Data Orbital: Arizona Early Voting Reveals Four Major Trends

Phoenix, AZ (October 31, 2018) With only 6 days remaining until Election Day, over 1.2 million ballots have already been cast in Arizona. Shattering past midterm election turnout figures for the state, these early ballot returns reveal major trends that will continue to play out through Election Day.

The major takeaways for current ballot returns are:

  1. Republican ballot advantage far ahead of 2016: On this same day in 2016 – a Presidential election year – 1,228,936 ballots had been returned, with the Republican Ballot Advantage being +6.4% percentage points, with a margin of 79,180 ballots. With a larger ballot advantage of +9.4% this cycle and a margin of 114,512 ballots, the statewide ballot advantage is likely to see only minor shifts, barring any unprecedented Democratic return numbers in the final week.
  2. Democratic voters holding their ballots longer than 2016: Democratic voters are holding onto their ballots longer than in 2016, averaging 12.44 days compared to 11.36 days in 2016, but shorter than their 13.26 day average in 2014. Meanwhile, Republican voters aren’t holding onto their ballots as long, sitting at an average of 11.76 days compared with 11.97 days in 2016 and 13.48 in 2014.
  3. Older voters far outnumber young and middle-aged voters: Voter ages 55+ outnumber those under 55 by a 2:1 margin.
  4. New voters spilt among parties: Republicans hold a 34.04% share of the 88,700 new voters who have cast a ballot, compared to 34.31% Democrats and 29.75% Independents.

Massive Turnout

According to analysis of AZ-08 special election results, new Arizona voter registration figures, and various pundits, 2018 was projected to be a “blue wave” year.  However, as Arizona has historically cast almost two-thirds of its ballots early, a blue wave scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.  Gaming out the remainder of early ballot returns, any potential downward shift in the Republican ballot advantage will be offset by their 100,000+ ballot advantage.

Looking at the number of ballots requested, Democrats have seen a higher request rate from their registered voters at 78.9% compared to 77.4% of registered Republicans. This two-point spread is up 1.1 percentage points from the 2016 cycle. However, as we saw in 2016, this disparity is minimized by Arizona having more registered Republicans than Democrats. Turning to returned ballots, Republicans currently hold a statewide turnout percentage of 36.7% compared to 32.0% of registered Democratic voters.

New and Frequent Voters

With every election cycle, there is a push to get new voters* to mail in ballots and show up on Election Day.  So far, new voters are only making up 7.15% of total returned ballots. With just fewer than 20% of these 88,700 voters being under the age of 24, a wave of freshly registered young voters does not appear to be returning ballots. Across Arizona’s Congressional Districts, the top concentration of these new voters is in AZ-08 and AZ-05, at 14.93% and 14.54% of the 88,700 voters. At the other end of the spectrum, voters who have voted in all of the past four general elections are a staggering 584,100 of returned ballots and are mostly Republican, with the GOP having a 48.57% share.

*New voters are voters who have not voted in any of the last four general elections.

Election Day Voters

With today being the last day for voters to turn in early ballots and the last major early ballot reports coming out by the end of the week, the focus is turning to Election Day voters. Registered voters who have not requested an early ballot total about 1.2 million. Republicans still hold the advantage here with 27.27% of these voters being registered Republicans. If we look specifically at voters who are likely to turn out based on their general election voting history, the Republican advantage grows to +23.5 percentage points as they have a 50.88% share of these 122,637 voters who have voted in all of the previous four elections. The highest concentration of these voters is in Arizona’s Congressional Districts 02 and 04, with just over 11,000 of these highly likely voters being registered Republicans.

The possibility of early ballots being returned at polling places on November 6th also presents yet another large group of potential voters, totaling just above 1.4 million. These remaining ballots have a slight Democratic advantage, with Democrats holding a 32.95% share compared to a Republican 32.04% share. Looking just at highly likely voters who have voted in three or four of the past four general elections, this advantage flips with the Republican advantage growing to 11.85 points at a 43.96% share of 436,670 ballots.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: “We started this year anticipating a blue wave scenario with pundits predicting Republicans would have a 4-5% ballot advantage.  But now, as we look at early voting, it’s very clear that this blue wave scenario just isn’t happening.  Total turnout numbers are only slightly below 2016, which is even more instructive than the current Republican ballot advantage.  The record turnout is causing the total raw Republican ballot advantage to be much higher than both 2016 and 2014, giving Republicans a strong advantage going into election day.  Since they make up a little more than 50% of likely Election Day voters, it is going to be very difficult for Democrats to turn that advantage around.”

Overall, we are looking at a record-turnout election where both Republicans and Democrats are energized to vote.  Over the next six days, we will continue to track returns and trends to better predict election day results.  Follow the daily updates at dataorbital.com.

DATA ORBITAL NEW SURVEY: Immigration a Key Issue for Arizona GOP Primary Voters

Phoenix, AZ (June 28, 2018) – Data Orbital has announced additional results from the latest statewide survey of Arizona’s likely GOP primary election voters. The survey focused on what the key issues are for likely voters in statewide races. Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Tuesday, June 19th and ending on Thursday, June 21st.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

These results are broken down by gender and age groupings below with immigration being more important to GOP women.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

Below, we see a comparison of likely voters’ top issue by their favorability towards President Trump.

