AZ 5th Congressional District Poll

The following press release was issued by American Viewpoint

AZ 5th Congressional District Poll: Harry Mitchell Re-Elect at 41, Over 10-Point GOP Generic Advantage;
GOP Primary Wide Open – 70% Undecided

Alexandria, VA – Today American Viewpoint, a nationally recognized public opinion research firm, released the findings of a survey conducted in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District with 300 likely general election voters that was commissioned by newly filed candidate Dr. Chris Salvino. Interviews were conducted August 31-September 1, 2009.

“This is the clearest evidence yet that Congressman Harry Mitchell is extremely vulnerable in his re-election effort and his numbers are likely even worse today than they were in the fall,” said Randall Gutermuth, Vice President with American Viewpoint. “Making matters worse for Mitchell is that voters nationally have become stridently anti-incumbent and considering Mitchell’s 40 year tenure as career politician his chances for re-election look even more bleak. Harry Mitchell has the unenviable task of pleasing his GOP-leaning district while also having to follow the Speaker Pelosi agenda.”

Some of the key findings:

When respondents were asked whom they would support, either the Republican candidate or Democrat candidate, Democrats were in trouble, marking the first time in 4 years the district has flipped:

Generic Ballot Test:
Total Republican: 45%
Total Democrat: 32%

Even worse news for Mitchell is that his re-election number was way under 50%, a key indicator of where an incumbent Member of Congress should be. When asked if Mitchell has done his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election versus giving a new person a chance:
Mitchell Re-Elect:
Re-Elect Mitchell: 41%
New Person: 41%

In the GOP Primary, 70% of the respondents were undecided. While David Schweikert leads among announced candidates, surprisingly the former nominee and long time local politician severely underperforms his own electoral success from just two years ago, seemingly unable to galvanize GOP support:
GOP Primary
Undecided: 70%
David Schweikert: 26%
Jim Ward: 3%
Chris Salvino: 1%
Erik Wnuck: 0%


Comments

  1. While the polling numbers look great for anyone running against Mitchell, 300 people for a poll is a joke. Every poll I have ever seen does at least 500 and the overwhelming majority do 700-1000 people. This is also a conservative polling group so it also has to be discounted somewhat for that as well.

    It would be nice if they could give cross tabs to give it more validity.

    The one thing it does show if you want to give it credibility is Schweikert will be the nominee and a lot of people in his own party aren’t sold on him…

    Also it says mitchell is down to a generic republican but what about a republican with no ground game who he has already beaten by 10 points? To me Schweikert is worse than a generic republican at this point.

  2. Mitchell is the Joke says

    Mitchell is vulnerable maybe the AZ Republic might actually cover this race and take a hard look at what a bad record he has.

  3. EnergyAZGuy says

    Those polling numbers look great for republicans. I think Salvino would be well suited for this position. Its about time CD5 is accurately represented.

  4. Donna Reed says

    Mitchell vulnerable and primary wide open is what i see. Schweikert can’t be happy to see 70% undecided when he’s matched against three rookies.

  5. EnergyAZGuy,

    Does Salvino even have a website? I can’t find much on him except that he his a surgeon.

    Kinda surprised he got more of the vote than Wnuck who at least has a website and facebook page and things like that. Not that I think Wnuck has a chance either just thought it was interesting.

  6. Concerned American says

    The writing has been on the wall for sometime for H. Mitchell. He’s brief tenure is over.

    As for Schweikert, again, another politico in sheeps clothing…..

    Don’t know much about Salvino, but from the brief researh I’ve done, he’s a solid guy who will bring fresh perspective.A Doctor who can speak about Healthcare reform and a business entrepreneur? Sounds like a fresh alernative to the same old, same old….

    It’s a new decade, let’s get something done!

  7. kralmajales says

    Oh please…donate donate and fight fight fight, without a serious and well known candidate you will not defeat a sitting incumbent…even in a bad year like this. Get me someone I have heard of…maybe like a Huppenthal or someone like that…and there may be a chance.

  8. mike kentland says

    Finally it looks like we have a solid candidate to take out Mitchell. I met Dr. Salvino at Arpaio’s Christmas party. he has his *stuff* together and will make a strong candidate. we need a fresh face and voice to win that race.

  9. I am glad Salvinos campaign is now on this site talking. But tell me something about the guy… where is his website? Where does he stand on issues? All I have heard is “he has the stuff” and “he is a solid guy”

    Which tells me ZERO.

    Also Mike getting 1% doesnt make you a solid candidate, all it means is that Jim Ward of all people got 3 times the vote that you did.

  10. I have known salvino for several years and have had the pleasure of working with him on a professional level. He is an honest and hard working man that will be a refreshing replacment for Mitchell.

    the
    O

  11. kralmajales says

    Salvino will have no money, no name rec., and virtually no shot at beating Mitchell. I am not sure he will even beat Schweikert.

