Poll: Jeff Flake in Double Jeopardy

High Ground

US Senator Jeff Flake in Double Electoral Jeopardy Twelve Months Away from Primary Election

Republican Party Divided – Provides Opening for Democrats

PHOENIX (August 22, 2017) — A statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake twelve points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%.  The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.

Jeff Flake

Senator Jeff Flake

“While Election Day may still be more than a year away, Senator Jeff Flake’s campaign has a lot of work to do to persuade Republican primary voters that his form of principled Republican conservatism can trump the nativist populism that is fueling Republican voters’ antipathy towards Washington insiders.  These same Republicans still give the President a 74% approval rating in Arizona,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll.

“The good news for Senator Flake’s campaign is that the election is still a year away and his campaign has the financial support to more clearly articulate his own views and define his opponent’s positions.  Additionally, efforts to pass tax reform, infrastructure investment and other major policy initiatives could substantially change the electoral environment in Arizona,” said Coughlin.

The survey showed that Congresswoman Sinema is not known by 45% of the electorate in Arizona while Ward was beaten by nearly 100,000 votes in her primary election against Senator John McCain in 2016.

Coughlin continued, “Kelli Ward may not be well-known in light of her campaign against Senator McCain in 2016.  But even tacit support from the President, with subsequent staffing and financial resources, would be a huge boost for her chances.”

Additionally, General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender.

“The data clearly shows that a contentious primary fight would certainly strengthen the chances of the Democrats to pick up the seat in November of next year.  There is an opportunity for Congresswoman Sinema to take advantage of the uncertainty on the Republican side by jumping into the Senate race,” Coughlin remarked. “The question for the General Election comes down to if Congresswoman Sinema will be able to define herself first to an electorate that is largely unfamiliar with her, or if Republican third-party groups can define her in ways unacceptable to Arizona’s General Electorate.”

The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State.

Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.

Coughlin stated, “It may look dire now, but we must remember a poll is a snapshot in time.”

“Even today, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) began to remind voters that Kelli Ward is not a serious thinker when it comes to the issues confronting our country.  I would expect third-party groups like the SLF and dark money groups like Americans for Prosperity and Club for Growth to come to the Senator’s aid and tout his conservative credentials,” concluded Coughlin. “The Senator is in for the fight of his life and things will only get more difficult if the President Trump continues to pick intraparty fights.”

The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?
[N = 273]

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Kelli Ward or Kyrsten Sinema?

30.5%  Kelli Ward
31.8%  Kyrsten Sinema
37.8%  Don’t know, Refused

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Survey Demographics

Age Group:

10.8%    20 to 29
15.3%    30 to 39
19.7%    40 to 49
29.5%    50 to 64
24.7%    65 Plus

Sex:

48.0%    Male
52.0%    Female

Party:

44.2%    Republican
31.8%    Democrat
15.0%    PND
9.0%      Independent/Other

Congressional District:

11.0%    CD1
14.3%    CD2
7.0%      CD3
11.0%    CD4
12.3%    CD5
13.7%    CD6
6.0%      CD7
13.0%    CD8
11.7%    CD9

NRCC Slams Kyrsten Sinema and Tom O’Halleran In Latest Political Ad

NRCC Releases New Web Video Targeting Arizona Democrats For Accepting Money From Alleged Child Sex Trafficking Scheme

The National Republican Congressional Committee released a web video titled “Caught Red Handed” which targets Arizona Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Tom O’Halleran for accepting thousands in campaign donations from executives accused of facilitating child sex trafficking.

“Kyrsten Sinema and Tom O’Halleran should be ashamed of themselves,” said NRCC Spokesman Jack Pandol.

“They’ve let their desperation to win re-election cloud their moral judgment. Kyrsten and Tom’s decision to knowingly take this tainted money speaks volumes about their twisted priorities as Arizona’s least principled elected officials.”

POLL: Arizona’s 9th Congressional District

Arizona’s 9th Congressional District is currently held by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. The congresswoman won re-election in 2014.

The district consists of parts of Phoenix, Ahwatukee, Tempe, Chandler and Scottsdale.

Can Republicans win this seat back or is it a lost cause?

Or, does it take a unique Republican to win in this district?

Let us know what you think.

And vote in our Monday poll!

