POLL: Donald Trump on Track to win Arizona

MBQF

Trump and Cruz supporters bullish on the future of the party

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

PPPPoll

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.57%.

POLL: Maricopa County Voters Say Raise Age to 21 to Buy Tobacco, Keep Coyotes in Glendale

MBQF
MarsonMedia

Poll also shows voters want Arizona Coyotes to stay in Glendale

(Phoenix, AZ) — Only adults 21 and over should be able to buy tobacco products, according to a new poll of Maricopa County voters.

Of the 584 respondents to a poll conducted Dec. 29 by MBQF Consulting and Marson Media, 72 percent said they support increasing the age to buy tobacco from 18 to 21. Just 28 percent oppose the move.

The poll also found Maricopa County voters prefer the Arizona Coyotes remain in Glendale, 55-45. And finally, Maricopa County approve of Indian tribes opening Las Vegas-style casinos off traditional reservation land by a margin of 45-39.

“It is clear among all political stripes that voters want to increase the legal age to buy tobacco to 21,” said Barrett Marson, CEO of Marson Media. “As cities in Maricopa County consider these proposals, they can move forward knowing voters support the move.”

Mike Noble Added, “What was interesting was that support to increase the legal age was basically the same between Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters.”

Despite spotty attendance performance throughout its years in Glendale, voters don’t support moving the Arizona Coyotes to a downtown Phoenix or East Valley location, the poll found. The team has said it will explore a move to a new arena downtown or could build an arena on the Salt River Pima Indian Community near Scottsdale.

“The Coyotes are locked in a battle with Glendale but voters actually prefer the team stays in the Gila River Arena,” said Mike Noble, CEO of MBQF Consulting.

As for Indian gaming, county voters appear OK with tribes opening casinos off of traditional reservation land. The Tohono O’odham recently opened a casino near Glendale though it lacks table games like blackjack that are at other casinos.

“Voters don’t mind Indian casinos in the metropolitan area even if they are operated by tribes far away,” Marson said.

In the automated telephonic non-partisan survey of 584 high efficacy voters, conducted on December 29, the survey calculates a 4.06% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points.

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble or Barrett Marson.

MBQF Poll: Trump De-Throned In Arizona

Dr. Ben Carson Takes the Lead in Arizona

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 1,057 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on October 29, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.01% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 10 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP Presidential Primary 2016
October 29, 2015 Results
Ben Carson
25.5%
Donald Trump
24.8%
Ted Cruz
15.2%
Marco Rubio
14.8%
Jeb Bush
6.8%
Carly Fiorina
3.5%
John Kasich
3.1%
Chris Christie
2.6%
Mike Huckabee
1.4%
Rand Paul
0.8%
Unsure/Undecided
1.4%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “Roughly 80% of the electorate is starting to settle on four candidates.  Carson is now slightly ahead of Trump in the overall horse race.  Senator Cruz saw the biggest jump in support, which is likely based on his recent debate performance.  The anti-establishment streak in this years Republican electorate is still running strong.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.01%.

MBQF Poll: Joe Arpaio Has 50/50 Chance Of Re-Election

Also, Tested was School Bonds, Pot Convention and Education Tax

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs and consulting firm, announced results of a recent survey dealing with the nationally known, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who could be facing his toughest re-election battle yet.  We also looked at several other current issues in Arizona, primarily within Maricopa County.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 559 high efficacy voters in Maricopa County, conducted on October 19, 2015, the survey calculates a 4.14% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The survey asked several questions of voters.  The first was a basic re-elect question regarding Sheriff Joe Arpaio, “Looking ahead to next year’s election for Maricopa County Sheriff, do you think that Joe Arpaio should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to give someone else a chance?”

Arpaio Re-Elect Question
Results
Should be re-elected
50.45%
Give someone else a chance
49.55%

Party Breakdown

Republicans
Democrats
Independents/PND
Should be re-elected
53%
48%
49%
Give someone else a chance
47%
52%
51%

The second question was phrased, “Recently, the Republican Party of Maricopa County has decided to oppose ALL 28 school district overrides and bond ballot initiatives come this November.  Arizona is one of the lowest ranked states in the United States when it comes to education.  Would you consider the Republican Party of Maricopa Counties stance on these bonds as obstructionist or as fiscal prudence?”

County GOP-No on all Education
Results
Obstructionist
41.50%
Fiscal prudence
39.36%
No opinion
19.14%

The third question was phrased, “Given what you know about Arizona’s education system, would you be willing to pay slightly more generally in taxes to invest in Arizona’s Education System?”

Invest in Education System
Results
Yes
46.33%
No
39.18%
Unsure
14.49%

The fourth question was phrased, “The Phoenix Convention center will be hosting the “Southwest Cannabis Conference & Expo” at the end of this month.  Do you think that is a good idea or bad idea to host this event?”

Pot Expo – Good/Bad?
Results
Good idea to host event
36.31%
Bad idea to host event
29.52%
No opinion
34.17%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement:

“With Maricopa County voters split on whether America’s Toughest Sheriff deserves another four years, the data shows Sheriff Joe will have his toughest campaign ever.  Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are near evenly split.  In addition, a small plurality of county voters say they are open to paying more for education.  With most eyes focused on the Presidential election next November, Arizona voters have some big choices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.14%.

