What If Kirkpatrick Didn’t Run For Senate After All?

Has it occurred to anyone that Ann Kirkpatrick has no reason to run for US Senate against John McCain other than to oblige her party and fill a gap in the shrinking Democrat talent pool?

Honestly, I don’t see how she could remain in that race given the insurmountable gap in polling and funding between she and John McCain.

Unless, this was all just a ploy to preempt Kyrsten Sinema from jumping in the Senate race.

Kirkpatrick would be a political fool to leave a district in which she has already beat one of the more well known candidates backed by the NRCC establishment. Why would she take on a bigger risk against McCain when she already proved she can play it safe and win re-election?

Perhaps, jumping in a Senate race was a tactic to generate a little excitement with the hope of converting that buzz to some campaign cash?

If Kirkpatrick was politically smart, she’d do the same thing as Matt Salmon, Paul Gosar and David Schweikert and stay right where she is.

McCain will win his Primary. I can speak from personal experience from the losing side – been there done that, got the t-shirts to prove it.

Ann Kirkpatrick knows she’s walking away from a relatively safe district into a danger zone by taking on McCain in a general election. If she were wise, she’d stop listening to the consultants and party elites who are trying to offer her up as yet another political sacrifice to Arizona voters.

I’m willing to bet she stays right where she is.

Andy Tobin Campaign Launches Robocall Against Ann Kirkpatrick On Her Support For Painful Social Security Cuts, Taxes

Andy Tobin

Kirkpatrick admitted in this week’s debate that she supports raising taxes on hardworking Arizonans and dangerously altering seniors’  benefits formula.

The Tobin campaign launched a new robocall campaign Thursday morning designed to educate Arizona’s seniors on Ann Kirkpatrick’s admission that she supports painful tax increases and benefit alterations with Social Security. (Listen here.)

On Tuesday night in Marana, Ann Kirkpatrick said that she supported raising the cap on contributions, which would mean more taxes for Arizona’s families and businesses. (Arizona Daily Star, 10/15/14)

She also said she supported altering the formula used to pay out the hard-earned benefits for seniors.

“Ann Kirkpatrick finally admitted to the voters on Tuesday that she will have no problem voting for a plan that would raise taxes on Arizonans and take an axe to the current formula that pays seniors their hard-earned benefits,” campaign manager Bill Cortese said in a statement. “Andy Tobin believes in preserving the promise of Social Security and leaving seniors’ benefits alone, and he refuses to raise taxes even further on Arizona’s hard-working families and small businesses.”

See below for the transcript of the new robocall.

Hi. I’m calling with the Andy Tobin for Congress campaign to make sure you heard what our Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick said the other night at a debate about Social Security.

After all the wasteful spending Kirkpatrick and President Obama have done in Washington, now they want to pay for it all on the backs of our seniors.

Kirkpatrick said she supports raising Social Security taxes, which would hit hard working Arizonans and small businesses.

And she supports a risky plan that would change the Social Security benefit formula.

Andy Tobin opposes Kirkpatrick’s irresponsible Social Security plan and will take the lead in Congress to protect both Social Security and Medicare. Andy Tobin opposes raising the retirement age, cutting benefits and raising taxes on seniors.

The choice in this election is pretty clear. Kirkpatrick is just wrong for Arizona and for seniors.

This call was paid for by Andy Tobin for Congress. 928-607-3802.

Ann Kirkpatrick Repeatedly Picks Party Over National Security

Andy Tobin

Whether it’s transferring terrorists to U.S. soil or extending rights to foreign combatants, Kirkpatrick votes the party line. 

As the War on Terror continues in the Middle East against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, Arizonans are looking for their representatives in Congress to do everything they can to keep them safe and secure back home.

In Washington, Ann Kirkpatrick chooses to secure the party line instead.

When it came time to choose between defending President Obama or making a statement about America’s security priorities, Kirkpatrick chose to defend the President when she voted against condemning him for breaking the law with the Bowe Bergdahl prisoner transfer. (Roll Call #485, 9/9/2014)

When Nancy Pelosi asked her to, Kirkpatrick voted to allow the transfer of terrorist detainees from Guantanamo Bay to American soil. (Roll Call #254, 5/30/14)

She even voted to extend Constitutional rights to foreign terrorists who are not U.S. Citizens captured within the United States. (Roll Call #228, 6/13/2013)

“Ann Kirkpatrick has had plenty of opportunities to prove her commitment to national security, but time and time again she votes with Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, even when its against Arizona’s interests,” Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese said in a statement. “With everything going on abroad, Arizonans deserve to know why Kirkpatrick wants Guantanamo Bay detainees to be transferred and tried within the United States and why she wants to extend Constitutional rights to foreign terrorists.”