Arizona Democratic Party Dirty Halloween Trick Could Backfire on Kyrsten Sinema

Arizona Democratic Party Dirty Trick Could Backfire On Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in 2014 After Libertarian Voters Wanted Her Recalled In 2013

IMG_8405 

Recently, the Arizona Democratic Party (ADP) launched a dirty trick in time for Halloween that comes with no treat for Libertarian voters.  The ADP strategy could have worked a couple of cycles ago, but maybe not this time – particularly when Libertarian Mike Shipley filed recall papers against her last year.  Though the Secretary of State spokesman  said he would not order a recall election in Sinema’s case because the congresswoman is not bound by the state’s recall law, the Libertarian group still wants to invalidate her seat.  In light of the controversial mail out by the ADP, Shipley said: “Don’t underestimate Libertarians because we are here to stay.”

Political dirty tricks happen within both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, but the ADP has sunken to an all new low this time.  It appears ADP’s arrogance with regard to Congressional District 9 underscores their belief that CD9 voters are politically under educated.

According to AZ Central:

“Obviously we prefer Kyrsten Sinema,” said Quinlan. But “our calculation is there are probably a lot of conservative voters who realize (Gammill) is a far more consistent conservative than Wendy Rogers. … We’re pretty much taking (Gammill’s) positions directly from his website and sharing them.”

We implore key swing independent voters of Arizona (now largest voting bloc) to teach Rep. Kyrsten Sinema a lesson specifically in Congressional District 9.  We also implore Sinema’s Latino and Chicano Democratic voting constituents to vote anyone but Sinema and recall to their memory her flip flop on immigration Carlos Galindo exposes repeatedly on his national political talk radio program.  Galindo is a former liberal now registered independent voter of Arizona.

Galindo wrote:

It appears Andiola’s recent departure from Sinema’s employ may have been a forced departure, based on pressure that was placed on Sinema and her congressional office for hiring a staffer who is supportive of an Immigration “advocate” who spews anti-USA rhetoric. Just as important, according to sources, Andiola was a $50,000 a year congressional office staffer allegedly mooching for money to take a trip to Washington with her mom. See screenshot below. 

ADP’s DJ Quinlan is banking on his perception of naïve Republicans believing Powell Gammill is more “conservative” than Wendy Rogers when in fact, Libertarian candidate Powell Gammill is for open borders.  It is also well known how Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema flip flopped on the immigration issue; where she gets tough on immigration on one day — while reversing her view on another day.  Unfortunately and the problem we have with Sinema is voters will not know what they will get with her in light of her many reversals and stances to include criticism with regard to her  exploiting veterans and Latinos.

Make no mistake, our group to include independent registered women, Chicanos, and Latinos want legal immigration reform.  We do not want to be used as political footballs, and while the ADP gave Sinema a free pass to the SB1225 regard, our informed community will not give her one nor will we allow her to forget it.

Originally posted on Somos Independents.

Kyrsten Sinema’s Chickens Come Home to Roost!

Wendy Rogers

Sinema’s chickens come home to roost: Defense Officials Say 20 to 30 Former Gitmo Detainees Have Joined ISIS and Other
Syrian Terrorist Groups

(PHOENIX, AZ) – Today, Fox News reports that DoD officials suspect 20 to 30 individuals, who were formerly detained at the U.S. facility at Guantanamo Bay, now have joined ISIS and other groups fighting in Syria.

“Clearly, Kyrsten Sinema has put our country in danger. Congress must show strength and resolve to our enemies. When liberals began talking about closing Guantanamo Bay, our country rightly became worried about recidivism. Now it has come home to roost. Terrorists who were in our custody are now joining an organization that has been threatening our nation, once again putting them in a position to do harm to America. Kyrsten Sinema and her allies have created this harmful contingent, and they lack the courage to fix it,” said James Harris, spokesman for the Wendy Rogers campaign.“The facts are irrefutable. Kyrsten Sinema voted to allow terrorists to be transferred to American soil and tried in U.S. courts.  Sinema also voted against an amendment that would have eliminated funding for the release or transfer of individuals held in Guantanamo Bay.  Even in the face of mounting danger from ISIS, Sinema has stood by these votes. The question is – will Sinema stand by her whimsy now that former detainees have joined ISIS and are once again threatening our nation?  Kyrsten Sinema has weakened our nation. It’s time to send a military veteran to Congress who gets it – that would be Lieutenant Colonel Wendy Rogers.”

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NRCC: Not Happy With Obamacare? Blame Kyrsten Sinema!

Although released earlier this year by the NRCC, this ad is as relevant today as it was in March. As your premiums and deductibles increase while your coverage decreases, remember who Arizona’s biggest champion of Obamacare was – Kyrsten Sinema.

