      From day 1 Lewis becomes someone with whom leadership will have to play ball, because he and his coalition can torpedo anything leadership wants to push through.

  33. Mike Triggs says

    John – I sincerely hope you are wrong. If anything Jerry’s win will make it easier for people like my State Senator Michele Reagan and other more moderate voices like Adam Driggs, John McComish and Rich Crandall to stand up and do the right thing when Pearce isn’t there to threaten then with retribution when they get out of line.

    I hope the entire legislature, the Governor and the folks at High Ground got the message that they have gone too far. Now is the time to ratchet down the rhetoric, pass some meaningful Ethics reforms and put the kabosh on the Loony Tune legislation like Birther Bills and State Guns.

  34. John Hokanson Jr. says


    I hope I’m wrong too, but my gut is that they’ll hold a grudge; ignore the true lesson behind this; and try to drift farther to the right.

    Thing is, they may yet pay for it in 2012, and lose some seats. This sould be a wake up call that Arizona prefers moderate Republicans over hard line blowhards.

    • I am more of a hard-right person myself, but people need to realize that AZ is a center-right state, not a far-right state, and it will only be a “left” state to the degree that we forget that and let the far-right isolate themselves from independents. The “jump the shark” moment was when Pearce pressed ahead with the five immigration bills that were doomed. He knew they would fail, but he wanted to get the Rs voting against it on the record so he could personally run primary candidates against them. That type of behavior from a sitting Senate president against members of his own caucus was the key moment that exposed the hubris that would later take him down. He’s just divisive. Hey, that’s him. It’s not an insult. It’s who he his. His caucus NEVER should have given him leadership reigns. The unbridled power led to open war against all his political enemies (again, that’s not what smart leadership does …). IF he couldn’t keep it in check, he should’ve never run for the post..

      We cannot cut off all dialogue with the “center” (and the moderate elements of the left) – we need them if we’re going to have an effective ruling coalition.

  35. True Conservative says

    I don’t think Lewis will be treated like a pariah for long. His vote is needed and he has a winning personality. Good things will come of Lewis does the job he promises to do. He will, of course, get crappy assignments, as does any freshman who beats out a career politician.

    I am amazed by the election. Pearce snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with his bad acts. The Cortes mess just revealed him to be a fundamentally unAmerican, democracy loathing snake in the grass.

    So, a tip of the hat to Snow and Parraz for causing the recall election, and a hardy cheer for Lewis for running a principled campaign.

    Still worth repeating: Pearce snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Anyone affiliated with his campaign in a stategic or advisory role should henceforth be persona non grata in (R) politics.

    • Lewis is also freaking smart and brings considerable experience and brainpower down at the legislature.

      And you can be pretty sure he won’t point a gun at a reporter … But I am a little worried about Lori Klein pointing her gun at him this morning!

    • I agree 100%. His “ends justify the means” tactics did not serve him very well in the recall. His supporters did everything they could to confuse, misdirect, or intimidate voters into not supporting his opponent. In doing so, they attacked one of the most fundamental duties we have as Americans, the election process. They were no better than jury-tamperers or draft-dodgers. And yet, he calls them “Patriots”. Very telling.

      Pearce did not lose this because of 1070 or the Fiesta Bowl. He lost this because voters saw how low he was willing to sink to win the recall election and were disgusted by it. In fact, they were so disgusted by it, that the decided they would rather have a potentially ineffective newbie in the Senate, rather than continue to be represented by the guy who set the legislative agenda for that body.

      • Chris, You got that right. And I hope that the investigation resumes into the shady tactics attributed to the Pearce campaign. We might find out who thinks it’s OK to lie and cheat to win elections and then we’ll know who NOT to support next time.

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