Update on AZ01 GOP Candidate Earn vs Burn Rates

In an earlier post, we provided an analysis of the campaign finance reports of Arizona’s CD-1 candidates. At the time, no information was available from the Shawn Redd campaign because the reports were filed manually with the Federal Elections Commission. Those reports are now available.

We also need to correct a number on another candidate campaign in which a typo occurred on the spreadsheet. That candidate’s financial health actually improved significantly with the correction. Read our updated analysis below.

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An analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by CD-1 candidates shows some interesting financial trends taking place.

Looking exclusively at the first quarter period of time, we calculated daily earn and burn rates for each of the campaigns effective March 31st. There were 91 days in 1Q.

These rates have been adjusted based on the number of days the campaign has been operating for the 1st quarter period of time. In addition, we calculated the burn rate for each candidate to the Primary Election date. There are 152 days until the Primary Election from March 31st. This is the amount of money the campaign has left to spend on a daily basis to get to August 30th leaving no money left in the bank.

For this assessment, all reports are now available and are pro-rated accordingly to the days a candidate has been in the race. For example, Wendy Rogers has been in the race for 78 days and Carlyle Begay has only been in the race 22 days. The earn and burn rates are adjusted accordingly.

Here are the updated/corrected numbers:

Candidate Campaign Raised 1Q Days in 1Q Daily Earn Rate 1Q Spent    1Q Daily Burn Rate 1Q Daily Earn vs Burn Gap Cash on Hand 1Q Days to Primary Daily Burn Rate to Primary Election
Babeu $157,734 91 $1,733 $148,157 $1,628 $105 $259,351 152 $1,706
Begay $39,905 22 $1,814 $513 $23 $1,791 $39,392 152 $259
Bennett $80,027 91 $879 $55,633 $611 $268 $195,691 152 $1,287
Gowan $169,390 91 $1,861 $70,978 $780 $1,081 $238,468 152 $1,569
Kiehne $48,980 91 $538 $113,933 $1,252 -$714 $513,615 152 $3,379
Redd $1,800 91 $20 $7,615 $84 -$64 $1,785 152 $12
Rogers $144,209 79 $1,825 $51,809 $656 $1,170 $100,765 152 $663

 

As a prior post pointed out, Paul Babeu has the highest burn rate followed by Gary Kiehne. Excluding Begay’s campaign due to the short period of time, both Wendy Rogers and Ken Bennett have the lowest burn rates.

For the entire quarter, Wendy Rogers was the most financially disciplined candidate while Paul Babeu was the biggest spender and Gary Kienhe ran the largest deficit.

We corrected the amount raised for Wendy Rogers which resulted in a significant boost to her daily earn rate. That still resulted in David Gowan barely remaining at the top of the list with a daily earn rate of $1,861 but moved Wendy Rogers into second place at a daily earn rate of $1,825. Paul Babeu trailed at a daily earn rate of $1,733 but if we include Carlyle Begay given the short amount of time he has been in the race, Babeu drops to 4th place.

One thing to note about fundraising for these candidates is the ease of access to PAC and lobbyist money. As Speaker of the House David Gowan has tremendous influence over the outcome of legislation. Many lobbyists have bills making their way through the Arizona House and that means a high level of interaction and access with the Speaker. A review of Gowan’s report reveals that many lobbyists have contributed to his campaign. It also shows that he has received $16,250 in PAC contributions – the top recipient of all the candidates. Carlyle Begay placed 2nd in PAC contributions at $12,000 while Babeu ran 3rd with $5,000. Ken Bennett bottomed the list with $1,000 in PAC contributions. Gary Kiehne, Shawn Redd and Wendy Rogers received no money from PAC’s

Looking at available money, Gary Kiehne has the highest amount available to spend on a daily basis heading into the August 30th Primary Election. It should be noted that Kiehne has loaned his campaign the most money out of all the other campaigns with $50,000 being fronted to the campaign during the 1st quarter and $678,072 being loaned during the election cycle to date.

Candidates with a larger gap between earn and burn rates this early in a campaign are more likely to be in better financial shape heading into an election. Obviously, candidates should be raising more money then they are spending to avoid draining their resources or running a deficit. Here’s an UPDATED graph of those rates showing the daily gap between each candidate’s earn and burn rates:

AZ01 Candidate Daily Earn & Burn Rates

 

In this graph, Gary Kiehne has an inverted burn to earn gap of -$714. Shawn Redd’s gap is now included in this analysis and shows he spent more money than he took in during IQ with a daily gap of -$64. Paul Babeu’s campaign is barely staying ahead of his burn rate at $105/day. Ken Bennett may have a lower burn rate but his earn rate is also very low giving him a gap of $268. That leaves Wendy Rogers and David Gowan with the healthiest gaps. Gowan’s gap amounts to $1,081 but after a correction in the data, Rogers’ gap grows to $1,170 making her the candidate with the healthiest daily earn-to-burn rate. (Carlyle Begay was excluded from this 1Q analysis because the campaign had only been in the race for 22 days which is below a 30-day billing cycle for spending money.)

