Fightin’ Words!

Gary Kiehne

Gary Kiehne

Even without a calendar, you’d know it’s election time by the sudden reappearance of Senator Jeff Flake within the state’s borders and on television.

His handlers have clearly decided the way to sell Flake to Arizona as a conservative is to rebrand him as Senator Barry Goldwater, even brazenly stealing the title of Goldwater’s iconic book, The Conscience of a Conservative.

But Flake is no Goldwater.

When Flake refers to Arizonans as “nativists” and “protectionists” because we believe in sane immigration and trade policies, he is using “fightin’ words”!

What is wrong with calling illegal immigrants, illegal immigrants?  What is wrong with basing our immigration policies on what is best for America, rather than what is best for the Third World’s impoverished masses that want to come here?  (Some seeking paradise and a brighter future, others a government handout, and sadly some who would do us harm.)

What is wrong with advocating America-first trade policies, rather than tolerating one-sided trade deals that suck money out of our economy and yank jobs from our shores?  Is it really “protectionist” to show spine when advocating for the people whose interests you are elected to represent?

The late Senator Barry Goldwater was not a “globalist.”  He was an America-first patriot.

In his new book, Flake says, “if we’re going to be a governing party in the future, and a majority party” we need to change our approach (to his own brand of Republicanism.)  I might point out to the Senator that we already are the majority party now!  As an unofficial member of the Senate’s “Surrender Caucus,” he has become so accustomed to surrendering before a battle is fought that he should probably be forgiven for not recognizing we hold the majority, and acting accordingly.  And when he does pick a battle it is within his own party, namely with President Trump.  As a member of the Senate’s “Gang of Eight” he honestly believed that if we gave the Democrats everything they wanted up-front in the reviled immigration bill, the Democrats would honor their word to give Republicans everything we wanted later.  Much later.  Really, Jeff?  If you really believed that, I have some Ocean Front Property I’m dying to sell you.   Senator, show me when that has happened in the last 70 years?

Barry Goldwater was a courageous fighter, statesman, and patriot who was not afraid to stand alone and sound a warning bell about the dangers of encroaching socialism.

Unlike Jeff Flake, Barry Goldwater didn’t promote compromising our foundational American principles.  Jeff Flake seems to think “we are at our best” when we compromise “across the aisle” to surrender our principles gradually, giving America away in bite-sized pieces.  When Flake suggests it is possible to find healthy “common ground” with Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi, he may as well suggest healthy cells grow through “compromise” with cancer cells.  Government-dictated socialism cannot co-exist with free-society capitalism any more than cancer cells can co-exist with healthy cells.

Today’s national Democratic Party is no longer the party of John Kennedy.  It’s the party of extremists like Bernie Sanders, and others even more radical than he.  Today’s Democrats promote a virulent strain of socialist cancer…and what is at stake today is nothing less than America’s survival as a prosperous, free Republic based on individual liberties enshrined in our constitution…or, it’s continued descent into becoming a failed, bankrupt, socialist regime like Venezuela or Cuba.

Fortunately, we still have a way of self-correcting our course in America.  It’s called an election.

A recent survey found that Senator Flake was ranked the third most unpopular man in the U.S. Senate behind only Senator Mitch “Surrender” McConnell, and our other Arizona Senator, John McCain.  It’s undoubtedly for good reason.

Hopefully, Arizonans will remember the actions of Senator Flake in the five years he has been absent from Arizona, rather than buy the re-branded, newly-packaged “Goldwater Conservative” his handlers are selling us now.

Goldwater’s undoubtedly rolling over in his grave.

By Gary Kiehne, a former Arizona candidate for U.S. Congress, business owner, rancher, Trump supporter and unabashed Barry Goldwater supporter.

The Thin Blue Line Between Gary Kiehne and Paul Babeu

Political analysts see Arizona’s CD-1 primary race tightening with rancher Gary Kiehne quickly closing in on Paul Babeu.

Kiehne has self-funded his current and former campaigns with over $750,000 of his own money. With so much of his personal wealth at stake, Kiehne began attacking Babeu last week.

Early Ballots will hit mailboxes on August 3 with the bulk of the votes taking place before Primary Election Day.

Pundits expect Babeu to fire back with both barrels. Why? Kiehne is highly vulnerable – especially now – because of his 2014 gaffe comparing Arizona law enforcement to Nazi SS agents. Not a winsome remark to have made considering law enforcement personnel are literally being attacked across the country.

If Babeu is to maintain his lead in the race, watch for him to remind voters that Keihne crossed the thin blue line when he showed callous disrespect toward the law enforcement community in 2014.

Update on AZ01 GOP Candidate Earn vs Burn Rates

In an earlier post, we provided an analysis of the campaign finance reports of Arizona’s CD-1 candidates. At the time, no information was available from the Shawn Redd campaign because the reports were filed manually with the Federal Elections Commission. Those reports are now available.

