The CD3 Poll: Quayle leads, but watch out for Parker and Waring

The Arizona Guardian recently released a poll on CD3.  We’re guessing the winner of the August 24th primary gets 23% to 25% of the vote.  About 30% of voters are still undecided.

 

Top Tier

On the surface, yes, Quayle has the lead with 18%.  That is close to the winning number and he only needs a few more points to get over the top, but how much upside is there for Quayle?

He has spent around $1M, including 4 very nice mailers sent out right before the poll was conducted, another two mailers when he declared, and he has universal name ID because of his dad.  We have to think that just about every Republican primary voter has an opinion of him.  We are pegging his final vote total close to 20%.

Jim Waring gets second place in the poll (barely), at 13%.  Clearly his 8 years of door-knocking in LD7 has paid off, but after running TV commercials right before the poll, he has to be a little disappointed he does not poll higher.  It’s fair to say LD7 is solid for Waring, but does he have the money to grab another 10 points elsewhere?  If he’s got $300K or more going into the early ballots, he could be a contender.  If not, 13% to 17% may be the most he’ll get.  After a lackluster 1Q fundraising report, we have to wonder if Waring’s got it.

Vernon Parker comes in 3rd at 12%, but really is tied with Waring for second place.  His 12% is very impressive considering he has not spent any money on direct mail or TV.  Not too mention his base is tiny Paradise Valley, which has only a few percent of the vote and is divided up between Parker, Quayle and Steve Moak.  Once Parker ramps up the direct mail and TV to get his name out to the voting public, he’s got a lot of potential to rise in the polls (Parker had a very good 1Q fundraising so we expect a good 2Q).

Parker is the sleeper candidate.

The noise:

Being a complete unknown, Moak has a respectable 7%.  However, it has cost a lot of money to get there.  Is he willing to spend millions to climb up to the mid-20’s?

Gorman’s numbers are good and bad.  On the positive, having spent no money (and not even putting up signs until two weeks or so ago), she still gets 6% of the vote.  However, in our humble opinion, Gorman should have run away with this race.  Her voting record is great, she’s gorgeous and has a lot of energy.  Yet for some reason, she hasn’t been able to raise money.  There must be a reason…

Paulina Morris has spent plenty on signs and TV, but is only at 3%.  Like Moak, she’ll need drop seven figures to get that winning number.

Sam Crump is another person tailor made for the Congressional seat (he even looks like John Shadegg).  But at 3% and not much money in the bank, its time for him to start thinking about growing his law practice.

So who stays in the race? With a 1 month to go, probably all of them.  The real question is who is in it to win and spend what it takes.

Do Moak and Morris continue to drain their personal savings accounts?  If not, Moak’s voters may split between Quayle and Parker (Quayle reportedly asked Moak to drop out).  Morris supporters go to Gorman and Parker.  Parker could net 5 to 7 points, to Quayle’s 3.

The skinny:

The winner will take it with about one-quarter of the vote, beating the second place person by 1 to 3% points.

Quayle is in the lead, so you have to give the advantage to him.  But once Parker starts spending money (and especially if Moak and Morris unofficially call it quits), Parker could easily win.


Comments

  1. Mike Kelton says

    People put too much on emphasis on being a state legislator. It gives you an advantage, but not that much of one.

    Still, I would expect Waring to do better.

    Although, I am for anyone but Quayle…

  2. Bryan Harper says

    My vote is for Ben Quayle. His youth, energy and background in business makes him my choice for Congress. A lot can be said about the people he surrounds himself with and they are all top notch people.

  3. Vernon Parker has been looking extremely impressive in the events I have seen. He is personable, has a lot of solid ideas and a great personal narrative, and has been conducting a very effective campaign. I am glad that this poll confirms that it is time people start considering him seriously.

  4. I agree that 23% would be sufficient to win this election — but the idea that Quayle has spent a million dollars is farcical.

    Unlike Moak, Waring or Morris, Quayle has not run a single TV spot that I am aware of.
    The author of this article is feeding off of the Vernon Parker camp’s claim that Quayle has somehow managed to spend a million dollars on his campaign. We will all see how much each candidate has spent when the FEC report comes out later this month. I would bet that Vernon and his followers will be left with egg on their face at this preposterous claim.

    This race is between the two true conservatives: Gorman and Quayle.

  5. PC in LD6 says

    My kids have youth and energy and are only short about a year of the “business experience” Quayle has, so that’s just nonsense. He surrounds himself with who his dad puts there and unless Dan is planning on having a chair in the House next to Ben’s, he’s in trouble when it comes to thinking on his own.
    His donor list is an impressive who’s who of the bank bailout kings and dad’s connections.

    Morris needs to get out, no one wants a new moderate in there, Vernon is pretty moderate, too, but will stay in. Crump needs to exit as well.

    We can do much better… Gorman is getting plenty of attention lately and it’s starting to bother some of these “top tier” candidates – wonder why would they care? Hmmm

  6. Marcus Huey says

    It will be a very sad day in Arizona if Ben Quayle buys this Congressional seat. We elected a president with no experience and we are now all paying a very dear price for that mistake.

