FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 16, 2012
CONTACT: Adam Deguire
MEMORANDUM
In the race for the Republican nomination in Congressional District 5, former Congressman Matt Salmon continues to pull away from his only remaining opponent in every major element of the campaign – polling, fundraising, and endorsements. Since announcing his bid to return to Congress, Salmon has waged an aggressive campaign that has highlighted his experience, proven record and conservative principles as a public servant. As a result, two previous candidates have since dropped out of the race and Salmon has increased his lead over his remaining opponent according to the most recent poll. Furthermore, Salmon’s surge of momentum has also allowed him to outperform his opponent in fundraising by a 3 to 1 margin, and earned him several more endorsements from community officials, conservative leaders and pro-business groups.
Polling
Arizona Opinion conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in the newly drawn Congressional District 5 on February 8-9, 2012. Here are the findings:
- Head to head: Salmon maintains a commanding 30 point lead over his opponent in the race for the Republican nomination, with 43.0% of respondents supporting Salmon versus 13.8% supporting his opponent.
- Name awareness: Salmon maintains a significant name ID advantage over his opponent, with 57.7% of respondents recognizing and responding to his name versus 24.7% recognizing and responding to the name of his opponent.
- Trusted to balance the budget: By over a 2 to 1 margin, 30.8% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to balance the federal budget, versus 13.5% for his opponent.
- Trusted to repeal Obamacare: By over a 2 to 1 margin, 31.8% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to repeal Obamacare, versus 13.5% for his opponent.
- Trusted to secure the borders: By nearly a 3 to 1 margin, 32.3% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to secure the borders, versus 10.8% for his opponent.
- Trusted to fight against special interests: By nearly a 3 to 1 margin, 32.0% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to stand up to Washington insiders, versus 11.0% for his opponent.
Methodology
Arizona Opinion is an Arizona-based consulting firm with survey and other data-based research and focus groups and experience dating back to 1978. Dr. Margaret Kenski has served as a pollster for the Arizona Republican Party, Senator Jon Kyl, Congressmen Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, and Jeff Flake, Governors Jane Dee Hull and Fife Symington, and numerous other state and local candidates. The survey had a margin of error of ±4.8% and over 85% of those surveyed said they were certain to vote in this August’s primary election.
Fundraising
- Superior fundraising: Salmon has now raised a total of more than $500,000 for his campaign to return to Congress, out raising his opponent the past two consecutive quarters (3rd and 4th of 2011), including out raising him $152,515 to $52,434 according to the latest finance report.
- COH advantage for the primary: Salmon currently has over $305,000 cash on hand, giving him a nearly $85,000 advantage over his opponent in money available to spend on the primary election.
- Gaining momentum among donors: Salmon has now received contributions from over 1,200 individual donors, with more than 500 of those contributing in the last three months of 2011.
Endorsements
- Endorsed by local leaders: Salmon has been endorsed by East Valley mayors Scott Smith (Mesa), Jay Tibshraeny (Chandler), Hugh Hallman (Tempe), Gail Barney (Queen Creek), John Insalaco (Apache Junction), 4 Mesa Councilmembers, 2 Chandler Councilmembers, 7 East Valley state legislators, and Arizona Congressmen David Schweikert and Trent Franks.
- Widely supported by conservatives: Salmon has received endorsements from nationally prominent conservatives including Senators John Thune (South Dakota), Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), Congressman Darrell Issa (CA-49), Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and nationally recognized conservative groups like Club for Growth PAC and Team America PAC.
- Backed by pro-business organizations: Salmon is supported by numerous pro-business organizations including the Associated General Contractors of Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association, and the National Association of REALTORS.
Conclusion
Former Congressman Matt Salmon remains in strong front-runner status to win the Republican nomination for Arizona’s Congressional District 5. His remaining opponent suffers from severe disadvantages in polling, fundraising and endorsements, and these challenges will be further exacerbated as other competitive primary elections begin to dominate the Arizona political environment. Without the ability to outspend Salmon dollar for dollar in voter contact, we believe that Salmon’s opponent will be unable to make up a 30 point deficit in the polls and overcome the name awareness disadvantage he currently holds among Republican primary voters.
In the remaining months before the primary election, Salmon will continue to aggressively campaign throughout the district utilizing a strong grassroots and earned media operation, and continue to showcase his superior fundraising abilities. Given these resources, Salmon can expect to continue his surge towards the all-important “50% plus 1″ formula for electoral victory.
###








