POLL: Arpaio Shakes Up AZ Senate Race

McSally leapfrogs Ward for the lead, Arpaio close second

Steve Bannon’s endorsement is the kiss of death for Kelli Ward

PHOENIX (January 10, 2018) – What happens when America’s former Toughest Sheriff joins the fray for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona? The race for the GOP nomination gets thrown into disarray.

A new poll conducted of 504 registered voters was conducted Tuesday by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) shows U.S. Rep Martha McSally of Tucson is the new leader with 31 percent support. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who announced this week his intention to seek the nomination, follows closely at 29 percent. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward now trails with 25 percent.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15-Phoenix (OHPI/ABC-PHOENIX) teamed up to find out how the entrance of Arpaio changes the dynamics of the Senate election contest.

OHPI conducted an IVR survey of 504 likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared statewide here in Arizona. The sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the 2018 GOP Primary Election in this survey with a +/-4.36% margin of error.

“Sheriff Joe makes a splash wherever he goes and his surprise entrance into the U.S. Senate race shines a new light on this important race to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.. “Everyone knows Joe. He has near-unanimous name recognition. But it doesn’t mean he is universally loved. It will be a challenge convincing voters he’s a new Joe.”

We first looked at where the candidates stack up in regards to their name ID, fav/unfav and net positive numbers.

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, of Tucson, leads the pack, however, all three are within the margin of error. She also is the least damaged of the group given she only has a 17% total unfavorable number, although, a third of voters don’t know who she is. Arpaio clocked in at an astounding 97% name ID and by almost a 2-1 margin he holds a positive view from likely GOP primary voters. A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so we ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

 

Now, let’s see how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

Back in November, OH Predictive Insights polled the horse race with just McSally and Ward.  Ward was in first place with 42% and McSally trailed by 8 points at 34% with 24% undecided. With Arpaio entering the race McSally goes from second to first and Ward goes from first to last place with only 15% of voters remaining undecided.

Where did the votes go? McSally only dropped 3 points from the previous poll, which is within the margin of error. Arpaio’s entrance did not affect her. Ward on the other hand lost 17 points, which migrated over to Arpaio. Arpaio also pulled 9points of the undecideds off the board, which now leaves just 15% of voter’s undecided in this contest.

Now, we will take a look at how a Trump, Bannon or McConnell endorsement would impact GOP voters for this race.

A Trump endorsement makes a huge difference, with 73% of voters saying his endorsement is a significant influencer in their decision. And by more than 2-1, Trump moved voters in a positive direction. McConnell only moves 57% although in the wrong direction by 8 points.  Steve Bannon’s endorsement on the other hand moves 70% of voters and that direction is straight into the ground.

 

Finally, we wanted to try the horse race question again, but this time inject the primary backers of each candidate. Ward has been endorsed by Bannon.  Trump pardoned Arpaio and he was his first major endorsement in the GOP presidential primary. McSally is one of Mitch McConnell’s top recruits for Senate.

“Joe Arpaio’s decision to enter the senate race spells doom for the wobbly Ward campaign,” Noble said. “Ward’s support seemed to be a half mile wide and just a half inch deep. One day of Joe Arpaio in the race ruins more than a year of work Ward has done to capture the GOP nomination. Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are headed for a Tombstone-style showdown in August with the winner having to take on a rested and loaded for bear Kyrsten Sinema.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on January 9th, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, and gender, however, age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to the survey medium. The margin of error is of ± 4.36%.  Note: Average age of those who voted a Republican ballot in the 2014 election in Arizona was 65.

Jon Gabriel on the Trump Pardon of Arpaio

Fellow Conservatarian friend and blogger extraordinaire, Jon Gabriel, gets a shout out for his great work on Ricochet, Sunday Square Off and his recent op-ed in USA Today. Be sure to sign up for a subscription to his blog for ongoing great content.

Here’s his recent media appearance on Sunday Square Off.

