IA Predictions (DSW)

One thing I love about Sonoran Alliance is the diversity of opinions among our conservative writers. I see that Publius has already made his predictions and I look forward to some of our other bloggers doing the same. Waiting on the eve of the first presidential caucus here are my predictions:

Huckabee wins Iowa by 5%. His social conservative positions on issues convices far many Iowans in the long run. For many Hawkeyes, Romney hasn’t convinced the voters he is authentic on their issues and the millions of dollars he’s spent in the state reinforces in these average income folks that he’s trying to buy them off while telling them what they want to hear. All the money in the world won’t be able to dissolve his contrary statements and record on abortion, healthcare and taxes. Huckabee connects with most Iowans because they identify with his “regular guy” presentation. Huckabee’s win against Romney allows McCain to finish 3rd – which will be the biggest story out of Iowa. Thompson, Giuliani and the etc. candidates will disappoint. Hunter will begin looking for an exit date and ultimately VP consideration. Thompson will probably return to Hollywood before the end of the month.

Barak Obama wins this contest by 5% points followed by Edwards and Clinton in that order. Hillary can’t seem to convince Iowans that she is likeable or liberal enough which puts her in a difficult position against Edwards, the uber-liberal. Obama walks away from the contest with renewed energy and despite his lack of experience, enamors the majority of Democrats. For liberal Democrats, anti-war, pro-abortion extremists control the the party; However, the more even-headed liberals will wrestle their liberal counterparts to a less liberal candidate. The big news story out of Iowa will be Edwards’ margin over Hillary rather than Obama’s margin over Edwards. As I’ve said all along, Hillary’s negatives are too high and even the most ardent Democrats don’t want to see the country go back to another Clinton Administration. Democrats are looking for new energy and someone without an “L” on their forehead.


  1. Josey Wales says

    I am going to go way out on a limb.

    1. Romney
    2. McCain
    3. Paul
    4. Huckabee
    5. Thompson
    6. Giuliani
    7. Hunter

  2. 1. Huckabee by a slim margin
    2. Romney
    3. Thompson
    4. McCain
    5. Giuliani
    6. Paul
    7. Hunter

    Hunter drops out and holds off an endorsement until after NH. Fearing that Romney or Huck could pull this off, Rush continues to call Thompson the only true conservative and Newt joins in. The money follows.

    Huckabee slides in the polls and in the bank, McCain does well in NH and Thompson gains in SC. Michigan holds a solid number for Romney but not a landslide. Giuliani gets Florida. Paul can’t get over 5th and the writing is on the wall, he drops out.

    By super-dooper Tuesday it’s Romney, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.

  3. Since we are doing the whole field here:

    1. Romney
    2. Huckabee
    3. McCain
    4. Thompson
    5. Paul
    6. Giuliani
    7. Hunter

    McCain will win in NH and SC, but Rpmney will carry Michigan and Giuliani takes Florida. It’s between these three on Feb. 5. Romney has the edge due to his money and the fact that McCain and Giuliani are anathema to certain segments of the GOP electorate.

  4. Hunter will make an awesome VP if polls suggest that we’re losing the portly older white male ultra conservative vote. Seriously, I think he began this charade by angling for SecDef, but his failure to rise above 1% after nearly two years of campaigning has diminished, rather than enhanced any stature he might have had going in.

  5. Wrong Ann, Ron Paul isn’t dropping out with $20 Million in the bank, no matter how well or badly he does. He’ll go all the way just for the attention he gets for his agenda. He has more money than anyone except maybe Romney if he dips into his own pockets.

  6. You are probably right, John. I guess that is one way to boost the economy.

  7. SonoranSam says

    I won’t handicap the whole field, but I agree w/predictions that Huckabee takes first place on the GOP side, followed by Romney and then McCain, who shares the “expectations” title with Huckabee by taking third in a state he basically blew off.

    On the D side, I also agree it’s Obama, followed by Hillary and then Edwards, who will take weak third but will be judged a loser by the pundits because he faded.

    The key on the D side is the second choice tonight. Those Kucinich, Dodd, Richardson and Gravel backers will opt for pragmatism when their candidate fails to qualify on the first ballot.

    They won’t go with Clinton because of all you Hillary-haters out there, so they’ll go for Obama. For that reason I think he’ll win by more than 5 percent, and will be crowned the new D front-runner.

    Then it’s on to NH, where Hillary will work hard to outdo her husband as the Comeback Kid. I may be wrong, but I think McCain will win the R primary in NH. Those newspaper endorsements will reinforce his anti-establishment credentials in the “don’t tread on me” state.

    For we Arizonans, it means we’ll be watching campaign ads for the next month (oh boy), and you McCain-haters will get a chance to make John feel your wrath.

    I don’t get a vote. My R pals out there might be surprised to learn I’m a registered independent. If I did, I dunno. I used to like Edwards (There. That ought to put me back in your leftist pigeon-hole) but if I had a vote in the AZ primary, I don’t know what I’d do at this point.

    It oughta be interesting.

  8. SS, I am bewildered why someone who is as engaged and passionate as you are about politics would make a concerted effort not to have a say in selecting the nominee for president?

  9. I say Huckabee takes Iowa, with Romney coming in at a close second. The Bronze in Iowa is more interesting, I think. Expect Ron Paul to give McCain a run for his money at the third spot. If Huckabee wins Iowa, then McCain probably takes New Hampshire, and that’s the end of Romney. Guiliani? Thompson? Ha! Not a chance of winning a thing…

    I think Obama will take the Dem nod in Iowa, with a close second from Edwards. Hopefully (for me and other Obama supporters), this vaults Obama over the top in New Hampshire.

  10. Aw, SS, I just know someday you’ll see the light and come to the “right” side of life. 🙂

  11. Sonoran Sam says

    Lynn: Maybe I’m an Armadillo, which would explain a few things.

    To quote the late and great Molly Ivans, the only thing occupying the center of the road are yellow stripes and dead armadillos.

    If I’ve learned one thing in my life, it’s that I ain’t yellow – dumb, maybe, yellow no.

    That only leaves one other explanation….

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