Susquehanna Polling & Research Poll Finds Bennett in the Lead
Phoenix, AZ, DEC. 10, 2013—Current Secretary of State and former Senate president Ken Bennett is the early favorite in the upcoming Republican primary for governor, according to the latest poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research. He leads with 20% of the vote in a potential 6-way primary against State Treasurer Doug Ducey (8%) and Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (6%), who is still an undeclared candidate. Both Christine Jones, former GoDaddy attorney and Andrew Thomas, former Maricopa County attorney, have 4% of the vote each. Al Melvin, a current state senator from Tucson is last at 2%, while 53% remain undecided.
The following points include key findings from the poll, which was conducted from November 27th to December 4, 2013:
- “Given the high undecided, it’s still way too early to predict a victory for anyone,” Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling & Research said. However, because Bennett is the favorite with the Latter Day Saint (LDS) community and the tea party, his support will be harder to crack than other business and establishment type candidates. On the other hand, both Ducey and Jones are expected to raise millions of dollars to increase their statewide name ID (not including IE’s), while Bennett is relying on public funds. To their advantage, both Ducey and Bennett have experience running a statewide race. However, there is also a chance they will split the conservative vote, opening the door for Jones. “In a six-way race with at least four of the six considered formidable, whichever candidate gets 25% to 35% of the vote could be the winner in a low turnout type election typical of primaries,” Lee said.
- Regardless of who wins the primary, two potential matchups of GOP candidates against presumptive Democratic nominee Fred DuVal shows both Bennett and Ducey with small leads over their Democrat opponent. Bennett leads DuVal 38-33, while Ducey leads DuVal 36-33. Both Bennett and Ducey do equally well against DuVal with Republicans, at 64-10 and 60-9, respectively. One of DuVal’s advantages could be the absence of a contested primary and the ability to harness resources, while a competitive and hotly contested GOP field could produce a damaged GOP nominee. “Nonetheless, the closeness of both races show that the governor’s race next November could be very competitive regardless of whom the nominees are,” Leslie Kelly, Regional Director of Business Development said.
- Another question that may give insights into the race is the poll’s right direction/wrong track question. Currently, 49% say Arizona is headed in the wrong direction, while 39% say the state is on the right track. This negative result could suggest a sentiment for change, or some discontent with the status quo which potentially benefits DuVal and/or the Democrats if they campaign as agents of change with a new direction for the state. Republicans say the state is going in the right direction by a 51-36 margin, while Democrats lean “wrong” track by a 66:20 or better than a 3:1 margin. Independents are nearly divided (42-49 in favor of wrong track).
This poll was conducted by Voter Survey Service, a division of Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Completed interviews were conducted November 27-December 4, 2013 with 600 registered voters, all of whom have vote history in past general elections (i.e., G2012, G2010 and/or G2008). Calls are made from a voter registration list purchased from our telephone list vendor, Labels & Lists, specializing in updated voter registration records for the state of Arizona. The sample frame was a landline telephone sample, with mixed modality including interviews conducted via live telephone agents using our professionally-trained survey research staff from our telephone call center in Harrisburg, as well as interviews conducted with automated polling software. Interviews are conducted randomly using probability-based sampling designs and closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of Arizona’s electorate is achieved based on geography, gender, age, party affiliation and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted to account for either non-response or coverage bias. This poll was not paid for by any political party, candidate for public office or other group and was conducted mainly for public
dissemination and internal analysis.
The margin of error for a sample size of 600 interviews is +/-4.00% at the 95% confidence level.
© Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. is a nationally known survey research and polling firm for both candidates for public office (GOP only) as well as various corporations, association clients and media outlets. Voter Survey Service (VSS) is a division of SP&R and conducts surveys in more than a dozen states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, West Virginia and others. SP&R recently served as the pollster for Mayor-elect Don Guardian in his historic upset victory in the 11/5 mayoral election in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
More information about our firm can be found at www.susquehannapolling.com.
But He Later Issues a Correction
PHOENIX – Robert Graham, Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, was not surprised that Democrat Ron Barber of Arizona’s Congressional District 2 announced today that he changed his mind this week and will be, in fact, running for reelection.
“Today we’re hearing more proof that Ron Barber has a problem making decisions, and that’s bad for the people of his district,” said Robert Graham, Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. “He shied away from telling voters who he supported for President, he’s painfully ambiguous about Obamacare, and he’s clearly having trouble planning out even just the next few months of his career.”
Fortunately for the people of Arizona’s CD 2, there is a solution to this Democrat’s wavering — in the form of the Republican nominee who will be prepared and ready to represent them in Congress. Whether Barber suffers the wrath of voters incensed with the failures of Obamacare, those frustrated with the stagnating economy, or those fed-up with federal government’s inability to control the porous southern border or their district, it’s clear that the Republican nominee will be a clear favorite in 2014.
