Anti-McCain Republicans Still Not Anti-McCain Enough to Defeat McCain

 
A quick review of the Primary Election numbers on the Republican US Senate Race shows that Senator John McCain had no real threat of losing the nomination, again.

John McCain

John McCain

I went back and reviewed the official canvass from 2010 and compared those numbers with yesterday’s unofficial election results.

Here’s the comparison:

August 24, 2010 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
JD Hayworth – 190,299 / 32.07%
Jim Deakin – 69,328 / 11.68%

August 30, 2016 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Kelli Ward – 190,618 / 39.21%
Alex Melusky – 26,805 / 5.51%
Clair Van Steenwyk – 17,649 / 3.63%
Assuming votes for any of the 2010 and 2016 challengers were “anti-McCain” votes, those votes were still not enough to overcome a re-nomination of McCain. However, those numbers rose in 2016.

2010 Primary
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
Anti-McCain – 259,627 / 43.75%

Kelli Ward

Kelli Ward

2016 Primary
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Anti-McCain – 235,072 / 48.35%

Of course, this assumes that voter registration and turnout models are the same (which they are not). As you can see, John McCain collected 82, 676 fewer votes than he did in 2010. He also lost 4.6% of his edge among Republican voters.

What does this mean moving forward?

John McCain will likely face his most difficult General Election ever.

Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick

In her last campaign finance reporting, Ann Kirkpatrick disclosed she has $2.3 Million in the bank. John McCain’s last report showed just over $5 Million cash on hand. Assuming he’s depleted a portion of that amount fending off Primary challengers, and, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has allocated funds to Arizona, this will be McCain’s toughest campaign.

If we also consider the “Trump Factor” and the division in the Arizona Republican Party, Arizona Republicans run a higher risk of losing this US Senate seat to Ann Kirkpatrick.

Not surprising, those voting for Donald Trump may not vote for John McCain and those voting for John McCain may not be voting for Donald Trump.

I still see a divided Republican Party in Arizona between those who learned from the 2012 Presidential race and those who didn’t.

Republicans in Arizona are not united, and it’s still to be seen if they will be on November 8th.

Uh Yeah, Dr. Kelli Ward Is Definitely Pro-Life

Sinister rumors started by the McCain campaign claim that Dr. Kelli Ward is not pro-life. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Here’s what pro-life leaders are saying about Dr. Kelli Ward:

Kelli Ward has received the powerful endorsement of the doctor who has been called the “Father of the Pro-Life Movement” as well as Arizona pro-life activist Christine Accurso.

Accurso said,

“John McCain has voted in favor of embryonic stem cell research. Dr. Kelli Ward is an outstanding pro-life leader, and I have been honored to watch her fight for the lives of the unborn on the Arizona Senate floor. Her passion, dedication, medical expertise, and commitment to solid pro-life principles are unwavering and the reason she has my vote! I endorse Kelli, and I urge all Arizonans to vote Kelli Ward for U.S. Senate!”

In May, Cathi Herrod, President of the Center for Arizona Policy set the record straight saying,

“For the record, Kelli Ward had a 100% pro-life voting record as a State Senator. Never wavered.”

Ward was endorsed in May by Phyllis Schlafly who successfully inserted the pro-life plank into the Republican platform at the 1976 Republican National Convention.

Dr. John Grady, a distinguished physician and surgeon and nationally recognized author and lecturer, said

“In the Arizona Senate, Kelli Ward had a 100% pro-constitution and pro-life record. In the U.S. Senate, Dr. Kelli Ward will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States. She will respect and defend the rights and dignity of all Americans — both born and unborn.”

Dr. Grady practiced in general medicine, surgery, and trauma and has delivered more than 3,000 babies. Dr. Grady was also the founder of the first state and national pro-life organizations. In 1966, seven years before Roe v. Wade, he authored the small book, Abortion – Yes or No, which became the most widely read treatise in the world on the subject and the primer for the pro-life movement.

