New Poll Shows Christine Jones Leading in Arizona’s CD-5

OH Predictive Insights
Outsider Message Resonating in AZ05 Congressional Race

PHOENIX (July 21, 2016) — Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. Within the past seven weeks the race has changed, as outsider Christine Jones has surged into the lead with only two weeks until early voting begins for the primary election.

In a survey conducted on July 19 of 408 likely Republican primary voters, undecided voters have dropped 26 percentage points since the last poll conducted on June 2. Despite the competition seen in the June 2 poll, the race has tightened up and Christine Jones now sits atop of the respective Republican field, ahead her nearest competitor by 7 percentage points.

AZ05PollSheet1

“Within the last seven weeks Christine Jones came from almost last place to now leading one of the most sought-after congressional seats in the country,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, said. “This is an election cycle unlike any other and Christine Jones is a perfect example of why this cycle may be forever referred to as, ‘The Year of the Outsider.’”

AZ05PollSheet2

*May not equal 100% due to rounding

“When it comes to the battle of the faith vote Andy Biggs and Don Stapley garned just over half of the LDS demographic.  Christine Jones made significant improvement in the other non-LDS religious communities,” Noble added.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on July 19, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican Primary voters across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the upcoming Arizona Republican Primary for Congress. The sample size was 408 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of +/-4.84%

Read the press release online.

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About OH Predictive Insights
With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.

Olson, Biggs, Stapley – Career Politicians Seeking Arizona’s CD-5

There’s no doubt for Republicans that 2016 will be a year that favors outsiders running for office. Career politicians are out, conservative non-politicians are in.

That certainly is the situation in several Arizona political races and especially in the East Valley.

With the exception of one candidate, Arizona’s 5th Congressional District is crowded with career politicians – though you would never know it based on the rhetoric of the candidates.  In reality, this club of career politicians has a combined total of 38 years in politics!

Let’s look at the messaging of each of these candidates.

Posted all over Justin Olson’s campaign website is the theme that Washington politicians are the problem and he is not one of them. He even claims not to be a career politician and qualifies the statement by stating he hasn’t spent 10, 12 or 14 years in office (a comparison to two of his Primary opponents). Here’s what he doesn’t tell you. Justin Olson was first elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2010. By the end of this year, he will have been in office a total of six years. Instead of pursuing a fourth term (Arizona’s Constitution limits legislative office to four terms or eight years per chamber), Olson has decided to jump for the open congressional seat of retiring Matt Salmon. This ambitious and risky move to pursue a federal office has career politician written all over it and it’s why we label him as a career politician. One other note. Olson also takes on lobbyists on his website but fails to disclose that he received almost $27,000 in campaign contributions from PAC’s and special interest groups during his 2014 campaign.

[pullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]This ambitious and risky move to pursue a federal office has career politician written all over it[/pullquote]

Andy Biggs is also running on the anti-establishment theme. On his website, Facebook page and Twitter feed , he tries to make the case he’s a political outsider taking on ‘the establishment.’ One of his press releases even touted an endorsement by Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan who stated Biggs would “challenge the Washington establishment.” His website is littered with endorsements from Arizona politicians, Washington insiders and unions.

Andy Biggs has also been working the Arizona political system for almost 14 years. Even before he was elected to the Arizona Legislature, Biggs was part of Matt Salmon’s inner circle during Salmon’s unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2002. That same year, he also ran for political office and was elected to the Arizona House. He was term limited out of the Arizona House in 2010 but jumped over to the State Senate in 2011. He’s been there for almost six years. Total time as a career politician -14 years.

[pullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Don Stapley has embraced his inner politician and has no problem expressing public displays of that form of affection.[/pullquote]

Then there’s Don Stapley. Throughout Stapley’s messaging, he is proud of being a career politician. His campaign ad boasts about coming from a family of politicians. And of course, he dotes over his 18 years as a Maricopa County Supervisor. Stapley does rail against regulations by the federal government but unlike the other two aforementioned candidates, Don Stapley has embraced his inner politician and has no problem expressing public displays of that form of affection.