PHOENIX – Robert Graham, Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, and a crowd of supporters welcomed Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico to a gathering at the home of Lynn and Jack Londen in Phoenix last night. The event raised over $50,000 for the Arizona Republican Party’s campaign for victory in 2014, and showcased one of the nation’s most popular Republican governors.
“We were honored that Governor Martinez accepted our invitation to come and meet us all and speak to those of us who have been watching her lead her state and support our Republican principles at the state level,” said Arizona Republican Party Chairman Robert Graham. “Governor Martinez is not only our nation’s first Latina governor, she’s a rising star in the Republican Party because she’s an effective chief executive, a true conservative, and an inspiring and engaging leader.”
Graham thanked the Chairman’s Circle of the Arizona Republican Party, consisting of a group of business and community leaders who participated in the event, and expressed his gratitude to Lynn and Jack Londen as well as the Host Committee members for supporting the event.
Chairman’s Circle: Jane and Bruce Ash, Lee Benson, Barbara and Jim Chamberlain, Vicki and Jim Click, Beth and Chad Coons, La and John Dawson, Marilyn and Jerry Hayden, Randy and Ken Kendrick, Ed Robson
Host Committee: Maryglenn and Rich Boals, Dorde “George” Cedic, Nan and Webb Crockett, Karen and Michael Preston Green, Donnell and Alan Heywood, Don Isaacson, Ann and John Kaites, Michele Larson, Sharon and Michael Lechter, Jeff Lindsey, Lynn and Jack Londen, Hon. Vernon Parker
PHOENIX – Robert Graham, Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, issued the following statement in commemoration of the 150th Anniversary of the Gettysburg Address, a historical speech given by President Abraham Lincoln in 1863 to dedicate the Gettysburg National Cemetery after a brutal battle during the Civil War.
PHOENIX – Arizona Republican Party Chairman Robert Graham today thanked the nearly 400 attendees at last night’s GOP Legislative Salute that raised $225,000 for the State Party. Keynote speaker Frank Luntz urged those in attendance to remember that the GOP’s strength comes from our authentic commitment to protecting taxpayers, our long-term approach to challenges, and our insistence on holding our government leaders accountable.
“What made this event so successful is the combination of our supporters working together, uniting behind our common goals, and sharing in our plans for victory in 2014,” said Robert Graham, Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. “We’ve proven in the short time since the last election that we’re newly energized, we’re committed to the mission of our Republican platform, and last night was a true demonstration there are tremendous resources now available to help us win.”
Governor Brewer spoke to the audience and received a standing ovation, and she thanked Chairman Graham for his leadership. Governor Gregory Mendoza of the Gila River Indian Community presented the AZGOP’s Lifetime Achievement Award to U.S. Senator Jon Kyl. Kyl retired early this year after a lifetime of service to the GOP, our state, and our country. The event featured a special tribute in honor of Speaker of the House Andy Tobin and Senate President Andy Biggs which can be viewed here.
The Arizona Republican Party also released the following video as part of the salute:
Congratulations to newly elected Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, Robert Graham!
Graham won the biennial contest with nearly 70% of the vote against little known Doug Little who offered very little threat and caused plenty of confusion leading up to today’s election.
Robert Graham actually entered the race in September, 2012 racking up endorsement after endorsement. From Senators McCain and Kyl to the rest of the congressional delegation to a plethora of state legislators, party elected officials and a phalanx of grassroots organizations, Graham’s unifying momentum was unstoppable heading into the final contest.
As we prepare for the upcoming election cycle, Robert Graham will bring new and energetic leadership to the Arizona Republican Party with his strong background in fundraising, strategic planning and commitment to deploying the latest campaign technology.
I am proud to be one of Robert Graham’s earliest and biggest supporters. He has my full support and I pledge to help him in moving our party forward and victorious!
Video that was recently taken at the AZGOP Chairman’s debate in Casa Grande featuring Doug Little and Robert Graham:
In addition, Robert Graham release a statement on Obama’s Executive Orders which were posted on his website – GrahamforArizona.com:
Robert Graham’s Statement on President Obama’s Recent Gun Proposals
PHOENIX — ”The recent tragedies that occurred in Colorado, Connecticut, and most recently California have shaken our communities. I grieve with the families and victims of these senseless acts of violence. Unfortunately, these acts have reminded us that evil will always exist in our world.”