This election, there is a much better choice. Vote for Wendy Rogers on Election Day!

Small Business Backs Wendy Rogers for Congress

Small Business Choice NFIB Sign-Topper2011_0621_wendy-rogers

Entrepreneurial experience, pioneering career make her Main Street’s choice

The political action arm for America’s voice of small business today announced its endorsement of entrepreneur and pioneer Wendy Rogers for Congress over incumbent Kyrsten Sinema.

“Wendy Rogers knows first-hand the rewards of building a successful enterprise, the duty of making payroll, the challenge of government regulatory compliance and the profound responsibility for the economic fates of as many as 100 employees and independent contractors affiliated with her small business,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business.

“The same pioneering spirit she exhibited as one of the first 100 women pilots in the U.S. Air Force showed up again in her willingness to work as hard as any candidate I have ever seen, knocking on thousands of doors in neighborhoods across her district in 100-plus degree Arizona temperatures.”

Rogers is the owner of a home inspection business, and is an NFIB member. The endorsement of Rogers (9th District) was made by NFIB’s SAFE (Save America’s Free Enterprise) Trust, the association’s political action committee. NFIB has 350,000 dues-paying members across the nation, including 7,000 in Arizona.

“Congresswoman Sinema earned only a 30 percent voting record on 10 issues vital to Main Street in the 113th Congress,” said Lisa Goeas, NFIB’s vice president for political and grassroots. “That is not a way to treat the people who employ more working Americans than big business, big labor or big government ever will. The engine of our economy will run much smoother with Wendy Rogers in Congress.”

Brief, single-pages of bulleted information on the power of the small-business vote, what a small business is and the distinctions it has from a big business can be found here.

“Small businesses significantly impact Arizona’s economy,” reports the Office of Advocacy at the U.S. Small Business Administration. “They represent 97.1 percent of all employers and employ 44.8 percent of the private-sector labor force. Small businesses are crucial to the fiscal condition of the state and numbered 495,227 in 2010. Most of Arizona’s small businesses have fewer than 20 employees.”

For more than 70 years, the National Federation of Independent Business has been the Voice of Small Business, taking the message from Main Street to the halls of Congress and all 50 state legislatures. NFIB annually surveys its members on state and federal issues vital to their survival as America’s economic engine and biggest creator of jobs. NFIB’s educational mission is to remind policymakers that small businesses are not smaller versions of bigger businesses; they have very different challenges and priorities.

Wendy Rogers Releases TV Ad Criticizing Sinema’s Weak Record on National Security Issues

Wendy Rogers

(PHOENIX, AZ) – Today, the Wendy Rogers campaign issued its first TV ad against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.

“Kyrsten Sinema is wrong for Arizona.  From her recent votes on Guantanamo Bay to her past record as an anti-war activist, Kyrsten Sinema is consistently weak on defense.  Kyrsten Sinema’s record speaks for itself.  A former member of the radical anti-war group the Arizona Alliance for Peaceful Justice, she wrote as recently as 2006 that she ‘will always continue to oppose war in all its forms,’ according to The Hill.[1]  She even advocated for the closure of Luke Air Force Base, one of our nation’s top fighter pilot training bases, which is located right here in Arizona,[2]” said Wendy Rogers.

“The only way to keep our nation secure is for our leaders to demonstrate they’ll take decisive action to defend our nation.  Kyrsten Sinema has completely failed this test. She has no credibility in defending our nation.  When asked if our nation should go after ISIS, Kyrsten Sinema dodged the question saying she’d ‘requested a classified briefing’ and would have to ‘carefully evaluate the information’ before she could decide.[3]  Our enemies can smell weakness and lack of resolve. They can read the signals loud and clear from a congresswoman who openly opposes war for any reason and has voted to transfer terrorists out of Guantanamo Bay. She has made a mockery of our national security.  She even led an anti-war protest in a tutu[4].”