Dr. Grady stated,

“There are many vital issues now before us, but the issue for which this nation will be judged by God is the wholesale slaughter of the unborn, with more than 50 million innocent unborn babies killed by abortion since 1973. If this nation is to survive, we must ensure that constitutional judges are appointed, especially to the Supreme Court. To do this we must have a strong majority of truly conservative Republican Senators who will uphold the Constitution. Senator Kelli Ward will be one of the loyal Americans who will lead that restoration. Sadly, John McCain’s record shows that he is not the solid conservative and uncompromising constitutional Republican we need in these critical times.”

Kelli said at a recent town hall meeting:

“Attack ads may twist my words out of context to paint a false picture of who John McCain wants you to think I am, but my 100% Pro-Life Voting Record tells who I really am and, most importantly, how I’ll vote in the United States Senate.

“I believe human life is a precious gift from God that begins at conception and deserves the full and equal protection of our laws.

“No matter how they slice and dice a quotation from a liberal newspaper, a 100% Pro-Life voting record tells everything you need to know.

“Senator McCain has voted dozens of times for Planned Parenthood funding and fetal tissue research. Now he wants to hide his record of supporting extreme leftist judges like the ACLU’s Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Breyer.

“McCain’s campaign rhetoric? Or my voting record? You decide.”

Senator Jeff Flake Discusses Donald Trump

This week, Senator Jeff Flake made an appearance on KAET’s Horizon with Ted Simons. The interview was focused on the presidential candidacy and campaign of Donald Trump.

It’s no secret that Senator Flake has serious reservations, like many Republicans, about supporting Donald Trump.

Watch as Senator Flake shares his views on Donald Trump.

KJZZ: Constantin Querard and Shane Wikfors discuss the schism in the Maricopa GOP

Steve Goldstein with the Phoenix NPR affiliate, KJZZ, interviewed Republican consultants Constantin Querard and Shane Wikfors today on his show Here and Now.

ConstantinQuerardQuerard and Wikfors who are both conservative Republicans, discussed the ongoing intra-party battle taking place at the Maricopa County GOP level for several years.

Shane WikforsAt the center of the battle is Arizona senior Senator John McCain and a handful of Republican precinct committeemen.

Listen as Querard details how this fight began, how it has affected the rank-and-file Republican activists and how it continues to play out in GOP in-fighting.
Wikfors, who is resigning his position as a Republican precinct committeeman, describes how the in-fighting is affecting the GOP brand and party’s ability to grow and raise money.

Poll: The Republican Race for US Senate

Time to Fire John McCain!

By Retire McCain

It is time for Arizona Senator John McCain to retire! After strings of broken promises and faux conservatism, it is time for fresh new bold conservative leadership for Arizona!

Dr. Kelli Ward: It’s official, I’m running!

KelliWard

Fellow Conservative,

It’s official. As you read this, I am in Lake Havasu announcing my campaign for the U.S. Senate!I’m ready to retire John McCain and give voters a fresh, courageous choice for new conservative leadership, and I hope you’ll join my effort. Together, we can disrupt the status quo and begin a new era of lower taxes, less spending, secure borders, and respect for the Constitution.I made this video for those of you who couldn’t be here tonight. Please take a minute to watch it. Tomorrow, we begin the fight to shake up Washington!

YouTube Preview Image
This campaign is just beginning, but it’s the support and encouragement of tens of thousands of Arizonans like you over the last few months that have made it possible.We can defeat McCain and the Beltway establishment. We can secure the border, balance the budget, and fully repeal ObamaCare. If we retire the out-of-touch Washington politicians like John McCain, we can stop Congress from doing government business in secret, like the “ObamaTrade” deal.If you send me to Washington, I won’t bow to the big-government lobbyists. I won’t surrender on our Constitution when the liberal politicians and judges try to re-write it. I will fight for our values, our country, and our Constitution.

But I can’t do it without you. I hope you join me and help fight to RETIRE McCain!

P.S. – If you can, chip in to help this campaign hit the ground running!

Sincerely,
WardSignature
Dr. Kelli Ward

What If Kirkpatrick Didn’t Run For Senate After All?

Has it occurred to anyone that Ann Kirkpatrick has no reason to run for US Senate against John McCain other than to oblige her party and fill a gap in the shrinking Democrat talent pool?

