Poll: Democrats Support Ousting Sinema in 2024 Primary

Kelly Faces Alarming Favorables One Year Out from Election

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (November 22nd, 2021)- When Sen. Mark Kelly was elected in 2020, his victory marked the first time Arizona was represented by two Democrats in the United States Senate since the early-1950s. Since taking office, Kelly has established himself as more of a party-line Democrat, while his colleague, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, has ruffled feathers by opposing some of her party’s key priorities. A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) suggests that both Democrats could be in danger of losing their runs at re-election.

This AZPOP survey was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.7%.

Sinema Favorables

Since President Joe Biden’s inauguration, many of his ambitious legislative priorities – such as voting rights reform, his budget framework, and climate change legislation – have been stalled in the evenly divided Senate. Many blame the stalled legislation on Sinema, and OHPI’s polling suggests that Arizona Democrats are starting to have the same feeling.

kyrsten sinema favorability

Kyrsten Sinema’s favorability ratings are roughly split among Arizona voters, with 42% viewing her favorably and 45% viewing her unfavorably. What is especially interesting is the Democratic Senator’s ratings across the aisle – Sinema’s numbers with Republicans are above water while her numbers with Democrats are underwater. Forty-eight percent of Republicans view Sinema favorably and 45% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, just 42% of Sen. Sinema’s own party view her in a favorable light and 47% hold an unfavorable view of her.

Sinema’s Primary Woes
“Sen. Sinema’s growing unpopularity with voters from within her own party could prove fatal in 2024 when she will have to ask for Democrats’ support for re-nomination,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “While there is still time between now and then, Sinema has ground to make up with her constituents in the next three years.”

When asked who they would prefer as a U.S. Senator given the options of Sinema, a Republican, and a Democrat other than Sinema, only 26% of Arizona Democrats said that they would prefer Sinema, while another 72% chose a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema.

preferred US Senator

Senator Sinema also currently trails in hypothetical primary matchups. Against Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego, 47% said that they would support Gallego while 24% said that they would support Sinema. Rep. Greg Stanton, Sinema’s successor in Congress, leads his predecessor by an identical margin in a hypothetical primary match-up. Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman also bests Sinema by 20 points.

“Sinema’s holding out on the reconciliation bill caused a lot of political pressure from left wing of her party, and her numbers were beginning to sour because of it,” said Mike Noble. “she was walking a delicate tight rope, see in numbers now, rope was looking more like fishing wire.”

Filibuster
Sinema’s opposition to reforming the Senate filibuster has angered many progressives. Arizona’s electorate, however, is having a difficult time gauging the Senator’s exact position on the Senate rule. The survey found that 42% of Arizona voters believe Sinema supports the filibuster, while a statistically equivalent 39% are unsure where she stands.

With less than a year until he must face voters once again, results of this latest AZPOP survey could serve as a warning sign for Sen. Mark Kelly, as the freshman Democratic Senator’s favorable numbers are underwater by seven percentage points – he is viewed favorably by 41% of Arizona voters, and unfavorably by 48%.

Unlike Sinema, Kelly’s numbers with partisans fall in line with your typical swing state Democratic Senator: 75% of Democrats view him favorably, and 76% of Republicans view him unfavorably. His low numbers can also be attributed to Independents, with whom he is underwater by 10 points.

“As President Biden faces his lowest approval ratings since taking office, voters are turning their frustration to Democratic candidates,” said Noble. “That’s something Senator Kelly should keep in mind as he faces re-election in one of the country’s closest swing states.”

Favorability of Democratic Politicians

Biden’s Economic Agenda
Nationwide polling has found decent support for President Biden’s key legislative priorities among voters, even as the President himself faces low approvals. Arizona has been no exception to this trend.

In the Grand Canyon State, support for the Build Back Better Act – the President’s economic framework – is six points above water. Forty-seven percent of Arizona voters support the bill while 41% oppose it. Even Independents, who are currently key players in driving Biden’s unpopularity, narrowly support the bill (46% support the bill, 39% oppose it).

