The Fairy Tale is Over, JD is Simply Unelectable

The ability of any American to run for office, and even get elected, can be attested to by looking at the South Carolina Democratic Senatorial Primary.  Alvin Greene, a no name, no money, no experience, no web site, no yard signs, nobody won the primary and will be the Democratic candidate for Senator in November.  Nothing to know, nothing to dislike is one theory of his victory.  Of course, he will face Jim DeMint…so his chances are less than slim but he did win the primary.  

Those kinds of stories are rare and even less likely when the candidate is a previously defeated, scandal plagued, infomercial huckster. Plenty to know, plenty to…well, I think you get my drift.  But, this is America!  Any citizen, meeting the age and other requirements who is not a felon can run for office.   Getting elected…now, that is another story.

Children believe in stories of magic and amazing outcomes, they are called fairy tales.  Throw some magic beans out the window and  POOF!  A goose that lays golden eggs is in your future!  Desire to go to the ball and VOILA!  A fairy godmother appears and little mice sew you a beautiful gown and a pumpkin becomes a carriage!  Make the story full of villains and evil, cast a bad guy and a hero, throw in a sweet damsel to the mix.  Oh, how sweet.  How wonderful.  How not true…or even close.

In the real world, facts cannot be dismissed with soaring rhetoric and highly charged words.  Eventually, the truth will be seen and reality must set in.  Data is what it is, cold and hard but true.  Wishing on a star will not make your poll numbers increase.  And, I’m sorry Virginia but…

Speaking of poll numbers….the results are in and according to the Hayworth campaign, the big poll that really matters…Rasmussen, says JD is toast.  Really dry, burnt toast.

Arizona Senate – Republican Primary

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Hayworth (R) Spread
RCP Average 6/22 – 7/21 56.7 27.3 McCain +29.4
Rasmussen Reports 7/21 – 7/21 595 LV 54 34 McCain +20
Behavior Research Center 6/30 – 7/11 LV 64 19 McCain +45
Magellan Strategies (R) 6/22 – 6/22 1139 LV 52 29 McCain +23

 

This poll has been out for a few days now.  And while I was very excited, not surprised but excited, to see it …I didn’t want to rub it in.  Really.  I thought, maybe JD will get it and decide to “spend more time with his family”.  Maybe those around him who value his “style” will realize how damaging this campaign is to his future and maybe theirs, too.   Being a two-time loser hurts badly and basically eliminates any chance of a future race.  LOSER is a title no one wants to be stuck with.  Voter confidence in the candidate’s ability to win is essential…this is not how to get there.  The talk now is not “if” JD will lose but just how badly he will lose.  Falling personal stock is not good for one’s future earning ability.

But, apparently the delusional mindset of Team Hayworth persists.  After the debates, JD’s TV and radio ads, the man-horse marriage thing, the no war declaration on Germany fiasco, the birther episode, his “buyer beware”  video, and after everyone had a really good opportunity to be reminded of why JD achieved the nickname of “Foghorn Leghorn” and got to see his “bully” act live via the debates….we have a measure of the public response.

SO…here it is.  What Rachel Alexander, of Team Hayworth, called a “realistic” poll.  For the third straight time, a poll shows Senator McCain ahead of JD by 20+ points.  With early ballots in mailboxes and election day just a few weeks away, it is time to admit it.  This one will not end “happily ever after” for Team Hayworth, it is time to say…THE END.   


Comments

  1. Maybe JD should drop out now and give his
    support to Deakin.

  2. If you’re right Molly, it’s a sad day for Arizona that we’re stuck with this utter RINO heel for a Senator for another six long hot miserable years where we can expect him to cozy up with all of his Washington-establishment and Democrat friends like Russ Fiengold and Lindsey Gramnesty and betray Republicans and the Constitution time, and time, and time again. It will be further proof to me that Arizona voters haven’t got A CLUE about what they’re doing at the polls. It will prove that they can be lied to every six years and they’ll buy that McStain is a conservative hook, line, and sinker every time.

