My Final Rebuttal – Guest Opinion

By L. Burke Files

To Sylvia Allen, Gary Morris, Peter Aleshire, and the AZ Republican Party;

In my opinion, the three of you and the party are a great disappointment.   No, you will listen, you immediately decry this “attack” as a Rogers person, and you would be correct. I am a 20-year friend of Wendy and Hal. I get it. I, however, am sharing my view and background in advance. It is a technique in argumentation called authenticity, something you have forgotten.

Senator Sylvia Allen, you were once the fresh face of the rural independent spirit.  Your gaffs about ethnicity and sexual orientation are hurtful, but expected.  You have not traveled, and you have not seen how the citizens of the world view American. America is Eldorado. We are the famed city of gold on the hill. They want to be here; they want to become Americans. My grandfather was an immigrant, and he well remembered his reception in Chicago when he went looking for work. Little signs in the window said NINA. It meant No Irish Need Apply. He was at first angry, but soon realized the country was so rich the NINA businesses did not need his money.  Your time has passed, you have forgotten the golden rule  “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”  Republicans are the party of Lincoln, not Wilson. To me you now more or less resemble Norma Desmond looking for your last close-up. You could have gone out on top. Now you will just go.

Gary Morris, Gila County Republican Precinct Chair, you are the epitome of what the party has become. The AZ Republican Party has become a sclerotic assemblage of the status quo.  In this tyranny, there is enormous inertia, so much so only a crisis real or imagined will produce real change.  If you can open your eyes, you will see the crises, it will be in November, and you and others like you are the authors of the tragedy. Your role was to advocate for who the party members chose, Gary – it’s not your choice. It is the choice of the voters. Your tireless advocacy for Allen has removed you from the party Chair to become the foppish incumbent cheerleader. 

Peter Aleshire, you disgust me.  I am a huge proponent of the First Amendment and especially investigative journalism. The third estate is what keeps democracy between the lines. My advocacy for the First Amendment is not virtue signaling, I have, as a financial investigator, supported the work of the ICIJ and OCCRP in their worldwide efforts to combat fraud and corruption.  Don’t buy it? Try searching my name. I have little hope you’ll get that right, as you certainly were unable to Google or check the facts in the campaign. Your posting of manufactured articles only to take them down and allow them to be used by Sylvia Allen and Gary Morris is a fraud upon journalism.  You could have sponsored a debate between the two candidates, but no. You have betrayed the truth, you have betrayed the hope of finding the truth, and your actions are the ultimate betrayal of those whom you serve, your readers. 

As for the Arizona Republican Party, you are tone-deaf, economic, and legislative morons. When I see a debate and the talking lines are who are more loyal to the party, it echoes a bad movie scene where the prisoner clerks in a gulag are debating who is more loyal so they can get an extra ration of gruel.

After this election cycle, this Republican of 40 years will drop his registration to become an independent.

This is my opinion, so be it.

L. Burke Files
Financial Examinations & Evaluations, Inc.

Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris Should Be Fired

Guest Opinion by RC Montana

It was such sloppy “journalism” if you can even call it journalism. The Payson Roundup briefly posted a story on July 22, 2020 titled “Republicans Launch a Rare Attack on a Candidate [Wendy Rogers] in their Own Primary“. The thing is though, the Payson Roundup took the article down after 12 hours because they likely suffered blowback, much as they did in June 2020 when they had to take down another flimsy article about Rogers due to several of the people, who the paper had claimed supposedly endorsed Rogers, said they had not.

The Roundup didn’t print that June story, because Rogers’ campaign never claimed those endorsements in 2020. Imagine that.

But this time, their second try at baseless flimsy “journalism” was predicated on Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris’s unsubstantiated claims about Rogers, which were mass-emailed – completely un-fact-checked – to all Gila county precinct committeemen. How’s that for staying publicly neutral in a primary? 

Then the Payson Roundup reporter breathlessly gobbled up Gary Morris’s rant even though uncorroborated. Chairman Morris’s mass email was a smear job packed with unsupported statements very much like the Steele Dossier on Trump.

