Biden Hits New Low in Grand Canyon State 

President Biden 15 Points Underwater with Arizona Voters Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here 
PHOENIX (March 30th, 2022)- President Joe Biden is now facing his lowest job approval rating in Arizona since taking office, according to a new tracking survey by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI). After 14 months on the job, only 40% of Arizona voters are giving the Democrat positive marks, while 55% disapprove of his job performance as of the March survey.  This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) was conducted March 7th, 2022 – March 15th, 2022 and surveyed 753 Arizona registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. 
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Driving this nosedive are Arizona’s all-important Independent voters: nearly 3 in 5 Independents disapprove of Biden’s job performance as of the March AZPOP.   Republicans are in a comfortable position as they only need one seat to regain control of the U.S. Senate, and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is a top target. On the other end, Democrats are on the defense of several congressional seats after the decennial redistricting process (the reconfiguring of political boundaries to account for population shifts reflected in the recent census) in 2021. 
“Biden’s record-low approval ratings are encouraging to Arizona Republicans as they look to notch victories in several key races,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Majority disapproval of the President always trickles down ticket as the entire party suffers residual damages.” 
The President is also facing negative numbers on nearly every issue that has dominated news headlines in recent weeks. Some of Biden’s biggest drops in approval from May 2021 to March 2022 come from the President’s handling of COVID-19, the economy, and uniting the country.  
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Voters in the Grand Canyon state are now largely split on Biden’s response to the pandemic. In last May’s AZPOP survey, his pandemic numbers were more than 30 points above water but fell to a net -2% in March 2022. When it comes to the economy, Biden is currently 22 points underwater – a 33-point drop from last May.  
“The survey shows potential warning signs for Arizona Democrats as they gear up for this November’s midterm elections following Biden’s narrow 2020 victory in the state,” said Noble.   
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### Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from March 7 to March 15, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 753 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.6%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Press Release: GOP Establishment Could be Trumped in 2024

58% of Arizona Republicans Want the Former President to Make a Comeback
Toplines and crosstabs can be found here
PHOENIX (November 18th, 2021)- Despite the nearly three years until the next presidential election, a new poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) finds that more than half of Arizona Republicans believe Donald Trump should follow in Grover Cleveland’s footsteps and become the first former president in more than a century to seek the office after losing re-election. The poll finds that, should he decide to run, Trump would be a prohibitive favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, running far ahead of any competitor in a crowded field. This survey was the newest edition of OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The AZPOP is a statewide survey that provides regular updates on the moods, opinions, and perceptions of Arizonans on hot topics facing the state. This AZPOP was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Although nearly six in ten Arizona GOP voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, the belief is not shared widely outside of the party. Only 27% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats believe that Trump should run again. On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of Independents and 80% of Democrats think that Donald Trump should “definitely not” make another run at the presidency.
2024 GOP primary chart trump run
“While former President Trump may be the ideal candidate for Republicans, nominating him could spell disaster for the party’s hopes to retake the White House,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “With only a quarter of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting a ‘Trump comeback,’ he may not be a viable candidate in the Grand Canyon State.”Diving deeper into Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. Crowded primary fields have become a trend in presidential politics recently – more than 15 Republicans participated in at least one debate in the 2016 GOP primary, and more than 20 Democrats did so in their party’s 2020 primary – and if the 2024 GOP primary shakes out in a similar way, with multiple Republicans running against Trump, the former president is in a solid position to face whomever the Democrats nominate heading into the 2024 general election. Given the option of nine prominent Republicans (Former President Donald Trump, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie), 48% of Arizona Republicans would support Trump, 16% would vote for DeSantis, and no other candidate receives more than 10% support.
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“In a fractured primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination,” said Joss. “Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans’ support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about – and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for – is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate.”The survey also found that, in the eyes of Arizona Republicans, Donald Trump Jr. would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. When asked the same 2024 GOP primary question, but replacing Donald Trump for Donald Trump Jr., the younger Trump earned the support of 8% of Republicans overall, and just 14% of Republicans who would support his father in a primary election. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are the candidates who stand to benefit the most without the former president on the ballot, earning 29% and 21% of Republicans’ support, respectively. Ted Cruz (10%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The 2024 GOP Primary becomes murkier without the former president on the ballot, as the share of those unsure whom to support nearly doubles from 9% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 16% Unsure without him.
2024 GOP Primary Trump Jr.
“As Don Jr.’s performance shows, there is something about former President Trump that Arizona Republicans like more than just the name Donald Trump,” said Joss.
###Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. The sample of registered voters also contained a subsample of 252 respondents who self-identified as being registered members of the Republican party. This subsample has a MoE +/- 6.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

POLL: Donald Trump on Track to win Arizona

MBQF

Trump and Cruz supporters bullish on the future of the party

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

PPPPoll

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.57%.

POLL: Presidential Pick

Poll: Trump Impact On Republican Chances In 2016

MBQF

Trump nomination cuts GOP motivation, and turns many GOP voters against other Republican candidates

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey commissioned by Insight Consulting, an Arizona firm, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and the effect his nomination by the Republican Party would have on voters in Arizona.