Given the current political times, it’s doubtful that Stapley’s strategy will be a path to victory for the nomination but what else will work for a man who dodged seven felony charges because the judge believed political motivations tainted the case?

Altogether, Olson, Biggs and Stapley bring a total of almost four decades of politics to the CD-5 race.

Even with all the unpredictability of the 2016 elections, there is one constant. Voters will no longer tolerate or elect career politicians – a problem that Justin Olson, Andy Biggs or Don Stapley cannot seem to hide or evade.

Calls for Arpaio Resignation Pure Political Opportunism

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: December 13, 2011
CONTACT: Chad Willems

PHOENIX, AZ – The Re-Elect Joe Arpaio 2012 campaign committee released the following statement today:

“Elected Democrat officials in Arizona are breathlessly calling for the immediate resignation of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio based on a four-year-old story involving sex crime investigations, which were reviewed and investigated by his office four years ago. These Arpaio detractors are also breathless in their insistence that none of this has to do with politics or partisanship.

The actions and words of Ruben Gallego, Randy Parraz, Steve Gallardo, Kyrsten Sinema, Congress members Ed Pastor and Raul Grijalva, and other elected Democrats, reek of political opportunism and partisanship. After all, these are the same Democrats that have been opposed to the Sheriff’s enforcement of illegal immigration laws for years.

The fact of the matter is this: the mishandling of these cases was brought to the Sheriff’s attention in 2007. Arpaio immediately ordered the cases re-opened and investigated. They have been brought to a conclusion. Further, the Sheriff is hiring an expert in the area of sex crimes investigations to train staff for future cases and will offer that service to other law enforcement agencies.

Meanwhile, the City of Phoenix has nearly 2,500 cases involving sex crimes and molestation currently under review. Many of these were never pursued or were mishandled. These cases surfaced only months ago, yet there is a deafening silence from these elected officials in calling for elected Mayor Phil Gordon, a Democrat ally, to immediately resign.

Why would they remain silent about Phil Gordon? Mayor Gordon was responsible for going to Washington several times to request that the Justice Department investigate Arpaio’s enforcement of state and federal immigration laws.

Arpaio has stated he will not criticize Valley law enforcement agencies that currently have the same problem his office experienced four years ago. However, for these elected officials and other activists to use these investigations, which have received extensive coverage media coverage through the years, as a pure political tool is disgusting.

Many of these Democrat politicians calling for Arpaio’s resignation are the same ones that have called upon the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate his office. But they have curiously remained silent on any calls for resignation from (Democrat) Attorney General Eric Holder and his role in the “Fast and Furious” scandal that resulted in the death of a U.S. Border Patrol agent.

The political left in this state feels emboldened by their recent success in removing Senator Russell Pearce from office. The leader of that effort, Randy Parraz, has publicly stated that his next target is Arpaio.

Tomorrow this group will attend and surely disrupt the Maricopa County Board of Supervisor’s meeting in a futile attempt to have Arpaio removed from office.

The transparent political stunt to resurrect a four-year-old story after steps have been taken to resolve the issue is shameful, desperate and again, disgusting.

The voters in Maricopa County will see this for what it is and reject this partisan witch hunt.”

Next month, Arpaio will announce plans for his political future.

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Steve Chucri Files Candidacy for Maricopa County Board of Supervisors

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 29, 2011
CONTACT: Steve Chucri

Steve Chucri, Native East Valley Resident, Files Candidacy for Maricopa County Board of Supervisors

Steve Chucri

(MESA, AZ) – Stephen D. Chucri (R-­‐Mesa) filed his official candidacy papers today for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in District 2, an area that includes Fountain Hills, Carefree, Cave Creek, Gilbert, Mesa, Paradise Valley, and Scottsdale. Born and raised in Mesa, Steve comes from a long-­‐standing and well-­‐respected early East Valley family. Steve’s grandfather, Tony M. Coury, Sr., founded a pioneering automobile dealership in Arizona, Tony M. Coury Buick, on Main Street in Mesa. The family was an anchor in the East Valley business community for several decades.

