POLL: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

 

OH Predictive

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll conducted via IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the GOP Special Election in this survey with a +/-4.89% MOE.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

Here is how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since our last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so OHPI ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.
Here is the State of the Race in AZ-08 summarized in 40 Seconds

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

POLL: Sheriff Paul Babeu Early Favorite in AZ01 Congressional Race

MBQF

Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claims a strong lead among Republicans in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District according to a poll conducted by consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 687 likely Republican primary voters, 17.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. Former State House Speaker Andy Tobin trails Babeu with 10.1% followed by businessman Gary Kiehne at 7.5%.

With no announced Republican candidate in the race, 64.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, regularly on national news and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

“Less than a year ago Tobin and Kiehne spent over two million dollars and campaigned aggressively in CD-1 and if you combine their numbers they would merely tie Sheriff Paul Babeu.” Noble added.

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2016 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. One-fourth of voters (25.4%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 25.7% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues that would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.3%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 10.4% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 5.9% of respondents. And 8.0% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue that would determine their vote next year. Just 11.9% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on May 26, 2015, from a sample of likely Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 687 completed surveys, with a MoE of +- 3.71

MBQF Launches Public Opinion Survey Service – Electric Deregulation Top Issue for Maiden Release

MBQF

Public Policy and Public Education Objective of Service

(Scottsdale, AZ) — MBQF Consulting founder and CEO Mike Noble today announced his objective to provide a quarterly service to inform and enlighten Arizonans on the public policy issues being debated in Arizona and around the Nation. Noble, who is not representing or retained by either side of Arizona’s Electric Deregulation debate being considered by the Arizona Corporation Commission, indicated that future topics would concern issues being considered by the Arizona legislature, the Congress of the United States, as well as multiple ballot initiatives.

“Arizona voters are some of the most engaged in the nation,” Noble said. “By helping identify voters public policy attitudes to decision makers and key stakeholders, we are ensuring their concerns are more clearly understood. It helps enhance the quality of discourse in our state and brings more people to the table.”

MBQF surveyed 516 high efficacy Arizona voters between August 5th and 7th, 2013. Voters were given a summary explanation of the deregulation issue, and then asked whether they supported, opposed or were undecided about electric deregulation. Issue explanations were randomized to present the question in a different order to each half of respondents.

Among Arizona high efficacy voters, 32% of respondents say they support deregulation, 41% say they oppose it, and 27% remain undecided. Republicans are split nearly evenly, with 35% supporting deregulation to 38% who oppose it, and 27% still undecided. Just 26% of Democrats support deregulation, while 45% oppose and 28% remain undecided.   Independent voters showed 34% support, 42% oppose and 24% remain undecided.

“A lesson we take from this is that no side in this debate has really gained any huge dominance over the other,” said Noble. “As is so frequently the case, influence rests with the undecided voters, and that puts all the more pressure on the companies and the stakeholders in this debate to develop new and more convincing arguments to reach Arizona citizens.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble at the number above. Included in this survey were 516 autodial responses with rotating samples to ensure issue fairness. The Margin of Error for this survey is +/-4.3% at the 95% confidence level.