The Payson Roundup’s Peter Aleshire was given a chance not to publish it, but he did. How did Peter Aleshire even justify it, since he’d had to take his previous, similarly inaccurate article down a month earlier? 

PETER ALESHIRE’S ARTICLE HAS NONETHELESS BEEN ARCHIVED AND IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST!   

So now you’re caught up to date. Here is my take on the lackey, Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris, who violated every rule of civility and decorum as a county chairman. He caved to the establishment GOP. He is a reprobate for peddling lies he should’ve fact-checked first. He was warned, yet mass-emailed out misinformation anyway, violating sacred tenets of basic leadership. The Gila County Republican Committee should fire him. 

Mr. Morris wonders who Wendy Rogers will be “beholden to?” Is he kidding? Wendy Rogers has not taken one penny from a PAC or a lobbyist. On the other hand, Rogers’s opponent Sylvia Allen is almost entirely funded by special interests.

Gary Morris continues to perpetuate the lie about Rogers’ residency even though the AZ Secretary of State wrote unequivocally that Rogers is from Flagstaff. To whom are you beholden Chairman Morris? 

How can this chairman, in his right mind, suggest that Rogers would be “weak” going into the general election campaign? She has fundraised more than any other state candidate in Arizona.

Gary Morris and the GOP establishment are scared to death of Rogers because they can’t control her. They know she won’t permit a Red-Flag bill or that idiotic National Popular Vote to get past her.

Here’s what they really can’t stand: Wendy has outworked and out-campaigned a rusty fixture in the state legislature – Sylvia Allen – who has been there far too long, and thus has completely sold out and caved to special interests.

Gary Morris’s time could be better spent by learning how NOT to get lost in the woods. Fire him!

Robert Graham Seriously Entertaining US Senate Run

Former State Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party continues to fuel speculation that he will run for the US Senate in 2018.

In an interview with Scott Simon of NPR’s Weekend Edition, Graham told listeners, “it’s definitely not in the immediate plans…”

Robert Graham

Robert Graham

Graham then went on to criticize Senator Jeff Flake over his “stiff opposition” during the presidential campaign and now Flake being “openly against a lot of his [Donald Trump] agenda items.”

Robert Graham did stop short of acknowledging he will challenge Jeff Flake in the 2018 Republican Primary.

What gives this interview and potential Graham candidacy credibility is that it took place on a national radio show.

Timing is everything of course.

The recent announcement by Senator John McCain that he has a serious and aggressive form of brain cancer has already begun to create tremors across Arizona’s political landscape in anticipation of major seismic activity. An early retirement by Senator John McCain could lead to the appointment of his Republican replacement by Governor Doug Ducey. And that appointment could go off with a major shift in Arizona’s political tectonic plates.

Jeff Flake

Or not.

Governor Ducey could resign and cut a deal with his replacement Michele Reagan to have her appoint him to the position – an unlikely move.

Ducey could also appoint a sitting Republican congressman like David Schweikert (in a safe Republican district) or Martha McSally who may be defeated in 2018 (given the liberal demographics and volatility of CD-2). Either type of an appointment would result in a torrent of state senators, representatives or city officials released to fill that vacancy.

Perhaps the least tumultuous move could be the appointment of someone like Robert Graham.

Graham, who would have to run for the seat in 2018 alongside the other senate primary, would have the advantage of incumbency, an arsenal of Republican donors at his disposal and perhaps most importantly, the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

John McCain

John McCain (Photo: Jacquelyn Martin, AP)

A Graham appointment also avoids a nasty Republican primary between Graham and Flake who have been political allies. Graham understands the formidability of the Flake machine and avoids that altogether in a parallel campaign.

That takes us back to the interview on NPR. Graham was very careful not to time stamp his answers. No one knows what Senator John McCain will do. Medical treatment takes time and the outcomes may give the senior senator more time to serve.

One thing is certain; Arizona political insiders are in uncharted waters in this political scenario because it has never happened with a US Senate seat here in Arizona.

Finally and most importantly, I want to offer my prayers to Senator John McCain and his family as he takes on another very tough battle. I wish him strength, courage and peace in the months and years ahead.

