The “Mother” of All October Surprises?

Here is a copy of an email that is all over the Internet:

On or about October 5th, Biden will excuse himself from the ticket, citing health problems, and he will be replaced by Hillary. This is timed to occur after the VP debate on 10/2. There have been talks all weekend about how to proceed with this info. Generally, the feeling is that we should all go ahead and get it out there to as many blog sites and personal email lists as is possible. I have already seen a few short blurbs about this – the ‘health problem’ cited in those articles was aneurysm. Probably many of you have heard the same rumblings.
However, at this point, with this inside info from the DNC, it looks like this Obama strategy will be a go. Therefore, it seems that the best strategy is to get out in front of this Obama maneuver, spell it out in detail, and thereby expose it for the grand manipulation that it is.
So, let’s start mixing this one up and cut the Obamites off at the pass – send this info out to as many people as you can – post about it on websites and blogs – etc.

I decided to do a Google blog search on the words “Biden” and “aneurysm” and came up with all types of posts all related to the same email.

I then went to Snopes to check out their take on the email and here is their response:

Status: Undetermined

…It’s difficult to definitively prove a negative, but rumors of Biden’s replacement as a VP candidate seem to be nothing more than e-mail chatter at this point, and reports of Biden’s health issues in the press appear to be mostly biographical mentions that he was hospitalized in 1988 after suffering from two brain aneurysms.  No presidential candidate has switched running mates in the middle of a campaign since George McGovern replaced Thomas Eagleton with Sargent Shriver just 18 days after the 1972 Democratic convention (Eagleton stepped down when reports surfaced that he had previously been hospitalized for nervous exhaustion and received electroshock therapy), with disastrous results: McGovern lost in an electoral landslide. A strategy of calculatedly springing a change of running mates on the public just before an election carries the danger of proving a double-edged sword: Whatever boost Barack Obama’s campaign might conceivably gain by swapping Joe Biden for Hillary Clinton just a month before the general election might also be more than offset by criticism that such a last-minute switch demonstrated poor decision-making ability and was indicative of a weak and vacillating presidential candidate.


  1. Thank you for bringing common sense to the issue.

  2. Precinct Committeeman says

    I think that the trial balloon floated a few weeks ago by Biden indicated this would not be an acceptable alternative. So, talk of Biden not being the “better” choice died immediately.

    It would make the campaign look poorly managed and destroy any chance of Obama winning. So, I would be very surprised if this wishful thinking were to ever come about.

  3. Wishful thinking.

  4. These are very similar to the rumors that McCain was going to step aside just before the republican convention citing “health concerns” there is nothing to this rumor either…

  5. GOP Boomer Gal says

    Wishful thinking by whom? Biden is a GIFT to the GOP. And soooo much fun to watch on the trail.

  6. Wooden Teeth says

    By October 5th (?) plenty of people in Arizona will have already started voting.

    This topic does serve a purpose, and it’s to show that the electoral college does serve a function. If something happens to Biden, the D’s can just have the electoral college make someone else VP in December. If that causes electors to switch from the R to the D side, or write in Hillary for VP instead of Biden, you’ really have some excitement going.

    Same with McCain. If something happens to him before the college casts their vote the whole thing is up for grabs. Ahhh, so McCain uses Palin to help get popular votes but when the college votes in December he swaps in Romney!

    So I’m all for people generating crazy theories, but if you had any idea what was technically possible, well, truth is stranger than fiction. This is not a democracy.

  7. What trick will the media and Democrats pull for the October surprise?

    Shane — how about creating an open thread asking readers to put up their best ideas for the Oct surprise.

  8. One of my favorite bloggers from Iowa says this is the October surprise –

    The October surprise!

    Guess who will finally be capture, or killed, just prior to the November elections?
    Hint: He’s tall, dark, very sick, and he smells of Donkeys!

  9. Yah, Ron…and unless is is John McCain doin the capturing, it wil just remind everyone that the Iraq policy made it take about 8 years to get him.

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