Adam Kwasman, Ann Kirkpatrick Tied in Congressional Race

Incumbent dangerously below 50% 

Oro Valley – State Representative and congressional candidate Adam Kwasman commissioned McLaughlin and Associates to survey likely general election voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District.  A summary of the results can be seen below.  

TO:           Interested Parties

FROM:     John McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE:          Arizona CD 1 Survey – Key Findings

Date:        December 12, 2013_____________________________________________________________________

Key Findings

1.     State Representative Adam Kwasman is statistically tied with the incumbent, Ann Kirkpatrick, who is dangerously far from the margin needed for re-election. 

Among those most likely to vote, 42% preferred Kwasman and 41% selected Kirkpatrick. Overall, 42.7% of all likely voters chose Kirkpatrick to 40% who preferred Kwasman, a statistical tie, with eleven months remaining in the election.  42.7% is a dangerously low level of support for any incumbent.

2.     Kwasman has nearly unlimited room to grow; Kirkpatrick, with 92.7% name identification, is unlikely to increase her numbers.

Kirkpatrick is nearly universally known after her three races for Congress.  Notably, she has fallen far from the 48% share of the vote she won in 2012.  Kwasman is known by only 23.7% of the voters.

3.     Kirkpatrick’s core support is anemic

After three elections for Congress, only 23.7% of the voters will definitely support Kirkpatrick.

4.     Voters overwhelmingly prefer a Republican check on the president to a Democrat who will hand the president a blank check. 

By a margin of 53.3% to 37.7%, voters selected a Republican member of Congress who would serve as “a check and balance to President Obama” versus a “Democrat who will help President Obama pass his agenda.”  This is unsurprising, in light of the President’s 40.7% – 56.7% job approval/disapproval rating.  Kirkpatrick, who famously said that she would not second guess this President, has positioned herself sharply at odds with her constituents.

The Bottom Line 

Ann Kirkpatrick is in greater jeopardy of losing her seat than previously thought.  Though nearly universally known, her support is far from what is necessary to secure another term.  All of this is predicated on the same turnout model that elected Kirkpatrick in 2012. If Republican turnout increases as a share of the electorate, as it has in previous midterm elections, then the above numbers grow considerably worse for Kirkpatrick.

 

Demographic Breakdown:

PARTY % AGE TOTAL
Republican 36% Under 40 23%
Democrat 39% 41 – 55 21%
Independent/Other 23% 56 – 65 29%
IDEOLOGY % Over 65 26%
Liberal 23% GENDER %
Moderate 27% Male 47%
Conservative 45% Female 53%
RACE % AREA %
White 65% Apache County 10%
Hispanic 21% Phoenix Media Market 71%
Native American 5% Pima County 19%
Other 3% STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT %
OBAMA JOB RATING % Kwasman (LD 11) 32%
Approve 41% Rest of District 68%
Disapprove 57%

*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology: This survey of 300 likely 2014 general election voters in Arizona’s first congressional district was conducted on December 9th and 10th, 2013. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. This poll of 300 likely 2014 general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
For more information about Adam Kwasman’s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.

New Poll Shows Competitive Republican Primary Race, Approvals

Susquehanna Polling & Research Poll Finds Bennett in the Lead

Phoenix, AZ, DEC. 10, 2013—Current Secretary of State and former Senate president Ken Bennett is the early favorite in the upcoming Republican primary for governor, according to the latest poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research. He leads with 20% of the vote in a potential 6-way primary against State Treasurer Doug Ducey (8%) and Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (6%), who is still an undeclared candidate. Both Christine Jones, former GoDaddy attorney and Andrew Thomas, former Maricopa County attorney, have 4% of the vote each. Al Melvin, a current state senator from Tucson is last at 2%, while 53% remain undecided.