Non sibi sed patriae, Senator McCain.

Frank Schmuck Questions Jeff Dial’s Military Record in Political Ad

Conservative Republican Frank Schmuck released a new digital ad today questioning the military service of Jeff Dial. Dial is seeking reelection to the Arizona State Senate in Legislative District 18.

The ad references Dial’s admission that his military service was characterized as “unsatisfactory participation” due to his weight, but the Schmuck campaign cites military regulations for an accurate definition.

According to regulations, “unsatisfactory participation” is due to “disobeying military orders” or not showing up for duty or “Absence Without Leave” or AWOL.

Earlier this week, the Schmuck campaign asked Jeff Dial to release his DD-214, the official document issued by the Department of Defense certifying release of discharge of active military service.

Dial has refused to release his DD-214 and instead has only provided a DD 256, which only certifies completion of a term as a reservist. The DD Form 256 is not used to determine if someone is a veteran in part because it can be purchased online with no verification of military service required and because active dates of service must be listed to qualify.

Dial and Schmuck will square off in the August 30th Primary Election.

Links:

http://www.military-certificates.com/Cert_Army_Honorable_discharge.htm

http://www.cem.va.gov/hmm/discharge_documents.asp

Christine Jones Files Nomination Signatures for CD-5

Christine Jones for Congress

Christine Jones Files Nomination Signatures For Arizona CD-5

(Gilbert, AZ) – Conservative business leader Christine Jones filed nomination petitions with the Office of Arizona Secretary of State today qualifying her for the August 30 ballot. Jones filed a total of 2,748 signatures – nearly 1.7 times more than the minimum required of 1,639.

Signatures were collected district-wide over a 27-day period reflecting enthusiastic support for new conservative leadership and representation in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District. Christine Jones is the only non-politician running against a field of career politicians who have a combined total of 36 years in politics.

Upon filing petitions, Jones said, “I am truly grateful for the widespread support I’ve received thus far in the campaign.” She continued, “Citizens across the district have told me they want an end to career politicians and crony arrangements. They’re tired of business-as-usual politics and want fresh bold leadership to overturn the status quo.” She concluded, “I’ve played a key role in one of Arizona’s great success stories: creating thousands of jobs, balancing budgets and rooting out waste. I’ll take that experience and leadership success to Washington.”

Christine Jones for Congress

 

Pro-Life Voter Warning on “Republican” Primary Candidates

Prior to an election I always like to vet candidates on a number of issues including life, liberty and other rights enshrined in our Constitution. The sanctity of life – protecting innocent human life – has always been the top issue for me because if a candidate or elected officials waffles on life, it reveals where they stand on all other rights.

Part of my vetting process looks at whether or not the candidate filled out certain surveys, their answers, public statements, their involvement on the issues and even who is pushing for their election. I also look at who is donating to their campaign and what people and organizations who are opposed to my values are saying about the candidates.

Because of my involvement in the Pro-Life movement for many years, naturally I look at who Planned Parenthood or other high profile pro-abortion organizations and individuals have said about certain candidates. By looking at the donations of “true believers” in a cause, one should get a sense of the value system of the recipient. It would be akin to looking at the donations of Wayne LaPierre. You wouldn’t expect him to donate to an anti-2nd Amendment candidate.

One particular organization and its people I’ve looked at is the Arizona WISH list. WISH stands for Women In the Senate and House. Their fundamental goal has always been to elect “pro-choice” Republican women as the GOP version of EMILY’s list (the Democrats pro-abortion women’s group).

On their national board of directors sat an Arizonan named Deborah Carstens. Although it doesn’t appear that AZ WISH is active or that she currently serves on the national board of directors, Carstens continues to remain active in elections through her donations primarily to candidates who have declared themselves to be “pro-choice” or refuse to state their position on the sanctity of life. These have typically been Republican candidates who define themselves as more moderate but tend to vote liberal on social issues.

Because I have my suspicions on a handful of candidates, I decided to check out a few resources to clarify their positions and to see if Carstens had donated to their campaigns.