  • Paul Babeu spent $0.94 for every dollar he raised
  • Ken Bennett spent $0.70 for every dollar he raised
  • David Gowan spent $0.42 for every dollar he raised
  • Gary Kiehne spent $2.33 for every dollar he raised
  • Wendy Rogers spent $0.36 for every dollar she raised

Our conclusion: David Gowan raised the most money although much of it was from lobbyists and PAC’s. Paul Babeu spent the most amount of money and his daily earning rate is barely keeping ahead of his daily spending rate. Gary Kiehne ran the largest deficit spending for the quarter having raised the least amount of money but loaning the campaign the most amount of money. Ken Bennett raised the least amount of money for 1Q and spends nearly 70% of what he raises. Carlyle Begay has not been in the race long enough to derive an accurate assessment. Shawn Redd’s financial reports eliminate him from the analysis as an outlier. While Wendy Rogers placed 3rd in fundraising, she has the healthiest daily earn vs. burn rate showing her to be the most financially disciplined candidate in the race for CD-1.

Here are links to each candidate’s campaign finance reports on the FEC:

Paul Babeu
Carlyle Begay
Ken Bennett
David Gowan

Gary Kiehne
Shawn Redd
Wendy Rogers

Analysis: Earn and Burn Rates for AZ01 Candidates

An analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by CD-1 candidates shows some interesting financial trends taking place.

Looking exclusively at the first quarter period of time, we calculated daily earn and burn rates for each of the campaigns effective March 31st. There were 91 days in 1Q.

These rates have been adjusted based on the number of days the campaign has been operating for the 1st quarter period of time. In addition, we calculated the burn rate for each candidate to the Primary Election date. There are 152 days until the Primary Election from March 31st. This is the amount of money the campaign has left to spend on a daily basis to get to August 30th leaving no money left in the bank.

For this assessment, it should be noted that the FEC shows no 1Q report for Shawn Redd. Also, Wendy Rogers has been in the race for 78 days and Carlyle Begay has only been in the race 22 days.

Here are the numbers:

Campaign Raised 1Q Days in 1Q Earn Rate 1Q Spent    1Q Burn Rate 1Q Earn vs Burn Gap Cash on Hand 1Q Days to Primary Burn Rate to Primary Election
Babeu $157,734 91 $1,733 $148,157 $1,628 $105 $259,351 152 $1,706
Begay $39,905 22 $1,814 $513 $23 $1,791 $39,392 152 $259
Bennett $80,027 91 $879 $55,633 $611 $268 $195,691 152 $1,287
Gowan $169,390 91 $1,861 $70,978 $780 $1,081 $238,468 152 $1,569
Kiehne $48,980 91 $538 $113,933 $1,252 -$714 $513,615 152 $3,379
Redd
Rogers $114,209 79 $1,446 $51,809 $656 $790 $100,765 152 $663

 

As a prior post pointed out, Paul Babeu has the highest burn rate followed by Gary Kiehne. Excluding Begay’s campaign due to the short period of time, both Wendy Rogers and Ken Bennett have the lowest burn rates.

For the entire quarter, Wendy Rogers was the most frugal candidate while Paul Babeu was the biggest spender.


David Gowan topped the list when it comes to daily earn rate followed by Paul Babeu and Wendy Rogers. Again, we excluded Carlyle Begay given the short amount of time he has been in the race.

Finally, Gary Kiehne has the highest rate available of money to spend heading into the August 30th Primary Election. It should be noted that Kiehne has loaned his campaign the most money out of all the campaigns with $50,000 during the 1st quarter and $678,072 election cycle to date.

Candidates with a larger gap between earn and burn rates this early in a campaign are more likely to be in better financial shape heading into an election. Obviously, candidates should be raising more money then they are spending to avoid draining their resources or running a deficit. Here’s a graph of those rates compared against each other for each of the candidates:

EarnvsBurnRates

In this graph, Gary Kiehne has an inverted burn to earn gap of -$714. Paul Babeu is barely staying ahead of his burn rate at $105. Ken Bennett may have a lower burn rate but his earn rate is also very low giving him a gap of $268. That leaves David Gowan and Wendy Rogers (we are excluding Begay and Redd) with much healthier gaps. Gowan’s gap amounts to $1,081 and Rogers’ gap amounts to $790.

Note: When/if we receive FEC data for Shawn Redd, we will add this to the analysis.