The following points include key findings from the poll, which was conducted from November 27th to December 4, 2013:

  • “Given the high undecided, it’s still way too early to predict a victory for anyone,” Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling & Research said. However, because Bennett is the favorite with the Latter Day Saint (LDS) community and the tea party, his support will be harder to crack than other business and establishment type candidates. On the other hand, both Ducey and Jones are expected to raise millions of dollars to increase their statewide name ID (not including IE’s), while Bennett is relying on public funds. To their advantage, both Ducey and Bennett have experience running a statewide race. However, there is also a chance they will split the conservative vote, opening the door for Jones. “In a six-way race with at least four of the six considered formidable, whichever candidate gets 25% to 35% of the vote could be the winner in a low turnout type election typical of primaries,” Lee said.
  • Regardless of who wins the primary, two potential matchups of GOP candidates against presumptive Democratic nominee Fred DuVal shows both Bennett and Ducey with small leads over their Democrat opponent. Bennett leads DuVal 38-33, while Ducey leads DuVal 36-33. Both Bennett and Ducey do equally well against DuVal with Republicans, at 64-10 and 60-9, respectively. One of DuVal’s advantages could be the absence of a contested primary and the ability to harness resources, while a competitive and hotly contested GOP field could produce a damaged GOP nominee. “Nonetheless, the closeness of both races show that the governor’s race next November could be very competitive regardless of whom the nominees are,” Leslie Kelly, Regional Director of Business Development said.
  • Another question that may give insights into the race is the poll’s right direction/wrong track question. Currently, 49% say Arizona is headed in the wrong direction, while 39% say the state is on the right track. This negative result could suggest a sentiment for change, or some discontent with the status quo which potentially benefits DuVal and/or the Democrats if they campaign as agents of change with a new direction for the state. Republicans say the state is going in the right direction by a 51-36 margin, while Democrats lean “wrong” track by a 66:20 or better than a 3:1 margin. Independents are nearly divided (42-49 in favor of wrong track).

Methodology

This poll was conducted by Voter Survey Service, a division of Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Completed interviews were conducted November 27-December 4, 2013 with 600 registered voters, all of whom have vote history in past general elections (i.e., G2012, G2010 and/or G2008). Calls are made from a voter registration list purchased from our telephone list vendor, Labels & Lists, specializing in updated voter registration records for the state of Arizona. The sample frame was a landline telephone sample, with mixed modality including interviews conducted via live telephone agents using our professionally-trained survey research staff from our telephone call center in Harrisburg, as well as interviews conducted with automated polling software. Interviews are conducted randomly using probability-based sampling designs and closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of Arizona’s electorate is achieved based on geography, gender, age, party affiliation and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted to account for either non-response or coverage bias. This poll was not paid for by any political party, candidate for public office or other group and was conducted mainly for public
dissemination and internal analysis.

The margin of error for a sample size of 600 interviews is +/-4.00% at the 95% confidence level.

© Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. is a nationally known survey research and polling firm for both candidates for public office (GOP only) as well as various corporations, association clients and media outlets. Voter Survey Service (VSS) is a division of SP&R and conducts surveys in more than a dozen states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, West Virginia and others. SP&R recently served as the pollster for Mayor-elect Don Guardian in his historic upset victory in the 11/5 mayoral election in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
More information about our firm can be found at www.susquehannapolling.com.

SPR121013

POLL: Paul Babeu, Early Favorite in Congressional Race AZ01

MBQF

Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claimed a strong lead among likely Republican primary voters for the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona’s 1st District, said consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 349 likely Republican primary voters, 27.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. State House Speaker Andy Tobin trailed a distant second in the poll of potential Republican primary candidates with 5.1%.

Also polled were businessman Gaither Martin (4.6%), and State Representative Adam Kwasman and Doug McKee, who each received 2.1% of respondents’ votes. And with no announced Republican candidate in the race, 58.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2014 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. Nearly one-third of voters (29.2%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 28% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues which would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.9%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 9.2% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 8.6% of respondents. And 4.9% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue which would determine their vote next year. Just 7.2% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on June 26, 2013, from a sample of registered Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 349 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 5.20%.

