Latest Poll Shows Martha McSally Narrowly Leads in US Senate Race

Democratic Surge in Early Ballots has Tightened the Race

PHOENIX (Nov. 5, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has a one-point lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, with 49 percent of the vote. Green candidate Angela Green receives zero percent of the vote, down from one percent since our last poll. Since dropping out, Green no longer has the Election Day Independent voters, who we saw her take more of in a previous OHPI poll(8%).


The survey was conducted November 2 to November 3, 2018 with a sample of 631 respondents qualified as likely voters. All live-callers were used to collect the sample, yielding a +/-3.9% MOE.

“Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends,” said Mike Noble, Chief Pollster and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out out their voters on Election Day.”

Since our last poll, conducted on October 22, the largest change has been the late return of a surge of Democratic ballots in Pima County. This is done by a bloc of Democratic voters who we were unsure would turn out in the general election: Steve Farley Democrats. This group is considered new primary voters who voted for Farley and not David Garcia in the Arizona primary election: OHPI analyzed them in September.

Farley Democrats started returning their ballots en masse within the last two days of early voting, especially standing out in Pima County with a ten-point Democratic advantage of 43 percent. In Maricopa County, the largest county in the state with 60 percent of the electorate, Republicans also have a ten-point lead with 43 percent. This indicates a lagging Hispanic turnout with engaged white Democrats, which is a trend OHPI was looking for and did not see materialize until recently.

The key comes down to Sinema’s voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema’s voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally’s voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County’s voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in the rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats.

A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement. While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them.

Methodology: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline poll. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2, 2018 and November 3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 631 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.9%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

DATA ORBITAL NEW SURVEY: Immigration a Key Issue for Arizona GOP Primary Voters

Phoenix, AZ (June 28, 2018) – Data Orbital has announced additional results from the latest statewide survey of Arizona’s likely GOP primary election voters. The survey focused on what the key issues are for likely voters in statewide races. Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Tuesday, June 19th and ending on Thursday, June 21st.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

These results are broken down by gender and age groupings below with immigration being more important to GOP women.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

Below, we see a comparison of likely voters’ top issue by their favorability towards President Trump.

It is worth noting that this survey started a day prior and concluded a day after President Trump’s most recent executive order concerning family separation at the border.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: “Immigration has long held the position of top issue for GOP primary voters and with all the recent news regarding the border, this cycle is no different. It is interesting to note that women are the driving factor behind these top results with them being 6% more likely to select immigration as number one. It also comes as no surprise that k-12 education is number one with GOP voters that are 18-34, highlighting the disparity between them and their older 55 and over counterparts who overwhelmingly chose immigration.

This poll of 550 likely GOP primary voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.17%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over three days from June 19th-21st. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here.

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience.  Through combine data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates.

Poll: Support For Ducey’s Teacher Raise Plan Holding Steady

Data Orbital

By Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) As a follow up to our poll released this past Tuesday, April 17th, and with a possible teacher strike beginning tomorrow, it is clear that Arizona voters are still supportive of the plan put forward by Governor Ducey. These same voters have also largely heard of and are positive towards the Red for Ed campaign.

Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Wednesday, April 18th and ending on Saturday, April 21st, as voters have been learning more details around the Governor’s plan to increase teacher pay by 20%.  Our live caller poll found that a vast majority of Arizona voters continue to approve of the Governor’s plan.  In addition, almost 50% of voters surveyed also have a positive opinion of the Red for Ed campaign.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers?

The support for the plan continues to be consistent along party lines.  Democrats are still most likely to favor the Governor’s plan, coming in at nearly 75%.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Party Registration

The poll found virtually no difference between males and females in their approval of Governor Ducey’s plan.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Gender

Support is also fairly consistent across age demographics with the highest support coming from those between 18 and 34 years of age.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Age

Support is highest among those who have voted in at least 3 out of the last 4 general elections and lowest among those who have no previous history of voting in general elections (they made up only 3% of the sample).

