Unbeatable?

Chair.bmp

     Is Gabrielle’s support shaky? As Matt at SED sometimes does he wrote a very long-winded piece that I did not fully comprehend. The comment from Liza provided a little more insight.

Please tell me again what the outstanding accomplishments of Ms. Giffords actually are. As I recall, she went to college, she worked somewhere back east for a few months, she got a phone call about her father’s health problems, she put on her cowboy boots, she got in her truck, she turned on the ignition, she drove back to Tucson, she worked in the family businesses, she was elected to the state legislature where she didn’t do anything particularly noteworthy except fundraising for higher office, and then she was elected to represent CD8 in the House of Representatives.

Don’t miss the story about Giffords in the Style section of the New York Times.


Comments

  1. Geeeez!!!

    I was just having fun!

    If you haven’t noticed, I enjoy an occasional obtuse post that explores various distinctions and ideas.

    The event is not complete without reading my responses to Liza.

    Oh, Giffords is going to kick Bee’s butt, but don’t tell her. I don’t want her to get overconfident.

  2. Oro Valley Dad says

    I did not mean to slam you. Good job on picking up the Giffords story in the Times. We hope that our readers look at Liza’s comment and your response.

    It is hard to comment on the Bee/Giffords race since Bee has not yet entered the field. Certainly he will have to run a flawless campaign but I still do not buy the line that Gabrielle is invincible.

  3. OVD,

    No worries and no slam interpreted.

    I consider dialog healthy. You do realize Liza is left of Giffords and shares my esteem for Eggplant. Liza can speak for herself, if you hadn’t noticed.

    No freshman is “invincible” especially against a very respectable opponent like Bee. Do I think she will win? Yes. A cakewalk? Absolutely not. Like LD 26, CD 8 is hard for a Democrat.

    Just curious. I’m a no kidding Independent. My radar returns pretty good material for Paton, stating he is sharp, learning and growing. Am I wrong?

  4. Oro Valley Dad says

    Paton is a shoe-in for LD-30 senate. I am assuming that is what you meant.

  5. Great, our chances depend on Nathan Sproul running “a perfect campaign”? We’re hosed.

  6. Oh John, bless your heart! Have some confidence in the man, in the message, and better yet in the people. Have you seen the polls lately? The change vote of ’06 is nothing compared to the momentum behind the change vote of ’08. They gave the Dems a chance and well, you said it…they got hosed which is nothing compared to what they will get if the Dems stay in office. Every congressional campaign in America will be saying the same thing.

    Tim Bee can, and I believe will, get that message out there. Voters will be wide awake and paying attention.

    Do not let your heart be troubled!

  7. Oro Valley Dad says

    I have to agree with Ann, at least partly. The Dems have to answer to the voters for having controlled both chambers of congress and not having changed much.

    It has been challenging because we all have a sense that Tim will be the nominee but he is not yet a candidate. That may soon change and luckily the voters are not paying much attention at this time. Giffords will most likely have a money advantage but her record has been unremarkable. The candidate with the best message will win and I would rather run on Tim’s record than on Gabrielle’s.

  8. I believe in the man (Bee), not the man (Sproul). The message depends on the both of them because your consultant matters. Witness Len Munsil’s message. Witness the Marriage Amendment’s message. Having trouble remembering those messages? Its not your fault, no one remembers those messages. That was the problem, much more than the messengers themselves.

    Is there a chance? Sure. Bee might ditch Sproul or minimize his role, turning over the crucial message and spending decisions to a real pro. I’m rooting for Bee, that’s for sure, and my checkbook will follow, if those changes are made. Otherwise, I’ll give to the GOP nominee in CD5 instead.

  9. The Navigator says

    Oro Valley Dad,

    No offense, but when you say “did not fully” comprehend x4mr’s story, you displayed great capacity for understatement.

    It is not clear you understood a word of it, but you understood Liza’s reply very well.

    Allow me to translate x4mr’s question about Jonathon Paton.

    As a human being, as a person, as a politician seeking office and wishing to serve, is Jonathon Paton experiencing significant growth in his wisdom, his knowledge of the world, his grasp of effective action, his ability to produce results, his spiritual maturity?

