Iowa Predictions

What an election cycle this has been, and promises to be!  After all is said and done, I am making the following predictions for tomorrow’s Iowa caucuses.


1.  Mitt Romney

At the end of the day, he worked too hard, spent too much money, and successfully distinguished himself from his closest competitor.  His turnout operation is top notch and professional, and his relentless campaigning in the state will lead him to edge out a first place victory.

2.  Mike Huckabee

I respect his decision to pull the negative ad he had planned against Romney, even as he did it in the most hamhanded way possible.  At a minimum, he needed to respond to Romney’s attacks against his record on taxes, immigration, and executive clemency, even if he didn’t go negative in the process.  He’s a warm and funny family man and a Bible believing Christian, and much as I would like to vote for him, his lack of foreign policy chops, protectionist trade beliefs, and disturbing record on pardons prevented him from sealing the deal with me.  He should have assembled the biggest group of former State, Defense, and NSA officials that he could find, and held a major speech detailing his views on international relations.  A second place finish here, coupled with a dismal showing in New Hampshire ends the Huckaboom.  Look for him on the ticket, as he nicely compliments any of the three potential nominees, who will need to shore up support among base voters.  At 52, I think he has a bright future ahead of him in any event.
3.  John McCain

Fred Thompson has run the most lazy, lackluster, boring and disappointing campaign in memory.  McCain’s return to viability, as evidenced by numbers both nationally and in early primary states, will have an impact on voters, as will the numbers showing him running a strong general election campaign.  He’s got the momentum and Fred doesn’t, and that should be good for a third place finish here.  The Bronze medal in Iowa will be a major subject of chatter over the next week.  Thompson will almost certainly drop out of the race and endorse McCain when Iowa is done.  Even if Huckabee loses tomorrow, I expect McCain will be the winner of the New Hampshire primary.

1.  Barack Obama

With strength in the population centers, he the second choice of many (supporters of candidates who don’t reach 15% in the Democratic caucus can vote for their second choice in the next round of voting).  It looks as though his attempts to expand the universe of voters have been bearing fruit, and he’s spent the money in the state to make this happen for him.

2.  John Edwards

Edwards has strength in rural Iowa (which has disproportionate weight in the caucus), and a strong network originally put together for his 2004 presidential bid.  It’s a tough call putting him second to Obama, and he is also the second choice of many voters.  Obama’s freshness and spending advantage, along with the dramatic increase in turnout, leaves Edwards behind.
3.  Hillary Clinton

Love her or hate her, nobody is truly re-evaluating her after roughly 17 years in the spotlight.  Her supporters will stay with her, but almost nobody lists her as a second choice.  Why her campaign hasn’t been actively lowering expectations in Iowa is beyond me, but she’s looking at a third place finish here.

What do you guys think?


  1. Anyone buttttttt Clinton, is fine with me!

  2. Fred is going to surprise everyone. His Iowa bus tour showed that he is anything but lazy. Just because he is not flamboyant doesn’t make him lazy. Here’s a great article from the Wall Street Journal

    But I’ll go one better mrbill; anoyone but a Dem is fine with me.

  3. Lexington Mark says

    I’m holding out for Huckabee in the #1 spot. Not so sure the “Huckaboom” is going to fizzle out. I agree though, regardless of the outcome in 2008, he has a bright future ahead and the GOP should pay close attention to the following he has obtained through his conviction filled responses and lack of talking points.

  4. Fred Thompson *might* come in 3rd in Iowa, but that’s it. He’ll be crushed in NH, he’ll come in 3rd in Florida, and then he’s out. He’ll throw behind Romney, and his wife will start lobbying hard for him to get the VP slot.

    Huckabee and Clinton in Iowa in a squeaker. Ron Paul secedes from the Union and forms a microstate off the Brownsville coast.

  5. Romney and Obama are not only peaking in the polls at the right moment, but they have the best organizations, too. Obama will surprise folks with how many new voters he will bring to the caucuses. Romney has been the man to beat since before the straw poll and Huckabee will not have enough momentum to carry the day.

    Clinton and Huckabee will be second in their respective caucuses, with Edwards and McCain taking the bronze medals. Biden will finish a surprisingly strong fourth for the Dems, but Thompson’s weak fourth place showing on the GOP side (behind the mostly-absent McCain) will foreshadow another fourth (or possibly fifth) place finish next Tuesday in New Hampshire…and the end of his campaign.

  6. McCain has a hard core group that will not vote for him. I can’t
    think conservative Republicans will vote for him. McCain/Feingold finance reform (four Supreme Court Justices thought it unconstitutional) and the McCain/Kennedy immigation bill that promised amnesty to almost every illegal alien in the U.S are certainly not conservative pieces of legislation. McCain’s age and his bouts with melanoma are certainly negatives. Factor in his undisciplined temper and his attractiveness as a candidate declines.
    His support of embryonic stem cell research cancels his pro-life
    stand. I don’t think he could be elected to office in the state of
    Arizona at this time because of his pro-amnesty stand.

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