The Takeaway
“Both Sinema and Kelly have work to do if they want to hold onto their seats,” said Mike Noble. “For Sinema, she must rebuild some of the bridges she seems to have burned with voters in her own party. For Kelly, he will likely have to navigate a midterm environment with an unpopular Democratic President.”

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Salmon For Arizona Governor Releases Education Policy Paper

Phoenix – Former Congressman and Republican gubernatorial candidate Matt Salmon today released a new policy paper outlining how he plans to further strengthen Arizona’s schools for children, parents, and teachers through meaningful accountability and educational freedom. The policy paper will provide the foundation for Salmon’s educational agenda as Arizona’s next governor.

Click Here To Read The Education Policy Paper Online

Click Here To Read The Education Policy Paper As A PDF

Now is the time for Arizona to pursue ambitious public policies that will create a system of educational excellence and guarantee that students receive the education we know they deserve. The last two years demonstrated the overwhelming importance of keeping schools open for in-person instruction and ensuring parents are aware of what is being taught inside of their children’s classrooms. I am committed to protecting parents’ rights to engage with their local school boards without fear of intimidation and empowering every family in the state with educational freedom whenever they choose and for whatever reason. As Arizona’s next governor, I promise to do everything in my power to stop Critical Race Theory’s grotesque politicization of our classrooms and refocus school curricula on core competencies, namely math, science and civics, which will prepare students for the future,” said Salmon.

You can watch Salmon’s remarks at the recent Scottsdale Unified School District governing board meeting here and listen to his radio interview about the Chandler Unified School District on News Talk 550 KFYI here.

Press Release: GOP Establishment Could be Trumped in 2024

58% of Arizona Republicans Want the Former President to Make a Comeback
Toplines and crosstabs can be found here
PHOENIX (November 18th, 2021)- Despite the nearly three years until the next presidential election, a new poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) finds that more than half of Arizona Republicans believe Donald Trump should follow in Grover Cleveland’s footsteps and become the first former president in more than a century to seek the office after losing re-election. The poll finds that, should he decide to run, Trump would be a prohibitive favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, running far ahead of any competitor in a crowded field. This survey was the newest edition of OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The AZPOP is a statewide survey that provides regular updates on the moods, opinions, and perceptions of Arizonans on hot topics facing the state. This AZPOP was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Although nearly six in ten Arizona GOP voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, the belief is not shared widely outside of the party. Only 27% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats believe that Trump should run again. On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of Independents and 80% of Democrats think that Donald Trump should “definitely not” make another run at the presidency.
2024 GOP primary chart trump run
“While former President Trump may be the ideal candidate for Republicans, nominating him could spell disaster for the party’s hopes to retake the White House,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “With only a quarter of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting a ‘Trump comeback,’ he may not be a viable candidate in the Grand Canyon State.”Diving deeper into Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. Crowded primary fields have become a trend in presidential politics recently – more than 15 Republicans participated in at least one debate in the 2016 GOP primary, and more than 20 Democrats did so in their party’s 2020 primary – and if the 2024 GOP primary shakes out in a similar way, with multiple Republicans running against Trump, the former president is in a solid position to face whomever the Democrats nominate heading into the 2024 general election. Given the option of nine prominent Republicans (Former President Donald Trump, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie), 48% of Arizona Republicans would support Trump, 16% would vote for DeSantis, and no other candidate receives more than 10% support.
2024 GOP Primary trump v others
“In a fractured primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination,” said Joss. “Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans’ support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about – and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for – is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate.”The survey also found that, in the eyes of Arizona Republicans, Donald Trump Jr. would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. When asked the same 2024 GOP primary question, but replacing Donald Trump for Donald Trump Jr., the younger Trump earned the support of 8% of Republicans overall, and just 14% of Republicans who would support his father in a primary election. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are the candidates who stand to benefit the most without the former president on the ballot, earning 29% and 21% of Republicans’ support, respectively. Ted Cruz (10%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The 2024 GOP Primary becomes murkier without the former president on the ballot, as the share of those unsure whom to support nearly doubles from 9% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 16% Unsure without him.
2024 GOP Primary Trump Jr.
“As Don Jr.’s performance shows, there is something about former President Trump that Arizona Republicans like more than just the name Donald Trump,” said Joss.
###Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. The sample of registered voters also contained a subsample of 252 respondents who self-identified as being registered members of the Republican party. This subsample has a MoE +/- 6.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Governor Ducey: Protecting Arizona Voters