    Is growth and development occurring in such a way that if six months pass between seeing him, you can notice a difference?

    Or is he just the same John Paton he was last year, the year before that?

    Bush is the same idiot we elected in 2000.

  10. I hear you, John. The Marriage Amendment may have been too far reaching in it’s construction, which cost votes. Also, a very crowded ballot makes rising to the top of the “what affects me most” list very difficult. Then, there was the root of all evil…the love of money. A very well funded counter-campaign against a campaign that relied on a national movement with little funding. Lots of hurdles, no doubt. Where Sproul did or did not get the job done, I don’t know. I do know it was a very difficult ballot if your issue was anything other than immigration.

    Tim has done this before, not at this level but he knows campaigns and campaigning. I do not expect him to be the candidate novice Munsil was. There was some personal decisions and some absolute logistical burdens, like campaign funding. But, I agree there were some strategic moves that I did not agree with and felt cost him.

    Tim should be a different story. Hang in there.

  11. I’m hanging! And, thanks to you, my heart is not troubled…

    So, who is the mystery Democrat candidate for the House in LD12 you kept writing about?

  12. Oro Valley Dad says

    Navigator,

    Sorry to admit that not only did I not fully understand x4mr I also do not understand you.

    Sure Paton is growing in experience and knowledge. Hopefully we all are.

    I am not sure about Bush being the same as in 2000. I sure liked him more back then.

  13. Last I heard (couple of weeks ago) he was still very actively pursuing support but according to the SoS has yet to pull a packet. I have no problem giving up his name, I just don’t want to give legs to something until need be. If he goes full force, I still contend he will give Steve Montenegro trouble. I’ve known the guy for many years and he is no pushover. A Dem but a nice guy. An attorney, active in the community, has been on the ballot before and won, name recognition, and has no problem making his point. Nothing against Steve, he is a very nice young man, just not ready for prime time and will be overshadowed by an aggressive and knowledgeable candidate.

    I will be meeting with some folks in the district this week…I’ll see what is up and if it looks like it is a go, I’ll send it over to DSW.

  14. Navigator,

    What in the world are you doing over here?! This is Sonoran Alliance you idiot!! Get your blogger butt back where it belongs. If you want to walk around go to Sirocco’s or Eli Blake’s.

    I concur Paton secures his seat easily and have already said so. The races that I think will be very interesting are CD5, CD8 and LD26.

    I have not inquired into Lara’s health situation and whether it is a factor, but last I heard she is serious about keeping her seat. I think the GOP has a very good shot at Charlene if you stay away from someone the district considers too radical.

    Carol Somers will be looking for something to do because SAIAT is closing this month. She can run a good campaign, but last I heard, she said forget about her running again.

  15. Oro Valley Dad says

    x4mr,

    If that is your response when someone makes a comment I shudder to think what you will do to Navigator if you comes to the next cigar event.

  16. kralmajales says

    Bee is toast…with butter.

    His record and campaign is based on the ability to say what he has brought southern Arizona in pork, his support for the tax that brought us Rio Nuevo on a stick, and that he is some kind of fiscal conservative.

    Well guess what, our state is in the hock…$800 million. They are meeting about cuts, cuts, cuts, which will not reflect well on his ability to deliver for S. Arizona…much less the fact that his Senate Presidency presided over enormous fiscal irresponisbility.

    I suspect he will try to save such things as UA South, and a host of other programs to S. Arizona, while getting hammered by conservative Republicans and the Governor.

    The fact that he must run a flawless campaign is clear. He has to beat an incumbent. 95% of which win re-election. Those who lose such races, no matter what his moronic advisors say to him, are never heard from again in politics.

    Look at McNulty and the host of people that challenged Kolbe…where are they now? HUH?

    Bee, don’t be a fool.

  17. Karamargin, ooh, I’m sorry, “kralmajales” isn’t it…hooey on you. Somehow I don’t sense your concern for Tim’s well being as much as I sense your fear that Gabby’s going to get her political ass handed to her. Gabby benefitted from a split party in 2006. We’ll see how that plays out in 2008. I’m not too worried. She would have had to have run a flawless TERM….which she didn’t….in spades.

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