Steve learned from his family the high value of honest and transparent business principles, the kind of traditional values that promote faith and trust in community leadership. Steve continues to apply these principles today in his role as President and CEO of the Arizona Restaurant Association, where he advocates on behalf of the $9.4 billion dollar restaurant industry in Arizona. Representing a multitude of restaurant operational, regulatory, human resources, and policy issues while finding ways to grow jobs and small business success has proven to be Steve’s strong suit. True to his family’s roots, Steve continues to support the American automobile industry in Arizona through his advocacy for General Motors and their Desert Proving Ground in Yuma.

“Now is the appropriate time to replace finger-­‐pointing with problem-­‐solving in our county leadership,” said Mr. Chucri. “There is a thirst throughout our community to activate fresh perspectives, and to replace the endless distractions with genuine and conservative servant-­‐leadership. More government spending has failed to renew our community. Instead, we must act constructively together to honestly shrink and reform government by reducing job-­‐killing regulation and mandates and to allow the free enterprise system to implement the creativity and proven success of free market principles.”

Campaign Chairman and Restaurateur, Matt McMahon stated, “I’ve seen first-­‐hand Steve’s ability to get the job done. We need his free market approach and can-­‐do style to change the way government conducts itself.”

Not only do his Arizona roots run deep, so does Steve’s family values and respect for fellow members of his community. Through his involvement as a board member of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, Tourism Advisory Council, Phoenix Sports Commission and other entities, he has earned the respect of his colleagues for his forward thinking and ability to resolve complex problems.

Honorary Campaign Chairman, U.S. Representative David Schweikert said, “Steve has a long history of commitment to our community. Joyce and I believe his integrity and passion will make him a terrific Supervisor, as well as someone we can all be proud of.”

Steve, 41, resides in Mesa with his wife of 12 years, Christine, and their two sons.

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Maricopa County, AZ: Energy Success Story

Here is the latest video produced by The National Association of Counties featuring Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley.

This video details how Maricopa County is leading the way in solar and other renewable energy efforts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOADHIbwmCM

Jon Kyl to retire. What next?

Now that it’s official that Senator Jon Kyl will not seek re-election, there’s a whole lot of political conversations taking place.

Going back to my political chessboard analogy, several elected and former elected officials are beginning to telegraph their next move on Arizona’s playing field. Here’s a quick assessment of the situation.

First the Democrats. As the new year began, I predicted that Kyrsten Sinema would be the voice and face of the Democratic party here in Arizona. She has. Her media exposure is up, she’s photogenic and she’s got her soundbites down to an art. Following closely behind is her colleague from Tempe, Senator David Schapira. He’s taken a lead on legislation and has also earned considerable media attention. Would either Sinema or Schapira have a chance for a US Senate seat in 2012? Probably not but let’s remember that a lot can happen between now and November, 2012.

Should House GOP members “drop the ball” on what they promised their constituents, voter attitude could quickly sour against Republicans. Another factor would be who Republicans nominate as their candidate for President. An old ill-tempered Washington insider-incumbent would snuff out the spark generated by the TEA Party revolution and give Obama the hope he craves to win a second-term. Regardless, Sinema or Schapira probably would not fair well in Arizona’s conservatarian political climate. Napolitano may also return to Arizona but a US Senate campaign would require a massive political makeover and a dose of voter amnesia to take place.

Let’s turn to Republicans.

Congressman Jeff Flake is clearly the front runner. Every political pundit knows he’s been chomping at the bit for years. He has the attitude for the job too – he’s always the first one from the delegation to head back to DC and the last one to come home. Most political consultants will tell you this race is his to lose. But Flake has some political liabilities and they’re big ones with Arizona conservatives. First, he has supported lackadaisical immigration reform. He prefers to call it “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” but many call it “Amnesty.” He’s buddied up with other amnesty advocates like Congressman Luis Gutierrez and made it clear that he wants a variety of immigration reforms in place.  To his recent credit, he voted against the DREAM Act. However, among social conservatives, Flake did vote to repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” as recent as this last December. And as early as this week, Flake voted to renew provisions of the Patriot Act.