Here’s what I found:

Scott Smith was the only gubernatorial candidate to receive a donation from Carstens in the amount of $500. Scott Smith also took the most liberal position on abortion of all the GOP candidates (survey)

Michele Reagan has received a total of $1,250 from Carstens as the only Republican candidate for Secretary of State. Reagan also avoided answering questions on the Center for Arizona Policy voter guide.

Carsten also donated $160 to Terry Goddard, the Democrat running for Secretary of State and $250 to Felecia Rotellini the Democrat candidate for Attorney General. Neither Democrat responded to the Center for Arizona Policy questionnaire – which is very typical of Democrat candidates.

When it comes to state legislative races, Carstens has donated to Republican incumbents and challengers.

In LD-11, Jo Grant received $150 from Carstens in her house race. On CAP’s survey, Grant to answer the question on abortion.

Diane Landis running for House in conservative district 13, also received a donation of $100 from Carstens. Surprisingly, Landis did answer the question on CAP’s survey.

No surprise, Heather Carter pocketed $500 from Carstens in her re-election bid in LD-15. Carter dodged filling out the CAP survey altogether.

Effie Carlson received $100 as a challenger in the LD-23 house race. Carlson did respond to the CAP survey but with qualifiers.

Finally, Kate Brophy-McGee in LD-28 took at $270 donation from Carstens in her house re-election race. Brophy-McGee also evaded the CAP survey.

Another quick check for pro-life endorsements revealed that none of these candidates were endorsed by the Arizona Right to Life PAC.

One interesting pattern among the incumbents who are running for re-election is that they also supported the Obamacare Medicaid expansion vote in 2013. And one may recall that an amendment was attempted on that bill that would have prohibited tax dollars from going to abortion providers. That amendment failed thanks to these incumbents – Carter, Coleman & Brophy-McGee (see vote).

For those of you who remain committed to electing candidates who will protect innocent human life, hopefully this has been informative and an exercise in how to cross-reference candidates and their supporters. Please use this information wisely as you vote in the Primary Election.

Key Arizona Races Could Mean Big Wins for U.S.

By Joanne Moudy

As everyone knows, November 2014 will be a crucial election if Republicans hope to gain ground against Obamacare, amnesty and the skyrocketing debt. Quite frankly, if the GOP doesn’t rally in tremendous strength, this country may never recover and our grandchildren will be asking why we led them blindly down the path to the slaughterhouse.

This means that every state is critical and every seat is a must win. There are no U.S. House or Senate seats which are unimportant or inconsequential. Every single one matters.

Arizona is no exception. Currently the state enjoys the luxury of four conservative congressmen; Trent Franks, Matt Salmon, David Schweikert, and Paul Gosar, and in all likelihood, they will all be returning to Congress in November, which suits their districts just fine.

But there remain three additional U.S. House seats which could easily be gained out of the nine total in Arizona. And wouldn’t it be nice if solid Republicans picked these seats up? Nice indeed, because it would completely change the complexion of the current liberal leaning envoy from the 5-4 (D/R) to 7-2 (R/D). But the time is now or never, because even moderate, independent voters are mad about Obamacare, illegal immigration, and bad federal economic decisions, all of which are destroying this state.

On the liberal Democrat side, Reps. Krysten Sinema, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Ron Barber have experienced declining popularity because of their unwavering support of Obamacare, amnesty, and proposed Medicare cuts. At one point, Sinema knew she was in so much trouble she seriously considered switching districts to run in D-7, the heavily populated democratic region, which Ed Pastor is vacating. That would have been a much safer run for her, especially given the angst of voters over her open support of Obama’s liberal agenda.

What’s refreshing to see are three, relatively new faces entering the arena to fill these slots and all appear to be strong contenders working relentlessly to gain enlightened voter support across the state. Meet Andrew Walter, Adam Kwasman, and Chuck Wooten, all of whom bring unique talents to the fray and have excellent chances of success.

