POLL: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

 

OH Predictive

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll conducted via IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the GOP Special Election in this survey with a +/-4.89% MOE.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

Here is how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since our last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so OHPI ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.
Here is the State of the Race in AZ-08 summarized in 40 Seconds

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

Poll: Who would you prefer to succeed Trent Franks?

LD-13 Legislators Endorse Aaron Borders for Maricopa GOP 2nd Vice Chair

(Phoenix) – Today, Aaron Borders announced the endorsements of Arizona House Majority Leader-elect Steve Montenegro, Representative Darin Mitchell and Senator Don Shooter. Montenegro, Mitchell and Shooter represent Legislative District 13 in the west valley

Montenegro said: “It is with great confidence that I endorse Aaron Borders for Second Vice Chair of the Maricopa County Republican Committee. Aaron is a committed conservative, who works extremely hard to advance the principles we so strongly believe. Aaron will work well with the MCRC, the legislative districts in Maricopa County, and with the Arizona Republican Party to ensure future Republican victories in 2016 and beyond. Please join me in supporting Aaron Borders for Second Vice Chair of the MCRC.”

Mitchell said: “I can think of no other person more qualified for the job of Second Vice Chair of the MCRC than Aaron Borders. When he ran for the state house in a Democratic stronghold this past cycle, Aaron proved to Republicans in Maricopa County that he would out-work anyone around him and that he would not compromise the platform of the Republican Party in order to gain a few extra votes. Being the 2nd Vice Chair of the MCRC is a thankless job and requires an individual who is committed to putting his head down and accomplishing the tasks ahead of him. Aaron Borders will do the work that is necessary for Republican victories in Maricopa County, and I hope that precinct committeemen will join me in supporting him for 2nd vice chair.”

Shooter said: “Aaron Borders is a young, up-and-coming talent in the Arizona Republican Party, and a true conservative at that. Most people would be burned out after losing a close race, but not Aaron; he is ready again to answer the call to serve his party. We need Aaron Borders as the MCRC’s next 2nd Vice Chair”

“I am so encouraged by the trust that these three worthy leaders of Arizona have placed in me,” stated Borders. “LD 13 is so fortunate to have some of the premier conservatives in Arizona, and their leadership going forward will do great things for future generations. I look forward to working with these men – and LD 13 – should I be privileged to serve as the 2nd Vice Chair of the MCRC.”
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Aaron Borders is married to Shelly Borders, a fourth-generation Arizonan. They have four young children. Aaron is a business owner, a board member of the West Valley Youth Sports Commission, and a licensed financial specialist. In his limited free time, Aaron enjoys serving at his church, spending time with his family and coaching his sons in football. Aaron has been endorsed by Arizona House Majority Leader-elect Steve Montenegro, Representative Darin Mitchell, and Senator Don Shooter.

NFIB/Arizona Endorses 43 Legislative Candidates for the General Election

Photographed holding one of NFIB’s signature “Small Business’ Choice” campaign sign-toppers, NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council Chairman Mark Giebelhaus congratulates former lawmaker Sylvia Tenney Allen after she was selected as replacement state senate nominee by Legislative District 6 Republicans at their August 30th special meeting in Flagstaff. The extraordinary selection became necessary when incumbent Sen. Chester Crandell died in an early-August horse-riding accident after primary ballots had already been sent to voters. Mr. Giebelhaus was on hand at the GOP meeting to inform Mrs. Allen that she would receive NFIB/Arizona SAFE Trust’s endorsement. Mrs. Allen served in the Arizona Senate from 2008 to 2013 rising to the position of Senate President Pro Tempore in 2011. While in office, she achieved a perfect 100-percent score on NFIB/Arizona’s Voting Records during her four-and-a-half years in the legislature.