  3. Mr. Mustachio :{O says

    Meg, I doubt Deakin would want a JD endorsement.

  4. nightcrawler says

    As a moderate this news is encouraging, however I wouldn’t get too smug at the moment. Three weeks in this political environment is a long time. A lot can happen in the news cycles between now and Aug 24th. The election isn’t today. I am sure the JD team will use such a post a bulletin board material. America is the land of the underdog, especially in these times.

  5. Nice post Jeff. If McCain wins, I am worried about the Republican Party in Arizona. McCain will make sure illegals get comprehensive amnesty and the Democrats will have enough voters take away our majority. McCain will also go and conspire with the democrats (like he has done twice before) to push cap and trade and our electric bills and gas prices will sky rocket. There will be a lot of disgusted Republicans who leave the party because they see that all the leaders of the party say they are conservative but are too weak to stand up to McCain. We will deserve what we get…..

  6. Carl Hay says

    Molly,

    Your post kind of reminds me of Hitler’s jig.

    Yes, he was riding hight at the time and celebrating, much as you are celebrating.

    But, the war against big government (which McCain supports – notice his vote for TARP), is not one battle.

    Yes, we know you and McCain favor amnesty, but the people of America will not give in to your program.

    Yes, you want conservatives to ‘give up,’ and leave the field to RINOs like you and McCain.

    Well, conservatives may not win every battle (we’re realistic), but we not surrender.

    As Churchill once put it, we will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER give up!

  7. Lewis Lee says

    I for one do not believe that this election is over yet at all. After all we have seen polls be wrong before. I take it that you will be voting for McCain given that you are advocating for JD to give up. My thinking is that JD is much better, warts and all, the John McCain. I could care less about an info ad he was in and just about every other thing McCain has said about JD. Is he perfect no. Is he better then McCain YES. I vote based on 2nd Amendment, immigration, fiscal policy (Spending), and life issues. JD is much better in these areas than McCain.

    Today, when I vote in the privacy of my home, I will be voting for JD. He had my vote from the moment he announced and McCain has not made the point of why I should return him to Washington.

  8. Michael Holliday says

    Probably the most enjoyment I’ve had in a long time has been watching John McAmnesty getting his a** handed to him twice by JD Hayworth in the debates.

    The look on McCain’s face after the first debate was friggen’ priceless: McCain looked like a spoiled bully who had finally been slapped and had his stolen candy taken away by an adult. Ha, ha! PRICELESS!

    The debates alone made the whole Hayworth race worth it!

    Also, it’s been a pleasure watching McCain dump $10 million into taking on a better conservative candidate.

    JD said it best, if McCain had fought Maobama as hard as he fought JD, he’d be president right now. That’s a fact!

    But then again, nobody wants a quitter in the White House.

    Fight on JD! It’s not over until it’s over.

    And when it is over, we all know that unlike McCain, we can always count on you to never give in to Regularization, amnesty or comprehensive immigration reform since they are indivisible with tyranny and injustice for all!

    Forget about the polls, it’s too late in the game to pay attention to them. Drive on and let the chips fall…

    Ignore Hanoi Molly, she’s a dissonant voice for the Grinch that stole borders, language and culture…

  9. James Davidson says

    McCain deserved to get beat — for a lot of reasons. Unfortunately, J.D. has proven himself not up to it — for a lot of reasons. So, the fight for smaller government and the rule of law continues — but on other fronts.

    Democracy, the rule of law, and limited government never have been easy to win or keep, and thank God for the brave American men and women of all generations since at least 1757 who have sacrificed to give us what we have today.

  10. This is a great post but the message will never be understood by the typical Hayworth supporter. They can’t seem to grasp the concept that the one who gets the most votes wins the election.

  11. Molly is probably the most astute writer at this blog, and her piece is spot on. McCain will TROUNCE Hayworth and badly. 20+ points.

    McCain will also slap the Democrat he faces in the general. I think McCain has sold out virtually everything he had to sell, and should have retired in 2008, but like him or not, he will easily, easily, easily keep his seat.