Gowan leads Q1 Fundraising in CD 1; Carlyle Begay falters

For all of the narrative that members of the media and his opponents seek to destroy his candidacy with, Arizona House Speaker David Gowan led all Republican challengers in fundraising for the first quarter of 2016. Gowan’s fundraising number for Q1 was extremely impressive because of the fact that he has not been able to fundraise from Capitol lobbyists during the (still-ongoing) Arizona legislative session.

Here were the amounts raised in the first quarter from the major Republican candidates in CD 1:

  1. David Gowan                 $169,390.27
  2. Paul Babeu                     $157,734.35
  3. Wendy Rogers               $144,209.00
  4. Ken Bennett                   $ 80,027.00
  5. Gary Kiehne                   $48,980.47
  6. Carlyle Begay                 $39,906.00

Here are some notes about the first quarter of fundraising in CD 1:

  • A significant amount of Wendy Rogers’ Q1 funds came from out-of-state donors.
  • Paul Babeu’s burn rate is mind blowing, and his out-of-state funds are disproportionate to a candidate who claims to want to represent Arizona and CD 1. Though his scandals have not greatly hurt his fundraising so far, many donors are still waiting to see how long he can survive in the race before another significant story from his checkered past breaks against him.
  • For all the talk about how Carlyle Begay was going to raise upwards of $100,000 for the quarter, his haul was severely underwhelming and raised serious questions about his viability in a Republican primary. Most people have already noted that without the Arizona Republican Party’s exaggerated and drawn-out celebration of his party switch (masterminded by the then-Executive Director of the AZGOP, Chad Heywood-now Begay’s consultant), Begay would have no foothold in this primary. Simply put, Carlyle Begay is merely a product of a conflict of interest by the immediate-past ED of the AZGOP (as previously reported by the Yellow Sheet), and his fundraising numbers are reflecting this dark reality.
  • Ken Bennett raised a respectable amount of money, but not enough to break through into the presumed top-tier of contenders.
  • Gary Kiehne has the potential of challenging for the frontrunner’s position because of the shier amount of dollars that he has already lent himself. If he can run a disciplined campaign to the end of the primary, he has a shot a the Republican nomination.

POLL: The Republican Nominee for AZ01

Outraged, Lt Col Rogers calls on Sheriff Babeu to exit AZ-1 Congressional Race

Wendy Rogers

On Wednesday, Wendy Rogers called for her opponent, Sheriff Paul Babeu to drop out of the race for Arizona’s first congressional district.  Shocking new allegations of abuse at a boarding house in Massachusetts run by Sheriff Babeu were detailed in an expose Tuesday night by ABC 15.  

“Today I call on Sheriff Babeu to do the right thing. Step down from this race. You are an embarrassment to the Republican Party, the state of Arizona, and our nation. We deserve better,” said Rogers.  

On the tape, Sheriff Babeu can be heard comparing the school’s treatment of children to boot camp.  Rogers, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, had this to say, “I went through military officer training.  It built camaraderie, instilled honor, and made me the professional I am today.  My fellow veterans and I will not stand for Sheriff Babeu’s twisted attempt to justify cruelty to children.”

Rogers further explained, “Sheriff Babeu’s views are also completely at odds with what I have come to know as a foster parent and clinical social worker.  No child is hopeless. All children need and deserve compassion and understanding.”    

The Babeu campaign today released a statement saying, “These allegations prove nothing new.”  In response Rogers said, “His own campaign website touted his executive experience from having led this school as a qualification for elected office.  He held this as evidence of experience, while he knew EXACTLY what this school did.  He has lied to the voters about this, and continues to do so, even as this horrifying evidence comes to light.”

Senator Steve Smith Named Chairman of Sheriff Paul Babeu Congressional Campaign

Paul Babeu

Paul Babeu announced Wednesday he has named Arizona’s leading conservative legislator State Sen. Steve Smith as the sheriff’s congressional campaign chairman.

Smith, who represents a legislative district that covers a significant amount of the Congressional District 1, said he supports Babeu because of his unmatched record on combating illegal immigration and drug smuggling.

“Pinal County and all of Arizona has been blessed to have Paul Babeu fight to stem the tide of illegal immigration through our beautiful state and aggressively combat the drug cartels,” Smith said. “Sheriff Paul is an oath keeper, who does exactly what he promises and we need patriots like him in Washington.  I am proud to support Paul and help send a Sheriff to Congress.”

Babeu, the two-term Pinal County sheriff, is running for the open CD1 seat.

The Goldwater Institute and Arizona Conservative Coalition both ranked Smith as the top conservative legislator and Americans for Prosperity named Smith a “Champion of the Taxpayer.”

“I am honored to have Steve on this campaign and can think of no better champion for rural conservative values,” Babeu said. “His expertise and advice will be invaluable as we look to replace a liberal Democrat in CD1.”