Photographed holding one of NFIB’s signature “Small Business’ Choice” campaign sign-toppers, NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council Chairman Mark Giebelhaus congratulates former lawmaker Sylvia Tenney Allen after she was selected as replacement state senate nominee by Legislative District 6 Republicans at their August 30th special meeting in Flagstaff. The extraordinary selection became necessary when incumbent Sen. Chester Crandell died in an early-August horse-riding accident after primary ballots had already been sent to voters. Mr. Giebelhaus was on hand at the GOP meeting to inform Mrs. Allen that she would receive NFIB/Arizona SAFE Trust’s endorsement. Mrs. Allen served in the Arizona Senate from 2008 to 2013 rising to the position of Senate President Pro Tempore in 2011. While in office, she achieved a perfect 100-percent score on NFIB/Arizona’s Voting Records during her four-and-a-half years in the legislature.

The political action committee of Arizona’s leading small-business association today announced its General Election endorsements of 43 candidates for the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives.

“The legislative candidates endorsed by NFIB today are proven friends of free enterprise whom Arizona small-business owners can trust to place their responsibility to taxpayers first over the interests of bigger government and its enablers,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

These endorsements are formally issued by the NFIB/Arizona Save America’s Free Enterprise (SAFE) Trust, the organization’s political action committee, and represent the culmination of the legislative candidate endorsement process for the small business advocacy group.

In July, NFIB endorsed 42 candidates in the primary phase with all but two advancing to the General Election—Rep. Carl Seel lost his primary and Sen. Chester Crandell passed away in August. The three new NFIB endorsements for the General Election are former state senator Sylvia Tenney Allen who was selected by her party to replace Sen. Crandell in the Legislative District 6 Senate contest and House candidates Noel Campbell in Legislative District 1 and Anthony Kern in Legislative District 20. NFIB is expected to announce soon small business’ choice for governor and attorney general.

NFIB/Arizona Legislative Endorsements in the 2014 General Election:

  • LD05 Senate: Kelli Ward
  • LD06 Senate: Sylvia Tenney Allen
  • LD10 Senate: Mark Morrison
  • LD11 Senate: Steve Smith
  • LD12 Senate: Andy Biggs
  • LD13 Senate: Don Shooter
  • LD14 Senate: Gail Griffin
  • LD15 Senate: Nancy Barto
  • LD16 Senate: David Farnsworth
  • LD17 Senate: Steve Yarbrough
  • LD20 Senate: Kimberly Yee
  • LD21 Senate: Debbie Lesko
  • LD22 Senate: Judy Burges
  • LD23 Senate: John Kavanagh
  • LD01 House: Noel Campbell
  • LD01 House: Karen Fann
  • LD05 House: Sonny Borrelli
  • LD06 House: Brenda Barton
  • LD06 House: Bob Thorpe
  • LD10 House: Todd Clodfelter
  • LD10 House: William Wildish
  • LD11 House: Mark Finchem
  • LD11 House: Vince Leach
  • LD12 House: Eddie Farnsworth
  • LD12 House: Warren Petersen
  • LD13 House: Darin Mitchell
  • LD13 House: Steve Montenegro
  • LD14 House: David Gowan
  • LD14 House: David Stevens
  • LD15 House: John Allen
  • LD16 House: Kelly Townsend
  • LD17 House: J.D. Mesnard
  • LD17 House: Jeff Weninger
  • LD18 House: Jill Norgaard
  • LD20 House: Paul Boyer
  • LD20 House: Anthony Kern
  • LD21 House: Rick Gray
  • LD22 House: David Livingston
  • LD22 House: Phil Lovas
  • LD23 House: Michelle Ugenti
  • LD25 House: Rusty Bowers
  • LD25 House: Justin Olson
  • LD28 House: Shawnna Bolick

For more than 70 years, the National Federation of Independent Business has been the Voice of Small Business, taking the message from Main Street to the halls of Congress and all 50 state legislatures. NFIB annually surveys its members on state and federal issues vital to their survival as America’s economic engine and biggest creator of jobs. NFIB’s educational mission is to remind policymakers that small businesses are not smaller versions of bigger businesses; they have very different challenges and priorities.

NFIB Endorses 42 Legislative Candidates

Nine Newcomers Join 33 Incumbents as Small Business’ Choice

The political action committee of Arizona’s leading small-business association today announced its endorsements of 42 candidates for the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives.

NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council Chair Mark Giebelhaus and NFIB/Arizona State Director Farrell Quinlan flank LD18 House hopeful Jill Norgaard at the small business group’s Small Business Forum this week.

NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council Chair Mark Giebelhaus and NFIB/Arizona State Director Farrell Quinlan flank LD18 House hopeful Jill Norgaard at the small business group’s Small Business Forum this week.

“The legislative candidates endorsed by NFIB today are proven friends of free enterprise whom Arizona small-business owners can trust to place their responsibility to taxpayers first over the interests of bigger government and its enablers,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council member Jeff Fleetham and LD28 House hopeful Shawnna Shawnna Bolick at the small business group’s Small Business Forum this week.

NFIB/Arizona Leadership Council member Jeff Fleetham and LD28 House hopeful Shawnna Shawnna Bolick at the small business group’s Small Business Forum this week.

The principal standard used to evaluate incumbents was their voting records on 12 bills supported or opposed by the National Federation of Independent Business during the 2013-2014 legislative sessions. Endorsements for non-incumbent candidates were largely based on the quality of their answers on a questionnaire. These endorsements are formally issued by the NFIB/Arizona Save America’s Free Enterprise (SAFE) Trust, the organization’s political action committee, and represent the culmination of the pre-primary phase of the candidate evaluation process. There may be further endorsements in select legislative and statewide races after the August 26th primary elections.

NFIB/Arizona Endorsements in 2014 Legislative Primary Contests

For more than 70 years, the National Federation of Independent Business has been the Voice of Small Business, taking the message from Main Street to the halls of Congress and all 50 state legislatures. NFIB annually surveys its members on state and federal issues vital to their survival as America’s economic engine and biggest creator of jobs. NFIB’s educational mission is to remind policymakers that small businesses are not smaller versions of bigger businesses; they have very different challenges and priorities.

Wil Cardon Statement on Steve Montenegro Decision and Endorsement

Wil Cardon SOS

Mesa, AZ – Businessman and Republican candidate for Secretary of State Wil Cardon released the following statement today in response to Representative Steve Montenegro’s decision not to run for Secretary of State and his endorsement of Cardon:

“I want to thank Steve for his endorsement today. Steve’s a great conservative and someone who has an incredibly bright future in Arizona. I am excited to have his endorsement and look forward to having him involved in our campaign.

“I also want to extend an invite to all of Steve’s supporters to join our campaign. Your support is important to me and to the success of this campaign.”

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A Reason for Conservatives to Cheer?

According to the Arizona Capitol Times’ Yellow Sheet, a group of nearly 20 conservative leaders from across Arizona have written a letter to State Representative Steve Montenegro urging him to explore a campaign for Secretary of State.  While liberal State Senator Michele Reagan has long coveted the job, there has not been a conservative candidate mentioned, related to the SOS race, that has elicited any real excitement among the grassroots of the AZGOP.  If Montenegro were to run, that would all change very quickly.  Montenegro is in his third term and has been a real fighter for conservative issues.  His scores from taxpayer groups, pro-family groups, libertarian-leaning groups like the Goldwater Institute, and conservative groups are always among the very best, and he has been a leader on issues like border security, fiscal restraint, the defense of human life, our 2nd Amendment rights, and more.  With so much of the national Republican Party looking for credible Hispanic candidates, a candidate like Montenegro might not only be attractive to Arizona conservatives, but Republican party stalwarts across the country.  We will try to get a list of the signers and will update this post as soon as we get them.  In the meantime, check out this clip of a younger Steve Montenegro (starts at 1:40) speaking at the first Arizona Tea Party back in 2009, and consider that this is him as a rookie, after just a few months in office!

State Representative Steve Montenegro Endorses Robert Graham for Arizona Republican Party Chairman

Robert Graham
“Robert Graham exemplifies the kind of character and leadership that our party needs.”
PHOENIX — Today, Arizona State Representative Steve Montenegro endorsed Robert Graham for chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. Montenegro represents Legislative District 13 and is the recipient of numerous awards including, “Friend of the Family,” “Friend of the Taxpayer and “Conservative Hero” from the Arizona Liberty Project.

