Giffords slips 6% in 4 days.

azborder.jpg      Gabrielle Giffords was ahead by 19% in poll results dated September 20th. Four days later the Sunday edition of the Arizona Daily Star has her ahead by only 12.7%. That represents a loss of 6.3%. At this rate Randy Graf should catch up to Gabby in about 9 days.

     The Star poll also showed that the border was the single most important issue for 45.8% of respondents, followed by a distant 10.7% of people who were primarily concerned about the war in Iraq.

Sunday 9-24-06, 6:20 am


  1. I find it difficult to understand how Giffords cculd be ahead in a poll that also has immigration as the most important issue for voters.

  2. Oro Valley Dad says

    Would it help to know that a Democratic firm conducted the poll?

    Look for another poll soon in the Tucson Weekly by a different company.

  3. Both the Giffords poll and the Zimmerman poll in the Star do not show any information about their polling samples: other than the “likely voters” in both polls. If we don’t know who they polled, then we cannot verify the validity or accuracy of the poll. Regardless, it looks like the more people know about Gabby, the less they like her. Her support went from 54% in her poll four days ago to 48.4% in the Zimmerman poll. Randy Graf clearly has the momentum at this point.

  4. Oro Valley Dad says


    Please watch the language. This is a family friendly web site. Of course these polls are very early and do not reveal the whole picture. We are just having some fun spinning the story our way. After last week we needed a little encouragement. No one on the GOP side is under any illusions.

    Having said that Gabby chose to release a very optimistic poll number. I think it was a mistake because the 19% number will be her high water mark and she will go down from there. She set up a scenario in which the perception is that Graf is gaining.

  5. Randall Holdridge says

    Oro Valley Dad,

    I appreciate and respect the good-hearted voice of your comment #5, Oro Valley Dad. Sorry, but I think the impression that Mr. Graf is gaining would be better supported if his percentage of voters increased, and if his negatives declined.

    What I find most interesting about interpretations of the figures on this site is not that you want to have fun spinning the numbers (who doesn’t), but that there seems to be no acknowlegement as regards issues about why Graf isn’t adding voters to his percentage of the total, and of why his negatives are consistently so high.

    I think Graf enthusiasts need a cross-tabbed poll of CD-8 which explains these questions. I’m pretty sure that the RNC and the NRCC have such a poll — they’d be stupidly incompetent if not — and that what they know explains their clumsy primary intervention on behalf of Mr. Huffman and their more recent abandonment of Mr. Graf.

    I suppose they’ve also shared the outcome of their polling with the county chairpeople and the national committee people and major donors.

    The fact that this information has not been made public, unlike the Giffords polls, causes me to think that the “Graf Wing” is looking at a major train wreck.

    Of course, I’m just being logical.

  6. Oro Valley Dad says

    Randall you stated your case so well that there is not much for me to add.

    After decades of listening to the MSM spin and distort the news I am just getting warmed up. There is no “Graf Wing.” There is the conservative base of the Republican Party and it will outlive this race and what ever happens in the general it will still be there. They have now established a stronghold in the Oro Valley/NW Tucson area and will soon have a state senator leading the way. Not exactly what I call a train wreck.

  7. I actually agree with Oro Valley Dad on one thing and that is that high poll numbers give only one opportunity to Graf…that is to make “hay” out of any closing of said gap and try to build momentum off of it.

    I wouldn’t give him the opportunity to do so. Also, frankly, I would start reaching across the fence to some Republicans that don’t want Graf, that frankly can’t see the extreme position on immigration that he floats, and that see immigration as an important component of economic development in Southern Arizona.

    It is a nice campaign issue, but the business wing of your party hides, hides, hides and is most quiet about immigration. Why? I will tell you.

    The builders, real estate market, and developers (along with farmers) benefit most from illegal labor. Can’t deny that. They are also the life blood of the Republican party.

  8. Oh…and Michael Bryan is right about the polls. Either way, Graf is losing by double digits…and Graf has very little money to get his message out, to contact voters, or to respond to critics. He will get his primary vote total plus some more republicans, but as it stands now, I see Giffords frankly building an unstoppable coalition. She may not win by 19%…but even a 5% win is big in this district…and…she will be our U.S. House Rep.

  9. Eph - the PRO LIFE JEW !!! says

    at least the winner will be “straight” and no more Kolbe. Now we wont have to worry about being a answer to the most popular political trivia question in the country.

    “Can you name the only 2 openly gay reps in the Congress??”


  1. […] go back to the 2006 election and check how the firm did in that election. Greenberg et al conducted a poll of 500 voters from September 13 to 18 and they were within 0.8% of the actual results. Not bad for 6 weeks before […]

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