    The man will probably remain in office for life.

  12. Michael’s type of support exemplifies Hayworth and is exactly why this post is correct. JD and his fanatical supporters wave their flag around like it is theirs alone. They alone are endowed with the correctness to determine who passes muster to be in their “club”.

    Do not ask them about their bad acts, oh no! They can equivocate and marginalize like no other….but will hold your feet to the fire for even daring to think out of their definition of absolute devotion to their ideals du joir.

    The huge majority of people, whether they really like McCain or not, dislike that sort of behavior even more.

    As for the debates…

    JD couldn’t stand behind the podium but had to lean over toward McCain, even moving way from the podium. Looks like a bully.

    Calling names and assigning fault to issues that do not belong. Never referencing him by his title despite Sen. McCain’s use of the words Mr. & Congressman. Sounds like a bully.

    Walks around all puffed up and pushes his way thru. Walks like a bully.

    If it looks like a bully, talks like a bully, and walks like a bully…it is a BULLY! His followers are no different.

    Every day JD sends votes to McCain. Michael will do the same thing on the air tomorrow.

  13. I prefer to let the election decide.

    This tactic is pretty simple and we watch it every time we turn on a prize fight or a sports games. Cram face into camera, until the lens fogs, and “Yell, YO! Gonna CRUSH YOU. YO!” Sometimes that’s the result, sometimes the boasting guy turns around and walks right into the wall.

    Bluff and demoralise your opponent so he gives up or even *hope* he withdraws before the fight starts. JD has nothing to lose and everything to gain by fighting through the last second.

  14. You can criticize all you want, but in some ways JD’s been successful. Sure, it’s a winner-take-all election but ask those that eke out victories if they really have the freedom to do whatever they want once if office. The margin of victory is proportional to going AWOL on the electorate: big margin, no accountability.

    Many people want McCain to win, by one vote. So the more McCain claims a big lead, the more freedom voters have to vote for JD. That’s how upsets happen — overconfidence.

  15. So, I’m wondering. McCain has admitted in his own published words that he lies.

    And McCain supporters want us to vote for a self-confessing, unrepentent liar.

    Why? We are to knowingly support sin? “The wages of sin are death.”
    A bit awkward, selling out one’s soul for someone else, and amongst our rewards will be amnesty for millions of also self-admitted liars and laws-dodgers.

    If Americans accept this in lazy, nililistic apathy, then we deserve the chaos, because we could have chose differently.

  16. Michael Holliday says

    #Ann Says:
    July 31st, 2010 at 9:09 am

    You: Michael’s type of support exemplifies Hayworth and is exactly why this post is correct. JD and his fanatical supporters wave their flag around like it is theirs alone. They alone are endowed with the correctness to determine who passes muster to be in their “club”.
    _____

    Me: Yawn…turns over…scratches his ears three times, sniffles, opens one eye, sees that it’s Ann making noise and says, “Oh, it’s you”…then falls lazily back onto a fluffy pillow with a tag on it that reads “Made in America,” and into a deep and happy sleep.

    Michael dreams whistful, sugar plum dreams of Sheriff Joe Arpaio and JD Hayworth locking up illegal alien criminals and keeping us all safe and secure and happy and prosperous.

    Meanwhile, the Grinch that stole our borders, language and culture, John McCain, sports a Jiffy Pop-looking, Brown La Raza beret and whistles the Socialist Internationale in Esperanzo while washing dishes at the Waffle House on Bell Rd. after his defeat at the polls. Amen!

    🙂

  17. Michael Holliday says

    OPEN INVITATION:

    I will be filling in for Dave Darin on KKNT 960 AM The Patriot, Sunday night from 8-9 p.m.

    Any of you McCain-bots want to call in and voice your opinion, feel free.

    I’ll be putting the good word out about JD Hayworth and invite you to call in and tell me why John McCain’s “regularization” of illegal aliens is a good idea.

    Especially since 70% of Arizonans supported SB 1070 version I and not McCain’s defacto amnesty with conditions.

