New Poll: Mesa Residents Overwhelmingly Want Council Member To Resign After Second DUI Charge

Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) – The Public Integrity Alliance recently commissioned two polls, both conducted by Data Orbital that shows Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle largely favored to resign after second super extreme DUI arrest. Councilman Winkle, in his first time on the Mesa City Council, has faced recent scrutiny after an arrest in Tempe where he allegedly nearly hit pedestrians while swerving.

Data Orbital, a Phoenix based consulting firm, announced today the results of two surveys that asked Mesa residents city wide and specifically residents of Mesa District 3 (the district Mr. Winkle represents) their knowledge of the recent arrest and if the DUI was merit enough for him to be removed or asked to resign by the Mesa City Council.
The poll results, that were taken city wide and specifically in his home district Mesa 3, showed that 70% of people favored his removal/resignation while only 14% thought he should not be removed. Also, a little more than 40% of people were aware that this was his second DUI arrest.

Tyler Montague, President of Public Integrity Alliance had this to say:  “Councilmember Ryan Winkle has argued that he should remain in office in spite of his behavior because ‘his district wants him there’ because they elected him. Clearly that’s no longer the case. Integrity matters, and Winkle has lost the mandate to lead and should listen to the vast majority of Mesa residents who want him to resign.”

 

Data Orbital Poll

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “It is clear that Mesa voters overwhelmingly want Mr. Winkle to step aside and allow the city to move forward in the process. While it is true that people deserve forgiveness, our elected officials are held to a higher standard and that is a standard Council member Winkle has now broken twice.”###

Survey One: IVR poll of 800 registered voters in the city of Mesa has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from automated landline surveys over three days. City Wide Toplines.

Survey Two: Live & IVR mix poll of 300 registered voters in Mesa City Council District 3 has a margin of error at plus or minus 5.7 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from live cell phone and automated land line surveys over three days. Mesa District 3 Toplines.

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Poll: Nearly Half of Voters Say Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle Should Stay

OH Predictive

Over half aware of DUI citation, primarily through mass media

Phoenix, AZ (June 22, 2017) –  Arizona is never short of hot political issues or debates, and typically a City Council position gets little to no attention – that is until now. There have been ongoing conversations about whether Mesa City Councilman Ryan Winkle, District 3 should resign from office or remain in his position, following his May arrest on suspicion of DUI. We asked the voters of his district their opinions, and if they believe the Councilman of six months should resign or stay.

Nationally recognized polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, conducted a survey comprised of 304 currently registered Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters registered in Mesa’s 3rd City Council District. The survey was conducted from June 8th to June 19th, with 49% of the sample contacted on their cellular phones, and 51% of the voters reached via landlines.

Among the results:

Ryan Winkle Poll

“While over half of Councilman Winkle’s constituents have heard of his recent DUI citation, he still holds a 2 to 1 positive favorability number to remain in his council seat,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Nearly half of those polled think the Councilman should remain in office, approximately one-third of his constituents believe he should resign, and 17% did not indicate an opinion either way.”

Noble added, “In the eyes of the voter, Winkle is down, but definitely not out.”

Methodology: This live and automated caller survey was conducted by Phoenix based-OH Predictive Insights from June 8th to June 19th, 2017, from an active registered voter sample in Mesa City Council District 3.  The sample size was 304 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/-5.61%.  49% of surveys were conducted on cell phones and 51% via land lines.

View the press release online.

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Poll: Majority of Arizona Voters Don’t Need a Wall with Mexico

Only two-thirds of Republicans support;  conversely two-thirds of Independents oppose

Phoenix, AZ (May 4, 2017) –  Arizona is the catalyst for then candidate-now-President Donald Trump where he planted the flag opposing illegal immigration and building a wall along the U.S./Mexico border. We commissioned a poll with multiple questions and the border wall question was one of them – the results were shocking.

Arizona voters surprisingly don’t find a border wall with Mexico necessary with only 37% in agreement and 62% who disagree. In a survey commissioned by KTAR News with nationally recognized polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, 401 active registered Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona, based on current active voter registration numbers were sampled. Among the results:

“As Arizona’s News Station, we always want to understand how our community feels on issues key to them in the moment”, said VP/Programming Ryan Hatch.  “Polling Arizona voters on current issues like border security helps KTAR News report and talk about the news daily with an informed perspective.”

“The numbers were frankly shocking,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “When you have one-third of Republicans, 70% of Independents and almost all Democrats thinking a wall is not necessary that should raise a red flag.”

Methodology: This live and automated caller survey was conducted by Phoenix based-OH Predictive Insights on May 1st, 2017, from an active Arizona registered voter sample.  The sample size was 401 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/-4.89%.  35% of surveys were conducted on cell phones and 65% via land lines. The party affiliation, geographic, gender and age demographics accurately reflect active registered voters in Arizona in this sample.

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About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 www.OHpartners. com

Poll: Prop 123 Shows Strong Numbers With Early Voting Underway

Predictive Insights

Bi-partisan support for prop 123

PHOENIX (April 27, 2016) — Arizona’s special election for two statewide initiatives including the education bill, Proposition 123, will be voted on May 17th, 2016.

In a survey of 665 likely special election voters, 59.7 percent said they would vote in favor of Prop 123.