Although Andrew Walter isn’t known as a seasoned politician, he does have a familiar face around the state and country, and he’ll need it in the general race against liberal incumbent Sinema. His only opponent in the primary is Wendy Rogers, who’s run twice and lost twice. Many voters in the district are looking for a fresh candidate with a can-do attitude and believe that Walter is the person to do it.

Walter first earned his local reputation as ASU’s star quarterback and later as a 2005 draft pick for the Oakland Raiders, followed by the New England Patriots. After his football career he earned his MBA and worked in the banking industry, which gives him an in-depth business perspective on the state of our economy.

Aside from her radically liberal voting record, Sinema is a pathetic excuse for a member of congress and recently stepped in it, by taking advantage of the horrific death of 40 veterans. Sinema was quick to send out an email expressing her disappointment at the VA in one sentence, while she asked for campaign contributions in the next. When she was called out by Walter, she wasted no time in blaming a staffer. Really? How unusual for a liberal member of congress to feign ignorance, and blame someone else.

As Walter exclaimed, “Exactly how low can a person go? This is the ugliest display of political opportunism I’ve witnessed in a very long time. Not only should she accept responsibility and apologize to the entire district, she should also refund all the money, and make a donation to a veterans association – equal to the amount donated due to that email.”

Walter sees three top issues as his priorities. “One, we must unleash the American economy to create jobs by restoring basic free market principals. Two, we must repeal and replace Obamacare because nothing else will suffice, and three, we must, absolutely – not consider amnesty.” One more point worth mentioning, is that Walter does not see himself as a career politician. “I’ve signed a pledge to author an Amendment that limits the terms of members of congress. I want to help the 2014 Congress gear up and turn this country around, so that regular folks can get back to living the American dream.”

Adam Kwasman is a rising star in the largest geographical district in Arizona, and has the credentials to back up his claims of fiscal conservatism. After earning his B.A. (Cum Laude) from Tulane University, he went on to earn his M.A. in Economics from George Mason University. Before entering the Arizona state House of Representatives, his fight for constitutional liberty began when he worked at the Cato Institute in Constitutional Studies.

Kwasman’s doesn’t mince words. “I’m a Hayekian economist. Either we cut government spending, secure the borders without exception, repeal Obamacare and get the EPA out of our lives, or we lose this country.”

The incumbent, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, has the opposite view and works tirelessly promote the liberal agenda of amnesty, Obamacare and an increased EPA.

In District 1, two hot topics are the Navajo Generating Station and the Kayenta Mine which create over 1,100 jobs, mostly for Native Americans. The EPA wants to shut them down and/or levy heavy fines which would put them out of business. Instead of standing strong for the NGS, Kirkpatrick seems more interested in clean air than crucial jobs.

Kwasman doesn’t agree and wants the EPA brought under control. “They are about to shut down the Navajo Generating Station, which is completely unacceptable. The EPA is working against the people of the state of Arizona and must be stopped.”
And finally, down in the far southeastern corner of the state comes Chief Master Sergeant (Ret.) Chuck Wooten. Prior to retiring from the USAF, he held the prestigious position of 19th Air Force Command Chief, overseeing the training, morale, and welfare of 14 unit locations and 17,000 subordinate troops. After retirement, he became the V.P. of Federal Business Development for SoxedoUSA, a 20 billion/year global corporation. Today he is the founder/owner of Corona Consulting Corporation and works extensively with contractors engaged in acquisition support directed at the U.S. Government, NATO, and other cabinet-level federal agencies.

When asked why he decided to take on Barber to represent the folks in District 2, Wooten said, “I looked around at the other GOP candidates and didn’t see anyone viable. We’ve got Shelley Kais who’s background is in education and personal training, and Martha McSally who lost twice in this same race.” According to votesmart, McSally refuses to disclose her positions on key issues, making her positions suspect to voters.

“I commend her military service,” says Wooten. “But if she isn’t willing to tell voters where she stands on key issues, how can they make an educated decision at the polls?” According to public records, her mentor and primary financial backer is Senator Jon Kyl. “I don’t like how Kyl voted, and if he’s her mentor, I’m concerned she’ll ignore the root problems and just be another mouthpiece for the RINO contingency.”