Arizona’s election laws make it easy to vote — but hard to cheat. Under Governor Doug Ducey’s leadership, Arizona continues to prioritize election integrity to further strengthen the process that makes our representative government a beacon of democracy.

Public confidence in voting is critical — it is the foundation upon which all our elections are built. This year, a number of election-related bills passed by the Arizona Legislature and signed by Governor Ducey send a clear message: every Arizonan eligible to vote will be able to vote, each of those votes will be counted and no one will be allowed to interfere with our elections.

In May, Governor Ducey signed Senate Bill 1485, which renames Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL) to Active Early Voting List (AEVL). Under this legislation, if a voter on the AEVL actively votes by mail, they will continue to receive an early ballot. If a voter on the AEVL does not return at least one early ballot over the course of four years (two consecutive primary elections and general elections, and any municipal elections that precede them) the voter will be sent a postcard asking if they still want to receive an early ballot.

The county recorder may additionally reach the voter by telephone, text message, or e-mail. Whether a voter opts to remain on the AEVL or not, they remain eligible to request an early ballot or vote in-person, ensuring no voter is ever disenfranchised.
The Governor’s signing of SB 1485 is just one of the many actions he took during the 2021 legislative session to protect Arizona voters. Another is the signing of HB 2569, which prohibits elections officials from using private funding in our elections. And there are many more: 

Signing of SB 1002 – early voting envelopes; party affiliation (Ugenti-Rita)
Specifies that the early ballot envelope must also not reveal the voter’s political party affiliation.

Signing ofSB 1003 – early voting; signature required; notice (Ugenti-Rita)
Requires the county recorder or other officer in charge of elections to make reasonable efforts to contact the elector and advise them of the missing signature on an early ballot envelope.

Signing ofSB 1492 – election law amendments (Shope)
Makes various changes to statute relating to elections including modifications of various deadlines.

Signing of SB 1497 – ballot measures; proposition 105; disclosure (Ugenti-Rita)
Requires for initiatives and referendums that a Proposition 105 notice be printed by the Secretary of State in the publicity pamphlet, in bold-faced type immediately below the Legislative Council analysis of the initiative or referendum.

Signing ofSB 1530 – early ballots; instructions; undeliverable (Mesnard)
Makes a simple change regarding the envelopes that early ballots are mailed in, requiring the envelope that the ballot is mailed in state “If the addressee does not reside at this address, mark the unopened envelope “Return to Sender” and deposit it in the United States Mail.”

Signing ofSB 1714 – campaign expenditures; out of state; disclosures (Mesnard)
Makes several changes and additions to statute regarding campaign expenditures for out-of-state contributors as it relates to advertisements.

Signing ofHB 2054 – voter registration database; death records (Kaiser)
Requires, rather than allows, the Secretary of State to compare the death records transmitted annually by the Arizona Department of Health Services with the Statewide Voter Registration Database.

Signing of HB 2307 – voting equipment; overvote notice (Kavanagh)
Requires the county board of supervisors, if the voting equipment used for an election rejects over-voted ballots or ballots containing irregularities, to provide a written notice on or near the voting equipment in clear view that advises if the voter chooses to override the overvoted office or measure or any other ballot irregularity, then the voter’s vote for that office or measure will not be tallied.