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Voting History

As mentioned above, the Red for Ed movement is fairly well known with nearly 60% of voters familiar with it and only 29% certain they hadn’t heard of it.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United?

It is not surprising that Democrats are more likely to have had positive exposure to the Red for Ed movement while Republicans have the highest negative sentiment towards it. As was mentioned above, most samples were collected prior to Red for Ed announcing their strike.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Party Registration

Women are also more likely to have a positive opinion while men are more likely to be negative in their opinion.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Gender

There also is a clear age correlation towards the overall exposure to Red for Ed. Older voters who don’t have children in K-12 are much more likely to be unfamiliar with it while younger voters with school age children have a higher positive exposure.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Age

Demographics

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Gender and Age
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Party Affiliation and Roll-Up
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Ethnicity and General Vote History

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: “It has been nearly a week and a half since the Governor announced his teacher pay raise plan and support has largely held steady with likely voters. These same voters tend to have positive views of Red for Ed, with support predominantly along partisan lines.”

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This poll of 700 likely general election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 50% of the results from land lines and 50% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.64%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over four days from April 18th-21st. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here.  To receive regular blog updates, subscribe here.

POLL: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

 

OH Predictive

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll conducted via IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the GOP Special Election in this survey with a +/-4.89% MOE.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

Here is how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since our last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so OHPI ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.
Here is the State of the Race in AZ-08 summarized in 40 Seconds

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

Poll: Majority of Americans Oppose Reducing Incentives for Renewable Energy

OH Predictive

56.8% oppose GOP plan to cut and eliminate incentives for wind and solar

Nationwide Generic Congressional Ballot Test: Democrats lead by 9.7 percent

PHOENIX (December 18, 2017) – Voters across the country oppose the GOP’s plan to gut incentives for wind and solar energy production, according to a new nationwide poll.

The national, online poll of 1,004 people commissioned by ConservAmerica and conducted by OH Predictive Insights from December 13 -16 found 60 percent of voters oppose cutting incentives for renewable energy. The poll also found 57 percent of voters said incentives for renewable energy should be increased. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.09%.

“The GOP approaches to wind and solar power are overwhelmingly opposed by voters across the U.S.,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.

While the GOP plan rolls back production tax incentives for wind and solar; and reduces the viability of the financing tool for future projects, the voting public overwhelmingly disagrees, with 60.3% opposing and 22.7% supporting the cuts.

“Voters overwhelmingly agree: Instead of reducing incentives for clean energy, Congress should be looking at ways to make investing in renewable energy cheaper,” Noble said. “If we can afford tax cuts for those who own private jets, surely we can keep incentives for clean energy.”

And our generic ballot question, asking voters:

“If the elections for the U.S. Congress were being held today, are you more likely to vote for the Republican party’s candidate or the Democratic party’s candidate?”

Our poll found that 37.8% would support the Republican candidate, while 47.5% would support the Democratic candidate which gives the Democrats a +9.7% advantage for the Generic Congressional Ballot Test heading into 2018. Those results are within the margin of error of the current Real Clear Politics average for that question. In the battle for the votes of younger voters, 18-29, the GOP is being hammered by 18.5 points, with only 32.9% of younger voters opting for the GOP versus 51.4% favoring the Democratic candidate.

“As of today, having an ‘R’ next to your name heading to the 2018 ballot box puts you at a 10-point disadvantage,” Noble said. “Democrats are winning the battle for likely voters under the age of 30 by almost a 20-point margin.”

The GOP tax plan to cut incentives for wind and solar does seem to fit the voters’ perception of the parties. We asked:

“When it comes to advancing the use of renewable energy, would you say Republicans or Democrats are more pro-active on the issue?”

Respondents to our poll said that Democrats are more pro-active on the issue by a staggering 34.4-point margin.

Another interesting takeaway were their views on what causes climate change: 58.8% said the world’s climate is changing mostly because of human activity, 25.6% said the world’s climate is changing mostly because of natural causes, and 6.5% said the world’s climate is not changing. Independents and Democrats overwhelmingly believe climate change is caused by human activity, however, Republicans were split on the issue with 41.5% believe human activity is responsible and 38.9% is due to natural causes.