NRCC Launches New Ads in Arizona’s CD-1 and CD-2

Two new ads just launched in Arizona’s first and second congressional districts. The National Republican Congressional Committee posted these on their independent expenditure YouTube channel. We thought you’d appreciate them.

Also note that Republicans are now messaging a strong national security theme with voters.

First the AZ01 ad:

And the AZ02 ad:

AZ01 Poll: Andy Tobin Leads Ann Kirkpatrick by 8 Points

In the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District, challenger Andy Tobin holds a substantial 8 point lead over incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, 51 percent to 43 percent, demonstrating a clear path to victory for Tobin.

The poll, taken September 2-4, was conducted by Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected pollsters in the country who has experience accurately polling in Arizona (see attached memo for full analysis).

Tobin holds a strong 7 point advantage among Independents, and is attracting significant cross-over appeal, earning 18 percent of the vote among registered Democrats. President Obama is very unpopular in the district, with a 57 percent disapproval rating, as is the Affordable Care Act (58 percent disapprove).

“The data speaks for itself: Ann Kirkpatrick’s record has caught up to her, and voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District are looking for a new voice to represent them in Congress,” said Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese. “Arizonans clearly see Kirkpatrick as part of the problem in Washington and are looking to Andy Tobin for a fresh start.”

Some of the key findings:

Congressional Ballot
Tobin: 51%
Kirkpatrick: 43%
Undecided: 6%

Obama Job Approval
Disapprove: 57%
Approve: 38%

Generic Ballot
Republican: 50%
Democrat: 42%

Kirkpatrick Reelect
Ready For Someone New: 53%
Kirkpatrick Deserves Reelection: 35%

Affordable Care Act
Disapprove: 58%
Approve: 39%

Governor’s Race in AZ-01
Ducey: 47%
DuVal: 34%

Kevin McCarthy: Three House Seats In Play In Arizona

Wednesday, Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was on the Hugh Hewitt Show with Congressman John Campbell. McCarthy and Campbell both gave a few minutes to assessing US House races across the country and began their conversation with our Arizona.

According to Majority Leader McCarthy, Arizona has three congressional races in play and likely pickups.

Top of the list is CD-1 where Andy Tobin is challenging Kirkpatrick; CD-2 where Martha McSally is coming on strong against Ron Barber and finally CD-9 where Wendy Rogers has a good chance of defeating Kyrsten Sinema in the General Election.

What this means is Republican Congressional leadership is engaged in what is happening here in Arizona.  Don’t be surprised if the NRCC throws some resources – money, ads, logistic support, endorsements, etc. – in order to ensure success in winning these three congressional House seats.

Here’s the transcript from Wednesday’s Hugh Hewitt Show:

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy:  Arizona-1, Kirkpatrick seat, this is an R+4, meaning it leans a Republican seat. She has been in one term within here. I think it’s a great opportunity. You’ve got Andy Tobin, they just had their primary, it just got determined. Andy is a conservative over there in the state legislature, actually was the speaker, great individual on all the tough issues. He’s led so many conservative movements there. The second is Arizona-2. This is Barber’s seat, currently R+3. Martha McSally, now Martha came last time less than 1,200 votes from winning the seat. Martha is the first female pilot in combat. She flew the A-10, remarkable woman, served our country so well. She would make such a great member. Those two in Arizona, you’ve got another one in Arizona, I’d say Arizona-9. We’ve got Wendy Rogers is our candidate again against Sinema. She’s a freshmen. This is R+1. All three of those are in play.

To ensure victory this November, let’s make sure we get out and work hard to get these fine candidates elected.

Andy Tobin: The Kirkpatrick Plan: Gut Our Schools

Andy Tobin

While Andy Tobin Was Joining With Democrats and Republicans to Protect Our Schools, Kirkpatrick Was Playing Partisan Politics

Andy Tobin today criticized Ann Kirkpatrick for failing to support a bipartisan solution he helped pass to protect our schools in Arizona and balance the budget, pointing out that under her plan, cuts to our schools would have skyrocketed.

Tobin was chief sponsor of Proposition 100, a bipartisan measure passed with 65 percent of the vote in 2010. The proposal, which Tobin sent to the ballot, was supported by a broad, bipartisan coalition including the education and business communities to protect funding for schools, public safety and health and human services.

However, Ann Kirkpatrick took a partisan approach and opposed the measure, offering no solutions to protect school funding during Arizona’s recession and budget crisis. In fact, even the Democrat who replaced Kirkpatrick in the state Legislature after she resigned to run for Congress, State Rep. Tom Chabin, voted with Tobin for this bipartisan, common-sense approach.