Signing ofHB 2308 – recall petitions and elections; revisions (Kavanagh)
Makes a number of changes to recall petition submissions and circulations as well as to recall elections. The bill creates consistency between initiatives, referenda and recalls. 

Signing ofHB 2359 – election equipment; access; locks (Kavanagh)
Requires voting machines and electronic pollbooks containing data ports, plugs, doors, and other methods of physical or electronic access to be secured in a manner preventing unauthorized access to the voting machine or electronic pollbook during an election.

Veto ofHB 2360 – committee; driver license voter registrations (Kavanagh)
Would have directed the Secretary of State to maintain and operate the driver license voter registration system with a committee of county recorders by December 31, 2021.

Signing of HB 2362 – elections; ballot privacy folders (Kavanagh)
Requires an election board judge to give a ballot privacy folder to a qualified elector along with the elector’s ballot when voting at a polling location. Specifies that a voter is not required to accept or use a ballot privacy folder.

Signing of HB 2363 – municipal election officers; certification training (Kavanagh)
Allows a city or town to train its own election employees if the training program is approved by the Secretary of State.

Signing of HB 2364 – election pamphlet submittals; identification required (Kavanagh)
Adds to the identification requirements for informational and publicity pamphlet submissions for school district override, initiative and bond elections.

Signing of HB 2569 – elections; private funding; prohibition (Hoffman)
Prohibits the state, city, town, county, school district or other public body that conducts or administers elections from receiving or expending private monies for preparing, administering or conducting an election, including registering voters.

Signing ofHB 2794 – election deadlines; modifications prohibited (Hoffman)
Stipulates that a political subdivision, agent or officer of this state or any other governmental entity may not alter or agree to alter any deadline, submittal date, filing date or other election-related date that is provided for in statute.

Signing ofHB 2905– early ballots; request required (Hoffman) 
Prohibits a county recorder, city or town clerk or other election officer from delivering or mailing an early ballot to a person who has not requested an early ballot for that election or a person who is not on the active early voting list. Any violation by an election officer will be classified as a class 5 felony. 

Strengthening our electoral system was not the only legislation enacted that will benefit people all across the state. Arizona is banning critical race theory in schools, implementing historic tax reform, protecting education freedom and more. Details on the reform-centered bills signed into law by the Governor can be found HERE.

Speaker Rusty Bowers Addresses Calls for the Legislature to Overturn 2020 Certified Election Results

STATE CAPITOL, PHOENIX – Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers today issued the following statement:

This week, Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, and others representing President Donald Trump came to Arizona with a breathtaking request:  that the Arizona Legislature overturn the certified results of last month’s election and deliver the state’s electoral college votes to President Trump.  The rule of law forbids us to do that.

Mr. Giuliani and Ms. Ellis made their case here at least twice—on Monday, at an unofficial public gathering hosted by a small group of legislators; and again on Tuesday, during a closed-door meeting at the State Capitol with Republican leaders from both chambers of the Legislature.  Both times, the Trump team made claims that the election was tainted by fraud but presented only theories, not proof.  U.S. Attorney General William P. Barr said on Tuesday that he, too, has “not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome of the election.”

Even if such evidence existed, the Arizona Legislature simply couldn’t do what is being asked.  Under our state’s constitution, the Legislature can act only when it is in session, and the Legislature could call itself into a special session only with the support of a bipartisan supermajority of its members.

That won’t materialize, but even if did, the Legislature couldn’t provide the recourse the President’s team seeks.  The U.S. Constitution authorizes each state to appoint presidential electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.”  For decades, Arizona law has required that the voters elect the state’s electors on Election Day—this year, on November 3rd.  And under a law the Republican-led Legislature passed just three years ago, the state’s electors are required to cast their votes for the candidates who received the most votes in the official statewide election canvass.  Enacted after the 2016 presidential election, in which President Trump won the electoral college but not the popular vote, the law was aimed at ensuring that Arizona’s electors would remain faithful to the vote of the people.

