Anti-McCain Republicans Still Not Anti-McCain Enough to Defeat McCain

 
A quick review of the Primary Election numbers on the Republican US Senate Race shows that Senator John McCain had no real threat of losing the nomination, again.

John McCain

John McCain

I went back and reviewed the official canvass from 2010 and compared those numbers with yesterday’s unofficial election results.

Here’s the comparison:

August 24, 2010 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
JD Hayworth – 190,299 / 32.07%
Jim Deakin – 69,328 / 11.68%

August 30, 2016 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Kelli Ward – 190,618 / 39.21%
Alex Melusky – 26,805 / 5.51%
Clair Van Steenwyk – 17,649 / 3.63%
Assuming votes for any of the 2010 and 2016 challengers were “anti-McCain” votes, those votes were still not enough to overcome a re-nomination of McCain. However, those numbers rose in 2016.

2010 Primary
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
Anti-McCain – 259,627 / 43.75%

Kelli Ward

Kelli Ward

2016 Primary
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Anti-McCain – 235,072 / 48.35%

Of course, this assumes that voter registration and turnout models are the same (which they are not). As you can see, John McCain collected 82, 676 fewer votes than he did in 2010. He also lost 4.6% of his edge among Republican voters.

What does this mean moving forward?

John McCain will likely face his most difficult General Election ever.

Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick

In her last campaign finance reporting, Ann Kirkpatrick disclosed she has $2.3 Million in the bank. John McCain’s last report showed just over $5 Million cash on hand. Assuming he’s depleted a portion of that amount fending off Primary challengers, and, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has allocated funds to Arizona, this will be McCain’s toughest campaign.

If we also consider the “Trump Factor” and the division in the Arizona Republican Party, Arizona Republicans run a higher risk of losing this US Senate seat to Ann Kirkpatrick.

Not surprising, those voting for Donald Trump may not vote for John McCain and those voting for John McCain may not be voting for Donald Trump.

I still see a divided Republican Party in Arizona between those who learned from the 2012 Presidential race and those who didn’t.

Republicans in Arizona are not united, and it’s still to be seen if they will be on November 8th.

What If Kirkpatrick Didn’t Run For Senate After All?

Has it occurred to anyone that Ann Kirkpatrick has no reason to run for US Senate against John McCain other than to oblige her party and fill a gap in the shrinking Democrat talent pool?

Honestly, I don’t see how she could remain in that race given the insurmountable gap in polling and funding between she and John McCain.

Unless, this was all just a ploy to preempt Kyrsten Sinema from jumping in the Senate race.

Kirkpatrick would be a political fool to leave a district in which she has already beat one of the more well known candidates backed by the NRCC establishment. Why would she take on a bigger risk against McCain when she already proved she can play it safe and win re-election?

Perhaps, jumping in a Senate race was a tactic to generate a little excitement with the hope of converting that buzz to some campaign cash?

If Kirkpatrick was politically smart, she’d do the same thing as Matt Salmon, Paul Gosar and David Schweikert and stay right where she is.

McCain will win his Primary. I can speak from personal experience from the losing side – been there done that, got the t-shirts to prove it.

Ann Kirkpatrick knows she’s walking away from a relatively safe district into a danger zone by taking on McCain in a general election. If she were wise, she’d stop listening to the consultants and party elites who are trying to offer her up as yet another political sacrifice to Arizona voters.

I’m willing to bet she stays right where she is.

Americans for Prosperity-Arizona Releases Two New Ads in AZ01 & AZ02

The Arizona Chapter of Americans for Prosperity released the following two ads in Arizona:

Andy Tobin Campaign Launches Robocall Against Ann Kirkpatrick On Her Support For Painful Social Security Cuts, Taxes

Andy Tobin

Kirkpatrick admitted in this week’s debate that she supports raising taxes on hardworking Arizonans and dangerously altering seniors’  benefits formula.

The Tobin campaign launched a new robocall campaign Thursday morning designed to educate Arizona’s seniors on Ann Kirkpatrick’s admission that she supports painful tax increases and benefit alterations with Social Security. (Listen here.)

