POLL: Maricopa County Voters Say Raise Age to 21 to Buy Tobacco, Keep Coyotes in Glendale

MBQF
MarsonMedia

Poll also shows voters want Arizona Coyotes to stay in Glendale

(Phoenix, AZ) — Only adults 21 and over should be able to buy tobacco products, according to a new poll of Maricopa County voters.

Of the 584 respondents to a poll conducted Dec. 29 by MBQF Consulting and Marson Media, 72 percent said they support increasing the age to buy tobacco from 18 to 21. Just 28 percent oppose the move.

The poll also found Maricopa County voters prefer the Arizona Coyotes remain in Glendale, 55-45. And finally, Maricopa County approve of Indian tribes opening Las Vegas-style casinos off traditional reservation land by a margin of 45-39.

“It is clear among all political stripes that voters want to increase the legal age to buy tobacco to 21,” said Barrett Marson, CEO of Marson Media. “As cities in Maricopa County consider these proposals, they can move forward knowing voters support the move.”

Mike Noble Added, “What was interesting was that support to increase the legal age was basically the same between Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters.”

Despite spotty attendance performance throughout its years in Glendale, voters don’t support moving the Arizona Coyotes to a downtown Phoenix or East Valley location, the poll found. The team has said it will explore a move to a new arena downtown or could build an arena on the Salt River Pima Indian Community near Scottsdale.

“The Coyotes are locked in a battle with Glendale but voters actually prefer the team stays in the Gila River Arena,” said Mike Noble, CEO of MBQF Consulting.

As for Indian gaming, county voters appear OK with tribes opening casinos off of traditional reservation land. The Tohono O’odham recently opened a casino near Glendale though it lacks table games like blackjack that are at other casinos.

“Voters don’t mind Indian casinos in the metropolitan area even if they are operated by tribes far away,” Marson said.

In the automated telephonic non-partisan survey of 584 high efficacy voters, conducted on December 29, the survey calculates a 4.06% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points.

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble or Barrett Marson.

MBQF Poll: Trump De-Throned In Arizona

Dr. Ben Carson Takes the Lead in Arizona

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 1,057 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on October 29, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.01% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 10 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP Presidential Primary 2016
October 29, 2015 Results
Ben Carson
25.5%
Donald Trump
24.8%
Ted Cruz
15.2%
Marco Rubio
14.8%
Jeb Bush
6.8%
Carly Fiorina
3.5%
John Kasich
3.1%
Chris Christie
2.6%
Mike Huckabee
1.4%
Rand Paul
0.8%
Unsure/Undecided
1.4%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “Roughly 80% of the electorate is starting to settle on four candidates.  Carson is now slightly ahead of Trump in the overall horse race.  Senator Cruz saw the biggest jump in support, which is likely based on his recent debate performance.  The anti-establishment streak in this years Republican electorate is still running strong.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.01%.

INSTANT POLL: Who Won the GOP Debate?

Who won the GOP debate?

MBQF Poll: Joe Arpaio Has 50/50 Chance Of Re-Election

Also, Tested was School Bonds, Pot Convention and Education Tax

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs and consulting firm, announced results of a recent survey dealing with the nationally known, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who could be facing his toughest re-election battle yet.  We also looked at several other current issues in Arizona, primarily within Maricopa County.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 559 high efficacy voters in Maricopa County, conducted on October 19, 2015, the survey calculates a 4.14% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The survey asked several questions of voters.  The first was a basic re-elect question regarding Sheriff Joe Arpaio, “Looking ahead to next year’s election for Maricopa County Sheriff, do you think that Joe Arpaio should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to give someone else a chance?”

Arpaio Re-Elect Question
Results
Should be re-elected
50.45%
Give someone else a chance
49.55%

Party Breakdown

Republicans
Democrats
Independents/PND
Should be re-elected
53%
48%
49%
Give someone else a chance
47%
52%
51%

The second question was phrased, “Recently, the Republican Party of Maricopa County has decided to oppose ALL 28 school district overrides and bond ballot initiatives come this November.  Arizona is one of the lowest ranked states in the United States when it comes to education.  Would you consider the Republican Party of Maricopa Counties stance on these bonds as obstructionist or as fiscal prudence?”

County GOP-No on all Education
Results
Obstructionist
41.50%
Fiscal prudence
39.36%
No opinion
19.14%

The third question was phrased, “Given what you know about Arizona’s education system, would you be willing to pay slightly more generally in taxes to invest in Arizona’s Education System?”

Invest in Education System
Results
Yes
46.33%
No
39.18%
Unsure
14.49%

The fourth question was phrased, “The Phoenix Convention center will be hosting the “Southwest Cannabis Conference & Expo” at the end of this month.  Do you think that is a good idea or bad idea to host this event?”

Pot Expo – Good/Bad?
Results
Good idea to host event
36.31%
Bad idea to host event
29.52%
No opinion
34.17%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement:

“With Maricopa County voters split on whether America’s Toughest Sheriff deserves another four years, the data shows Sheriff Joe will have his toughest campaign ever.  Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are near evenly split.  In addition, a small plurality of county voters say they are open to paying more for education.  With most eyes focused on the Presidential election next November, Arizona voters have some big choices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.14%.

Poll: The Republican Race for US Senate

Monday Poll: September 28, 2015

MEDIA BLACKOUT – 35% of AZDems, 47% of AZ Latinos Support Deportation

illegals

A recent poll conducted by ASU’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy focused on several issues including the most important issue facing Arizona and our economy, illegal immigration.  The stunning results were intentionally muted by the local media in order to hide the fact that a large swath of Arizona Democrats agree with conservatives on the issue of deporting those in the country illegally.