    Anyone taking the time to do a modest amount of research will clearly see that Pamela Gorman is the real conservative in this race. Of the 90 AZ legislators Pamela has the 3rd highest Goldwater Institute rating with a score of 75 – one point behind SB1070 author Russell Pearce. Pamela co-sponsored SB1070 and was fighting to secure the border long before it was “fashionable”. Please take the time to do your homework – Pamela is the real deal.

  7. This is a race between Quayle, Parker and Waring. It doesn’t matter if we like Gorman or Crump, because they are going nowhere. We have to chose between Quayle, Parker and Waring.

    But Waring is much stronger than Admiral Nelson says.

    I’d be happy with Waring or Parker. Quayle should serve in the state legislature and get some real experience.

  8. TrueAZConservative says

    Anyone that votes for Vernon Parker is a fool. He is NO conservative! His only claim to experience, besides being appointed as mayor of PV, is being a Washington bureaucrat. Further, Parker’s business tried to scam the Small Business Administration; is this really the candidate that represents conservatism?

    Gorman is the real conservative in this race. She is gaining traction and is by far the most principled, experienced candidate in the race.

  9. Adm. Nelson says

    Hello,

    Multiple posters have commented on Gorman “getting attention” and such. Can someone post a link to the article or poll. We are always interested in new information.

  10. rob manstantino says

    Your focus on money doesn’t mean much as 2Q numbers not even announced yet. You will be surprised when it is.

    And it’s hard for people to get excited over a race yet.

  11. geno mcdonel says

    Stop criticizing Lil’ Dan. It’s not his fault that:

    *Lil’ Dan is new to Arizona.

    *Lil’ Dan never had any elective office before.

    *Or Lil’ Dan has not voted much in AZ.

    *Lil’ Dan Does not know his dad Big Dan is raising money for him.

    *Lil’ Dan thinks it’s up to “his generation” to be beholden to lobbyists and special interest that contribute big $ that will determine his votes.

    *Lil’ Dan wonders why the camel came back to Camelback Mountain saying “Where did it come back from?

  12. TrueAZConservative says

    1) Gorman’s recent YouTube video, out around 10 days or so, has over 200,000 hits.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqnjzONrPiA&feature=player_embedded

    2) CNN spot:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/07/05/campaign-ads-gone-wild/?fbid=z_NDYBMkVTw

    3) Keith Olbermann:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXj-4w4Reiw

    4) Endorsements from conservative groups like Redstate, Glendale Tea Party, Liberty First PAC, The Patriot Caucus.

    http://www.redstate.com/positiveenerg/2010/07/02/tea-party-patriots-of-glendale-endorse-pamela-gorman/

    http://www.libertyfirstpac.com/endorsements.html

    http://www.redstate.com/positiveenerg/2010/06/22/why-pamela-gorman-is-the-conservative-in-az-03/

    Conservative groups are rallying around Pamela Gorman, because they do their homework and understand that she is the true conservative in this race. Furthermore, if Olbermann mocks her, you know you are doing something right.

    Gorman is gaining steam, even in this crowded primary. She is getting recognition right when it matters, when regular folks are really starting to care and research the crowded field. And if republican and conservative voters do the research, and don’t just vote for Quayle because they have heard of his dad, then they will see that she is the real conservative in the race.

  13. TrueAZConservative says

    1) Gorman’s recent YouTube video, out around 10 days or so, has over 200,000 hits.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqnjzONrPiA&feature=player_embedded

    2) CNN spot:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/07/05/campaign-ads-gone-wild/?fbid=z_NDYBMkVTw

    3) Keith Olbermann:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXj-4w4Reiw

    4) Endorsements from conservative groups like Redstate, Glendale Tea Party, Liberty First PAC, The Patriot Caucus.

    http://www.redstate.com/positiveenerg/2010/07/02/tea-party-patriots-of-glendale-endorse-pamela-gorman/

    http://www.libertyfirstpac.com/endorsements.html

    http://www.redstate.com/positiveenerg/2010/06/22/why-pamela-gorman-is-the-conservative-in-az-03/

    Conservative groups are rallying around Pamela Gorman, because they do their homework and understand that she is the true conservative in this race. Furthermore, if Olbermann mocks her, you know you are doing something right.

    Gorman is gaining steam, even in this crowded primary. She is getting recognition right when it matters, when regular folks are really starting to care and research the crowded field. And if republican and conservative voters do the research, and don’t just vote for Quayle because they have heard of his dad, then they will see that she is the real conservative in the race.

