POLL: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

 

OH Predictive

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll conducted via IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the GOP Special Election in this survey with a +/-4.89% MOE.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

Here is how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since our last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so OHPI ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.
Here is the State of the Race in AZ-08 summarized in 40 Seconds

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

Bob Stump Tweets Candidacy for Congress in CD-8

Former Arizona Corporation Commissioner and State Senator Bob Stump tweeted Thursday evening that he will be a candidate for Congress in Arizona’s 8th congressional district.

“Given his impending resignation from Congress, I have decided that I will be a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Congressional District 8. More to come!”

Congressman Trent Franks announced his resignation last night (see statement below) leaving the seat vacant at the end of January, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey will need to call for a special election that will certainly spur several Republican candidates in what is expected to be a competitive Primary contest. The district is heavily Republican.

You can follow Bob Stump on Twitter here.

Statement from Chairman Herring on the Resignation of Congressman Franks

Maricopa County Republicans

Phoenix, AZ – Maricopa County GOP Chairman Chris Herring released the following statement regarding the resignation of Congressman Trent Franks.

“We thank Congressman Trent Franks for his service to Arizona and Congressional District 8,” said County Chairman Chris Herring. “Congressman Franks was my representative since I moved to Arizona and I respect his decision.”

“We expect a healthy field of Republicans to contend for the seat. We look forward to the voters of District 8 deciding on their new representation.”

Rep Trent Franks’ Resignation Statement

I have always tried to create a very warm and supportive atmosphere for every last person who has ever worked in my congressional office. It is my deepest conviction that there are many staffers, former and present, who would readily volunteer to substantiate this fact.

Trent FranksGiven the nature of numerous allegations and reports across America in recent weeks, I want to first make one thing completely clear. I have absolutely never physically intimidated, coerced, or had, or attempted to have, any sexual contact with any member of my congressional staff.

However, I do want to take full and personal responsibility for the ways I have broached a topic that, unbeknownst to me until very recently, made certain individuals uncomfortable. And so, I want to shed light on how those conversations came about.

My wife and I have long struggled with infertility. We experienced three miscarriages.

We pursued adoption on more than one occasion only to have the adoptive mothers in each case change their mind prior to giving birth.

A wonderful and loving lady, to whom we will be forever grateful, acted as a gestational surrogate for our twins and was able to carry them successfully to live birth. The process by which they were conceived was a pro-life approach that did not discard or throw away any embryos.

My son and daughter are unspeakable gifts of God that have brought us our greatest earthly happiness in the 37 years we have been married.

When our twins were approximately 3 years old, we made a second attempt with a second surrogate who was also not genetically related to the child. Sadly, that pregnancy also resulted in miscarriage.

We continued to have a desire to have at least one additional sibling, for which our children had made repeated requests.

Due to my familiarity and experience with the process of surrogacy, I clearly became insensitive as to how the discussion of such an intensely personal topic might affect others.

I have recently learned that the Ethics Committee is reviewing an inquiry regarding my discussion of surrogacy with two previous female subordinates, making each feel uncomfortable. I deeply regret that my discussion of this option and process in the workplace caused distress.

We are in an unusual moment in history – there is collective focus on a very important problem of justice and sexual impropriety. It is so important that we get this right for everyone, especially for victims.

But in the midst of this current cultural and media climate, I am deeply convinced I would be unable to complete a fair House Ethics investigation before distorted and sensationalized versions of this story would put me, my family, my staff, and my noble colleagues in the House of Representatives through hyperbolized public excoriation. Rather than allow a sensationalized trial by media damage those things I love most, this morning I notified House leadership that I will be leaving Congress as of January 31st, 2018. It is with the greatest sadness, that for the sake of the causes I deeply love, I must now step back from the battle I have spent over three decades fighting. I hope my resignation will remain distinct from the great gains we have made. My time in Congress serving my constituents, America and the Constitution is and will remain one of God’s greatest gift to me in life.

Trent Franks, Other Arizona Conservatives Need to Keep Healthcare Promises

By Sam Stone

The Trump Administration may be less than two months old, but for conservatives, it may already be D-Day in Washington.

In less than 48 hours, the House of Representatives is set to vote on the curiously named “American Health Care Act” – the current GOP effort being pushed by Speaker Paul Ryan as a repeal and replacement of Obamacare.