“Stunts like throwing snowballs on the Senate floor does not match current voter sentiment in the least bit,” said Noble. “Voters want a government to respond to climate change not engage in political theater.”

Methodology: This nationwide online survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 13 – 16th, 2017, from a likely 2018 voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, age, and weighted for ethnicity. The margin of error is ± 3.09%.

Click here to see poll report and sample summary

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, research, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and corporate clients. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, research and public affairs areas, OH Predictive Insights helps clients unlock the insights that improve their clients and key stakeholders marketing and positioning efforts. For more information, please visit our website at www.OHpredictive.com

POLL: 61.8% of Arizona Voters Believe Confederate Capitol Mall Monument Should Be Kept

High Ground

Survey reveals the complexities of navigating this controversial issue as independent and unaffiliated voters lean towards keeping monument

PHOENIX (August 24, 2017) — A statewide survey of likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters revealed that nearly 62% of voters believe that the memorial to Confederate Soldiers on the Arizona Capitol Mall should be kept. The results are derived from the same survey that showed President Trump with a 41.8% approval rating and 56.8% opposition to a pardon of Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Q.        In the past week, there has been a national discussion over whether or not statues honoring members of the Confederate Army should be removed from public spaces. Currently, there is a memorial to Confederate soldiers at the Capitol Mall, which is on public land across from the Arizona State Capitol in Phoenix. Do you think this specific memorial should be kept in its current location or removed?

51.5%  Definitely Kept
10.3%  Probably Kept
6.0%    Probably Removed
26.3%  Definitely Removed
6.0%    Don’t Know, Refused

AZ Confederate Monument“These results show that this debate is not simply a partisan issue. More than 61% of independent voters and 60% of unaffiliated voters believe that the memorial should be kept.  Bear in mind, these are the same groups that currently have lower than 33% approval of the President,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll. “It is clear that this issue is complicated and deeply personal.  As the political parties continue to appeal to smaller and smaller audiences and cater to identity politics, they will find it increasingly difficult to address complex issues.  The challenge that the survey reveals is that there are mixed results with an ‘either/or’ approach.”

The survey specifically asked about the Confederate monument that currently stands on the mall in front of the Arizona State Capitol.  It did not address any of the other Confederate monuments or freeway names throughout the state.

“Instead of simply using this issue as a partisan wedge to cudgel opponents with or advance an ideological agenda, we need our leaders to lead a constructive dialogue.  Arizona is a unique state with an independent spirit and has shown time and again that it is up to the challenge to face and have thoughtful discourse on tough issues,” Coughlin concluded.

As I have said before, we must find our way back to discussing, learning, and growing from meaningful discussions about our collective past. Taking a hard and fast approach to this issue may not have the desired results for those seeking to build a General Election coalition.  It is my hope that these results will be viewed as a call to bring people together to have a thoughtful dialogue.”

The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

Q.            In the past week, there has been a national discussion over whether or not statues honoring members of the Confederate Army should be removed from public spaces. Currently, there is a memorial to Confederate soldiers at the Capitol Mall, which is on public land across from the Arizona State Capitol in Phoenix. Do you think this specific memorial should be kept in its current location or removed?

51.5%  Definitely Kept
10.3%  Probably Kept
6.0%    Probably Removed
26.3%  Definitely Removed
6.0%    Don’t Know, Refused

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Survey Demographics

Age Group:

10.8%    20 to 29
15.3%    30 to 39
19.7%    40 to 49
29.5%    50 to 64
24.7%    65 Plus

Sex:

48.0%    Male
52.0%    Female

Party:

44.2%    Republican
31.8%    Democrat
15.0%    PND
9.0%      Independent/Other

Congressional District:

11.0%    CD1
14.3%    CD2
7.0%      CD3
11.0%    CD4
12.3%    CD5
13.7%    CD6
6.0%      CD7
13.0%    CD8
11.7%    CD9

View HighGround’s post HERE.

Poll: Jeff Flake in Double Jeopardy

High Ground

US Senator Jeff Flake in Double Electoral Jeopardy Twelve Months Away from Primary Election

Republican Party Divided – Provides Opening for Democrats

PHOENIX (August 22, 2017) — A statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake twelve points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%.  The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.

Jeff Flake

Senator Jeff Flake

“While Election Day may still be more than a year away, Senator Jeff Flake’s campaign has a lot of work to do to persuade Republican primary voters that his form of principled Republican conservatism can trump the nativist populism that is fueling Republican voters’ antipathy towards Washington insiders.  These same Republicans still give the President a 74% approval rating in Arizona,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll.

“The good news for Senator Flake’s campaign is that the election is still a year away and his campaign has the financial support to more clearly articulate his own views and define his opponent’s positions.  Additionally, efforts to pass tax reform, infrastructure investment and other major policy initiatives could substantially change the electoral environment in Arizona,” said Coughlin.

The survey showed that Congresswoman Sinema is not known by 45% of the electorate in Arizona while Ward was beaten by nearly 100,000 votes in her primary election against Senator John McCain in 2016.

Coughlin continued, “Kelli Ward may not be well-known in light of her campaign against Senator McCain in 2016.  But even tacit support from the President, with subsequent staffing and financial resources, would be a huge boost for her chances.”

Additionally, General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender.

“The data clearly shows that a contentious primary fight would certainly strengthen the chances of the Democrats to pick up the seat in November of next year.  There is an opportunity for Congresswoman Sinema to take advantage of the uncertainty on the Republican side by jumping into the Senate race,” Coughlin remarked. “The question for the General Election comes down to if Congresswoman Sinema will be able to define herself first to an electorate that is largely unfamiliar with her, or if Republican third-party groups can define her in ways unacceptable to Arizona’s General Electorate.”

The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State.

Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.

Coughlin stated, “It may look dire now, but we must remember a poll is a snapshot in time.”

“Even today, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) began to remind voters that Kelli Ward is not a serious thinker when it comes to the issues confronting our country.  I would expect third-party groups like the SLF and dark money groups like Americans for Prosperity and Club for Growth to come to the Senator’s aid and tout his conservative credentials,” concluded Coughlin. “The Senator is in for the fight of his life and things will only get more difficult if the President Trump continues to pick intraparty fights.”

The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?
[N = 273]

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Kelli Ward or Kyrsten Sinema?

30.5%  Kelli Ward
31.8%  Kyrsten Sinema
37.8%  Don’t know, Refused

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Survey Demographics

Age Group:

10.8%    20 to 29
15.3%    30 to 39
19.7%    40 to 49
29.5%    50 to 64
24.7%    65 Plus

Sex:

48.0%    Male
52.0%    Female

Party:

44.2%    Republican
31.8%    Democrat
15.0%    PND
9.0%      Independent/Other

Congressional District:

11.0%    CD1
14.3%    CD2
7.0%      CD3
11.0%    CD4
12.3%    CD5
13.7%    CD6
6.0%      CD7
13.0%    CD8
11.7%    CD9

President Trump Challenges Millennial’s for Twitter Crown

OH Predictive

Almost Two Thirds of Arizona Voters Believe Trump Tweets Too Much

Phoenix, AZ (August 4, 2017) –  As social media use continues to grow, OH Predictive Insights wanted to learn more on how Arizona voters viewed President Trump’s tweeting frequency and to gather tangible data on the overall perception behind his use of Twitter.  It is safe to say that by now in the era of Trump you are aware of his preferred social media platform Twitter.

Over 700 active registered, Arizona Democratic, Republican, Independent and non-declared voters participated in this survey, which were based on current active voter registration numbers. The results are as followed:

The question was stated, “of these 4 types of people, who would you say tweets the most in your opinion?”

“It should raise some red flags when the President is running second behind millennials when it comes to their tweeting frequency,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.