We also need to correct a number on another candidate campaign in which a typo occurred on the spreadsheet. That candidate’s financial health actually improved significantly with the correction. Read our updated analysis below.

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An analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by CD-1 candidates shows some interesting financial trends taking place.

Looking exclusively at the first quarter period of time, we calculated daily earn and burn rates for each of the campaigns effective March 31st. There were 91 days in 1Q.

These rates have been adjusted based on the number of days the campaign has been operating for the 1st quarter period of time. In addition, we calculated the burn rate for each candidate to the Primary Election date. There are 152 days until the Primary Election from March 31st. This is the amount of money the campaign has left to spend on a daily basis to get to August 30th leaving no money left in the bank.

For this assessment, all reports are now available and are pro-rated accordingly to the days a candidate has been in the race. For example, Wendy Rogers has been in the race for 78 days and Carlyle Begay has only been in the race 22 days. The earn and burn rates are adjusted accordingly.

Here are the updated/corrected numbers:

Candidate Campaign Raised 1Q Days in 1Q Daily Earn Rate 1Q Spent    1Q Daily Burn Rate 1Q Daily Earn vs Burn Gap Cash on Hand 1Q Days to Primary Daily Burn Rate to Primary Election
Babeu $157,734 91 $1,733 $148,157 $1,628 $105 $259,351 152 $1,706
Begay $39,905 22 $1,814 $513 $23 $1,791 $39,392 152 $259
Bennett $80,027 91 $879 $55,633 $611 $268 $195,691 152 $1,287
Gowan $169,390 91 $1,861 $70,978 $780 $1,081 $238,468 152 $1,569
Kiehne $48,980 91 $538 $113,933 $1,252 -$714 $513,615 152 $3,379
Redd $1,800 91 $20 $7,615 $84 -$64 $1,785 152 $12
Rogers $144,209 79 $1,825 $51,809 $656 $1,170 $100,765 152 $663

 

As a prior post pointed out, Paul Babeu has the highest burn rate followed by Gary Kiehne. Excluding Begay’s campaign due to the short period of time, both Wendy Rogers and Ken Bennett have the lowest burn rates. [pullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]For the entire quarter, Wendy Rogers was the most financially disciplined candidate while Paul Babeu was the biggest spender and Gary Kienhe ran the largest deficit.[/pullquote]

We corrected the amount raised for Wendy Rogers which resulted in a significant boost to her daily earn rate. That still resulted in David Gowan barely remaining at the top of the list with a daily earn rate of $1,861 but moved Wendy Rogers into second place at a daily earn rate of $1,825. Paul Babeu trailed at a daily earn rate of $1,733 but if we include Carlyle Begay given the short amount of time he has been in the race, Babeu drops to 4th place.

One thing to note about fundraising for these candidates is the ease of access to PAC and lobbyist money. As Speaker of the House David Gowan has tremendous influence over the outcome of legislation. Many lobbyists have bills making their way through the Arizona House and that means a high level of interaction and access with the Speaker. A review of Gowan’s report reveals that many lobbyists have contributed to his campaign. It also shows that he has received $16,250 in PAC contributions – the top recipient of all the candidates. Carlyle Begay placed 2nd in PAC contributions at $12,000 while Babeu ran 3rd with $5,000. Ken Bennett bottomed the list with $1,000 in PAC contributions. Gary Kiehne, Shawn Redd and Wendy Rogers received no money from PAC’s

Looking at available money, Gary Kiehne has the highest amount available to spend on a daily basis heading into the August 30th Primary Election. It should be noted that Kiehne has loaned his campaign the most money out of all the other campaigns with $50,000 being fronted to the campaign during the 1st quarter and $678,072 being loaned during the election cycle to date.

Candidates with a larger gap between earn and burn rates this early in a campaign are more likely to be in better financial shape heading into an election. Obviously, candidates should be raising more money then they are spending to avoid draining their resources or running a deficit. Here’s an UPDATED graph of those rates showing the daily gap between each candidate’s earn and burn rates:

AZ01 Candidate Daily Earn & Burn Rates

 

In this graph, Gary Kiehne has an inverted burn to earn gap of -$714. Shawn Redd’s gap is now included in this analysis and shows he spent more money than he took in during IQ with a daily gap of -$64. Paul Babeu’s campaign is barely staying ahead of his burn rate at $105/day. Ken Bennett may have a lower burn rate but his earn rate is also very low giving him a gap of $268. That leaves Wendy Rogers and David Gowan with the healthiest gaps. Gowan’s gap amounts to $1,081 but after a correction in the data, Rogers’ gap grows to $1,170 making her the candidate with the healthiest daily earn-to-burn rate. (Carlyle Begay was excluded from this 1Q analysis because the campaign had only been in the race for 22 days which is below a 30-day billing cycle for spending money.)