This bill is the wrong idea at the wrong time and it does not deserve a “yes” vote. Right now, the count says that it’s too close to call. So every member of Congress counts.

Here’s our question: Will Trent keep his promise to repeal and replace Obamacare in a responsible way?

Let’s step back.

Trent Franks is no rookie when it comes to opposing Obamacare. Look at his record here. Lots of detail and votes against what he consistently calls: “Health care proposals that wrested control of the American health care industry from the hands of private organizations and turn it over to the federal government.”

Right when this year’s Congress began, Franks and Congressman Andy Biggs introduced the Protection from Obamacare Mandates and Congressional Equity Act.

Franks said it contained three bedrock principles:

  • First, it gives every American more coverage options.
  • Second, it would allow Americans to purchase their coverage across state lines, opening up more opportunities for competition that will, in turn, help to lower costs for consumers.
  • Third, our alternative protects the patient-doctor relationship.

Just a month ago, Rep. Franks said: “My concern is [a repeal-replace bill] will give some lackadaisical senator a reason to vote against it. My concern is the entire repeal is in mortal danger … There may be some people who will get weak-kneed.”

These are valid concerns, but they sound like reasons not to vote for the current plan, which has all sorts of problems.

The reliable conservative policy think tank Heritage Action makes the fundamental case that the AHCA falls short:

“Many Americans seeking health insurance on the individual market will notice no significant difference between the Affordable Care Act (i.e., Obamacare) and the American Health Care Act.  That is bad politics and, more importantly, bad policy.

“Rather than accept the flawed premises of Obamacare, congressional Republicans should fully repeal the failed law and begin a genuine effort to deliver on longstanding campaign promises that create a free market health care system that empowers patients and doctors.”

Congressman Franks is a solid conservative leader. Currently, he is listed as “leaning no.” That’s why this is the ideal time to give him the support, encouragement and, well, cautionary warning he may need to stay true to his principles and his promises by not resting until Obamacare is gone – and in its place a true, principled alternative – instead of Obamacare-lite.

Congressman Trent Franks On NAU Shooting, US House Leadership

Here is the latest video from Congressman Trent Franks on the NAU shooting. Congressman Franks also addresses why leadership in the US House is changing and what is pushing those changes in leadership. Congressman Trent Franks opposed Kevin McCarthy’s intention to seek House Speaker as a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Franks points out that the Senate filibuster has been the elephant in the room when it comes to what is driving a change in the next Speaker of the House.

Jesse Kelly Withdraws from CD-2 Republican Primary Contest

Republican candidate Jesse Kelly released the following statement today regarding the Republican Primary in the new Congressional District 2:

“I would like to thank our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, my wife Aubrey, and our supporters for their unwavering commitment to the values that make America great. Looking at the results from Tuesday, we have decided to withdraw from the race for Congress in AZ-02 and to seek other opportunities. I will forever be thankful to our generous supporters and volunteers.”

Sonoran Alliance would like to thank Jesse for stepping up to serve once again and for his hard-fought effort to win the CD-8 Special Election. We wish him the best in his pursuits and would hope that he continue to work in the conservative political movement.

Thank you Jesse and may God bless You and Yours.

It’s time to put a stop to the Ron Barber Barack Obama Team!

Ron Barber supports the Obama Cap & Trade Bill which would cost Arizona families almost $1000 in added energy costs and destroy 40,000 jobs!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOkDqZVBvB4

Ron Barber called upon to disown latest attack ad on Jesse Kelly

(Reposted from The Arizona Daily Independent)

The latest negative ad offering by the Rob Barber campaign has drawn criticism from all corners. The new TV ad from the House Majority Pac uses a snippet from a speech Jesse Kelly made long before Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot by a deranged Jared Loughner. TucsonCitizen.com editor, Mark Evans wrote, “Barber is going to have to disown what a BS misleading POS ad this is.”

Giffords whose recovery and spirit are considered nothing short of courageous by everyone, including Kelly himself, is being used as a source of support for Barber in the ad.