“While I share the grief of the victims and have difficulty understanding these tragedies, I believe it is important that we have a deliberate and thoughtful discussion about preserving the constitutional rights of law-abiding Americans in our society. Outright bans have never and will never solve the violence that plagues our society. Instead, we need to have a discussion on the real issues that lead to these tragedies.”
“The Supreme Court has continued to rule that the Second Amendment unequivocally protects an individual’s “Right to Bear Arms.” Unfortunately, President Obama and his allies in the anti-gun establishment are using the recent tragedies to advance a political agenda that will infringe on the Constitutional rights of responsible gun owners.”
“As it was recently reported, President Obama is currently considering circumventing the Constitution and bypassing Congress by enacting a series of Executive Orders to unlawfully enact the Left’s radical agenda. I am strongly opposed to this effort and believe that the President should follow the legal and Constitutional legislative process and have this public debate in the halls of Congress – with all parties and stakeholders present.”
“I would remind the President that the recent tragedies do not represent another crisis that should be exploited, but rather see this as an opportunity to have an adult conversation about the proper role of firearms in our society while protecting the rights we as Americans hold dearly.”
“I will continue to support Second Amendment rights, and I urge our elected leaders, especially President Obama, to have a thorough and open discussion that follows the legislative process and is not enacted through a series of closed door Executive Orders.”
Word out of Kingman in Mohave County is that Robert Graham owned the room in the debate against Doug Little.
Doug Little arrived to the event late. Present were about 30-40 people which is a great turnout for a GOP candidate’s debate. Newly-elected Senator Kelli Ward was also in attendance.
Graham completely worked the room – talking to everyone before the lunch-meeting started.
Doug Little didn’t appear to move around the room that much only talking to a few people. Graham passed out shirts, buttons, flyers, yard signs and palm cards while Little made an effort to cover up Graham’s flyers on the tables with his own flyers.
Little spoke first. Graham spoke second. When Little launched into his speech, he attacked Graham’s age arguing that he thought Graham was too young to be Chairman. Little also attacked Graham for fighting for the defeat of a tax increase initiative in California - never mind the fact that Graham was extremely active supporting Arizona congressional candidates AND the effort to defeat the Open Primary initiative and Prop 204. Somewhere along the road, Little forgot to hold to the candidate agreement of staying above the negativity.
When Graham spoke, his ideas and vision were well received throughout the room. Compared to Doug Little, Robert Graham’s remarks, vision and ideas were night and day.
When both candidates took questions, someone asked about their thoughts on the United Nations. Little responded first and said that he did not believe that the US should withdraw from the UN. Most people in the room were shocked. Graham’s response to the same question was the opposite. That resulted with the entire room erupting in applause. (Little tried to take back his comments during the applause.)
When the debate adjourned, Little didn’t stay more than fifteen minutes while Graham remained until the last person departed.
It certainly appears that Graham has locked up Mohave County Republicans!
Don’t miss the next Arizona Republican Party Chairman debate tomorrow night – Tuesday, January 22 – to be held in Chandler at Tri-City Baptist Church located at 2211 W. Germann Road, Chandler. Debate starts at 7:30 PM. Be there if you care about the future of the Arizona Republican Party!
Sonoran Alliance has endorsed Robert Graham for Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
“Graham is a true friend of conservatism and his successful business career experience will take our party to the next level.
“PHOENIX — “Yesterday, Arizona Senate President Andy Biggs endorsed Robert Graham in his race for Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. Biggs, who has been named the #1 Friend of the Taxpayer by the Arizona Federation of Taxpayers and has been honored by the Goldwater Institute as a friend of liberty, has been instrumental in forging the state’s conservative strength.
“I believe the future of Arizona’s Republican Party is best served by selecting Robert Graham as its chairman,” said Biggs. “Graham is a true friend of conservatism and his successful business career experience will take our party to the next level. We expect great things from Robert. I hope you can join me in supporting his chairmanship.”
“Senator Biggs is a conservative visionary, someone who I deeply respect,” said Graham. “Andy’s advice and experience is essential to creating a strong state party structure. I am honored to have his support and counsel.”
About Robert Graham
Robert Graham is a conservative activist and AZ business leader. He was a leader in the fight against taxes and the destruction of our party system, successfully working with the grassroots to defeat Propositions 121 and 204 in the 2012 election. Congressman Trent Franks, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce, Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery, former Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce, Arizona House Majority Leader David Gowan, Rep. Steve Montenegro, Maricopa County Chairman Rob Haney, Arizona Latino Republican Association and numerous Arizona conservative leaders have endorsed Graham to lead the Arizona GOP.
Conservative Municipal Leaders across Maricopa County support Lisa Gray’s Team for Maricopa County Republican Leadership
Maricopa County – Conservative leaders across Maricopa County are supporting Lisa Gray and her AZ Party Builders team for Maricopa County Republican Leadership.