The ad exposes Kyrsten Sinema’s weak record on defense, including the following items:

Kyrsten Sinema Voted to Extend Constitutional Legal Rights to Suspected Terrorists

In May 2014, Kyrsten Sinema voted in favor of an amendment which would have allowed the government to transfer suspected terrorists from Guantanamo Bay to criminal jails on U.S. soil and provided for trials under federal or state courts rather than military tribunals.[5]

Kyrsten Sinema Voted Against Prohibiting the Release of Suspected Terrorists

In June 2014, Kyrsten Sinema voted against an amendment which would have defunded federal efforts to release suspected terrorists currently imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay.[6]

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[1] “Candidate’s stance on Afghan, Iraq wars faces scrutiny in Dem primary,” May 2, 2012, TheHill.com
[2] “District 9 race: 3 Democrats in heated primary,” August 8, 2012, The Republic
[3] “Would Congress candidates vote for strikes against ISIS?,” September 10, 2014, The Republic
[4] “District 9 race: 3 Democrats in heated primary,” August 8, 2012, The Republic
[5] Roll Call 234, 5/22/14, H.AMDT.676 to H.R.4435
[6] Roll Call 323, 6/19/14, H.AMDT.905 to H.R.4870

Arizona Voters Can Thank Kyrsten Sinema for their Children’s Loss of Health Insurance Under Obamacare

Wendy Rogers

(PHOENIX, AZ) Wendy Rogers has released the following statement criticizing Kyrsten Sinema’s record on Obamacare.

“Kyrsten Sinema has been a longtime advocate of universal healthcare.  She readily admits having authored parts of Obamacare.  She routinely misled the people of Arizona by parroting the Obama administration’s talking points, to include the lie ‘if you like your doctor (or insurance plan), you can keep it.’[1]  In 2009 before the vote on Obamacare, as a cheerleader for the Obama administration, Sinema perpetuated this lie to countless audiences while barnstorming across Arizona.[2] Since then, however, thousands of Arizonans are suffering from the lie since they’ve now lost their insurance or their doctors from before the law was passed,” said Rogers.

“In a recent interview with The Arizona Republic, Robert Meyer, the CEO of the Phoenix Children’s Hospital, said that 20 children are coming to his facility every day only to find that Phoenix Children’s Hospital is NOT covered by their insurance because of Obamacare.  Previously, they may have had coverage which included Phoenix Children’s Hospital, but since Obamacare brought about the creation of ‘narrow network’ plans, now their choices are drastically reduced to only a select few facilities.  Parents are left with a stark choice – either take their loved one somewhere unfamiliar or try to argue with their insurance company to receive out-of-network coverage for their sick child, something which Meyer notes ‘causes tremendous anxiety for the parents and families that are going through major crisis.’”[3]

“Despite these terrible flaws, Kyrsten Sinema refuses to back down.  Regardless, she voted against the repeal of Obamacare saying ‘the fundamentals of [the program] are good,’[4]  . . . in the face of all the contrary evidence.  At the very least, Kyrsten Sinema should go on record to say she was wrong for supporting Obamacare and spreading the Obama administration’s lie to Arizonans.  Obamacare hurts families.  I’m a mother – – it pains me deeply to see bad government policy continue to hurt children.  Obamacare is wrong for our nation, and Kyrsten Sinema should be ashamed for supporting it.”

Kevin McCarthy: Three House Seats In Play In Arizona

Wednesday, Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was on the Hugh Hewitt Show with Congressman John Campbell. McCarthy and Campbell both gave a few minutes to assessing US House races across the country and began their conversation with our Arizona.

According to Majority Leader McCarthy, Arizona has three congressional races in play and likely pickups.

Top of the list is CD-1 where Andy Tobin is challenging Kirkpatrick; CD-2 where Martha McSally is coming on strong against Ron Barber and finally CD-9 where Wendy Rogers has a good chance of defeating Kyrsten Sinema in the General Election.

What this means is Republican Congressional leadership is engaged in what is happening here in Arizona.  Don’t be surprised if the NRCC throws some resources – money, ads, logistic support, endorsements, etc. – in order to ensure success in winning these three congressional House seats.

Here’s the transcript from Wednesday’s Hugh Hewitt Show:

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy:  Arizona-1, Kirkpatrick seat, this is an R+4, meaning it leans a Republican seat. She has been in one term within here. I think it’s a great opportunity. You’ve got Andy Tobin, they just had their primary, it just got determined. Andy is a conservative over there in the state legislature, actually was the speaker, great individual on all the tough issues. He’s led so many conservative movements there. The second is Arizona-2. This is Barber’s seat, currently R+3. Martha McSally, now Martha came last time less than 1,200 votes from winning the seat. Martha is the first female pilot in combat. She flew the A-10, remarkable woman, served our country so well. She would make such a great member. Those two in Arizona, you’ve got another one in Arizona, I’d say Arizona-9. We’ve got Wendy Rogers is our candidate again against Sinema. She’s a freshmen. This is R+1. All three of those are in play.

To ensure victory this November, let’s make sure we get out and work hard to get these fine candidates elected.