Friday Poll: Do You Support/Oppose Obamacare’s Medicaid Expansion in Arizona?

In case you missed it, the Arizona Executive and Legislative branches are embroiled in a battle over expanding Obamacare’s Medicaid program in Arizona. Here is the latest Friday poll gauging our reader’s position on this issue. Votes are scheduled in the Arizona House next week.

Friday Poll: The Race for Arizona’s CD-1

We’re still in the early stages of the 2014 mid-term election and that means that individuals are starting to prepare to become candidates in campaigns for Congress.

With Ann Kirkpatrick in trouble in Arizona’s 1st Congressional district, we’re asking our readers to weigh in on who they best think would win back the district for Republicans.

Some of these names are confirmed but others are speculation or wishful thinking. Here’s your chance to vote:

Republican Primary Voters Weigh In on Medicaid Expansion for Arizona

Round two of a recent poll is now out and there are some revealing numbers on how Republican primary voters feel about Governor Brewer’s push to expand Medicaid in Arizona Senator Jeff Flake and several legislative districts. Here are those results:

This memorandum is an executive summary of an automated voice recorded survey of 718 likely Republican primary voters in six legislative districts in Arizona. The legislative districts surveyed were 13, 17, 18, 20, 25 and 28. The interviews were conducted March 27th and 28th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/-­‐ 3.65% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past Republican primary voter demographics. The focus of this survey was to measure Republican primary voter opinions regarding the expansion of Medicaid, the implementation of Obamacare, as well as voter reaction to their state legislator’s support or opposition to Medicaid expansion. The survey toplines are also included with this document.

GOVERNOR BREWER IMAGE RATING

Among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts, Governor Brewer has a very strong image rating with 69% of voters having a favorable opinion of her, 23% having an unfavorable opinion of her, and 8% being undecided or not having an opinion.

SENATOR FLAKE IMAGE RATING

Senator Jeff Flake also has a very strong image rating among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts, with 70% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, 18% having an unfavorable opinion of him, and 12% being undecided or not having an opinion.

GOP PRIMARY VOTER SUPPORT FOR THE EXPANSION OF MEDICAID

Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts were asked if they support Governor Brewer’s proposal to expand Medicaid in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014. Among all respondents, 30% support the expansion of Medicaid, 51% oppose expansion, and 19% are either unsure or do not have an opinion about the issue. The following table shows responses by legislative district.

“As you may know, Governor Brewer has proposed the expansion of Medicaid in Arizona in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid in order to implement the federal government’s health care system?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 1

 

VOTER OPPOSITION FOR LEGISLATORS WHO VOTE TO EXPAND MEDICAID

To measure voter reactions if their state legislator voted to expand Medicaid, the following question was asked:

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for the expansion of Medicaid?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 2

 

Not surprisingly, among Republican primary voters in the six legislative districts a majority, or 53% are less likely to reelect their legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid and only 22% would be more likely to vote for their state legislator. When looking at the results by legislative district, the percentage of voters that are less likely to reelect their state legislator ranges from a low of 37% to a high of 69%.

GOP PRIMARY VOTER SUPPORT FOR TAX INCREASE TO FUND MEDICAID EXPANSION

In addition to measuring Republican primary voter’s reactions toward their state legislators if they voted to expand Medicaid, the survey tested voter reaction to a tax increase on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid. Again, it is no surprise that Republican primary voters vigorously oppose this idea and do not want their legislators supporting a new tax on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid. Among all respondents in the six legislative districts, only 11% would be more likely to vote to reelect their legislator, and two thirds, or 68%, would not vote to reelect their legislator. In short, if an incumbent voted for such a proposal it would be toxic for their reelection. The following table shows the question responses by legislative district.

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for a new tax on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid?”