POLL: Donald Trump Defies Political Gravity In Arizona

Republicans Jazzed About Tomorrow’s Debate

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America participating in tomorrows live televised CNN debate.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 643 high efficacy primary Republican voters, conducted on September 12, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.86% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 11 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY 2016  –  September 12, 2015
Donald Trump – 29.9%
Ben Carson – 21.3%
Jeb Bush – 10.9%
Carly Fiorina – 9.3%
Ted Cruz – 6.2%
Marco Rubio – 3.9%
John Kasich – 2.8%
Scott Walker – 2.5%
Chris Christie – 2.2%
Mike Huckabee – 1.6%
Rand Paul – 1.1%
Unsure/Undecided – 8.4%

MBQF principle Michael Noble, commented on the electorate and the parties, “It appears the conventional wisdom of the DC insiders has not found a home with any of the top candidates because the electorate ain’t buying the rhetoric.  Nobody has flinched as political scare tactics and beltway bravado, lose ground to plain speak.”

“This seems to be a case where maybe the parties ought to take a page from president Reagan when asked why he left the Democratic Party, — he mused that he ‘didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me….’ — there is something Republicans might heed from that comment and this recent polling.” Noble said.

As 82.4% of Republicans surveyed indicate they will be tuning in, it is clear voters will be watching closely.  Questions arise about the relevance of obsolete status quo party politics as emerging non-politicians take center stage.

Noble added, “Donald Trump still leads the field by a comfortable margin and his overall favorability is 49.2% — but he needs to watch his negatives as well, it’s not all champagne, roses and doughnuts.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.86%.

POLL: Sheriff Paul Babeu Early Favorite in AZ01 Congressional Race

MBQF

Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claims a strong lead among Republicans in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District according to a poll conducted by consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 687 likely Republican primary voters, 17.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. Former State House Speaker Andy Tobin trails Babeu with 10.1% followed by businessman Gary Kiehne at 7.5%.

With no announced Republican candidate in the race, 64.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, regularly on national news and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

“Less than a year ago Tobin and Kiehne spent over two million dollars and campaigned aggressively in CD-1 and if you combine their numbers they would merely tie Sheriff Paul Babeu.” Noble added.

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2016 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. One-fourth of voters (25.4%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 25.7% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues that would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.3%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 10.4% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 5.9% of respondents. And 8.0% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue that would determine their vote next year. Just 11.9% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on May 26, 2015, from a sample of likely Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 687 completed surveys, with a MoE of +- 3.71

MBQF Launches Public Opinion Survey Service – Electric Deregulation Top Issue for Maiden Release

MBQF

Public Policy and Public Education Objective of Service

(Scottsdale, AZ) — MBQF Consulting founder and CEO Mike Noble today announced his objective to provide a quarterly service to inform and enlighten Arizonans on the public policy issues being debated in Arizona and around the Nation. Noble, who is not representing or retained by either side of Arizona’s Electric Deregulation debate being considered by the Arizona Corporation Commission, indicated that future topics would concern issues being considered by the Arizona legislature, the Congress of the United States, as well as multiple ballot initiatives.

“Arizona voters are some of the most engaged in the nation,” Noble said. “By helping identify voters public policy attitudes to decision makers and key stakeholders, we are ensuring their concerns are more clearly understood. It helps enhance the quality of discourse in our state and brings more people to the table.”

MBQF surveyed 516 high efficacy Arizona voters between August 5th and 7th, 2013. Voters were given a summary explanation of the deregulation issue, and then asked whether they supported, opposed or were undecided about electric deregulation. Issue explanations were randomized to present the question in a different order to each half of respondents.

Among Arizona high efficacy voters, 32% of respondents say they support deregulation, 41% say they oppose it, and 27% remain undecided. Republicans are split nearly evenly, with 35% supporting deregulation to 38% who oppose it, and 27% still undecided. Just 26% of Democrats support deregulation, while 45% oppose and 28% remain undecided.   Independent voters showed 34% support, 42% oppose and 24% remain undecided.

“A lesson we take from this is that no side in this debate has really gained any huge dominance over the other,” said Noble. “As is so frequently the case, influence rests with the undecided voters, and that puts all the more pressure on the companies and the stakeholders in this debate to develop new and more convincing arguments to reach Arizona citizens.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble at the number above. Included in this survey were 516 autodial responses with rotating samples to ensure issue fairness. The Margin of Error for this survey is +/-4.3% at the 95% confidence level.

POLL: Paul Babeu, Early Favorite in Congressional Race AZ01

MBQF

Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claimed a strong lead among likely Republican primary voters for the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona’s 1st District, said consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 349 likely Republican primary voters, 27.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. State House Speaker Andy Tobin trailed a distant second in the poll of potential Republican primary candidates with 5.1%.

Also polled were businessman Gaither Martin (4.6%), and State Representative Adam Kwasman and Doug McKee, who each received 2.1% of respondents’ votes. And with no announced Republican candidate in the race, 58.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2014 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. Nearly one-third of voters (29.2%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 28% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues which would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.9%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 9.2% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 8.6% of respondents. And 4.9% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue which would determine their vote next year. Just 7.2% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on June 26, 2013, from a sample of registered Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2014 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 349 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 5.20%.