David Gowan 1st CD-1 Candidate to Sign “Stop Common Core” Pledge

David Gowan

Proven Conservative & Constitutional Republican Signs Eagle Forum Pledge

Phoenix, AZ (October 8th, 2015) – Arizona Speaker of the House David Gowan became the first candidate in the race for Congressional District One to sign the Eagle Forum’s “Stop Common Core Pledge.”

“For me, this was an easy pledge to make because it was nothing more than a continuation of my history of opposing Common Core, no matter what it was called.” said Gowan.

The pledge commits its signers to opposing Common Core and limiting or eliminating various aspects of Common Core such as data collection, directed vocational training, and nationalized assessments.

“The Federal Government has no Constitutional authority when it comes to education, and Common Core represents nothing more than the next step in the federal takeover of our schools.” said Gowan, continuing “I believe that control of the schools ought to be a local matter, and I will fight against any efforts to give control to bureaucrats thousands of miles away from Arizona.”

Internal poll: Babeu opens with commanding lead

Paul Babeu

Just two days into his campaign for Congressional District 1, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu boasts a substantial lead against his competitors according to an internal poll released Thursday.

The poll, conducted Wednesday, surveyed 484 Republican primary voters. Babeu was the choice of 43 percent of respondents. Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett garnered 11 percent while businessman Gary Kiehne received support from 9 percent of respondents. Businessman Shawn Redd and House Speaker David Gowan followed with 2 percent each. A third of voters were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 4.45 percent.

After a high profile campaign rollout, the poll also found Republicans overwhelmingly approve of Paul Babeu. Sixty-eight percent viewed Babeu somewhat or very favorably. Just 14 percent saw him in an unfavorable light. And only 18 percent had no opinion.

When it comes to issues that are important to voters, immigration led the way. Nearly a third of respondents said immigration and border security was their No. 1 issue. Another 20 percent said the economy and budget issues were a top issue. Defense and veterans issues were the top concerns of 11 percent of respondents. Nine percent of voters said gun and property rights and another 9 percent said values and marriage were the most important issue.

“Paul Babeu is well-known in the district having served seven years as Pinal County sheriff and appearing on numerous local and national news programs,” campaign spokesman Barrett Marson said. “This poll shows he’s not only well known but he is liked throughout the district and is positioned to take the Republican primary in August.”

Paul Babeu, 46, was first elected Pinal County Sheriff in 2008 and was voted by his peers as the 2011 Sheriff of the Year. A 20-year veteran of the Army National Guard, he served in the Iraq War and commanded 700 men in the Yuma Sector during Operation Jumpstart.

Monday Poll: The Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Arizona House Speaker David Gowan To Run For Congress

David Gowan

ARIZONA SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE DAVID GOWAN TO RUN FOR U.S. CONGRESS
Conservative Republican with Proven Record will make D.C. “Respect the West”

Phoenix, AZ (October 5th, 2015) – Arizona Speaker of the House David Gowan today announced his candidacy for Arizona’s First Congressional District.

David Gowan“It has been my sincere honor to serve the people of Arizona in the House of Representatives for the past seven years.  Since first taking office in 2009, I have focused on the conservative values instilled in me by my father and refined through years of fighting for our shared Arizonan values.”

“While most candidates rely on promises of what they will do, I prefer to be judged on my conservative record and leadership.  As your Congressman, I will continue working to shrink the size and scope of government, I will fight to restore our Constitutional rights, I will make securing our borders the priority it ought to be, and I will work to ensure that our government’s focus is on getting out of the way of the private sector so that we can unleash our economy and create the millions of jobs we need to get our nation back on track.  I will also stand for our values, work to defund Planned Parenthood, protect innocent life, defend our family values, and stop Common Core.”

Speaker Gowan continued, “We’ve got a good field of nice candidates who will claim they are the greatest conservatives of all time.  Some have no record, some have small records, and some have mixed records – the biggest difference between us all is that with me, the voters know they can rely on my campaign promises to be kept, and my positions here in Arizona to be exactly the same once I get to Washington, D.C.”

David Gowan was first elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, where he took the lead in organizing the legislature’s conservatives into a meaningful and often decisive force.  He founded the Liberty Caucus which grew from five members into the success it is today.  In fact, the entire current elected House and Senate leadership are members of the Liberty Caucus.

Gowan has an extensive conservative record and boasts the best record of any candidate running, on issues like spending, taxes, protecting life, 2nd Amendment rights, state sovereignty, border security, school choice, fighting Common Core, and more.  He is also the only candidate running who has proven he knows how to shrink government.  In fact, the $11.2 Billion state budget he inherited is now $2 Billion smaller 7 years later.

David Gowan is Southern Arizona’s first Speaker in approximately 30 years.  He and his wife Jessica, and their two boys live in Cochise County.