  12. Why did David S. underperform? Not good.

  13. Mitchell is the Joke says

    kral:

    Salvino is a rich doctor. He will have plenty of money. Guy lives in north Scottsdale for a reason.

  14. Mitchell is the Joke

    He doesnt have a website and the primary is less than 8 months away… I have my doubts that he is competing or willing to spend a lot of cash…

  15. Wow, you’re saying a commissioned poll by Mitchell’s challenger shows him in a weak position?

    Color me nonplussed.

  16. Oh, and American Viewpoint is a Republican firm. Let’s hope they call this race as well as they did for Betsy Bayless!

  17. Ye Naysayers! says

    The winds have changed, and this is Schweikert’s time – bank it.

  18. I have been to one of Eric Wnuck’s 7 town halls. He is a fresh voice and a fresh face. Alot can change from now to election day.

  19. Gop Roots,

    Wnuck got less than the guy without a website…He is a joke..

  20. A Marine Mom says

    I have been to NUMEROUS parties over the holiday season. The conversation typically moved to politics and Harry Mitchell. I live in his district and no one in my circle of friends wants this man representing us for another two years. He is a liberal in moderate clothing. He does not represent us and we all agree that we will use all of our resources to ensure that Mitchell is sent packing. I am firmly behind David Schweikert. He is a fiscal conservative. He will listen to his constituents and will not run from us. He is a good man, and wants to reverse the course that our nation is currently on. I hope that everyone will get behind David Schweikert. He is the man to represent us here in Scottsdale.

  21. Marine Mom,

    Your comment reminds me of that famous quote attributed to Pauline Kael. “I can’t believe Nixon won – nobody I knew voted for him.”

    Mitchell by 2% – take it to the bank.

  22. Calamity June says

    We need an ELECTABLE Republican to go against Mitchell!

    Tempe isn’t East Mesa! Professional Republican women want someone with some fiscal sense but also someone who will keep their hands off of our right to choose! I have been a Republican all my life but I’m tired of having to explain MY BODY is MY BODY! We need someone who will balance the budget but will also get all the excess guns off the street! Why do we let our party be ruled by people who don’t understand that if you need a license to drive a car you should also have a license to pack a pistol? STUPID!

    Susan Bitter Smith, where are you? Your party needs you now! She’s got a good head AND Sheriff Joe’s support, and Mitchell is vulnerable. I don’t know why she’s not in it yet.

  23. Anybody want to weigh in on my question as to why Schweikert underperformed? He should be doing better.

  24. The bottom line is that Schweikert did Not underperform. In reality, he polled high considering the primary field of multiple candidates.

    The other significant factor of this poll is that it was only geared to a general election scenario. It is pretty clear that the pollster did not poll to the primary voter and that the results diluted the true impact of any primary candidates on the GOP side.

  25. Oscar,
    That’s a nice point about who was polled but in the end the guy who won a 5 way primary last time and was on tv for months fighting a general election should have polled higher end of story..
    He didn’t in my opinion because he is a bad candidate…

  26. johnny,

    I guess a good test to confirm your opinion would be if JD Hayworth were the candidate?

  27. Oscar, Johnny is right, but JD would blow everybody away if he weren’t running against McShame.

    I had high hopes for David last time but he was and is a terrible candidate. Even worse is Susan “I have run for Congress 7 times” Bitter Smith, whoever Calamity Jane is should go ahead and just say her real name is Susan. Come on the only election she has won in the last decade is for a volunteer position.

    We need a new fresh face to counter Harry Mitchell who has been a politician since Carl Hayden was in the Senate.

    This campaign needs to be about old v new, and if it is we can retake this seat. If its perennial candidates Shweikert or Bitter Smith we might as well SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE HEAD NOW.

  28. Oscar,

    You can check my posts I think JD is the candidate to win this race in CD-5. It is to late for him to run against mccain, not enough time to raise money that he would need.

    But he does have the time to raise the cash needed for a congressional race. He also captures the fiery persinailty the gop needs if they are going to win seats.

    He just makes the most sense to me.

    However I don’t see him getting in anyway… Its a major pay cut from kfyi and he needs to maintain his north scottsdale life style.

  29. Wow sorry for the horrible spelling errors in the previous post but I think you get the point.

  30. Johnny you are right about a lot, but you are wrong about McStain. He needs to go, and the only one who can make that happen is JD Hayworth. If Hayworth doesn’t run against McShame then he should at least take Brewer out, she is terrible for AZ.

  31. Calamity June:
    Take a look at a baby on a 3D ultrasound. You DON’T have a right to kill. The Republican Women who are more interested in their right to kill their unborn than uphold Republican principles are the ones who brought us Janet Napolitano. Be a democrat if that is so important to you.