  • Paul Babeu spent $0.94 for every dollar he raised
  • Ken Bennett spent $0.70 for every dollar he raised
  • David Gowan spent $0.42 for every dollar he raised
  • Gary Kiehne spent $2.33 for every dollar he raised
  • Wendy Rogers spent $0.36 for every dollar she raised

Our conclusion: David Gowan raised the most money although much of it was from lobbyists and PAC’s. Paul Babeu spent the most amount of money and his daily earning rate is barely keeping ahead of his daily spending rate. Gary Kiehne ran the largest deficit spending for the quarter having raised the least amount of money but loaning the campaign the most amount of money. Ken Bennett raised the least amount of money for 1Q and spends nearly 70% of what he raises. Carlyle Begay has not been in the race long enough to derive an accurate assessment. Shawn Redd’s financial reports eliminate him from the analysis as an outlier. While Wendy Rogers placed 3rd in fundraising, she has the healthiest daily earn vs. burn rate showing her to be the most financially disciplined candidate in the race for CD-1.

Here are links to each candidate’s campaign finance reports on the FEC:

Paul Babeu
Carlyle Begay
Ken Bennett
David Gowan

Gary Kiehne
Shawn Redd
Wendy Rogers

Analysis: Earn and Burn Rates for AZ01 Candidates

An analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by CD-1 candidates shows some interesting financial trends taking place.

Looking exclusively at the first quarter period of time, we calculated daily earn and burn rates for each of the campaigns effective March 31st. There were 91 days in 1Q.

These rates have been adjusted based on the number of days the campaign has been operating for the 1st quarter period of time. In addition, we calculated the burn rate for each candidate to the Primary Election date. There are 152 days until the Primary Election from March 31st. This is the amount of money the campaign has left to spend on a daily basis to get to August 30th leaving no money left in the bank.

For this assessment, it should be noted that the FEC shows no 1Q report for Shawn Redd. Also, Wendy Rogers has been in the race for 78 days and Carlyle Begay has only been in the race 22 days.

Here are the numbers:

Campaign Raised 1Q Days in 1Q Earn Rate 1Q Spent    1Q Burn Rate 1Q Earn vs Burn Gap Cash on Hand 1Q Days to Primary Burn Rate to Primary Election
Babeu $157,734 91 $1,733 $148,157 $1,628 $105 $259,351 152 $1,706
Begay $39,905 22 $1,814 $513 $23 $1,791 $39,392 152 $259
Bennett $80,027 91 $879 $55,633 $611 $268 $195,691 152 $1,287
Gowan $169,390 91 $1,861 $70,978 $780 $1,081 $238,468 152 $1,569
Kiehne $48,980 91 $538 $113,933 $1,252 -$714 $513,615 152 $3,379
Redd
Rogers $114,209 79 $1,446 $51,809 $656 $790 $100,765 152 $663

 

As a prior post pointed out, Paul Babeu has the highest burn rate followed by Gary Kiehne. Excluding Begay’s campaign due to the short period of time, both Wendy Rogers and Ken Bennett have the lowest burn rates. [pullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]For the entire quarter, Wendy Rogers was the most frugal candidate while Paul Babeu was the biggest spender.[/pullquote]
David Gowan topped the list when it comes to daily earn rate followed by Paul Babeu and Wendy Rogers. Again, we excluded Carlyle Begay given the short amount of time he has been in the race.

Finally, Gary Kiehne has the highest rate available of money to spend heading into the August 30th Primary Election. It should be noted that Kiehne has loaned his campaign the most money out of all the campaigns with $50,000 during the 1st quarter and $678,072 election cycle to date.

Candidates with a larger gap between earn and burn rates this early in a campaign are more likely to be in better financial shape heading into an election. Obviously, candidates should be raising more money then they are spending to avoid draining their resources or running a deficit. Here’s a graph of those rates compared against each other for each of the candidates:

EarnvsBurnRates

In this graph, Gary Kiehne has an inverted burn to earn gap of -$714. Paul Babeu is barely staying ahead of his burn rate at $105. Ken Bennett may have a lower burn rate but his earn rate is also very low giving him a gap of $268. That leaves David Gowan and Wendy Rogers (we are excluding Begay and Redd) with much healthier gaps. Gowan’s gap amounts to $1,081 and Rogers’ gap amounts to $790.

Note: When/if we receive FEC data for Shawn Redd, we will add this to the analysis.

Gowan leads Q1 Fundraising in CD 1; Carlyle Begay falters

For all of the narrative that members of the media and his opponents seek to destroy his candidacy with, Arizona House Speaker David Gowan led all Republican challengers in fundraising for the first quarter of 2016. Gowan’s fundraising number for Q1 was extremely impressive because of the fact that he has not been able to fundraise from Capitol lobbyists during the (still-ongoing) Arizona legislative session.