Montenegro believes the state GOP will benefit from new leadership with an emphasis on grassroots outreach. “Robert understands the importance of grassroots efforts in keeping our party strong,” Montenegro said. “His plans for cultivating party members, coupled with his strong leadership skills will go a long way in revamping our party’s efforts. Robert Graham exemplifies the kind of character and leadership that our party needs.”

Acknowledging the importance of thoughtfully engaging Arizona’s Hispanic community, Montenegro noted Graham’s vision for ushering in a new era where the state party actively works to describe how Hispanics naturally fit within the Republican Party. “Robert understands that we must effectively communicate our goals and priorities to the Hispanic community. I believe that Robert will help us better convey how our party strongly represents the fiscal, family, and social values of Hispanic-Americans,” Montenegro said.

“I am grateful to have Representative Montenegro’s support as we share a similar vision for Arizona’s Republican Party,” Graham said. “I look forward to working with our Hispanic counterparts as we pave the way for a better, more promising future.”

To learn more about Robert Graham and his plan for Arizona’s Republican Party, please visit his website at www.GrahamForArizona.com or his Facebook page. 

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AZ State Representative Steve Montenegro Announces Endorsement for Wil Cardon

Phoenix, Arizona – Today, Arizona State Representative Steve Montenegro endorsed Wil Cardon’s bid for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Montenegro currently represents District 12 (soon to be District 13) which includes Goodyear, Avondale, Litchfield Park and Luke Air Force Base. He also works with Congressman Trent Franks and serves as Associate Pastor at Surprise Apostolic Assembly. As an Arizona lawmaker, Steve is focused on job creation, fiscal responsibility and government transparency.

In endorsing Wil, Representative Montenegro said, “A weakened economy is threatening the future of this country. We must get it back on track and get Americans back to work. Wil Cardon can do that. His business acumen is exactly what we need in the US Senate right now. What’s more, we can trust Wil to do what he says he will do and act in an ethical and responsible way.”

Humbled by the endorsement Wil said, “Steve has dedicated his life to caring for his community. I admire his tireless work as an Arizona legislator and Associate Pastor. And I have deep respect that he, and his family, epitomize the American Dream – immigrants from El Salvador who came to this country legally and are living in service to this country. I’m honored to receive his continued support.”

About Wil Cardon:

Wil is a business owner, a fifth-generation Arizonan, a father of five and a true conservative who is willing to step away from his successful business ventures to serve the people of Arizona. He grew up in a family business where as a young man he worked on the construction crew and made change at the family’s gas stations. He went to both Brigham Young and Stanford for his undergraduate degree and earned an MBA from Harvard. He came back to Arizona to be a part of the family business where he has created hundreds of jobs and a debt free business that has thrived by investing in our community.

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ALRA Releases Its Primary Candidate Endorsements

MESA, ARIZONA (July 11, 2012) – In light of the unprecedented importance placed on the 2012 electoral cycle, the Executive Board of the Arizona Latino Republican Association (ALRA) decided to break with its former practice and officially vet and endorse some primary candidates.

After a review of the candidacies and political platforms of the Republicans in various key races, the ALRA Executive Board has taken formal votes to decide which candidates are most in line with our conservative platforms and values. The result of those votes is as follows:

  • Maricopa County Sheriff – Joe Arpaio
  • Congressional District 3 – Gabriela Saucedo Mercer
  • Congressional District 5 – Matt Salmon
  • Legislative District 8 Representative – T J Shope
  • Legislative District 13 Representative – Steve Montenegro
  • Legislative District 21 Representative – Rick Gray
  • Legislative District 21 Representative – Debbie Lesko
  • Legislative District 25 Senator – Russell Pearce
  • Gilbert Justice of the Peace – James Estrada

Congratulations to all on receiving ALRA’s endorsement of their respective campaigns. We look forward to working with all of them to strengthen the conservative representation that is vital to the future dignity, security and prosperity of the people of Arizona.

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