  32. Conservative 2 the core,

    I would agree with you more if this was July 2009. McCain has $20 million. JD has less than 8 months till the primary where does he get the money to compete?
    He needs to raise a good 5 million to compete that’s just not happening. Also I assume McCain is like Shadegg last cycle. Lord came out with some good fundraising numbers and Shadegg decided to try. That’s just what will happen if JD enters and starts raising a lot of cash. Mccain will actually try.

    I just don’t see anyone doing this in 8 months to over take McCain…

  33. JamminJosie says

    I am seriously so sick of people like Harry Mitchell. We need people in congress that understand you can’t keep borrowing money from yourself forever. At some point the bill comes due. I have also met Dr. Salvino and think he has his *stuff* together. I think he would offer good representation particularly in the troubled health care waters our government is currently sinking in. I’m sure more information about him will be out soon.

  34. Very interesting comments thus far.

    I have a request in to American Viewpoint who issued the press release (and ran the poll) asking for the cross tabs to validate their claim(s).

    I have been involved in Arizona politics for 20 years and I have never heard of Chris Salvino. As far as I can tell, he does not appear on the Maricopa County Elections Department’s list of 2008 Precinct Committeemen. (Was he appointed?)

    He does not appear to own a piece of property in Maricopa County (according to the Assessor’s website).

    He does show up on the Maricopa County Superior Court website.

    He appears to have a Facebook page.

    The impression to the GOP PC’s and activists is that this is another johnny-come-lately to Arizona politics.

    I am very tempted to pull this post entirely unless I hear back from the pollster to validate the poll. However, the comments have given this post legs of its own.

  35. Another general comment, McCain is already on the airwaves… I have to assume this is McCain flexing his muscles, a shot across the bow if you will.

    I think it proves the point McCain has unlimited resources and with every day that goes by it is less and less likely JD gets in.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/07/obama-leading-crusade-to-bankrupt-america-mccain-says-in-new-ad/

    Also DSW thank you for asking for the cross tabs I think that is very important.

  36. Concerned American says

    So Salvino is a busy guy….The Poll is just that ” A Poll”…I get the sense there is a great deal more to come out about Schweikert …

    I feel he is lost cause…too much of the same old regime

    As for DSW coments…Obama was a Johny come lately too..and he ended up beating the “Hillary”…Ya never know…..

  37. I saw online that Dr. Salvino contributed ($680)to Obama’s campaign. I would like to hear what he has to say about that.

  38. I received the following letter today from Harry. Thought I’d pass it on as it’s a civics lesson for those of us that wish our voices to be heard politically.

    Dear Mr. Resler,

    Thank you for contacting me. I appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts with me. Hearing from constituents and responding to their concerns is one of the most important aspects of my job. In order to effectively represent the Fifth District of Arizona, it is important for me to hear from you, and all other concerned individuals in our district.

    As I taught my students for 28 years at Tempe High School, citizen involvement is the backbone of our democracy and it is important for every citizen to make his or her voice heard. I value your input, and I will keep your views in mind as the 111th Congress addresses the issues that impact our country and local community.

    Once again, thank you for contacting me. If you have additional questions, concerns, or comments on this or any other issue, please do not hesitate to contact me in the future.

    If you would like to receive email updates about how I am working on behalf of Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, I invite you to sign up for my newsletter at http://www.mitchell.house.gov.

    Sincerely,

    Harry E. Mitchell
    Member of Congress

  39. Glenn, Scottsdale, AZ says

    I hope David Schweikart’s baggage from 2008 doesn’t spill over into 2010.

    Also, please let the Republican candidates not kill each other like Schweikart and Smith did in 2008.

  40. Rawley McCulley says

    Jim Ward Has exactly what is needed in Az, District 5. A real person with a clear vision for the future and the tough decisions that need to be made.

  41. doctor salvino has legal problem

  42. Clear thinker says

    If ever you had any questions about commitment… this will clear them up.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxlf8PTYhe4n

    Ron Ludders at Az2010 project knows the score on Dr Salvino’s alleged legal problem. It was actually resulting from a pretty heroic struggle against health insurance companies to save his business, his many patients and employees. Dr Salvino prevailed against a mob of lawyers, but emerged fighting mad about what is happening to medicine today.

Trackbacks

  1. […] The question is whether Hayworth really has a chance of winning? Personally I would think that he could and would be the air apparent to an aging John McCain for AZ Senator. McCain is presently 73 years old. One might think that maybe Hayworth would run for his old House seat and help take back the House for Republicans and the run for McCain’s seat in the future. Just a thought. Although it appears that the Republicans already have a strong challenge to Harry Mitchell in the AZ 5th Congressional District. […]

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