POLL: Donald Trump on Track to win Arizona

MBQF

Trump and Cruz supporters bullish on the future of the party

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

PPPPoll

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.57%.

POLL: Presidential Pick

Poll: Trump Impact On Republican Chances In 2016

MBQF

Trump nomination cuts GOP motivation, and turns many GOP voters against other Republican candidates

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey commissioned by Insight Consulting, an Arizona firm, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and the effect his nomination by the Republican Party would have on voters in Arizona.

The results from the survey shows the results a Trump nomination would have on high efficacy Republican and Independent/PND primary voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates.  We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, who commissioned the poll issued the following statement: “The 2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots.  Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers.  30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates.  We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters.  A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote.  But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated.  So it’s a net loss for Republicans.  Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously.  Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner.  And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker added: “While the Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.43%.

Monday Poll: September 28, 2015

POLL: Donald Trump Defies Political Gravity In Arizona

Republicans Jazzed About Tomorrow’s Debate

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America participating in tomorrows live televised CNN debate.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 643 high efficacy primary Republican voters, conducted on September 12, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.86% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 11 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY 2016  –  September 12, 2015
Donald Trump – 29.9%
Ben Carson – 21.3%
Jeb Bush – 10.9%
Carly Fiorina – 9.3%
Ted Cruz – 6.2%
Marco Rubio – 3.9%
John Kasich – 2.8%
Scott Walker – 2.5%
Chris Christie – 2.2%
Mike Huckabee – 1.6%
Rand Paul – 1.1%
Unsure/Undecided – 8.4%

MBQF principle Michael Noble, commented on the electorate and the parties, “It appears the conventional wisdom of the DC insiders has not found a home with any of the top candidates because the electorate ain’t buying the rhetoric.  Nobody has flinched as political scare tactics and beltway bravado, lose ground to plain speak.”

“This seems to be a case where maybe the parties ought to take a page from president Reagan when asked why he left the Democratic Party, — he mused that he ‘didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me….’ — there is something Republicans might heed from that comment and this recent polling.” Noble said.

As 82.4% of Republicans surveyed indicate they will be tuning in, it is clear voters will be watching closely.  Questions arise about the relevance of obsolete status quo party politics as emerging non-politicians take center stage.

Noble added, “Donald Trump still leads the field by a comfortable margin and his overall favorability is 49.2% — but he needs to watch his negatives as well, it’s not all champagne, roses and doughnuts.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.86%.

Dr. Ben Carson Captivates Thousands During Phoenix Visit

Tuesday evening, Republican presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson delivered a passionate positive prognosis to Phoenicians and other Arizonans when he appeared at the Phoenix Convention Center. His appearance was originally scheduled to take place at Grace Community Church in Tempe but had to be moved to a larger venue to accommodate overwhelming response. According to estimates, over 12,000 were in attendance.

Dr. Carson proved his astute knowledge of the issues especially immigration, welfare, health care, economics, terrorism and foreign policy.

He encouraged the audience to research the “fiscal gap” which consists of the unfunded liabilities and currently will cost future generations $211 trillion if we don’t get it under control. (Read recent Forbes article.)

Carson reaffirmed his strong conservative populist appeal with the audience by noting his disassociation with the political moneyed establishment.

But Carson also put the liberal political media in its place after they distorted and misreported that he had supported abortion practices earlier in his career – something he vehemently clarified.

At the end of his 58 minute speech, he took questions and answers from the audience including his personal beliefs and faith. The good doctor was not bashful in admitting his love and faith in God. When asked by a young person about his favorite Bible verse, he recited Proverbs 3:5-6 – “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths straight.” 

Carson also cited the importance of heeding the warnings of our American forefathers, citing Jefferson and our founding documents.

According to a recent poll, Dr. Carson has moved into second place with likely Republican voters. The poll was conducted on August 17th and showed a surge of 6.5% since Republicans were last surveyed on July 29th. (see poll)

081715Poll

Our friends at Western Free Press captured Dr. Carson’s visit on video. Please watch the entire speech below. Please subscribe to their YouTube channel for more great video.

Ted Cruz, A Favorite with Maricopa County Republican PC’s at Recent Meeting

As part of last Saturday’s Maricopa County Repubilcan Committee Convention, a Presidential Preference Straw Poll was held and this year’s winner was Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Coming in second was Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and third was Ben Carson, whose supporters also went all out, setting up tables and hustling for votes among the GOP faithful.

Cruz’ victory wasn’t a surprise to conservative consultant Constantin Querard. “Ted Cruz does well with Republicans because he paints in bright colors and offers genuine contrast. He’s not afraid to speak the truth and his message of opportunity and optimism resonates with voters.” said Querard, who admitted to being a Cruz fan and whipping the vote for his preferred candidate in the straw poll.

Walker remains a conservative hero after passing several reforms in his blue state and then surviving a massive and well-funded recall effort.

Carson’s opposition to ObamaCare seemed to be his greatest selling point, although questions remain about his position on 2nd Amendment issues in particular.

Other candidates who performed well included Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Rand Paul.

The candidates and their vote totals were as follows:

Ted Cruz 66
Scott Walker 59
Ben Carson 49
Mitt Romney 43
Jeb Bush 30
Rand Paul 29
Mike Huckabee 16
Rick Perry 13
Allen West 10
John Kasich 7
Newt Gingrich 5
Bobby Jindal 5
Condoleezza Rice 5
Dennis Michael Lynch 4
Rick Santorum 4
John Bolton 3
Marco Rubio 3
Chris Christie 2
Susana Martinez 2
Sarah Palin 2
Mike Pence 2
Herman Cain 1
Mitch Daniels 1
Nikki Haley 1
Paul Ryan 1
John Thune 1