    All keyboard warriors welcome!

  18. The Mole says

    Isn’t it telling that McCain can generate this much hate and discontent within the Republican Party? I have never seen a candidate hated some much by his own party. There are always disagreements, but this goes far beyond.

    McCain has long ago worn out his welcome. His goal now is to retain power at all cost. That means us. He uses his money and trolls to isolate dissension and counts on the apathy of the average uninformed voter. He see them as well trained rats that will continue to vote for him like they were hitting the feeder bar.

    I have some news. The TeaParty activist might change that equation for him. If the movement is a true power this election, you might be surprised when they come to the polls. McCain cannot trick them and most will not support him. But they will vote.

  19. Hey Mole,

    Per Rasmussen just last week:

    “McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of Arizona’s Likely Primary Voters, Hayworth by 41%.”

    More people dislike JD than like him. OUCH! With early ballots out that is not good, I don’t care how you spin it.

    You need to get out of your hole in the ground a litle more.

  20. The Mole says

    Hey Ann,

    There is a big difference between being viewed favorably in a poll and the hate McCain generates within the Party activist. When your own team hates you that much you, it’s time to go or change teams.

    You should understand. Despite your support from the Congressional delegation and McCain, you lost the State chairman’s race twice! Please don’t waste your time with a third attempt.

  21. Did anyone in this group go to the McCain townhall at the El Conquistador Hotel. It was pathetic. John McCain had trouble answering questions. He needed Senator Kyle to help him. He never answered the question about Amnesty. He skirted all around it. I hate to say this but I think John McCain is LOOSING IT. Do we want a Senator who is taking lots of medication and yelling at his Staff, saying “He demands to be Senator” “It is HIS”. I don’t think so. He has truly changed not only his position, but he is not the man he was when he started. He should register as a DEMOCRAT, because that is the way he votes. He needs to RETIRED with dignity.

  22. Arizona Ranger says

    Friends,
    Good ole JD has NOT lost this race-yet! The polls do show McLame ahead of JD but they have been known to be wrong a time or two.
    JD does need to get his campaign into high gear as we approach the goal line and I know that he can do it!
    There are a 1001 reasons to retire John McLame and I won’t go over them here-we all know what they are. What we can do is to call the JD headquarters and ask them what we can do to help JD. WE need to get the lead out and participate in his campaign. Donate some money and some time. If McLame wins-we lose!
    Now…get off your — and go to work for JD!!

  23. Maybe you should be concerned about your own dignity…knowing the names of our Senators before you render your unfounded opinion as fact and making such absurd claims is not the way.

    Who is Senator “Kyle”? “LOOSING IT”…?

    Senator Kyl may have been there and having seen Senator McCain in public several times in the last few months, he is not “losing” anything.

    Especially not this race.

  24. Polls are usually about 50% correct. Let’s hope the Tea Partiers live up to their standards and elect JD. I’m a Tea Partier and JD has my vote.

  25. whitneymuse says

    Yosemite Sam,
    Is still hanging in there. Been sending money to Hayworth’s campaign since I don’t have a vote anymore in Arizona….poop. what are my old friends in Arizona doing still supporting that RINO and Amnesty man (Kennedy-McCain)…Stranger things have happened, though..It’s August 24 we shall know for sure look what happended in Utah to someone far less crap than McCain. (like no Amnesty deals just to try and get elected and losing the election to Obama) because he wouldn’t say boo about Obma’s record.

  26. Uh, Molly speaking of two time losers…. What exactly do you call John McCain? And, while he was running against our current Prez he certainly was polite and PC. Too bad, he might have actually won if he had pulled the same mean spirited and vindictive attacts that he does so well again JD Hayworth (both in front of and behind the camera’s) Anyone who really knows McCain knows what type of person he really is and that is why we don’t want that type of person representing the state of Arizona. Which by the way I’m not sure that he has represented us for quite some time.