On Tuesday night in Marana, Ann Kirkpatrick said that she supported raising the cap on contributions, which would mean more taxes for Arizona’s families and businesses. (Arizona Daily Star, 10/15/14)

She also said she supported altering the formula used to pay out the hard-earned benefits for seniors.

“Ann Kirkpatrick finally admitted to the voters on Tuesday that she will have no problem voting for a plan that would raise taxes on Arizonans and take an axe to the current formula that pays seniors their hard-earned benefits,” campaign manager Bill Cortese said in a statement. “Andy Tobin believes in preserving the promise of Social Security and leaving seniors’ benefits alone, and he refuses to raise taxes even further on Arizona’s hard-working families and small businesses.”

See below for the transcript of the new robocall.

Hi. I’m calling with the Andy Tobin for Congress campaign to make sure you heard what our Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick said the other night at a debate about Social Security.

After all the wasteful spending Kirkpatrick and President Obama have done in Washington, now they want to pay for it all on the backs of our seniors.

Kirkpatrick said she supports raising Social Security taxes, which would hit hard working Arizonans and small businesses.

And she supports a risky plan that would change the Social Security benefit formula.

Andy Tobin opposes Kirkpatrick’s irresponsible Social Security plan and will take the lead in Congress to protect both Social Security and Medicare. Andy Tobin opposes raising the retirement age, cutting benefits and raising taxes on seniors.

The choice in this election is pretty clear. Kirkpatrick is just wrong for Arizona and for seniors.

This call was paid for by Andy Tobin for Congress. 928-607-3802.

NFIB Endorses Andy Tobin for Congress

Small Business Choice NFIB Sign-TopperAndy Tobin

His pro-small-business record in Legislature made him the clear choice

Calling his eight years in the Legislature “the high-water mark for pro-small-business policy advances,” the nation’s largest and leading small-business association today endorsed Andy Tobin for Congress over incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.

“Andy Tobin’s four-terms in the Arizona House of Representatives represented this generation’s high-water mark for pro-small business policy advances,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business. “He justifiably deserves a fair amount of credit for those victories, because for most of those years, he was in the House majority leadership, including three years as the House Speaker. Historic cuts to personal and corporate income tax rates, trimming of the commercial and industrial property tax burden, doubling of the exemption on equipment and machinery taxes, simplification of sales tax administration, capital gains tax reduction and faster accelerated depreciation are only the top pro-free market tax policies that became law under Andy Tobin’s tenure in leadership. Regulatory reform, employment law improvements and modest advances in curbing lawsuit abuse were also hallmarks of his record. And all this occurred during one of the deepest and most persistent economic recessions in Arizona history.”

During Tobin’s eight years in the Arizona House, he earned a 96 percent voting record with NFIB, siding with Main Street job creators on 43 of 45 issues. The endorsement of Tobin (1st District) was made by NFIB’s SAFE (Save America’s Free Enterprise) Trust, the association’s political action committee. NFIB has 350,000 dues-paying members across the nation, including 7,000 in Arizona.

“For every session of Congress, we make it vividly clear what bills will be helpful or harmful to the nation’s small businesses,” said Lisa Goeas, NFIB’s vice president for political and grassroots, “and every representative and senator knows we are keeping a scorecard. Congresswoman Kirkpatrick earned only a 30 percent voting record on 10 issues vital to Main Street in the 113th Congress. That is no way to treat the people who employ more working Americans than big business, big labor or big government ever will. The engine of our economy will run much smoother with Andy Tobin in Congress.”

Brief, single-pages of bulleted information on the power of the small-business vote, what a small business is and the distinctions it has from a big business can be found here.

“Small businesses significantly impact Arizona’s economy,” reports the Office of Advocacy at the U.S. Small Business Administration. “They represent 97.1 percent of all employers and employ 44.8 percent of the private-sector labor force. Small businesses are crucial to the fiscal condition of the state and numbered 495,227 in 2010. Most of Arizona’s small businesses have fewer than 20 employees.”