Here were the amounts raised in the first quarter from the major Republican candidates in CD 1:

  1. David Gowan                 $169,390.27
  2. Paul Babeu                     $157,734.35
  3. Wendy Rogers               $144,209.00
  4. Ken Bennett                   $ 80,027.00
  5. Gary Kiehne                   $48,980.47
  6. Carlyle Begay                 $39,906.00

Here are some notes about the first quarter of fundraising in CD 1:

  • A significant amount of Wendy Rogers’ Q1 funds came from out-of-state donors.
  • Paul Babeu’s burn rate is mind blowing, and his out-of-state funds are disproportionate to a candidate who claims to want to represent Arizona and CD 1. Though his scandals have not greatly hurt his fundraising so far, many donors are still waiting to see how long he can survive in the race before another significant story from his checkered past breaks against him.
  • For all the talk about how Carlyle Begay was going to raise upwards of $100,000 for the quarter, his haul was severely underwhelming and raised serious questions about his viability in a Republican primary. Most people have already noted that without the Arizona Republican Party’s exaggerated and drawn-out celebration of his party switch (masterminded by the then-Executive Director of the AZGOP, Chad Heywood-now Begay’s consultant), Begay would have no foothold in this primary. Simply put, Carlyle Begay is merely a product of a conflict of interest by the immediate-past ED of the AZGOP (as previously reported by the Yellow Sheet), and his fundraising numbers are reflecting this dark reality.
  • Ken Bennett raised a respectable amount of money, but not enough to break through into the presumed top-tier of contenders.
  • Gary Kiehne has the potential of challenging for the frontrunner’s position because of the shier amount of dollars that he has already lent himself. If he can run a disciplined campaign to the end of the primary, he has a shot a the Republican nomination.

POLL: The Republican Nominee for AZ01

Monday Poll: The Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Gary Kiehne Speaks at Americans for Prosperity Event in Rural Arizona

GaryKiehneBanner
GARY KIEHNE SPEAKS AT AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY “HELP STOP THE CLEAN POWER PLAN” RALLY IN JOSEPH CITY
 
October 3, 2015…Today, Gary Kiehne, the Republican and conservative, grassroots candidate for Congress in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, is a featured speaker at the Americans for Prosperity “Help Stop the Clean Power Plan” Rally in Joseph City, AZ.

Kiehne, a cattleman and successful small business owner, released the following comments in advance of the AFP rally:

“Here in rural Arizona and across this state and nation, we continue to suffer as a result of the continuous overreach from the EPA.  The latest regulations released in the Clean Power Plan in August take things one step further by increasing the emissions regulations.  These expectations serve up three punches in a row to our state.  First, killing hundreds of jobs across Arizona’s rural 1st Congressional District, home to several coal fired plants.  Second, taking a sledgehammer to the natural resource that produces nearly 40% of our electricity in the state.  And third, these new regulations are going to hit Arizonans where it hurts the most, in our wallets.

With no plans at the ready to replace the jobs we’ll lose, the electricity we’ll miss and increase economic growth to help our citizens afford higher energy costs, we’ve got to stand up and fight back against this overreaching EPA.  As a small business owner in oil and gas exploration and production, ranching and the hotel industry, I know how hard it is to comply with the messy red tape regulations stemming from the federal government, and I’ve had enough.  That’s why I’m running for Congress, to rein in the continued overreach coming out of Washington, DC and return decision making to Arizonans and our local communities.”

To keep up with Kiehne for Congress, please follow us on
Facebook and Twitter.

POLL: Sheriff Paul Babeu Early Favorite in AZ01 Congressional Race

MBQF

Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns, says Noble

(Scottsdale, AZ)—Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claims a strong lead among Republicans in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District according to a poll conducted by consultant and pollster Mike Noble.

In a survey of 687 likely Republican primary voters, 17.3% say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. Former State House Speaker Andy Tobin trails Babeu with 10.1% followed by businessman Gary Kiehne at 7.5%.

With no announced Republican candidate in the race, 64.9% of respondents say they are undecided.

“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, regularly on national news and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”

“Less than a year ago Tobin and Kiehne spent over two million dollars and campaigned aggressively in CD-1 and if you combine their numbers they would merely tie Sheriff Paul Babeu.” Noble added.

The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2016 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. One-fourth of voters (25.4%) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 25.7% said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues that would ultimately determine how they voted.

Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.3%. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 10.4% of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 5.9% of respondents. And 8.0% said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue that would determine their vote next year. Just 11.9% said they were undecided or didn’t know.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on May 26, 2015, from a sample of likely Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 687 completed surveys, with a MoE of +- 3.71

Letter from Arizona Fraternal Order of Police to Gary Kiehne

PoliceLetter Kiehne