Medicaid GOP Primary 3

 

CONCLUSION

Among the likely Republican primary voters surveyed in these six legislative districts, it is clear they oppose the expansion of Medicaid by varying degrees from a plurality of 42% to a large majority of 62%. Support for Medicaid expansion ranges from a high of 35% to a low of 26%. The survey also finds a plurality, or a majority, of Republican primary voters would be less likely to vote for their legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid in all six legislative districts. Finally, the information in this research should be of concern to incumbent legislators as they consider how to handle this issue.

View/Download the entire report including the topline results.

New Poll Reflects Voter Opinion on Governor Brewer, Legislators on Expanding Medicaid in Arizona

Sonoran Alliance has obtained a recent poll that was conducted in Arizona on the latest public policy issue being debated among Arizonans – Obamacare’s expansion of Medicaid in Arizona. This poll demonstrates the current attitude toward Governor Brewer, Legislators and the implementation of Obamacare. Magellan Strategies conducted the poll at the end of March. Here are the results of the poll:

ARIZONA MEDICAID EXPANSION SURVEY AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

This memorandum is an executive summary of an automated voice recorded survey of 812 Arizona registered voters. The survey was conducted on March 27th and 28th and has a margin of error of 3.44% at the 95% confidence interval. The focus of this survey was to measure voter opinion regarding the expansion of Medicaid, the implementation of Obamacare, as well as voter reaction to their state legislator’s support or opposition to Medicaid expansion. The survey toplines are also included with this document.

GOVERNOR BREWER IMAGE RATING

Among all voters, Governor Brewer has a respectable net‐positive image rating with 49% of respondents having a favorable opinion of her, 40% having an unfavorable opinion of her, and 11% being undecided or not having an opinion. She is more popular among male voters than female voters, with 53% of men having a favorable opinion of her compared to 46% of women having a favorable opinion of her. Among senior voters aged 65 or older, 52% have a favorable opinion of her and 39% have an unfavorable opinion of her.

VOTER SUPPORT AND OPPOSITION FOR THE EXPANSION OF MEDICAID

When voters are asked if they support Governor Brewer’s proposal to expand Medicaid in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014, we find opinion almost evenly split. Among all respondents, 41% support the expansion of Medicaid, 37% oppose expansion, and 22% are either unsure or have no opinion about the issue. There are significant differences in support for expansion by party, with only 25% of Republicans supporting expansion compared to 62% of Democrats supporting expansion. “Independent” voters are split on the issue with 37% supporting expansion, 35% opposing expansion, and 28% are either unsure or have no opinion about the issue. The following table shows Medicaid expansion support and opposition by voter subgroup.

“As you may know, Governor Brewer has proposed the expansion of Medicaid in Arizona in order to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid in order to implement the federal government’s health care system?”

Arizona Medicaid Poll 1

ARIZONA VOTER SUPPORT FOR FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF OBAMACARE

When comparing voter support for Medicaid expansion to the full implementation of Obamacare, it is clear the full implementation of Obamacare has far less support than Medicaid expansion. While the issue of Medicaid expansion is nearly split among Arizona voters (41% support/37% oppose), 58% of all voters oppose the full implementation of Obamacare and a majority of those voters, 51%, strongly oppose the full implementation of Obamacare. Looking at the responses to this question by party, a whopping 87% of Republican voters oppose the full implementation of Obamacare and only 10% support it. Among Democrat voters, a plurality of 44% support full implementation of Obamacare and 35% oppose it. Among independent voters, two thirds, or 62%, oppose full implementation of Obamacare and 34% support full implementation.

VOTER SUPPORT FOR LEGISLATORS WHO VOTE TO EXPAND MEDICAID

To measure voter reactions if their state legislator voted to expand Medicaid, the following question was asked:

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for the expansion of Medicaid?”

Arizona Medicaid Poll 2

Not surprisingly, 63% of Republican voters would be less likely to vote for their state legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid and only 17% would be more likely to vote for their state legislator. Among Democrat voters, a plurality, or 47%, would be more likely to vote for their legislator if their legislator voted to expand Medicaid, and 30% would be less likely. Among independent voters, 28% would be more likely to vote for their legislator, 34% would be less likely and 38% were either unsure or did not have an opinion.

