Democrat strategy may be a huge waste of money

The Arizona Democratic Party is pouring massive amounts of cash into legislative races at the last minute. Problem is almost 1/3 to 1/2 of voters may have already cast their ballot. Even if the Democrats are targeting Election Day voters, a certain portion of those have already made up their minds or will vote Republican despite the Democratic attack mailers and ads. Then there is a portion of the electorate that briefly glances at political mailers as they fall into the garbage can. Not an effective use of money. But the last minute attacks are not late enough to trigger matching funds to pay for final weekend Republican radio and TV ads. For their million dollars in last minute attacks the Arizona Democrats may pick up one or two seats at best. There is a good chance they will also lose a seat or two that they gained in 2006.

The DCCC is also spending massive amounts on the CD 3 election, where polls now show Shadegg ahead by double digest.

Maybe the Democrats should try something besides spend, spend, spend…


  1. At least they’re doing their part to put more cash into the economy.

  2. Do we know the breakdown on the early vote? In other states, it’s be tending Democrat – even Florida which is known for the GOP having an edge there.

    Hey, is Sonoran Alliance going to post an opinion on these polls showing McCain with a 2-point lead in AZ? Maybe a comparitive analysis with Barack Obama’s 23 point lead in his home state?

  3. Your logic is flawed, in that you are operating on the assumption that up to half of the voters have already cast their ballots. All reports show that about half of all voters requested an early ballot (an inflated number, owing to the new permanent early voting list law), and roughly half of those have been returned.

    That’s only about a quarter of the voting pool. Given that state officials are estimating 75%-plus turnout, you’re only talking about a third of ballots that have been cast right now — but not when the Dems began their spending spree. There are probably still 60% or so of the total votes still in play. Certainly those people are worth going after, from a campaign management perspective.

    Regardless, I think it’s obvious that the Demo strategy has been to disregard the early voters as people who are most committed and partisan, and whose opinions would almost certainly never be swayed. Theyr focus has 100% been on the rest of the voting population, and especially independent and first-time voters. They also are focusing on only a few districts, which amplifies the dollars they are spending.

  4. kralmajales says

    Note that the poll’s design is flawed…and note also the 5% margin of error. This makes it a statistical dead heat, not a 10% lead. Although, I am most fine with you all just saying he has it and not voting.

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