Prop 123 – Education Funding
April 25, 2016 Results
Definitely Yes 38.5%
Probably Yes 21.2%
Probably No 9%
Definitely No 24.4%
Unsure/Undecided 6.9%

“Early indicators show strong support for Proposition 123 across all demographics,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights said, “It is surprising to see only 6.9% of likely voters are undecided which tells us voters are keenly aware of the measure.  If you hear someone talking about this next time you are in-line at the grocery store – don’t be surprised.”

Wes Gullett, Partner in OH Predictive Insights and political consultant was impressed that the Yes vote is strong across all demographics and was cautiously positive about the results. “Democrats, Republicans and Independents are all voting yes close to 60%.  However, with ballot measures typically the ‘No’ vote does a better than the polling on election day so the Yes side needs to have a strong turnout of supporters over the next three weeks,” Gullett said.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on April 25th, 2016, from a sample of likely special election voters from across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 May 17th special election in Arizona. The sample size was 665 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of ± 3.8%

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

As seen on AZCentral.com

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez
April 20, 2016

If a vote were taken today, Arizonans could reject an initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana by adults, according to a poll released by the campaign opposing the plan.

The survey shows 43 percent of likely voters support legalizing marijuana for recreational use while 49 percent would vote against it. About 8 percent of likely voters were undecided. The telephone survey has a margin of error of about 4 percent.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy released the poll on the eve of 4/20, a day on which the drug culture celebrates and consumes cannabis.

The Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol is gathering signatures to put an initiative on the November ballot that would allow people age 21 and older to carry up to 1 ounce of marijuana and grow up to 12 plants in a home occupied by at least two people, without obtaining licenses. It would also create a distribution system similar to Colorado’s, where licensed businesses produce and sell marijuana, which would be taxed.

Barrett Marson, spokesman for the legalization campaign, said of the poll results: “We look forward to a vigorous campaign informing voters of the benefits of ending the failed policy of prohibition. By regulating and taxing marijuana, we benefit our schools and keep it out of the hands of teens.”

The poll, released to The Arizona Republic on Tuesday, shows voters could narrowly oppose the measure. According to the survey of 500 likely voters conducted April 11 through April 14:

  • When asked if they would be more or less likely to support the ballot measure if they knew recreational marijuana would be taxed at 15 percent and the funds would go to public health and education, 50 percent said they would be more likely to support the measure, while 29 percent said they would be less likely to support it. Eighteen percent said the tax would not really change their decision, while 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • About 19 percent said they would be more likely to support legalization in Arizona after being told teen use of the drug here is 70 percent higher than the national average. About 53 percent said they would be less likely to vote for the measure, 21 percent said they still held the same view, 6 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • Asked if they knew the measure would allow growth of up to 12 plants in their homes and allow them to smoke in their backyard, 31 percent said they would be more likely to vote for it, 52 percent would be less likely, 13 percent said their opinion remained about the same, 3 percent were undecided and 1 percent refused to answer.

Of those who responded, 39 percent were Republican, 33 percent were Democrat, 28 percent were independent, and 1 percent didn’t know their affiliation. About 36 percent were 65 or older, 21 percent were 55-64 years old, 17 percent were 45-54 years old, 13 percent were 35-44 years old and 13 percent were 18-34 years old.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy argues legalization could upend decades of policies surrounding substance-abuse prevention, law-enforcement and health. They argue legalization could lead to the abuse of marijuana and negatively impact the workplace.

The group’s leaders, Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk and radio host Seth Leibsohn, say legalization could lead to increased incidents of impaired driving and lead to accidental ingestion by youth who may find marijuana-laced cookies and candies enticing without knowing they contain the drug.

“Advocates for recreational marijuana argue that legalization is inevitable, but this poll shows it’s just not true,” Leibsohn said in a statement. “Arizonans are beginning to understand that today’s marijuana is not the marijuana of the past. It’s a great deal more potent — practically a different drug — and is made attractive to youth in seemingly innocuous candies like gummy bears.”

Campaign officials argue prohibition of the drug has been a failure, and it’s in the public’s best interest to try to regulate and tax it.

Taxation of the proposed program would pay the state’s cost of implementing and enforcing the initiative. Forty percent of the taxes on marijuana would be directed to the Department of Education for construction, maintenance and operation costs, including salaries of K-12 teachers. Another 40 percent would be set aside for full-day kindergarten programs. Twenty percent would go to the state Department of Health Services for unspecified uses.

A state Department of Marijuana Licenses and Control would regulate the “cultivation, manufacturing, testing, transportation and sale of marijuana” and would give local governments the authority to regulate and ban marijuana stores. Current medical-marijuana dispensary owners would get first dibs on licenses for the stores.

POLL: The Republican Nominee for AZ01

Poll: Trump Impact On Republican Chances In 2016

MBQF

Trump nomination cuts GOP motivation, and turns many GOP voters against other Republican candidates

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey commissioned by Insight Consulting, an Arizona firm, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and the effect his nomination by the Republican Party would have on voters in Arizona.

The results from the survey shows the results a Trump nomination would have on high efficacy Republican and Independent/PND primary voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates.  We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, who commissioned the poll issued the following statement: “The 2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots.  Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers.  30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates.  We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters.  A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote.  But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated.  So it’s a net loss for Republicans.  Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously.  Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner.  And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker added: “While the Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.43%.

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