VOTER SUPPORT FOR TAX INCREASE TO FUND MEDICAID EXPANSION

In addition to measuring voter’s reactions toward their state legislators if they voted to expand Medicaid, the survey tested voter reaction for a tax increase on hospitals to fund the expansion of Medicaid. As the data in the table below indicates, voters do not want their legislators supporting a new tax on hospitals to fund Medicaid. Among all respondents, 57% would be less likely to vote for their state legislator, and among Republican voters, 72% would be less likely to vote for their legislator.

“Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for a new tax on hospitals to fund the expansion of  Medicaid?”

Arizona Medicaid Poll 3

CONCLUSION

Among all Arizona voters, 41% support Governor Brewer’s effort to expand Medicaid in order to implement the federal government’s health care system by 2014, and 37% of voters oppose it. Among Republican voters, 57% oppose expansion and only 25% support it. In addition, 63% of Republican respondents indicated that they would be less likely to vote for their state legislator if they voted to expand Medicaid. These two data points should be a cause for concern among Republican legislators when considering how to vote on this issue. Republican legislators that support Medicaid expansion could make themselves vulnerable to a primary challenge.

View/Download the entire report including the topline results.

 

New Poll: Who will win the Republican nomination in CD-6?

Who should the Republican Nominee be from Arizona’s CD-9?

Poll: Was the defeat of Russell Pearce a “green light” to comprehensive immigration reform including amnesty?

NEWS ALERT: Romney Pulls Ahead in Arizona

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 21, 2011
CONTACT: Chad Willems

PHOENIX, AZ – The Summit Consulting Group is pleased to release top line results from a live telephone survey of 600 likely Republican Presidential Preference voters statewide. The survey was conducted September 19th and 20th and has a margin of error of ± 4%.

The Key Findings:
Now, if the Feb 28th Presidential preference primary were held today and the Republican candidates were (ROTATE): Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

Mitt Romney 31%
Rick Perry 25%
Michele Bachmann 5%
Herman Cain 5%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Ron Paul 3%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Rick Santorum >1%
UNDECIDED 24%

Summary:
While this is our first Presidential Preference survey for the 2012 election, it appears Arizona Republican voters have narrowed their choices down to two top contenders. Clearly this race is now between Governors Perry and Romney. Governor Romney has visited the state multiple times while Governor Perry has yet to make a visit to the Grand Canyon state. Rep. Bachmann has visited Arizona twice in the last six months, most recently for a private campaign fundraiser as well as a meeting with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Nearly 8 in 10 respondents (77%) identified their political ideology as “conservative,” nearly 20% as “moderates” while the remainder self-identified themselves as “liberal” Republicans.

This survey was not commissioned by any of the candidates but is only part of an ongoing series of public opinion surveys on topics of political interest Summit will be conducting throughout the election cycle.

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Poll Results, Prognosis: Overwhelming Doom & Gloom!

We have to admit that the results from last week’s Friday poll did not surprise us. For months, We have been hearing plenty of pessimism from pundits, our readers and the voters. What we did not expect was how bad the collective prognosis really is.

Here is the graphic of the poll results:

Looking at the numbers, almost 34% believe the US is heading in the wrong direction but even more shocking is that 48% polled believe we are heading for catastrophe!

Almost 82% of our readers believe we’re in deep trouble!

We’d love to hear your continued comments about the poll as well as where you think we’re heading.

As we close out this poll, perhaps this YouTube video by Paul Revere 2012, captures the sentiment of Americans:

YouTube Preview Image

 

Polling Anyone?

Have had several email alerting us to the following telephone survey questions:

1. Will you vote for John McCain?
and,
2. What is your likelihood of voting in the primary?

Has anyone else received this telephone survey and if so were the questions the same?

One would expect that results would be released if the answers were positive but we are yet to hear anything regarding this poll.