  14. Adm. Nelson,
    Pamela Gorman’s website is http://www.gorman2010.com. As reported by the Sonoran News on Feb. 10, Pamela is supported by Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform in Washington, D.C. Pamela is one of only two Arizona candidates being endorsed by Change the Congress in 2010 (ChangetheCongressin2010.com). She has an “A” rating from the NRA. Pamela was recently a guest speaker at the International Conference on Climate Change held in Chicago – this was the 3rd time that Pamela has been asked to speak at this event. Pamela has a very exciting and much needed energy policy. She is endorsed by the Arizona Patriot Caucus and the Glendale TEA Party. Gorman is endorsed by Redstate.com. Gorman was the Senate Majority Whip in 2010 and is supported by Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Gray. Prior to her service in the AZ senate, Pamela served four years in the House. She has fought tax increases, fought against increasing the size of government and, long before it was the “in” thing, she was fighting to secure OUR border.
    I have conversations with many people on a daily basis and I have yet to speak with a single person voting for Ben Quayle. Do we really know the validity of this poll? Who is behind this poll, how was it taken, how large was the sample? My gut feeling is that this “poll” isn’t worth the cyberspace it is written on – with all due respect.

  15. PC in LD6 says

    This is a Dem poll, so of course they want the moderates )like Parker) to look like they are in the lead, which they may be right now.
    But to give up like gopgal and say we have to choose between the top 3 even though we may not like them is exactly what’s wrong with those trying to buy an election, it’s so sad.
    In the last week, Gorman has been featured on CNN, MSNBC and tons of other news outlets, blogs, and interviews nationwide. She’s gaining new endorsements, and people all over the country are starting to pay attention.
    We still have a while to go before the election and voters are starting to wake up and realize that we don’t have to be stuck with a Quayle who thinks it might be fun to be in Congress or a Parker who thinks he deserves unlimited amounts of money from the government and he deserves the job because of a hard life.
    Let’s get serious and volunteer for and elect someone with the experience and record of true conservative.

  16. BearDown says

    There are a lot of great candidates in CD3 but Vernon Parker impresses me the most. He’s very charming and has amazing ideas. Electing Vernon would be a huge step for the Republican Party.

  17. I find it really interesting that people who call themselves “conservatives” are out there acting like liberals – name calling and slinging mud at Parker. There is not one perfect candidate out there. That said – some candidates have given strait answers to difficult questions – and some have dodged them. I have had the opportunity to hear all but Morris speak and have been able to speak directly with most of the candidates – including Parker, Warring, Quayle, and Crump. Parker gave me the most direct answers. After speaking with him, doing a bunch of digging on his background (including the mud that folks are slinging – with is not at all what is being represented) I have to say that he is the guy we need to support.

    Here is the challenge to those reading this… You obviously have read the article here and perhaps other stuff. If you are going to make a decision based on those articles, and the folks out there that have chosen to attack Parker with name-calling, slurs, and candidly inaccurate representations of his positions and history, then you have succumbed to the system. I am not telling you who to vote for. I am suggesting that you should dig beyond the blog posts. Call his campaign, find a town hall meeting with him, heck – call him – I bet he takes your call – he took mine – and called me back. Assuming that your experience is anything like mine I suspect that you will find honest and non-evasive answers to your questions (a refreshing quality for a politician living in the slime that is now our political process), solutions to difficult problems, and a strong conservative set of principles worthy of your support.

  18. obamanation says

    Parker no matter what you think is conservative. I’d laugh if anyone called Morris that. Frankly, in my opinion Bob Branch is the most conservative of these CD3 candidates but he’s not even on the chart, so I guess he’s not exactly burning the bushes as far as ratings go.

  19. It seriously is a tragedy that voters continue to allow outside groups & conservative media to tell them who to vote for. (Think Tea Party Express & Club for Growth’s involvement in the NV Primary) – Conservatives are anti “Special Interests” – unless its a “conservative” special interest or independent expenditure. The outpouring of money in races across the nation from these groups should shock conservative voters. Don’t allow this to happen in AZ. They are just as guilty of buying votes as ACORN.
    I think another thing we all need to remember is that we dont need to continue being the party of “No” all the time. Everyone wants to invoke Ronald Reagan’s name & memory everytime they open their mouth on a stump speech. Lets remember that Reagan was capable of reaching across the aisle and working w/democrats. But by all means, send a “conservative” who wont get anything done in Congress (like Sharron Angle in NV) and see how long they hold their seat, if they can get thru the general election at all.
    Its time for Americans to wake up, stop allowing Rush Limbaugh to make up your minds for you & see who has the experience and the drive to get stuff done.

  20. Ben Quayle was scheduled to speak at the Camelback Young Republicans meeting tonight, but didn’t show up. This is the third time he’s done that. I’ve heard that he’s cancelled on other groups too. What’s up with that? Has anyone else had a problem with him not showing up to their meetings/events?

  21. Ben Quayle can definitely think for himself and has the smarts to handle himself well in Washington. Having seen all the bad stuff and game playing that is done in politics, he is prepared to deal with it and not be swayed.
    He is a refreshing change from what we have been offered before in Arizona. Others in the race are jaded by their passed political offices or more impressed with themselves than what they can do for the people of their district. Not so for Quayle. He has my vote because of his honesty and integrity.

  22. Quayle shot himself in the foot with the “knock the hell out of” Washington video. That was troubling. And how much money has he (or dad) raised in CD3?

    The real deals are Gorman, Parker, and Waring. Forget all the others.

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