“I welcome a discussion about education and schools in this campaign,” Tobin said. “This race provides a clear contrast. As a father of five children who attended public schools, I’m proud to have helped lead bipartisan efforts to protect school funding, keep Arizona tuition low, provide additional dollars to our universities and community colleges, all while balancing our budget. I know Ann Kirkpatrick and her friends in Washington can print money, but in our state we have to act responsibly. When Arizona needed her, Kirkpatrick opposed our bipartisan plan to protect education funding and balance our budget.”

Arizona Law Enforcement Supports Andy Tobin

Andy Tobin

The support for Andy Tobin’s Congressional Campaign within the Arizona law enforcement community has tremendous support and continues to gain momentum.

Four Sheriffs from Arizona’s First Congressional District have announced their endorsement of Tobin, citing his proven leadership in fighting to secure the border and supporting policies to keep Arizonans safe. 

Sheriffs Allred, Sheahan, Richards and Mascher join Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who endorsed the campaign in October. Additionally, Tobin’s congressional campaign received endorsements from The Arizona Police Association and The Phoenix Law Enforcement Association.
“I am pleased to join my fellow sheriffs in supporting Andy Tobin for Congress,” said Graham County Sheriff P.J. Allred. “It’s important to have a proven fighter for rural Arizona law enforcement in Washington. That is why I am endorsing him for United States Congress in my district.”
“Andy Tobin has been a leader in Arizona State government for years,” said Mohave County Sheriff Tom Sheahan. “I am fully supporting Andy in his bid to become a member of the United States Congress. Andy Tobin will bring that energetic leadership to congress that is presently lacking, especially in the 1st Congressional District of Arizona. Andy will make an excellent congressman.”
“I have known Speaker Tobin for many years,” said Retired Coconino County Sheriff Joe Richards (1960-2004). “As Sheriff of Coconino County for more than 40 years, I am very familiar with the concerns and needs of rural Arizonans. I have followed Andy’s entire legislative career, and I am wholeheartedly convinced that he will faithfully represent the needs of Coconino County residents and all rural Arizonans in Washington. It is for these reasons that I am endorsing Andy Tobin for Congress.”
“As a law enforcement professional, I believe Andy Tobin understands the challenges we face daily and supports our objectives,” said Yavapai County Sheriff Scott Mascher. “Andy Tobin has been a consistent advocate for the law enforcement issues faced in Arizona. I am pleased to endorse his campaign.”
“Andy has a proven record of fighting to enforce the law and protect Arizonans from illegal drug cartels and human smuggling,” said Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu. “We need more people in Washington who have stood tall against illegal immigration and understand its negative effects not only on Arizona but the entire country. As the Sheriff of Pinal County, I see the consequences of the federal government’s refusal to secure our border everyday. I’m confident that Andy Tobin is the only person in this race with the experience, record and the commitment to public safety and border security. That’s why I am endorsing Speaker Tobin for U.S. Congress.”

“Like most Americans, law enforcement and all public safety personnel hold a special place in my heart,” said Speaker Andy Tobin. “My father is a 22 year veteran of the New York City Police Department. I carry the values he instilled in my siblings and myself with me to this day. To have the support of Sheriffs Allred, Babeu, Mascher, Richards and Sheahan will go a long way toward securing our borders and serving rural Arizonans. My sincerest thanks to these great Sheriffs and to all public safety professionals for their daily sacrifice.”

Andy Tobin has demonstrated his unwavering commitment to Arizonians which has earned him the respect and endorsement of our community at large.  We can count on him to represent us in Congress with consistent conservative values and conviction.  

Adam Kwasman releases campaign ad in race for AZ01

Kwasman for Congress

Touts Conservative Record, Arpaio Endorsement

Oro Valley, AZ – Republican Congressional Candidate Adam Kwasman released his first TV ad of the campaign today. Kwasman’s conservative voting record along with his Congressional platform are highlighted throughout the thirty second advertisement.

“I’ve been very encouraged at the reception my campaign has been receiving across the First Congressional District,” Kwasman said.  “With early voting set to commence, the time is right to begin the next phase of my campaign.”

The ad will appear on cable systems across the entire district. The Republican primary will be held on August 26.

Audio text of ad:

Adam KwasmanI’m Adam Kwasman and I approve this message.

Male Announcer:  There is a new generation of leaders emerging in Arizona.

Adam Kwasman led the fight to stop the expansion of Obamacare here.

Voted to end Common Core.

Has received awards for his conservative leadership.

Now Kwasman is running for Congress

Sheriff Joe Arpaio endorsed Kwasman because Sheriff Joe knows Adam will say no to amnesty and work to secure our border.

 Adam Kwasman for Congress.  Standing Strong for Arizona.

 Watch Kwasman’s ad here:

YouTube Preview Image

For more information about Adam Kwasman‘s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.

Letter from Arizona Fraternal Order of Police to Gary Kiehne

PoliceLetter Kiehne