“For me, I’m not afraid to say I love God, our constitution and our Judeo-Christian heritage. I’m not afraid to tell voters that we must secure and close the borders – which is a separate and distinct issue from amnesty. We must enforce immigration laws, completely repeal Obamacare, eliminate burdensome government agencies like the EPA, protect our military, and defend life.”

“Let’s face it, we’re in a war in America,” Wooten says. “A war of principals and convictions we cannot avoid. The time is now and either we turn back Obamacare and the economy, and reverse the damage that’s been caused by the liberal agenda, or we accept defeat and allow ourselves to become slaves to socialism.”

These races in Arizona aren’t unique. Take a look around your own community and state – and get involved – today. There’s no time to waste, because come November, if you haven’t gotten involved and helped candidates just like these, we may all be staring down the barrel of ruin. It is an absolute guarantee that if Arizona turns blue, Texas will be next, and then all will be lost.

My money’s on Andrew, Adam and Chuck – our next best hope for a return to a constitutional America.

Joanne Moudy is the author of “The Tenth,” a supernatural thriller exploring the very real trauma of abortion in a fictional realm. She proudly served as an officer in the military for nine years, before specializing in emergency nursing until retirement. She’s currently an Ambassador for Alliance Defending Freedom, a member of ASU’s Advisory Board for the Center for Political Thought and Leadership, and regularly speaks about the impact of abortion, liberalism, and secularism on all of humanity. You can follow her on Twitter @composedof1

Mark Brnovich Announces Candidacy for Attorney General of Arizona

Brnovich_logo

PHOENIX – Mark Brnovich (pronounced burn-o-vich) today entered the race for Arizona Attorney General. Brnovich most recently served as director of the Arizona Department of Gaming, a law enforcement agency charged with regulating tribal casinos. Mark successfully led the agency for four years, during which he cracked down on illegal gambling operations and increased seizures of illegal gambling devices.
“I am running for Attorney General to restore the dignity of the office and make sure it is dedicated to serving the people of Arizona,” said Brnovich. 

Mark_Brnovich_smRaised in Arizona, Mark Brnovich is a graduate of Arizona State University. After law school, Mark prosecuted felonies in the Gang/Repeat Offender Bureau of the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office and worked as an Assistant Attorney General for Arizona and as Assisting US Attorney for the District of Arizona.  Mark also served his country as Command Staff Judge Advocate for the 153rd Field Artillery Brigade of the Arizona Army National Guard for eight years.

“I am proud to support Mark Brnovich for Attorney General,” said Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery, “Arizona needs someone who not only has a proven track record of being tough on crime but someone whose integrity is beyond reproach.”

Mark met his wife Susan while both were working as prosecutors. They live in Phoenix with their two daughters.

Donate

Like Mark Brnovich on Facebook.

Will Mark Brnovich Challenge Tom Horne in Republican Primary for Attorney General?

The Arizona Capitol Times is reporting that State Gaming Director Mark Brnovich  submitted his resignation to Governor Brewer on Tuesday, September 3, possibly paving the way for a run as Attorney General in the Republican primary. Brnovich would challenge current embattled incumbent Tom Horne.

Brnovich was appointed to the position in 2009. He has extensive law enforcement experience including stints in the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office, US Attorney’s Office and the Arizona Attorney General’s Office. He also worked as an attorney at the Goldwater Institute.

Brnovich (reportedly pronounced “burn-o-vich”) may  be Tom Horne’s worst nightmare. A well-respected conservative with more than a decade of prosecutorial experience, rumors are already flying that Brnovich is being supported by Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery.

Whether Brnovich runs or not, most pundits agree that Tom Horne cannot win re-election given recent controversies regarding his personal and public life.

Horne is currently being investigated for illegally coordinating with an independent expenditure committee during the 2010 campaign, and is also facing a civl suit from a former employee. Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery flat out stated that Tom Horne had “broken the law.” In late 2012, the FBI revealed details of their multi-month investigation, including allegations thatHorne was engaging in an extramarital affair with a coworker.