Honestly, I don’t see how she could remain in that race given the insurmountable gap in polling and funding between she and John McCain.

Unless, this was all just a ploy to preempt Kyrsten Sinema from jumping in the Senate race.

Kirkpatrick would be a political fool to leave a district in which she has already beat one of the more well known candidates backed by the NRCC establishment. Why would she take on a bigger risk against McCain when she already proved she can play it safe and win re-election?

Perhaps, jumping in a Senate race was a tactic to generate a little excitement with the hope of converting that buzz to some campaign cash?

If Kirkpatrick was politically smart, she’d do the same thing as Matt Salmon, Paul Gosar and David Schweikert and stay right where she is.

McCain will win his Primary. I can speak from personal experience from the losing side – been there done that, got the t-shirts to prove it.

Ann Kirkpatrick knows she’s walking away from a relatively safe district into a danger zone by taking on McCain in a general election. If she were wise, she’d stop listening to the consultants and party elites who are trying to offer her up as yet another political sacrifice to Arizona voters.

I’m willing to bet she stays right where she is.

POLL DANCING! Vote Now in Arizona Informer’s Poll on John McCain

As rumors of possible primary opponents grow, ArizonaInformer has decided to gauge the job approval rating of liberal, pro-Muslim Brotherhood Arizona Senator John McCain among grassroots conservatives.

CLICK HERE TO VOTE!

The poll will be closed tomorrow at 5pm AZ time.

 

MCCAIN COMES IN LAST IN FOUR-WAY RACE! Results of ArizonaInformer.com’s First AZ Senate Primary Poll

MCCAIN EHLast Friday we launched our first unscientific AZ Senate Primary poll and the results were interesting to say the least.   The poll was open for 24 hours and was open to all online voters.  While many are dismissive of online polls as unscientific, the importance of the poll is to gauge a general interest among Arizona activists who make phone calls, knock on doors, and are the most engaged in Arizona politics.  The primary purpose of these poll is to measure the probability of prospective campaigns and distinguish what we would believe to end up as an ‘also-ran’ versus true viability.

First, there were 730 ‘respondents’ to our poll but upon review of IP addresses and locations we knew there was rampant Paulbotesque ballot stuffing.  While we cannot say with certainty that there are not over 200 American citizens who can vote in Liberia, Moldova, The Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg, and a host of other nations — all which voted for McCain, we are going on the assumption that there was some nefarious double-voting/IP masking going on. Therefore to get a clearer picture we scrubbed all foreign IPs and multiple votes out of the tally as we know that many supporters use websites and programs such as Tor Browser that mask IPs to allow a person to vote multiple times from foreign IP addresses.  Once we removed the double votes and international IPs, we were left with 198 American respondents.

 

 

US voters McCain Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The breakdown was:

Rep. Salmon – 62 votes
Liberal Senator John McCain – 54 votes
Rep. Gosar – 51 votes
Rep Schweikert – 31 votes

 

 

We further narrowed down the results to include only Arizona voters (scrubbed down to 168 respondents) which paint a very bad picture for Team McCain if he is challenged with a viable primary candidate.  AZInformer poll AZ voters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While it shows that McCain and Rep Schweikert is ‘tied’ for last at 17% the hard numbers were as follows:

Rep. Salmon – 54 votes
Rep. Gosar – 53 votes
Rep Schweikert – 29 votes
Liberal Senator John McCain – 28 votes

Yes, the liberal pro-gun control, pro-Amnesty Senator has come in dead last in our 4-way online poll of the most politically active activists in Arizona.

Since last week’s poll, reports have come out that Arizona State Senator Kelli Ward is considering challenging McCain.  In our next poll, we will include Sen. Ward to gauge the grassroots support for the Conservative stalwart and keep an eye out for online ballot stuffing and scrub the results as we did here.

If the grassroots have a viable candidate to get behind, the 2016 Arizona Senate Primary may be more interesting and exciting than those of either the GOP’s or the Democratic Party’s nomination for president.

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ArizonaInformer.com‘s primary mission to inform Arizonans with the Truth and amplify the voice of Citizen Journalists — all with a heavy dose of snark.

#War