So under current Arizona law, the presidential electors who were elected on November 3 must, after the canvass is completed, vote for the winners of the popular vote.  Nothing in the U.S. Constitution or the decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court even suggests that the Arizona Legislature could retroactively appoint different electors who would cast their ballots for different candidates.  The Trump legal team has cited McPherson v. Blacker (1892), to claim that the legislature can “resume the power [to appoint electors] at any time.”  And it is true that the Arizona Legislature could alter the method of appointing electors prospectively.  But it cannot undo the election of electors whom the voters already voted for.  As the Supreme Court made clear in Bush v. Gore (2000), “[w]hen the state legislature vests the right to vote for President in its people, the right to vote as the legislature has prescribed is fundamental.”

No election is perfect, and if there were evidence of illegal votes or an improper count, then Arizona law provides a process to contest the election: a lawsuit under state law.  But the law does not authorize the Legislature to reverse the results of an election.

As a conservative Republican, I don’t like the results of the presidential election.  I voted for President Trump and worked hard to reelect him.  But I cannot and will not entertain a suggestion that we violate current law to change the outcome of a certified election.

I and my fellow legislators swore an oath to support the U.S. Constitution and the constitution and laws of the state of Arizona.  It would violate that oath, the basic principles of republican government, and the rule of law if we attempted to nullify the people’s vote based on unsupported theories of fraud.  Under the laws that we wrote and voted upon, Arizona voters choose who wins, and our system requires that their choice be respected.

Forty years ago next month, President Ronald Reagan reminded us that while the “orderly transfer of authority” is a “commonplace occurrence” for Americans, “[i]n the eyes of many in the world, this every-4-year ceremony we accept as normal is nothing less than a miracle.”  Now, Americans are being reminded once again never to take for granted what President Reagan correctly described as “the continuity which is the bulwark of our Republic.”

Sal DiCiccio: BLM Mural Backpedaling

Phoenix City Councilman released the following statement Thursday evening regarding a response by City Manager Ed Zuercher to BLM activists:

This is Government Speak for: “Public would have handed us our ass if we allowed the BLM mural to happen.”

Never underestimate political self-preservation.

We Win Again!!!

Sal DiCiccio
City of Phoenix
Councilman, District 6

America Needs Conservative Journalists!

Journalism is among America’s least trusted professions. I know, that’s not a big surprise…

In fact, when asked if they trust the honest and ethical standards of the media, Americans put journalists below most professions, and trust them only slightly more than car salespeople and Congressmen.

Now, more than ever, conservative journalists must use their voices to report the facts and speak over all of the lies. 

If you’re interested in a career in journalism, now is the time to be proactive. 

The Leadership Institute’s annual Journalism Career School will help you succeed in journalism by teaching you the skills to succeed and build your network of conservative journalists. 

Click the link below to learn more and register!
What: Journalism Career School
When: Thursday – Friday, September 17 – 18 | 9:00 AM – 5:30 PM EDT
Where: Online
How to register: Sign up by September 14 for $40!
Register here
Whether you aspire to be on television or pursue a career as a writer, the Journalism Career School will give you the tools to succeed.

You will learn how to:Traditional Journalism: You will learn how to get a job with a publication, build and use contacts in media, and write stories that get you noticed.Broadcast Journalism: You will learn how to get yourself on camera, as well as practice and analyze your television techniques in LI’s studios.Watchdog and Citizen Journalism: You will learn how to build your following online, as well as how to create your own publication and videos that get you noticed!Register today so you don’t miss out!

2020 AZ Primary Early Vote Wrap-Up

What happened and what it means for November

With the primary election tomorrow, we’re giving you our takeaways from the early vote data. There are still tens of thousands of ballots to be cast on Election Day, but the ballots mailed back thus far paint an interesting picture.