Then there are the political insiders who know the “Flake Political Machine.” Just as ruthless as the “McCain Mafia,” Jeff Flake’s people are hard-core, hard-ball, scorched-earth troopers. Case in point: the 2008 legislative district 18 GOP Primary challenge against Russell Pearce by Flake’s brother-in-law, Kevin Gibbons. Watch for Flake’s arch-defenders to wage political warfare on any challenger.

This leaves Congressman John Shadegg, who as early as the 2008 election cycle was showing disdain toward returning to Washington, D.C. Many remember he even indicated he would not seek re-election in 2008 but then changed his mind. Many pundits have long thought he would not seek a US Senate seat but then as recent as last fall, said he would consider it. There’s no doubt the backroom conversation is taking place or has already taken place between Shadegg and Flake. Among more conservative Republicans, Shadegg’s one political liability, TARP, is probably more forgivable than Flake’s open embrace of comprehensive immigration reform. Since the TEA Party’s rise, he’s been constantly reminded of that vote. And since then he’s publicly stated that he regretted making the vote. The question now is whether two political powerhouses would be willing to duke it out in the public arena. My guess is that Flake walks out of that backroom conversation smiling.

Who else could be taken serious entering a GOP Senate primary? Dean Martin, Trent Franks, Grant Woods? Each name carries some weight but would they consider challenging a colleague? Money would also be an issue. Woods, who ranks in the negatives with conservatives, would be tapping donors from the same pool as McCain and Flake. Martin, a darling among conservatives, would need to retool his fundraising abilities. That leaves Congressman Franks, who almost every conservative adores, to have to resort to hardball tactics against Flake’s machine. Anyone who knows Trent Franks, knows that hardball politics is not his character.

Would JD Hayworth consider another run against “The Establishment” candidate? I would venture to say yes. He’s the freshest candidate from a statewide Senate primary and he’s proven he can raise millions of dollars not only in state but across the country and in a short amount of time. And let’s not forget that JD’s no one to turn down a good political challenge against someone who is diametrically opposed to his position on immigration. If border security (whatever happened to McCain’s 10-Point Plan?) continues to experience the violence of drug cartels, armed confrontation and even murder, don’t rule a JD Hayworth candidacy out. Some conservatives might even call this political matchup a JD vs. McFlake redux.

Given that Flake enters the race for US Senate, that leaves a vacuum in the east valley which is even more complicated by the addition of a new congressional district. Former State Senator Chuck Gray has expressed serious consideration to fill either Flake’s vacant seat or the new congressional seat. TEA Party candidate, Jeff Smith, is also taking a serious look at entering either race. And don’t rule out a possible candidacy by Arizona Speaker of the House, Kirk Adams, who is proving himself worthy while serving in his current position. Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu has also been mentioned but given his focus on cleaning up Pinal County politics and fighting drug cartel runners, will likely remain serving as Sheriff. Other potential names include Pinal County Supervisor Bryan Martyn and Phoenix City Councilman Sal DiCiccio.

Other political seats that may likely change hands include Fulton Brock’s supervisorial district, Don Stapley’s supervisorial district and Maricopa County Sheriff. Conventional political wisdom is that Russell Pearce will seek Sheriff Joe’s seat once Arpaio retires.

All this makes great political theater right here in Arizona. Over the next few months, expect to see campaigns forming including Presidential campaigns. For those who live for high political drama, the stage is being set. Now it’s only a matter of time until the characters take that same stage.

And one last thing before I forget to mind my political manners, let me thank Senator Jon Kyl for his sacrifice and service to this great State of Arizona.

Don Stapley: Building Green in Maricopa County

Maricopa County Supervisor and NACo President Don Stapley discusses Maricopa County’s role in developing a green strategy and implementation through the development and use of green facilities like the Estrella Mountain Regional Park.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXgrTjdkctw