POLL: Arpaio Shakes Up AZ Senate Race

McSally leapfrogs Ward for the lead, Arpaio close second

Steve Bannon’s endorsement is the kiss of death for Kelli Ward

PHOENIX (January 10, 2018) – What happens when America’s former Toughest Sheriff joins the fray for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona? The race for the GOP nomination gets thrown into disarray.

A new poll conducted of 504 registered voters was conducted Tuesday by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) shows U.S. Rep Martha McSally of Tucson is the new leader with 31 percent support. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who announced this week his intention to seek the nomination, follows closely at 29 percent. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward now trails with 25 percent.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15-Phoenix (OHPI/ABC-PHOENIX) teamed up to find out how the entrance of Arpaio changes the dynamics of the Senate election contest.

OHPI conducted an IVR survey of 504 likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared statewide here in Arizona. The sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the 2018 GOP Primary Election in this survey with a +/-4.36% margin of error.

“Sheriff Joe makes a splash wherever he goes and his surprise entrance into the U.S. Senate race shines a new light on this important race to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.. “Everyone knows Joe. He has near-unanimous name recognition. But it doesn’t mean he is universally loved. It will be a challenge convincing voters he’s a new Joe.”

We first looked at where the candidates stack up in regards to their name ID, fav/unfav and net positive numbers.

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, of Tucson, leads the pack, however, all three are within the margin of error. She also is the least damaged of the group given she only has a 17% total unfavorable number, although, a third of voters don’t know who she is. Arpaio clocked in at an astounding 97% name ID and by almost a 2-1 margin he holds a positive view from likely GOP primary voters. A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so we ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

 

Now, let’s see how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

Back in November, OH Predictive Insights polled the horse race with just McSally and Ward.  Ward was in first place with 42% and McSally trailed by 8 points at 34% with 24% undecided. With Arpaio entering the race McSally goes from second to first and Ward goes from first to last place with only 15% of voters remaining undecided.

Where did the votes go? McSally only dropped 3 points from the previous poll, which is within the margin of error. Arpaio’s entrance did not affect her. Ward on the other hand lost 17 points, which migrated over to Arpaio. Arpaio also pulled 9points of the undecideds off the board, which now leaves just 15% of voter’s undecided in this contest.

Now, we will take a look at how a Trump, Bannon or McConnell endorsement would impact GOP voters for this race.

A Trump endorsement makes a huge difference, with 73% of voters saying his endorsement is a significant influencer in their decision. And by more than 2-1, Trump moved voters in a positive direction. McConnell only moves 57% although in the wrong direction by 8 points.  Steve Bannon’s endorsement on the other hand moves 70% of voters and that direction is straight into the ground.

 

Finally, we wanted to try the horse race question again, but this time inject the primary backers of each candidate. Ward has been endorsed by Bannon.  Trump pardoned Arpaio and he was his first major endorsement in the GOP presidential primary. McSally is one of Mitch McConnell’s top recruits for Senate.

“Joe Arpaio’s decision to enter the senate race spells doom for the wobbly Ward campaign,” Noble said. “Ward’s support seemed to be a half mile wide and just a half inch deep. One day of Joe Arpaio in the race ruins more than a year of work Ward has done to capture the GOP nomination. Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are headed for a Tombstone-style showdown in August with the winner having to take on a rested and loaded for bear Kyrsten Sinema.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on January 9th, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, and gender, however, age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to the survey medium. The margin of error is of ± 4.36%.  Note: Average age of those who voted a Republican ballot in the 2014 election in Arizona was 65.

Obamacare – The Audacity of Nope

Obamacare Affordable Care Act

Obamacare

 

by Manny Fernandez – It has cost the American taxpayer $634 million to launch the Obamacare web site. I am sorry, but that as a reckless and misleading statement. The truth of the matter is that it has cost the American taxpayer $634 million to launch the Obamacare WEBSITE. The website plagued with major glitches has cost the American taxpayer six times as much as the bid from the private contractor bid for the contract to create the website.

Now, let me ask you something. How come Mark Zuckerberg can make billions launching a website that has hundreds of millions of subscribers without charging them a cent, but the federal government is 600 PERCENT OVER BUDGET launching the portal that is supposed to take Americans that do not have health insurance or are losing their health insurance because their employers have dropped insurance coverage in response to Obamacare? That is correct. The cost to date for a website that does not work is $540 MILLION MORE than the contractor agreed the website would cost.

If you think about it, the Obamacare website is the portal or front porch for Obamacare. So, let’s say you were having a contractor build a $250,000 home for you. Let’s assume that the soft cost line item for the plans was $5,000. Let’s say that the hard cost line items for the front door and the porch you decided would make a nice feature for the home totaled $10,000. What would you do if the contractor who was building the house for you came back to you and said that those line items — which your construction contract provides will cost $15,000 — will cost $90,000 instead. Do you still think your contractor is going to bring the job in on budget?

I think the GOP needs to go all in. I would rather bet the farm on a bold new strategy and give the country an opportunity to recover if a Obama does not play ball than allow Obamacare, as presently enacted, to bankrupt the treasury. John Boehner and Mitch McConnell should agree to end the shutdown and draft a clean continuing resolution that will raise the debt ceiling for six months. They should publicly lobby for the roll-out of Obamacare to be delayed until all of the bugs are fixed. They should also lobby for the assembly of a non-partisan blue ribbon panel of business people and computer nerds who will work together to make recommendations on how to fix Obamacare so that the program:

  1. Provides affordable healthcare for Americans who do not have and cannot currently get healthcare insurance;
  2. Incentivizes Americans to buy healthcare and incentivizes businesses to offer healthcare to their employees; and
  3. Does not create an incentive for businesses to fire employees, cut back their hours or stop hiring them.

I firmly believe that American business people have the ingenuity to make recommendations that will accomplish the laudable goal of providing affordable healthcare for those who cannot currently obtain it without creating a healthcare brothel where the government is the pimp, insurance companies are the hookers and the American taxpayer is getting royally screwed. Instead of using all of the obvious problems with the ACA to make the President look bad, John Boehner should ask for one concession to the end of the shutdown. He should ask for the President to go on national television and promise the American people that he is going to work with Republicans and Democrats to fix the law and agree that the discussions of the blue ribbon panel will be televised. In turn, Boehner and McConnell should promise the American people that they will stand up to both the left and the right in order to do whatever is necessary to fix the glitches in the law.

Like it or lump it, Obamacare is the law of the land. All we can do in a divided government is work together to fix it. The notion that a political party completely devoid of leadership like the GOP — or where what passes for leadership is the Audacity of Nope — is going to be able to overturn a piece of legislation that the President regards as the signature achievement of his administration without a majority in the Senate, absolutely no chance of acquiring veto proof majorities in Congress in 2014, no currently viable Presidential candidate for 2016 and dwindling support for the intransigent ideologues it sent to Congress in 2010 and 2012 is just plain silly. On the other hand, if the GOP demonstrates a willingness to work with the President to fix Obamacare, it will acquire the credibility it needs in order to convince the American public that there is more to this once Grand Old Party than the Audacity of Nope.

Editor’s Note: reposted with permission from Cafe Con Leche Republicans – original link.

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Manny Fernandez is the Florida Director for Cafe Con Leche Republicans