Possibly more stunning than the fact that 35% of Democrats agree with conservatives on enforcing current immigration law is that Arizona Latinos agree with conservatives at a greater rate than Arizona Democrats — 47%.

What portion of the poll did the news editors choose to cover? Pot legalization.

Here are the main points from the poll:

  • 30% of AZ Dems & 51% of AZ Latinos disagree with the following statement – “Undocumented immigrants bolster Arizona’s workforce and we should do whatever’s necessary to make it easier for them to come to Arizona.”
  • 35% of AZ Dems, 47% of Latinos, & 53% of Independents agree with the following statement –  “Arizona should aggressively pursue the deportation of undocumented immigrants”

We at ArizonaInformer are waiting with baited breath for Phoenix New Slimes “Fat Bastard” Stephen Lemons, Laurie Roberts, and Brahm Resnik to label Arizona Democrats and Latinos as racist, nativists, who seek to ‘ethnically cleanse’ Arizona.

AZ01 Poll: Andy Tobin Leads Ann Kirkpatrick by 8 Points

In the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District, challenger Andy Tobin holds a substantial 8 point lead over incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, 51 percent to 43 percent, demonstrating a clear path to victory for Tobin.

The poll, taken September 2-4, was conducted by Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected pollsters in the country who has experience accurately polling in Arizona (see attached memo for full analysis).

Tobin holds a strong 7 point advantage among Independents, and is attracting significant cross-over appeal, earning 18 percent of the vote among registered Democrats. President Obama is very unpopular in the district, with a 57 percent disapproval rating, as is the Affordable Care Act (58 percent disapprove).

“The data speaks for itself: Ann Kirkpatrick’s record has caught up to her, and voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District are looking for a new voice to represent them in Congress,” said Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese. “Arizonans clearly see Kirkpatrick as part of the problem in Washington and are looking to Andy Tobin for a fresh start.”

Some of the key findings:

Congressional Ballot
Tobin: 51%
Kirkpatrick: 43%
Undecided: 6%

Obama Job Approval
Disapprove: 57%
Approve: 38%

Generic Ballot
Republican: 50%
Democrat: 42%

Kirkpatrick Reelect
Ready For Someone New: 53%
Kirkpatrick Deserves Reelection: 35%

Affordable Care Act
Disapprove: 58%
Approve: 39%

Governor’s Race in AZ-01
Ducey: 47%
DuVal: 34%

New Poll: What is the MOST important issue in the Governor’s Race?

Adam Kwasman, Ann Kirkpatrick Tied in Congressional Race

Incumbent dangerously below 50% 

Oro Valley – State Representative and congressional candidate Adam Kwasman commissioned McLaughlin and Associates to survey likely general election voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District.  A summary of the results can be seen below.  

TO:           Interested Parties

FROM:     John McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE:          Arizona CD 1 Survey – Key Findings

Date:        December 12, 2013_____________________________________________________________________

Key Findings

1.     State Representative Adam Kwasman is statistically tied with the incumbent, Ann Kirkpatrick, who is dangerously far from the margin needed for re-election. 

Among those most likely to vote, 42% preferred Kwasman and 41% selected Kirkpatrick. Overall, 42.7% of all likely voters chose Kirkpatrick to 40% who preferred Kwasman, a statistical tie, with eleven months remaining in the election.  42.7% is a dangerously low level of support for any incumbent.

2.     Kwasman has nearly unlimited room to grow; Kirkpatrick, with 92.7% name identification, is unlikely to increase her numbers.

Kirkpatrick is nearly universally known after her three races for Congress.  Notably, she has fallen far from the 48% share of the vote she won in 2012.  Kwasman is known by only 23.7% of the voters.

3.     Kirkpatrick’s core support is anemic

After three elections for Congress, only 23.7% of the voters will definitely support Kirkpatrick.

4.     Voters overwhelmingly prefer a Republican check on the president to a Democrat who will hand the president a blank check. 

By a margin of 53.3% to 37.7%, voters selected a Republican member of Congress who would serve as “a check and balance to President Obama” versus a “Democrat who will help President Obama pass his agenda.”  This is unsurprising, in light of the President’s 40.7% – 56.7% job approval/disapproval rating.  Kirkpatrick, who famously said that she would not second guess this President, has positioned herself sharply at odds with her constituents.

The Bottom Line 

Ann Kirkpatrick is in greater jeopardy of losing her seat than previously thought.  Though nearly universally known, her support is far from what is necessary to secure another term.  All of this is predicated on the same turnout model that elected Kirkpatrick in 2012. If Republican turnout increases as a share of the electorate, as it has in previous midterm elections, then the above numbers grow considerably worse for Kirkpatrick.

 

Demographic Breakdown:

PARTY % AGE TOTAL
Republican 36% Under 40 23%
Democrat 39% 41 – 55 21%
Independent/Other 23% 56 – 65 29%
IDEOLOGY % Over 65 26%
Liberal 23% GENDER %
Moderate 27% Male 47%
Conservative 45% Female 53%
RACE % AREA %
White 65% Apache County 10%
Hispanic 21% Phoenix Media Market 71%
Native American 5% Pima County 19%
Other 3% STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT %
OBAMA JOB RATING % Kwasman (LD 11) 32%
Approve 41% Rest of District 68%
Disapprove 57%

*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology: This survey of 300 likely 2014 general election voters in Arizona’s first congressional district was conducted on December 9th and 10th, 2013. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. This poll of 300 likely 2014 general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
For more information about Adam Kwasman’s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.