It is worth noting that this survey started a day prior and concluded a day after President Trump’s most recent executive order concerning family separation at the border.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: “Immigration has long held the position of top issue for GOP primary voters and with all the recent news regarding the border, this cycle is no different. It is interesting to note that women are the driving factor behind these top results with them being 6% more likely to select immigration as number one. It also comes as no surprise that k-12 education is number one with GOP voters that are 18-34, highlighting the disparity between them and their older 55 and over counterparts who overwhelmingly chose immigration.

This poll of 550 likely GOP primary voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.17%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over three days from June 19th-21st. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here.

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience.  Through combine data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates.

Poll: Support For Ducey’s Teacher Raise Plan Holding Steady

Data Orbital

By Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) As a follow up to our poll released this past Tuesday, April 17th, and with a possible teacher strike beginning tomorrow, it is clear that Arizona voters are still supportive of the plan put forward by Governor Ducey. These same voters have also largely heard of and are positive towards the Red for Ed campaign.

Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Wednesday, April 18th and ending on Saturday, April 21st, as voters have been learning more details around the Governor’s plan to increase teacher pay by 20%.  Our live caller poll found that a vast majority of Arizona voters continue to approve of the Governor’s plan.  In addition, almost 50% of voters surveyed also have a positive opinion of the Red for Ed campaign.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers?

The support for the plan continues to be consistent along party lines.  Democrats are still most likely to favor the Governor’s plan, coming in at nearly 75%.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Party Registration

The poll found virtually no difference between males and females in their approval of Governor Ducey’s plan.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Gender

Support is also fairly consistent across age demographics with the highest support coming from those between 18 and 34 years of age.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Age

Support is highest among those who have voted in at least 3 out of the last 4 general elections and lowest among those who have no previous history of voting in general elections (they made up only 3% of the sample).

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s plan to give a 20% pay raise to teachers? Breakdown by Voting History

As mentioned above, the Red for Ed movement is fairly well known with nearly 60% of voters familiar with it and only 29% certain they hadn’t heard of it.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United?

It is not surprising that Democrats are more likely to have had positive exposure to the Red for Ed movement while Republicans have the highest negative sentiment towards it. As was mentioned above, most samples were collected prior to Red for Ed announcing their strike.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Party Registration

Women are also more likely to have a positive opinion while men are more likely to be negative in their opinion.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Gender

There also is a clear age correlation towards the overall exposure to Red for Ed. Older voters who don’t have children in K-12 are much more likely to be unfamiliar with it while younger voters with school age children have a higher positive exposure.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Have you heard about the Red for Ed movement started by Arizona Educators United? Breakdown by Age

Demographics

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Gender and Age
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Party Affiliation and Roll-Up
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Poll Demographics - Ethnicity and General Vote History

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: “It has been nearly a week and a half since the Governor announced his teacher pay raise plan and support has largely held steady with likely voters. These same voters tend to have positive views of Red for Ed, with support predominantly along partisan lines.”

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This poll of 700 likely general election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 50% of the results from land lines and 50% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.64%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over four days from April 18th-21st. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here.  To receive regular blog updates, subscribe here.

New Poll: Mesa Residents Overwhelmingly Want Council Member To Resign After Second DUI Charge

Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) – The Public Integrity Alliance recently commissioned two polls, both conducted by Data Orbital that shows Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle largely favored to resign after second super extreme DUI arrest. Councilman Winkle, in his first time on the Mesa City Council, has faced recent scrutiny after an arrest in Tempe where he allegedly nearly hit pedestrians while swerving.

Data Orbital, a Phoenix based consulting firm, announced today the results of two surveys that asked Mesa residents city wide and specifically residents of Mesa District 3 (the district Mr. Winkle represents) their knowledge of the recent arrest and if the DUI was merit enough for him to be removed or asked to resign by the Mesa City Council.
The poll results, that were taken city wide and specifically in his home district Mesa 3, showed that 70% of people favored his removal/resignation while only 14% thought he should not be removed. Also, a little more than 40% of people were aware that this was his second DUI arrest.

Tyler Montague, President of Public Integrity Alliance had this to say:  “Councilmember Ryan Winkle has argued that he should remain in office in spite of his behavior because ‘his district wants him there’ because they elected him. Clearly that’s no longer the case. Integrity matters, and Winkle has lost the mandate to lead and should listen to the vast majority of Mesa residents who want him to resign.”

 

Data Orbital Poll

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “It is clear that Mesa voters overwhelmingly want Mr. Winkle to step aside and allow the city to move forward in the process. While it is true that people deserve forgiveness, our elected officials are held to a higher standard and that is a standard Council member Winkle has now broken twice.”###

Survey One: IVR poll of 800 registered voters in the city of Mesa has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from automated landline surveys over three days. City Wide Toplines.

Survey Two: Live & IVR mix poll of 300 registered voters in Mesa City Council District 3 has a margin of error at plus or minus 5.7 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from live cell phone and automated land line surveys over three days. Mesa District 3 Toplines.

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