Also, check out Jon’s recent op-ed in USA Today:

Sheriff Joe Arpaio is no conservative and no hero, no matter what President Trump says

President Trump asked the crowd last week at his Phoenix rally, “Was Sheriff Joe convicted for doing his job?” Had the hall been filled with an accurate cross section of Arpaio’s former constituents, the answer would have been a resounding “no.”

Jon Gabriel

Jon Gabriel

Nevertheless, Trump pardoned the ex-sheriff on Friday, though he had not been sentenced and had shown zero remorse for his crime. America’s self-proclaimed “toughest sheriff” was convicted of criminal contempt of court last month after refusing to obey court orders. This most recent legal battle involved numerous federal attempts to get Arpaio to stop racially profiling residents of Maricopa County.

Not only did Arpaio refuse, he bragged about it: “Nobody is higher than me. I am the elected sheriff by the people. I don’t serve any governor or the president.”

Many conservatives outside of Arizona celebrated his headline-grabbing antics, but they don’t know the real story. I’m a conservative Maricopa County resident who has lived under Arpaio throughout his decades-long reign. Arpaio was never a conservative; he just played one on TV.

I saw his love of racial profiling firsthand, especially on my daily commutes through the tiny Hispanic community of Guadalupe, Ariz. When conducting these “sweeps,” helicopters buzzed houses, an 18-wheeler marked “Mobile Command Center” was planted in the center of town, and countless sheriff’s deputies stood on the roadsides, peering into the cars rolling by. Being Caucasian, I was always waved through. The drivers ahead and behind me weren’t so lucky.

Washington’s laxity in border enforcement led many right-of-center Americans to appreciate more robust enforcement, even when it regularly included authoritarian scenes such as the one in Guadalupe. But even if you turn a blind eye to the human cost of such race-based enforcement, Arpaio’s other misdeeds are legion.

During one three-year period, his Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office didn’t properly investigate more than 400 alleged sex crimes, many of them involving child molestation.

In all, the department improperly cleared as many as 75% of cases without arrest or investigation, a fact outlined in a scathing report by the conservative Goldwater Institute.

When local journalists delved into Arpaio’s dealings, he had them arrested, a move that ultimately cost taxpayers $3.75 million. We paid $3.5 million more after the sheriff wrongfully arrested a county supervisor who had been critical of him.

About the same time, Arpaio sought charges against another supervisor, a county board member, the school superintendent, four Superior Court Judges and several county employees. All of these were cleared by the courts and also resulted in hefty taxpayer-funded settlements for his targets.

As a U.S. District Court judge presided over a civil contempt hearing, Arpaio’s attorney hired a private detective to investigate the judge’s wife.

On the pretext of going after an alleged cache of illegal weapons, a Maricopa SWAT team burned down an upscale suburban Phoenix home and killed the occupants’ 10-month-old dog. There were no illegal arms, so they arrested the resident on traffic citations.

Arpaio’s staff concocted an imaginary assassination attempt on the sheriff, presumably for news coverage. Taxpayers had to pay the framed defendant $1.1 million after he was found not guilty.

The sheriff’s department misspent $100 million on the sheriff’s pet projects, and wasted up to $200 million in taxpayer money on lawsuits. Yet he still found money to send a deputy to Hawaii to look for President Obama’s birth certificate.

All these antics, and many more, finally persuaded Maricopa County voters to oust the sheriff by a whopping 10-point margin. They selected his Democratic opponent, despite choosing Trump by 3 points in the same election.

Convicting Arpaio of contempt of court is similar to busting Al Capone on tax evasion. It was merely the tip of the iceberg considering his numerous violations of the public trust.

The sheriff bragged in a TV interview that he would “never give in to control by the federal government.” Unsurprisingly, Arpaio ran to the federal government for help when he found himself in legal trouble. And he got it, from a president who is just as committed to truth, justice, the rule of law, conservative principles and his oath of office. That is, not very committed at all.