Here are the high-level highlights you need to know going into Tuesday:

  • 1,063,828 Ballots Cast
  • 2,316,329 Ballots Requested
  • 45.6% Return Rate
  • 26.7% Turnout
  • 0.9% Democrat Ballot Advantage (representing 9,900 ballots) 

Interesting takeaways: 

  1. Turnout is high: We have seen more overall ballots returned than ever before in a primary election – 1,063,828. As a comparison, we saw about 835,000 ballots returned in 2018 and 682,000 in 2016. While we don’t know yet if these are people who would usually drop their ballots off, we are on pace to hit at least 30% overall turnout.
  2. Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout: While we don’t know how Election Day turnout will fare, we are on pace to see something that we haven’t seen in Arizona in at least the last two decades – more Democratic ballots cast than Republican ballots. There is some hope for Republicans, though, Democrats have 1.4% more of their ballots returned. That 1.4% represents about 15,000 Republican ballots.   
  3. More Independents have cast Democratic ballots than Republican: In Arizona, Independents can choose to vote in either party primary or cast a non-partisan ballot. This year, they have cast a total of 117,845 ballots and about 8,800 more in Democratic primaries than Republican. As a comparison, in the previous two cycles Independents have cast between 10,000 and 12,000 more ballots in Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries.

While primary turnout does not specifically correlate to general election performance, Republicans need a big Election Day performance to mitigate some of these troubling numbers. Democrats have not traditionally had a lot of primary elections – which has driven down their turnout in the last two cycles – but high turnout this year is occurring in places with and without contested primaries on the Democratic side. 
We will have at least one additional update from Maricopa and Pima counties today that can be seen here. Stay tuned for a full debrief post-election to see if these trends from mailed early ballots held or if the trends simply represented Democratic voters mailing in versus dropping off on Election Day because of COVID concerns.

*Data is current as of 8/02/20 at 6:00pm*
Looking ahead to the General Election
 As mentioned before, we decided to share our entire primary ballot tracker with the public but will be providing general election early vote tracking via paid subscription only. We apologize for any confusion we may have caused in our previous email regarding the general election subscription model. We will continue to release basic, high level numbers publicly for the general election (total ballots and party breakdown, statewide only) but for those looking for greater detail and analysis, we will be offering two subscription levels.

Level One will provide full current year breakdowns similar to what is currently shown on our primary election tracker.

Level Two will have comparison data for the previous two cycles and will add in additional filtration features.

If you have any questions or would like to subscribe for the general election tracker, you can contact Data Orbital here

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL: 

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 

Scottsdale Candidate Releases YouTube Ad

Scottsdale City Council candidate Michael Auerbach released the following ad on YouTube called Blue Lives Matter.

Rep. Petersen Introduces Bill to Stop Rollovers of K-12 Funding

STATE CAPITOL, PHOENIX – House Majority Leader Warren Petersen (R-12) issued a statement today regarding legislation he has introduced for the 2020 session that would amend the state constitution to prohibit K-12 rollovers, ensuring that education funding is delivered to our schools on time, and in full. A rollover represents a deferral of the payment from the year in which the obligation was incurred to the next fiscal year.

Rep Warren Petersen
Rep. Warren Petersen (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“In the mid-2000s, Arizona implemented budget gimmicks like K-12 rollovers to counter poor fiscal decisions and a faltering economy,” said Representative Petersen.  “Fortunately, under conservative leadership, Arizona has righted its fiscal ship and the economy is strong.  But we need to be prepared for a future downturn.  Arizona has taken some excellent decisions like paying off debt and amassing a billion-dollar rainy day fund.  Now it’s time to eliminate the K-12 rollover and prevent future utilization.  A statutory change would be too easy to go around.  That’s why I have introduced a constitutional amendment to prohibit the deferment of K-12 payments from one budget year to the next.”