2011 Politics

There’s an interesting analysis over at the Democratic Blog, Swing State Project, in which “Nathaniel90” gives an assessment on how the congressional districts will be drawn up in 2011 to accomodate Arizona’s shifting demographics. Here’s a map and his assessment:

District 1 – Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) — still rural with the highest Native American population in the state. Personally, as someone who is admittedly ignorant about Hopi/Navajo history, I think it unfortunate that the tribes insist on being separated, since moving the Hopi reservation into this district would put its Native population over 25% and possibly close to 30%, a clear VRA opportunity when coupled with the district’s Hispanic and other minority populations.

District 2 – Trent Franks (R-Glendale) — though it appears rural, this district is a lot more Maricopa County-heavy than one might assume.

District 3 – John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) — Republican neighborhoods of Phoenix and suburban Maricopa County keep Shadegg in the clear, for the near future at least.

District 4 – Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix) — combines the Latino neighborhoods of Phoenix to remain a strong VRA seat.

District 5 – Harry Mitchell (D-Tempe) — as before, this comprises traditionally Republican Phoenix suburbs that are trending the other way with time. In Mitchell’s current 5th, Obama garnered a respectable 47%, though I haven’t a clue how he would have fared in my 5th since my method is so low-tech and crude.

District 6 – Jeff Flake (R-Mesa) — weary though I am of this guy and his precious privileged resolutions, this 6th would stay safe for him.

District 7 – Raúl Grijalva (D-Tucson) — if the Hispanic pop. is under 50-55% in this proposed Maricopa-free iteration (and it may indeed be), then it is worth a reconfiguration, this time using 2008 stats. Regardless how accurate my map may or may not be, the commission will ensure a VRA majority-Hispanic seat for Grijalva.

District 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson) — now very Tucson-dominated and free of Hispanic-majority Santa Cruz County.

The new District 9 – anchored in Pinal County with significant chunks of Maricopa and Pima for a Republican-leaning suburban/exurban seat between Phoenix and Tucson.

The new District 10 – entirely within southwest Maricopa County, possibly Hispanic opportunity (but cannot dilute the Hispanic pop. in District 7, so I question whether the commission would draw something quite like this…I’m a bit more certain of the rough boundaries for a new GOP seat in District 9).

(Read the full post at Swing State Project.)



  1. Veritas Vincit says

    Interesting, but I doubt, due to the deflation in the state’s Hispanic population in the past couple of years, they’ll be two new Congressional districts. In all likelihood I would expect one new district.

    Quite likely what the map shows as #9 more or less.

    If anything CD1 should be reconfigured and CD 7 should be reconfigured – both are too large and out of balance.

    Cheap shot of the evening: Raúl Grijalva is a total embarrassment to the people of Arizona.

  2. As always Veritas very little facts just you guess, if you look at Election Data Services they use 5 different models to project 2010 reapportionment of seats and in all of them Arizona picks up 2.


    The table is on page 8

  3. Veritas Vincit says

    Johnny, you confuse human action with a “computer model”. Had the computer models been utilized, CD-1 would look a bit different than it does today. Human inputs will always trump computer models.

    I was deeply involved in the last Redistricting Commission’s work.

  4. I am not talking about the makeup of the districts or what the redistricting would look like you said… “Interesting, but I doubt, due to the deflation in the state’s Hispanic population in the past couple of years, they’ll be two new Congressional districts. In all likelihood I would expect one new district.”

    When all of these models are to the contrary to that statement.

  5. Interestingly, the most populous Congressional district in the country is currently AZ-06. I suspect Rep. Flake would like to be rid of the increasingly Latino parts of Mesa although his district is currently very safe.

    I would like to see fewer “safe” seats for either party. Essentially minority-party voters are currently disenfranchised in at least four of the eight CD’s, and thus the opposing candidates there are often jokes, like Don Karg.

    It’s understandable that both parties like the arrangement where they have to defend as few seats as possible, but it’s not fair for the voters.

    My friend, former Rep. (and 1980 independent candidate for President) John B. Anderson, as well as Prof. Lani Guinier, have interesting proposals for changing the current situation where the vast majority of U.S. House seats are essentially uncontested, such as multi-member districts, preferential voting, etc. But I am sure they are all wish dreams.

    It would be great, though, if the state parties actually took at least a mild interest in putting up credible candidates in the districts that are basically unwinnable.

    I would encourage conservative Republicans who are more intelligent than recent GOP candidates in the majority-Latino districts 4 and 7 — like the people associated with this blog — consider running for Congress in these districts in 2010. Do you really want someone like Don Karg being the Republican standard-bearer for the fourth election cycle in a row?

  6. How do candidates like that get people to sign their petitions anyway? Or do they just make up signatures and because nobody challenges them, they get on the ballot with a free pass?

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