The results from the survey shows the results a Trump nomination would have on high efficacy Republican and Independent/PND primary voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates.  We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, who commissioned the poll issued the following statement: “The 2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots.  Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers.  30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates.  We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters.  A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote.  But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated.  So it’s a net loss for Republicans.  Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously.  Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner.  And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker added: “While the Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.43%.

Monday Poll: September 28, 2015

POLL: Donald Trump Defies Political Gravity In Arizona

Republicans Jazzed About Tomorrow’s Debate

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America participating in tomorrows live televised CNN debate.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 643 high efficacy primary Republican voters, conducted on September 12, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.86% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 11 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY 2016  –  September 12, 2015
Donald Trump – 29.9%
Ben Carson – 21.3%
Jeb Bush – 10.9%
Carly Fiorina – 9.3%
Ted Cruz – 6.2%
Marco Rubio – 3.9%
John Kasich – 2.8%
Scott Walker – 2.5%
Chris Christie – 2.2%
Mike Huckabee – 1.6%
Rand Paul – 1.1%
Unsure/Undecided – 8.4%

MBQF principle Michael Noble, commented on the electorate and the parties, “It appears the conventional wisdom of the DC insiders has not found a home with any of the top candidates because the electorate ain’t buying the rhetoric.  Nobody has flinched as political scare tactics and beltway bravado, lose ground to plain speak.”

“This seems to be a case where maybe the parties ought to take a page from president Reagan when asked why he left the Democratic Party, — he mused that he ‘didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me….’ — there is something Republicans might heed from that comment and this recent polling.” Noble said.

As 82.4% of Republicans surveyed indicate they will be tuning in, it is clear voters will be watching closely.  Questions arise about the relevance of obsolete status quo party politics as emerging non-politicians take center stage.

Noble added, “Donald Trump still leads the field by a comfortable margin and his overall favorability is 49.2% — but he needs to watch his negatives as well, it’s not all champagne, roses and doughnuts.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.86%.

Dr. Ben Carson Captivates Thousands During Phoenix Visit

Tuesday evening, Republican presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson delivered a passionate positive prognosis to Phoenicians and other Arizonans when he appeared at the Phoenix Convention Center. His appearance was originally scheduled to take place at Grace Community Church in Tempe but had to be moved to a larger venue to accommodate overwhelming response. According to estimates, over 12,000 were in attendance.

Dr. Carson proved his astute knowledge of the issues especially immigration, welfare, health care, economics, terrorism and foreign policy.

He encouraged the audience to research the “fiscal gap” which consists of the unfunded liabilities and currently will cost future generations $211 trillion if we don’t get it under control. (Read recent Forbes article.)

Carson reaffirmed his strong conservative populist appeal with the audience by noting his disassociation with the political moneyed establishment.

But Carson also put the liberal political media in its place after they distorted and misreported that he had supported abortion practices earlier in his career – something he vehemently clarified.

At the end of his 58 minute speech, he took questions and answers from the audience including his personal beliefs and faith. The good doctor was not bashful in admitting his love and faith in God. When asked by a young person about his favorite Bible verse, he recited Proverbs 3:5-6 – “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths straight.” 

Carson also cited the importance of heeding the warnings of our American forefathers, citing Jefferson and our founding documents.

According to a recent poll, Dr. Carson has moved into second place with likely Republican voters. The poll was conducted on August 17th and showed a surge of 6.5% since Republicans were last surveyed on July 29th. (see poll)

081715Poll

Our friends at Western Free Press captured Dr. Carson’s visit on video. Please watch the entire speech below. Please subscribe to their YouTube channel for more great video.

Ted Cruz, A Favorite with Maricopa County Republican PC’s at Recent Meeting

As part of last Saturday’s Maricopa County Repubilcan Committee Convention, a Presidential Preference Straw Poll was held and this year’s winner was Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Coming in second was Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and third was Ben Carson, whose supporters also went all out, setting up tables and hustling for votes among the GOP faithful.

Cruz’ victory wasn’t a surprise to conservative consultant Constantin Querard. “Ted Cruz does well with Republicans because he paints in bright colors and offers genuine contrast. He’s not afraid to speak the truth and his message of opportunity and optimism resonates with voters.” said Querard, who admitted to being a Cruz fan and whipping the vote for his preferred candidate in the straw poll.

Walker remains a conservative hero after passing several reforms in his blue state and then surviving a massive and well-funded recall effort.

Carson’s opposition to ObamaCare seemed to be his greatest selling point, although questions remain about his position on 2nd Amendment issues in particular.

Other candidates who performed well included Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Rand Paul.

The candidates and their vote totals were as follows:

Ted Cruz 66
Scott Walker 59
Ben Carson 49
Mitt Romney 43
Jeb Bush 30
Rand Paul 29
Mike Huckabee 16
Rick Perry 13
Allen West 10
John Kasich 7
Newt Gingrich 5
Bobby Jindal 5
Condoleezza Rice 5
Dennis Michael Lynch 4
Rick Santorum 4
John Bolton 3
Marco Rubio 3
Chris Christie 2
Susana Martinez 2
Sarah Palin 2
Mike Pence 2
Herman Cain 1
Mitch Daniels 1
Nikki Haley 1
Paul Ryan 1
John Thune 1