Jon Gabriel is editor in chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic. Follow him on Twitter at @exjon.

 

 

 

Sheriff Joe Arpaio Endorses Andy Biggs for Congress

ablogo

“We need leaders like Andy in Congress who will work to secure our borders and uphold our immigration laws.”

PHOENIX (March 2) – Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio today announced his endorsement of Arizona Senate President Andy Biggs for Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District.

“Andy Biggs has stood for conservative principles each and every day he has served in the Arizona Legislature,” Sheriff Joe Arpaio said. “We need leaders like Andy in Congress who will work to secure our borders and uphold our immigration laws. I know that Andy Biggs won’t ever compromise his beliefs, and that is what makes him a perfect replacement for Representative Matt Salmon. I trust that the voters of Congressional District 5 will back the only true conservative in this race, and I’m very proud that Andy answered the call to give voters that true conservative to support. Please join me in supporting Andy Biggs for the United States House of Representatives.”

Arpaio’s endorsement follows endorsements for Biggs from Congressman Matt Salmon, Congressman Trent Franks, Phoenix Councilman Sal DiCiccio, and Senators Sylvia Allen, Nancy Barto, Judy Burges, Debbie Lesko, Gail Griffin, Steve Yarbrough, David Farnsworth, John Kavanagh, and Steve Smith.

“Arizona primary voters have a great respect for Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s endorsements, and I am honored to have received his support for my candidacy,” Senator Andy Biggs said. “He has set an incredible example for Arizona elected officials, standing for the rule of law and against unenforced federal immigration laws. I hope to work with him in the years ahead to uphold our laws and to strengthen our border enforcement.”

About Andy Biggs
Senator Andy Biggs is an Arizona native and has lived in Gilbert with his family for the past 25 years. He is married to Cindy and they have six children. He is a retired attorney and is licensed to practice in Arizona, Washington, and New Mexico. The Senator has a bachelor’s degree in Asian Studies from BYU and a J.D. degree from the University of Arizona. He earned a M.A. in Political Science from ASU and has done additional graduate work there. Senator Biggs served Legislative District 22 in the State House of Representatives for eight years before being elected to the State Senate in November of 2010. Andy has earned the designation “Champion of the Taxpayer” from Americans for Prosperity for his cumulative service in the state legislature and has been honored numerous times by the Goldwater Institute as a “Friend of Liberty.”

Ted Cruz, Matt Salmon Win Straw Polls at Maricopa County Republican Election

Here are the results of the straw poll conducted during the January 10th Maricopa County Republican Committee Statutory meeting. The poll gauged precinct committeemen support for the 2016 Presidential candidates and support for the Republican nominee to the US Senate (currently held by John McCain).  Twenty-five poll sheets were provided to each of the 20 legislative districts to distribute to the first precinct committeemen to register.  The poll was separate from the balloting for officers and resolutions.

2016 Presidential Candidate – Votes
Ted Cruz – 66
Scott Walker – 59
Ben Carson – 49
Mitt Romney – 43
Jeb Bush – 30
Rand Paul – 29
Mike Huckabee – 16
Rick Perry – 13
Allen West – 10
John Kasich – 7
Newt Gingrich – 5
Bobby Jindal – 5
Condoleezza Rice – 5
Dennis Michael Lynch – 4
Rick Santorum – 4
John Bolton – 3
Marco Rubio – 3
Chris Christie – 2
Susana Martinez – 2
Sarah Palin – 2
Mike Pence – 2
Herman Cain – 1
Mitch Daniels – 1
Nikki Haley – 1
Paul Ryan – 1
John Thune – 1
Kelly Ayotte – 0
Haley Barbour – 0
Carly Fiorina – 0
Peter King – 0
Tim Pawlenty – 0
Rob Portman – 0
Brian Sandoval – 0
Tim Scott – 0

 

2016 Senate Candidate – Votes
Matt Salmon – 106
David Schweikert – 66
Sarah Palin – 49
John McCain – 39
Trent Franks – 38
Write in – 34
Christine Jones – 13
Jan Brewer – 8

Write-Ins – Votes
Paul Gosar – 18
Claire Van Steenwyk – 3
Gabby Saucedo Mercer – 2
Ray Kouns – 1
Joe Arpaio – 1
Wendy Biggs – 1
AJ LaFaro – 2
Kelli Ward – 1
Bill Montgomery – 2
Steve Smith – 1
Susan Bitter-Smith – 1
Mickey Mouse – 1

Sheriff Joe Arpaio will not run for Governor

Will Campaign for another Election for Sheriff

PHOENIX, AZ – Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio released the following statement today about his decision regarding the Governor’s race in Arizona:

“I cannot in good conscience leave the Sheriff’s office now, since that would be necessary if I declare a candidacy for Governor. Currently, I have several sensitive investigations in progress and am facing many challenges in my office. Because of this, I will not desert the people of Maricopa County who have elected me six times. Further, I cannot desert my dedicated employees.”

Arpaio continued, “As I mentioned the night of my re-election in 2012, I stated that I would run again for Sheriff in 2016. So many have already supported my campaign for another term, having already raised over $4.2 million in the last 16 months.”

“I am a warrior who will continue to fight for the people of Maricopa County and my office. I know during the past years if I ran for Governor, I would have won. Recent polls still show my approval rating among Republicans between 85-90% and consistently over 60% among all voters. But personally, it was not in my cards. My wife of 57 years, Ava, has always supported me and will continue to support me no matter what office I run for.”

Sheriff Joe Arpaio was re-elected to a sixth term in November 2012. In January of 2015, Sheriff Arpaio will be the longest serving elected Sheriff in Maricopa County history.

Sheriff Joe Arpaio Releases New Ad on Animal Abuse

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio really is a tough sheriff with a soft spot.

Arpaio Campaign: Democrat Candidate Penzone Misses the Mark

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 24, 2012
CONTACT: Chad Willems

PHOENIX, AZ – The Re-Elect Joe Arpaio 2012 campaign committee released the following statement today:

“The first Democrat to file and announce his campaign for Maricopa County Sheriff, Paul Penzone, stumbled out of the gates this morning with an announcement that is riddled with errors about Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s record of service,” stated Arpaio campaign manager Chad Willems.

Penzone states in his online video that “on Sheriff Joe’s watch, more than 400 reports of sexual abuse against women and children were never investigated.”

The fact of the matter is this: the mishandling of these cases was brought to the Sheriff’s attention over four years ago, in 2007. Arpaio immediately ordered the cases re-opened and investigated. They have been brought to a conclusion.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Police Department has nearly 3,000 cases involving sex crimes and molestation that were mishandled. The PPD’s neglect in pursuing these cases surfaced only months ago, yet Penzone fails to mention his own department’s failures in these cases.

Penzone also states that the MCSO has failed to serve more than 40,000 felony warrants across the county. The fact of the matter is the vast majority of those are the responsibility of Penzone’s Phoenix Police Department.

Penzone’s tenure with the Phoenix Police Department as a sergeant offers him no experience in financial management and no decision-making power over the department’s budget.

“Penzone seemingly is a willing victim of believing the rhetoric from fringe groups that want to see Arpaio out of office. As a former spokesperson for the Phoenix Police Department, Penzone should know to check his facts before making public statements. Before he gets too far down the campaign trail he might want to review the facts before he further embarrasses himself,” Willems concluded.

###

 

Michele Bachmann coming to Arizona!

Chairman Tom Morrissey
Arizona Republican Party

&

Sheriff Joe Arpaio
Maricopa County Sherriff

Invite You to a Special Reception with

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District

Saturday, April 2, 2011
10:00 a.m. – VIP Reception & Program
$250 per person

11:00 a.m. – General Reception & Program
$35 per person

Scottsdale Plaza Resort
7200 N. Scottsdale Road
Scottsdale, AZ 85253

Please send checks payable to:
Arizona Republican Party- Federal Account
3501 North 24th Street
Phoenix, AZ 85016

R.S.V.P. to Chad Willems at (602) 708-1123 or chad@summitgroupnet.com

Paid for and Authorized by
Bachmann for Congress. www.BachmannforCongress.com
And Arizona Republican Party Federal Account.
www.AZGOP.org.

Proceeds will be shared equally by both committees. Donors may designate contributions to either committee. The allocation formula may change if a donor has exceeded the contribution limits. All contributions are subject to federal contribution limits and are not deductible for Federal income Tax Purposes. Federal law requires us to use our best efforts to obtain and report the name, address, occupation and employer of all contributors.

Sheriff Arpaio and John Huppenthal to Hold Education Town Hall in Scottsdale

Press Release

Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator John Huppenthal, Chairman of the Senate Education Committee and Candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction, will be hosting an Education Town Hall on July 22 at 6:30 pm at the Scottsdale Civic Center Library Auditorium.

Education is one of the most critical issues facing our state:

  • How do we reduce the school drop-out rate?  How do we prevent juvenile delinquency?  What effect will reducing the drop-out rate have on juvenile crime?
  • What every parent should know about drugs and substance abuse in our schools.
  • How do we ensure the continued use of English immersion in our schools?
  • How can we ground our students with respect for the Constitution and our Founding Fathers and imbue them with a proper sense of our country’s history?
  • Why are only half of our students reading by the end of the 4th grade; how do we improve literacy and reading proficiency? What are the effects of illiteracy on crime?
  • Can Arizona compete on a national or world stage in math and science?

Discussion will focus on how to improve education in Arizona, the challenges we face, our education standing relative to other states and related issues. Come join a lively discussion!

Details: Thursday, July 22, 2010,  6:30-8:30 pm, Scottsdale Civic Center Library Auditorium, 3839 N. Drinkwater Blvd., Scottsdale, AZ 85251-4452

Paid for by John Huppenthal 2010.

Joe Arpaio Endorses Augustus Shaw

Augustus Shaw

For Immediate Release: Monday, February 8, 2010

TEMPE, AZ – District 17 House Republican Candidate Augustus Shaw announced today that he received the endorsement of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

“Augustus Shaw is the only Republican candidate that I will support for District 17 House. He has a proven track record of leadership and offers the voters in Tempe and Scottsdale a real choice this November. They can either vote for tax-and-spend liberals or they can send a true conservative to the legislature to fight for lower taxes, less spending and getting our state back on track,” said Arpaio.

Commenting on the endorsement, Augustus Shaw stated “I’m honored to have Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s endorsement. He has been a leader in our state’s fight against illegal immigration and his ‘get tough’ policies on criminals have yielded a lower crime rate across Maricopa County.”

Shaw brings a wealth of experience to the race. Augustus, an attorney by trade, is the founding attorney and managing member of Shaw & Lines, LLC, a law firm that employs 8 Arizonans. As well as being the 1st Vice Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, Augustus currently serves on the City of Tempe Transportation Commission and has served on the City of Tempe Redevelopment Review Commission. He has also served on other various Boards and Commissions, including the Maricopa County Bar Association Foundation, Maricopa County Board of Adjustment and The Leadership Centre.

“Arizona is sadly in a state of disarray. A new vision is needed in order to solve our State’s economic problems. I am running because I believe District 17 and Arizona can and should have a representative who puts the interests of working families and taxpayers first. We can and should do better,” added Shaw.

Augustus is married to Andrada Shaw, also a Tempe native and has two wonderful children, Ezekiel Augustus Shaw, age 5 and Audrey Isabella Shaw, age 2.

To find out more about Augustus, please visit www.shawforarizona.com.