“I am proud to support Lisa Gray, Paul Brierley and the entire AZ Party Builders Team. They are the conservative leaders that Maricopa County needs right now. Please join me in supporting the AZ Party Builders Team.” – Jeff Weninger, Chandler Vice Mayor
“Over the past few years we have built a strongly conservative Town Council in Gilbert, and it’s making a huge difference. I am excited to see a Team like Lisa Gray’s Arizona Party Builders that will build our party to win elections at all levels. I’ve seen their work, and I know they are exactly what we need for our party.” – Jenn Daniels, Gilbert Town Council
“We are delighted to have the support and trust of city leaders from across the County,” said Gray. “Strong relationships between elected leaders and the grassroots is one of our priorities; having their support shows we’re already on the right track.”
Lisa Gray and her team, Paul Brierley, 1st Vice Chairman; Rene Lopez, 2nd Vice Chairman; Colleen Lombard, Secretary; and Walter Dudley, Treasurer, represent a broad segment of the County and have a combined 45 years of grassroots Republican leadership experience. They are known as the Arizona Party Builders because their focus will be on building the Party to win elections. Lisa and her team continue to garner the support of many conservatives across Maricopa County.
To learn more about the candidates and details of their plan, please visit www.AZPartyBuilders.com.
Republican National Committeeman Bruce Ash Endorses Lisa Gray for Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party
Phoenix – Bruce Ash, Republican National Committeeman has endorsed Lisa Gray in her race for Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party.
“It’s not everyday that you run across a person with such passion and optimism for our Party, but that is what you find in Lisa. She knows that now, more than ever, is the time to build our Party. I believe she is the right person at this time to lead us in Maricopa County,” said Ash. “She is a strong conservative with a proven track record of getting things accomplished by not wavering on principle but by working with all factions of our Party. She has a solid plan to build our Party and has recruited a stellar team to help implement that plan. Please join me in supporting Lisa Gray and her team to lead our Party in Maricopa County.”
“I am grateful to have the support of Bruce Ash, our National Committeeman, who is well respected within our Party, both nationally and within our state,” said Gray. “I have assembled a well qualified team of leaders from across Maricopa County with over 45 years of combined experience to help lead our County. We have a solid plan that will prepare us for the 2014 elections so that Republicans are victorious!”
“Robert Graham has demonstrated, through his activism and strict adherence to principles, that he is a true conservative warrior. As a citizen-statesman, he has battled in the trenches while running a successful business. The Arizona Republican Party can benefit from Robert’s experience as a skilled entrepreneur and investor, so I ask fellow party members to join me in supporting Robert Graham as our next state chairman.”
“I have been friends with JD for a long time, strongly supporting him throughout his career,” said Graham. “JD is a true conservative, taking on the difficult issues before it was popular to do so. America is better off because JD served in Congress and I am grateful to have his support and counsel in my race for chairman.”
About Robert Graham
Robert Graham is a conservative activist and AZ business leader. He was a leader in the fight against taxes and the destruction of our party system, successfully working with the grassroots to defeat Propositions 121 and 204. Majority Leader David Gowan, Speaker Pro-Tempore JD Mesnard, Rep. Justin Olson, Rep. Steve Montenegro, Maricopa County Chairman Rob Haney, and numerous Arizona conservative leaders have endorsed Graham to lead the Arizona GOP.
Chairman Gary Pierce of the Arizona Corporation Commission Endorses Robert Graham for Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party
“Robert Graham is the man who can bring PC’s, state committeemen, money, and voters together.”
PHOENIX — Today, Gary Pierce, Chairman of the Arizona Corporation Commission, endorsed Robert Graham for chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. Commissioner Pierce, who lives in Legislative District 25, is serving his second term on the Corporation Commission, where he has consistently led the fight for the principles of the conservative platform.
“I have known Robert Graham for many years,” said Pierce, “and he has always been a true conservative warrior. Under Robert’s guidance, I fully expect the Arizona Republican Party to become a united, well-funded party. We have the tools to sustain Republican success for decades, now we need a leader. Robert Graham is the man who can bring PC’s, state committeemen, money, and voters together to enjoy many Republican victories for years to come.”
“Gary Pierce is a well-respected Arizona Republican,” said Graham. “I am excited to have his endorsement, and I look forward to working with him to help ensure future GOP success. Arizona is fortunate to have a man of Gary’s caliber furthering the conservative cause.”
To learn more about Robert Graham and his plan for Arizona’s Republican Party, please visit his website at www.GrahamForArizona.com or his Facebook page.