The AZ Capitol Times is also reporting that Brnovich reserved the website address www.mark4ag.com on August 23. Which is probably a much better choice than “www.brnovich4ag.com.”

More from the Arizona Republic: 
Brnovich, a Republican, confirmed to The Arizona Republic he is considering a bid to be the state’s top attorney. If he runs, he would take the unusual step of challenging an incumbent in his own party — GOP Attorney General Tom Horne — in a primary election.

“I am seriously considering running for attorney general becuase I believe Arizonans deserve an attorney general with integrity, commitment and experience to do the right thing for the right reasons—not for personal or political reasons,” Brnovich said.

(Reposted from Western Free Press)

Republican Primary Voters Weigh In on Medicaid Expansion for Arizona

Round two of a recent poll is now out and there are some revealing numbers on how Republican primary voters feel about Governor Brewer’s push to expand Medicaid in Arizona Senator Jeff Flake and several legislative districts. Here are those results:

This memorandum is an executive summary of an automated voice recorded survey of 718 likely Republican primary voters in six legislative districts in Arizona. The legislative districts surveyed were 13, 17, 18, 20, 25 and 28. The interviews were conducted March 27th and 28th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/-­‐ 3.65% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past Republican primary voter demographics. The focus of this survey was to measure Republican primary voter opinions regarding the expansion of Medicaid, the implementation of Obamacare, as well as voter reaction to their state legislator’s support or opposition to Medicaid expansion. The survey toplines are also included with this document.

GOVERNOR BREWER IMAGE RATING

Among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts, Governor Brewer has a very strong image rating with 69% of voters having a favorable opinion of her, 23% having an unfavorable opinion of her, and 8% being undecided or not having an opinion.

SENATOR FLAKE IMAGE RATING

Senator Jeff Flake also has a very strong image rating among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts, with 70% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, 18% having an unfavorable opinion of him, and 12% being undecided or not having an opinion.

GOP PRIMARY VOTER SUPPORT FOR THE EXPANSION OF MEDICAID

Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts were asked if they support Governor Brewer’s proposal to expand Medicaid in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014. Among all respondents, 30% support the expansion of Medicaid, 51% oppose expansion, and 19% are either unsure or do not have an opinion about the issue. The following table shows responses by legislative district.

“As you may know, Governor Brewer has proposed the expansion of Medicaid in Arizona in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid in order to implement the federal government’s health care system?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 1

 

VOTER OPPOSITION FOR LEGISLATORS WHO VOTE TO EXPAND MEDICAID

To measure voter reactions if their state legislator voted to expand Medicaid, the following question was asked:

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for the expansion of Medicaid?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 2

 

Not surprisingly, among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts a majority, or 53% are less likely to reelect their legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid and only 22% would be more likely to vote for their state legislator. When looking at the results by legislative district, the percentage of voters that are less likely to reelect their state legislator ranges from a low of 37% to a high of 69%.

GOP PRIMARY VOTER SUPPORT FOR TAX INCREASE TO FUND MEDICAID EXPANSION

In addition to measuring Republican primary voter’s reactions toward their state legislators if they voted to expand Medicaid, the survey tested voter reaction to a tax increase on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid. Again, it is no surprise that Republican primary voters vigorously oppose this idea and do not want their legislators supporting a new tax on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid. Among all respondents in the six legislative districts, only 11% would be more likely to vote to reelect their legislator, and two thirds, or 68%, would not vote to reelect their legislator. In short, if an incumbent voted for such a proposal it would be toxic for their reelection. The following table shows the question responses by legislative district.

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for a new tax on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 3

 

CONCLUSION

Among the likely Republican primary voters surveyed in these six legislative districts, it is clear they oppose the expansion of Medicaid by varying degrees from a plurality of 42% to a large majority of 62%. Support for Medicaid expansion ranges from a high of 35% to a low of 26%. The survey also finds a plurality, or a majority, of Republican primary voters would be less likely to vote for their legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid in all six legislative districts. Finally, the information in this research should be of concern to incumbent legislators as they consider how to handle this issue.

View/Download the entire report including the topline results.