Where to from here?

There is no doubt that McCain’s win in Florida was big. The state was hotly contested and his 5% margin was convincing. I do not mean to sound like on of our other writers, who we understand will be taking a few days off to “adjust his attitude”, but there is one interesting thing I noted in the Florida numbers. The top Republican vote getter is still in the mid-30s. With 7 candidates in the race at the time McCain won New Hampshire with 37% of the vote. Eleven days latter McCain scored another big win in South Carolina with 33% of the vote. Yesterday, with 5 candidates in the race, McCain won Florida with 36% of the vote. That is 1% less than he won on January 8 with two more candidates in the primary.

I am not predicting that someone besides McCain will win the nomination. Rather I am pointing out that while McCain is clearly the frontrunner he has a little more work to do before he locks up the nomination. Giuliani has all but withdrawn and endorsed McCain. Interestingly Huckabee looks like he is staying in. He is ahead in several Southern states and knows how to operate without much money.

The big question is where does Romney go from here. He has a few safe states on February 5th. Does he pour in the funds to compete in other states? At one time we thought Arizona might have been competitive. At this point, with winner take all, I would not spend much money on the state. That leaves some states like California with a winner take all by district and other western and mid-west states with caucus meetings. The primary is not over but it is getting there slowly.


Comments

  1. Gov. Romney won the Jacksonville and Orlando areas decisively and would have won the Florida primary except for his stand on immigration. I have two friends from law school, both Hispanic state legislators, who supported McCain because of his moderate stand on immigration. As Robert Novak wrote today,

    “South Florida’s large Republican Hispanic vote delivered for McCain, signifying another case where Romney’s hard line on immigration backfired. The state’s three Cuban-American congressional members appeared with McCain in Miami’s “Little Havana.”

    The Cuban-American vote was pinned down with the endorsement by Sen. Mel Martinez, the national Republican party’s former chairman. More lethal than a mere endorsement was the word spread by Martinez that he considers Romney a demagogue because of his tough stand against the immigration bill co-sponsored by McCain and Martinez.”

  2. Speaking of immigration, is anybody else bothered by the fact that County Attorney Andrew Thomas is listed as part of McCain’s “Campaign Leadership Team?” I fear that the once tough on illegal immigration Thomnas might be softening a little bit too much. I’m afraid he’s tossed his hat in with the establishment and forgotten the grassroots of the Party.

    Here’s the full list:

    http://politicomafioso.blogspot.com/2008/01/arizona-leaders-join-supporters-of-john.html

  3. Richard,

    That is so wrong. Crist and Martinez were the deciding factors in Florida, not Romney’s anti-illegal immigration stance. Exit polls said that for people for whom the immigration issue was important – including those on both sides of the issue – supported Romney overwhelmingly.

    McCain’s “moderate” stance on immigration????? That is a 1984 Newspeak revisionist portrayal of McCain/Kyl/Kennedy. I have not even heard CNN or MSNBC have the audacity to call that load of legislative crap “moderate”.

    I guess the left-wing world-view open-border reconquista propaganda machine is alive and well. You can say it, but that don’t make it so!

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