Arpaio will NOT run for Gov.

Despite the hype that Mr. Vath may be trying to create on his blog, I’m pretty certain that Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio will NOT run for Arizona Governor.

What leads me to this conclusion? Well, to the best of my knowledge, Mr. Arpaio hasn’t filed a campaign committee to run for governor yet. I understand that means that the Sheriff can’t collect signatures for the race. In the Governor’s race, one needs to collect around six thousand signatures to qualify to get on the ballot. Tomorrow is April 15th and the dealine to file your nominating petitions is May 26th. So, if Joe were to file tomorrow, he’d need roughly 143 signaturees per day to get qualified for the ballot. If he waits until his May 1st announcement to file a campaign commitee, he’d need roughly 230 signatures per day.

Mr. Vath reported that Joe is looking at professional companies to try to collect signatures for him. Be that as it may, I believe Ken Bennett recently reported that 22 people are in the governor’s race among all the parties. Many of these candidates have been getting signatures for quite a while. So, many of the eligible signatures have already been given out. Considering the mounting number of signatures he’d have to get per day, and the number of candidates and how long they’ve been collecting signatures, I have to conclude that Joe would face a very stiff mountain climb to get enough signatures to get on the ballot even if he hired people to get his signatures. I don’t see the man running a write-in campaign.

One may next say, “What about that $2 million he just raised?” Somehow, I suspect that money will be used for his legal defense when the County Board of Supervisors gets ahold of him. This leads me to another indicator that Joe will not run: not only will other gubernatorial candidates be gunning for Joe based on his utter lack of policy experience, his free spending and other issues, but the County Board will be doing their best to eviscerate Joe as well. Does that really bode well in a gubernatorial contest? When the state spending is too high, will the people really vote for a guy who allows his friends to double dip, buys more helicopters than he needs, and wastes money on a mobile artillery piece?

In audio clips of Joe on the radio, Joe said he wouldn’t be holding a press conference on May 1st so media types couldn’t chide him for conducting another “Joe Show”. He said he would simply issue a press release. If the man were really running for governor, do you really think Jason Rose would allow him to get away with issuing only a press release? Jason would spare no expense conducting the world’s largest circus, replete with acrobats, jugglers, bearded ladies, fireworks and Russian bears riding unicycles, with Joe in the center ring.

When has Joe ever shied away from being the center of media attention? How many times has he let warrants pile up and then put on a big media show about apprehending all those criminals he allowed to roam free? How many gubernatorial election years in a row has he made noise about running for governor? It is against Joe Arpaio’s very nature not to try to grab headlines. His statement that he’s just going to issue a press release is a dead give that he’s not going to run.

My ultimate guess: Joe will be announcing his retirement on May 1st.

Come May, I invite all of you back here to throw rotten vegetables at me if I’m wrong, or to watch me gloat when I am proven correct.


Comments

  1. Joe’s not running because the Supervisors would get to appoint his replacement and any competent Sheriff would come in and audit the entire department and the next thing you know, Joe and Hendershott would be in jail.

  2. Stephen Kohut says

    All the Republican’s running are praying that Joe does not run. That would be the most popular politician in the state getting into the race with the one issue, criminal aliens, that gathers over 70% of the vote on every ballot measure. This post smells like a wish by one of those already running.

  3. If you are correct and Joe uses the $2million dollars he has raised for legal defense, would that be a similar misdirection of funds such as Don Stapley did? How could he use money he raised for a political campaign in a legal defense fund?

  4. ^

    No. 3 above is a different Jane.

    Although, this Jane thinks that a similar question should be put to John McCain. I’ve wondered whether McCain is using money previously collected for another purpose to run for re-election to the Senate. Btw, I would vote for Joe as sheriff or governor.

  5. maybeimamazed says

    Sheriff Joe could get the signatures in 48 hours. That’s not the problem.

  6. @Stephen Kohut
    Your guess that my post is done by a current gubernatorial campaign (or his staff) is a decent guess, but it’s not the case. This post is my personal guess/analysis on Joe getting into the race.

    One thing I meant to put in teh post is that Joe running would be horrible for Republicans. It would mobilize the Left to turn out to the polls. We need them to stay home.

  7. From Jane of comment no 4:

    “One thing I meant to put in teh post is that Joe running would be horrible for Republicans. It would mobilize the Left to turn out to the polls. We need them to stay home.”
    ____

    That’s a queer conclusion. By the same brand of logic, Joe running would mobilize a large turn out of conservatives.

  8. Stephen Kohut says

    Maltorus,

    Joe would easily take the +70% of Arizonans that consistently vote yes on every ballot measure to control criminal aliens. That equaes to a landside. This is a conservative grassroots year. The liberal left will not turn out.

  9. Double Decaf Latte says

    OMG…if you thought the left hated Ev Mecham

  10. Joe is retiring. After hearing his speech at the Gilbert TEA Party, I might add, it’s none too soon. He slipped and said he was running for senate and then remembered JD was running and had to think about it.

    He rambled on about shooting down airplanes with his tank, but said he wouldn’t shoot down commercial aircraft, but couldn’t remember the name of our hometown airline – or any airline. He regaled the crowd with a discussion about the density and color of his hair and then quickly mumbled something about lower taxed. Not good.

    Joe should have trained an excellent replacement to keep up some of his creative ideas and then retired about 6 years ago. It’s not too late to make a decent exit. May 1st works for me.

  11. @Jane
    No, it’s not a strange conclusion. What I truly want is for conservatives to have strong candidates in the race and I want the voter base for the right to be energized while I want the left’s voter base uncaring, demoralized and not energized. If Joe is in the race, the left will jump at the chance to brand him a racist and he will act as a lightning rod, attracting liberals to the polls. Will Joe incentivize more conservativs to turn out this year than the general displeasure with Obama? I don’t think so. But he certainly will motivate liberals to show up and vote against him. In close races, that could be the difference between a Republican picking off a Democrat or an upset conservative victory. Joe in the race will help keep Democrats in office because of his polarizing persona.

    @Stephen Kohut
    I think you make a mistaken generalization stating that all 70% of those who vote for anti-illegal immigration measures will vote for Joe. I’m sure there will be many conservatives, especially fiscal conservatives, that will not vote for Joe. Also, being a one-issue candidate, and that’s what Joe is, will not serve him well in teh gubernatorial primary. Immigration may be a hot issue, but the budget fight is a little bigger right now I surmise (yes, immigration is a portion of the budget battle). Additionally, I think the County Board will spare no expense in trying to sink Joe. I think the negative media from the left and the Board will be intense.

    But to both Jane and Stephen, May 1st will tell. Again, I invite you all to come back then to deride me or watch me gloat.

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