OH Predictive Insights also tested Trump’s tweeting frequency. The question was stated, “how would you rate President Trump when it comes to the frequency of his tweeting?”

“If 2 out of every 3 people you meet say you should tone it down – you may want to use Twitter more strategically,” said Noble. “Especially, when 42% of your own political party believes you that are overdoing it.”

“Arizona voters are even split down partisan lines on President Trumps tweets. Democrats and Independents clearly want the President to rest his fingers while only a plurality of Republicans say ‘enough with the tweets’,” said Wes Gullett, partner at OH Predictive Insights and GOP Strategist.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on July 26th, 2017, from an active Arizona registered voter sample. The sample size was 700 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.7%

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers.

New Poll: Mesa Residents Overwhelmingly Want Council Member To Resign After Second DUI Charge

Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) – The Public Integrity Alliance recently commissioned two polls, both conducted by Data Orbital that shows Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle largely favored to resign after second super extreme DUI arrest. Councilman Winkle, in his first time on the Mesa City Council, has faced recent scrutiny after an arrest in Tempe where he allegedly nearly hit pedestrians while swerving.

Data Orbital, a Phoenix based consulting firm, announced today the results of two surveys that asked Mesa residents city wide and specifically residents of Mesa District 3 (the district Mr. Winkle represents) their knowledge of the recent arrest and if the DUI was merit enough for him to be removed or asked to resign by the Mesa City Council.
The poll results, that were taken city wide and specifically in his home district Mesa 3, showed that 70% of people favored his removal/resignation while only 14% thought he should not be removed. Also, a little more than 40% of people were aware that this was his second DUI arrest.

Tyler Montague, President of Public Integrity Alliance had this to say:  “Councilmember Ryan Winkle has argued that he should remain in office in spite of his behavior because ‘his district wants him there’ because they elected him. Clearly that’s no longer the case. Integrity matters, and Winkle has lost the mandate to lead and should listen to the vast majority of Mesa residents who want him to resign.”

 

Data Orbital Poll

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “It is clear that Mesa voters overwhelmingly want Mr. Winkle to step aside and allow the city to move forward in the process. While it is true that people deserve forgiveness, our elected officials are held to a higher standard and that is a standard Council member Winkle has now broken twice.”###

Survey One: IVR poll of 800 registered voters in the city of Mesa has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from automated landline surveys over three days. City Wide Toplines.

Survey Two: Live & IVR mix poll of 300 registered voters in Mesa City Council District 3 has a margin of error at plus or minus 5.7 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from live cell phone and automated land line surveys over three days. Mesa District 3 Toplines.

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Poll: Nearly Half of Voters Say Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle Should Stay

OH Predictive

Over half aware of DUI citation, primarily through mass media

Phoenix, AZ (June 22, 2017) –  Arizona is never short of hot political issues or debates, and typically a City Council position gets little to no attention – that is until now. There have been ongoing conversations about whether Mesa City Councilman Ryan Winkle, District 3 should resign from office or remain in his position, following his May arrest on suspicion of DUI. We asked the voters of his district their opinions, and if they believe the Councilman of six months should resign or stay.

Nationally recognized polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, conducted a survey comprised of 304 currently registered Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters registered in Mesa’s 3rd City Council District. The survey was conducted from June 8th to June 19th, with 49% of the sample contacted on their cellular phones, and 51% of the voters reached via landlines.

Among the results:

Ryan Winkle Poll

“While over half of Councilman Winkle’s constituents have heard of his recent DUI citation, he still holds a 2 to 1 positive favorability number to remain in his council seat,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Nearly half of those polled think the Councilman should remain in office, approximately one-third of his constituents believe he should resign, and 17% did not indicate an opinion either way.”

Noble added, “In the eyes of the voter, Winkle is down, but definitely not out.”

Methodology: This live and automated caller survey was conducted by Phoenix based-OH Predictive Insights from June 8th to June 19th, 2017, from an active registered voter sample in Mesa City Council District 3.  The sample size was 304 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/-5.61%.  49% of surveys were conducted on cell phones and 51% via land lines.

View the press release online.

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