The creators use a small portion of a speech Kelly delivered to supporters at a 2010 picnic in Continental Ranch. Candidate for County Board of Supervisors James K elly said of the ad, “The ad itself identifies it a s a 2010 statement. But people are going to hear the statement not see 2010.” The ad does show 2010 in the upper left hand corner, but one ad viewer said, “there is no clue why that number is on the screen.”

In the ad, Kelly is criticizing Giffords shortly after he lost to her by a narrow margin. “She stands there with that smile and pretends to be some kind of hometown hero.” At the time of the speech, many Arizonans were disappointed with her lack of support for a secure border, and failure to connect with her constituents.

“Before she was shot, Jesse was correct to challenge her leadership, specifically concerning ObamaCare which all TeaParty members opposed. She and her leadership misled us when they had her say, “I have to sign this bill because it will cut the deficit by $100 billion”. Even a novice who had not read the whole bill would know that adding 150 new agencies could NEVER reduce the deficit by one penny,” said Carolyn Cox Chairwoman of the Pima GOP.

“We all know no one read that bill before it was signed. In comparison, Medicare was debated for seven (7) years before it was signed. Shame on President Obama, House Speaker Pelosi, and every congressman and senator in the March 2010 Congress,” Cox concluded.

As a result of her narrow win, Giffords did increase her visibility in the area. She was shot while conducting voter reach out at a Safeway. The congresswoman called the event, Congress On Your Corner.”

According to the Washington Post, “a look at a longer video of the August 2010 event, provided by House Majority PAC, makes clear that Kelly was arguing that Giffords had presented herself as a “hero” for backing Obama agenda items such as the national health care overhaul.

The full version of Kelly’s 2010 remarks:

“Gabrielle Giffords is a big-spending, San Francisco liberal. That’s what Gabrielle Giffords is. And she has the gall to talk about us as extreme. Extreme! Did any of you vote for the government takeover of health care? I didn’t think so! Did any of you decide that the government should run the energy sector? Double the debts, double the deficits, double the unemployment? No! Giffords did that. And now she stands there with that smile and pretends to be some kind of hometown hero. She’s a hero of nothing. She’s brought bankruptcy to this nation. And we are going to bring unemployment to her.”

Polls show Barber and Kelly in a dead heat in the CD8 Special Election.

NFIB Endorses Jesse Kelly in Arizona CD8 Special Election

Influential Small-Business Association Supports Candidate with Trusted Small-Business Experience

WASHINGTON, D.C., May 31, 2012 —The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small-business association, today endorsed Jesse Kelly (R) to represent Arizona’s 8th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives.  Kelly is seeking to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

“Jesse Kelly is the clear voice for small business in this race,” said Lisa Goeas, NFIB Vice President, Political and Grassroots.  “In stating that his run for Congress is motivated by three principles: lowering taxes, strengthening the economy, and fostering a climate that allows businesses to grow, Jesse is walking in line with the very motto that NFIB is founded upon.  Jesse Kelly will fight for affordable health-care solutions for small-business owners, and will work to get our country back on the path toward fiscal responsibility and economic prosperity.”

“Our members in Congressional District 8 spoke loud and clear when asked which candidate NFIB should support in this race,” said Farrell Quinlan, NFIB State Director for Arizona.  “Jesse Kelly received an overwhelming vote of support from NFIB members in his district, making him the clear small-business choice for Congress.”

NFIB has nearly 2,000 members in the 8th Congressional District, alone. Kelly’s endorsement comes from NFIB’s Save America’s Free Enterprise Trust (SAFE), the association’s political action committee, and is based on positions regarding key small-business issues including health care, taxes, and labor and regulatory issues.

Small-business owners and their employees vote in high numbers and are known for actively recruiting friends, family members and acquaintances to go to the polls. NFIB will encourage its members in Arizona to help turn out the small-business vote for Kelly this coming Special Election Day, June 12.

# # #

NFIB is the nation’s leading small business association, with offices in Washington, D.C. and all 50 state capitals. Founded in 1943 as a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, NFIB gives small and independent business owners a voice in shaping the public policy issues that affect their business. NFIB’s powerful network of grassroots activists sends their views directly to state and federal lawmakers through our unique member-only ballot, thus playing a critical role in supporting America’s free enterprise system. NFIB’s mission is to promote and protect the right of our members to own, operate and grow their businesses. More information is available online at www.NFIB.com/newsroom.