  27. And by the way it was really nice of “Jorge” an anchor from Telemundo who stated on the Bill O’Rielly show (7/30/10 during the first segment) that John McCain promised him during an interview that he would work on a path to citizship for the illigals. That was in 2008 so I’m thinking that is pretty recent time wise. I’m guessing that John McCain will say and do anything to be elected/re-elected and then it’s back to business as usual. Just my take…….

  28. If McCain pulls it out – I will be voting for JD in the General by write-in. Once again we will have no Conservative Republican on the ballot – just 2 Dems, just like the 2008 Presidential election.

  29. Although a lot can happen in a month, it appears that McLame is heading to six more years. I will make this prediction now… he will caucus with the Dems by the end. He’ll probably follow his buddy Leiberman’s lead and be an “Independent Democrat.”

  30. Alicia Gegner says

    Long ago there was another man who lost some elections, and then they made him president. Mr. Lincoln will long be remembered.

    Funny thing is, no matter who I talk to, they like JD over Johnny McC. Remember the fat lady. It ain’t over till she sings, and I don’t even hear the orchestra yet, do you?

  31. Hamilcarbarca says

    JD has the right stuff, always had it. He is a true patriot who will not compromise a la McCain when he shouldn’t. He has a knowledge of our history that few elected officials have. This is vital for good government. How can congress make intelligent decisions made only on opinions and ideology? That’s not the case with JD. He really knows what to do and why he does it. He’s definitely got my vote.

  32. Carl Hammer says

    Long ago there was another man who lost some elections, and then they made him president. Mr. Lincoln will long be remembered.

    Funny thing is, no matter who I talk to, they like JD over Johnny McC. Remember the fat lady. It ain’t over till she sings, and I don’t even hear the orchestra yet, do you?

  33. Rasmussen must be polling different people than I talk to. I don’t see a lot of support for McCain. They really don’t like his negative ads.

  34. Molly you speak of two losing elections. Need I remind you McCain has lost two election bids for the Presidency. America has now told McCain, “Thanks but not thanks,” twice AZ will soon do the same.

  35. A few posts back, Mole referred to the detestation towards McCain on the part of the party faithful.

    That emotion is indicative of one thing, John McCain does not, and never hss, represented the views of the average Republican.

    As a matter of fact, he and his merry band (Arlen Spector, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham and the recently installed Scott Brown, have gone out of their way to “stick it” to him!

    Now is the time to return the favor. And let the paid hacks like Ann get the message!

  36. OK, will someone please tell me when I am supposed to get the paycheck y’all keep referring to? Geez, having been a reader and comment on this site long before most of you….I am due some serious back pay!

    Sorry…but this life-long Republican, PC since the 1980’s and hard working self-employed small business owner….is not a paid hack.

    There are those who post and comment on this site who are…just not me. I actually believe in what I say because I choose to, not because I am paid to.

    Mr. Carlist…or whatever you post under today….even if I was it does not dismiss the truth of my words.

    McCain will win. JD will lose.

  37. The delusion that all the McCain support is from liberals and paid staffers is the same delusion that leads some to think JD can win this race.

    If JD were not a pork barrel spender, arrogant to his detriment and too quick to anger and political missteps, he may have had a chance.

    Like Ann, I’m not a paid staffer, and I understand 20+ percentage point leads – especially since voting already started. It’s over for Hayworth.

    The Hayworth supporters would do well to eat a little humble pie, stop lying and attacking fellow Republicans and start doing real work for real conservative candidates.

  38. The Hayworth supporters are doing real work for real conservative candidates. Lets see, that would be Hayworth, Andrew Thomas, Bill Montgomery, etc…. I would say that John McCain is not a “real conservative” based upon his vote for amnesty and Tarp alone. As far as political missteps does anyone remember the Keating Five and I’m still waiting for lettuce to be $50 a head (his speech in Yuma when he was trying to push through amnesty)? Regarding pork barrel spending, McCain knows “dang” well that any bill that is put through for a vote will have pork attached by others and if one wants the bill to pass they will vote yes. Therefore by this defination anyone that votes “yes” on a bill is a “pork barrel spender”. Can anyone say “John McCain”? These are just at the top of the barrel. As far as quick to anger, McCain has that down to a science not to mention being arrogant and vindictive (yes it has been seen and felt by many people). He plays dirty and then points the finger at anyone that brings up his record or gets in his way. McCain is disconnected from the American poeple and is now as much of an elitist as Obama is. By the way do you know why “the snakes in Guam” ad was removed? Because McCain voted for it too.

  39. PS: The 20% lead that Scott Browns opponent had two weeks before the election wasn’t helpful to them.

  40. The reason that McCain will not run on his own record (and has used smear campaigns with all kinds of media to the tune of about $15 million dollars) is because his record looks real bad for him. By the way has anyone seen the Pig Man sent by McCains people to Hayworth events? I thought the Dems were the “look over there” distractors. But I digress; lets look at McCains “conservative” voting record. Not only did McCain vote for Tarp, he wanted an additional 300 billion to buy up bad dept (guess who would have paid for that). McCain was part of the gang of 14 that prevented conservative judicial noninees from being appointed by the Bush Administration. He reached across the aisle (to the dems) to get rid of the conservative nominees. McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts calling them tax cuts for the wealthy (Hayworth helped write the Bush tax cuts). McCain co-wrote the McCain-Lieberman Cap and Trade Bill and recently sponsered the Dietary Supplement legislation allowing the Federal gov. control over the vitamins and supplements that millions of Americans take. Sounds like bigger governement to me. And please lets not forget McCain-Feingold legislation and support of the auto bail outs. Now someone please tell us again how John McCain is a real conservative!

  41. Living in the East Valley, we see about one JD supporter in 50. Our community is ultra conservative and we see right through JD Hayworth. JD relies on his mouth to get him votes, yet his history and votes are what we look at when deciding who to vote for. JD simply has nothing to offer us but a lot of words that have no strength or meaning behind them.

  42. Brad, no ultra conservative could actually support John McCain over JD Hayworth. In fact, no conservative of any kind could. McCain favors liberal policies like cap and trade for carbon dioxide, TARP bailouts with about $150 Billion in earmarks, was against the Bush income tax cuts, is weak on life issues compared to Hayworth, and is responsive to large contributors who want to regulate their competitors (as with vitamin supplements). In addition, he supports “regularizing” illegal aliens – essentially giving them amnesty.

    Even if JD Hayworth has nothing behind his words, as you assert (and I disagree with), it would be better to have nothing moving forward than liberal policies of increased government control.

    I don’t dispute that many of neighbors support John McCain. Many in my precinct also support McCain, but they are not ultra conservative. In fact, they are generally “pragmatic” Republicans who, along with Democrats, no longer respect constitutional limits on the federal government.

    The fact that McCain has outspent JD Hayworth by more than 10:1 – mostly on smearing Hayworth and lying about McCain’s positions on illegal aliens – may also have something to do with the polling results and may determine the outcome of the election. McCain has already spent more against JD Hayworth than Kyl spent against Pederson, a Democrat, in 2006. McCain is also using “leftover” money from his failed presidential campaign to finance his Senate primary campaign. This just reinforces the notion that McCain campaigns harder against Republicans than he does against Democrats.

  43. Jeff,

    You’re ridin’ high in April, shot down in May

    But I know I’m gonna change that tune

    When I’m back on top, back on top in June

    I said that’s life (that’s life), and as funny as it may seem

    Some people get their kicks stompin’ on a dream

    But I don’t let it, let it get me down

    ’cause this fine old world, it keeps spinnin’ around

    ESTIMATE on origins of McCain’s recent polling support:

    Democrats – 40 %
    Independents – 40 %
    Republicans – 20 %

    Estimate of Hayworth’s recent polling support:

    Democrats – 8 %

    Independents – 30 %

    Republicans – 62 %

    Brad – a “seminar conservative”?

  44. Wow. Looks fake in the picture. That ring at Tiffany would definitely be more than a regular car, more like a sports car. Also, I don’t recognize the style to be a Tiffany ring.

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