For more than 70 years, the National Federation of Independent Business has been the Voice of Small Business, taking the message from Main Street to the halls of Congress and all 50 state legislatures. NFIB annually surveys its members on state and federal issues vital to their survival as America’s economic engine and biggest creator of jobs. NFIB’s educational mission is to remind policymakers that small businesses are not smaller versions of bigger businesses; they have very different challenges and priorities.

Ann Kirkpatrick Repeatedly Picks Party Over National Security

Andy Tobin

Whether it’s transferring terrorists to U.S. soil or extending rights to foreign combatants, Kirkpatrick votes the party line. 

As the War on Terror continues in the Middle East against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, Arizonans are looking for their representatives in Congress to do everything they can to keep them safe and secure back home.

In Washington, Ann Kirkpatrick chooses to secure the party line instead.

When it came time to choose between defending President Obama or making a statement about America’s security priorities, Kirkpatrick chose to defend the President when she voted against condemning him for breaking the law with the Bowe Bergdahl prisoner transfer. (Roll Call #485, 9/9/2014)

When Nancy Pelosi asked her to, Kirkpatrick voted to allow the transfer of terrorist detainees from Guantanamo Bay to American soil. (Roll Call #254, 5/30/14)

She even voted to extend Constitutional rights to foreign terrorists who are not U.S. Citizens captured within the United States. (Roll Call #228, 6/13/2013)

“Ann Kirkpatrick has had plenty of opportunities to prove her commitment to national security, but time and time again she votes with Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, even when its against Arizona’s interests,” Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese said in a statement. “With everything going on abroad, Arizonans deserve to know why Kirkpatrick wants Guantanamo Bay detainees to be transferred and tried within the United States and why she wants to extend Constitutional rights to foreign terrorists.”

NRCC Launches New Ads in Arizona’s CD-1 and CD-2

Two new ads just launched in Arizona’s first and second congressional districts. The National Republican Congressional Committee posted these on their independent expenditure YouTube channel. We thought you’d appreciate them.

Also note that Republicans are now messaging a strong national security theme with voters.

First the AZ01 ad:

And the AZ02 ad:

AZ01 Poll: Andy Tobin Leads Ann Kirkpatrick by 8 Points

In the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District, challenger Andy Tobin holds a substantial 8 point lead over incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, 51 percent to 43 percent, demonstrating a clear path to victory for Tobin.

The poll, taken September 2-4, was conducted by Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected pollsters in the country who has experience accurately polling in Arizona (see attached memo for full analysis).

Tobin holds a strong 7 point advantage among Independents, and is attracting significant cross-over appeal, earning 18 percent of the vote among registered Democrats. President Obama is very unpopular in the district, with a 57 percent disapproval rating, as is the Affordable Care Act (58 percent disapprove).

“The data speaks for itself: Ann Kirkpatrick’s record has caught up to her, and voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District are looking for a new voice to represent them in Congress,” said Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese. “Arizonans clearly see Kirkpatrick as part of the problem in Washington and are looking to Andy Tobin for a fresh start.”

Some of the key findings:

Congressional Ballot
Tobin: 51%
Kirkpatrick: 43%
Undecided: 6%

Obama Job Approval
Disapprove: 57%
Approve: 38%

Generic Ballot
Republican: 50%
Democrat: 42%

Kirkpatrick Reelect
Ready For Someone New: 53%
Kirkpatrick Deserves Reelection: 35%

Affordable Care Act
Disapprove: 58%
Approve: 39%

Governor’s Race in AZ-01
Ducey: 47%
DuVal: 34%

Kevin McCarthy: Three House Seats In Play In Arizona

Wednesday, Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was on the Hugh Hewitt Show with Congressman John Campbell. McCarthy and Campbell both gave a few minutes to assessing US House races across the country and began their conversation with our Arizona.

According to Majority Leader McCarthy, Arizona has three congressional races in play and likely pickups.

Top of the list is CD-1 where Andy Tobin is challenging Kirkpatrick; CD-2 where Martha McSally is coming on strong against Ron Barber and finally CD-9 where Wendy Rogers has a good chance of defeating Kyrsten Sinema in the General Election.

What this means is Republican Congressional leadership is engaged in what is happening here in Arizona.  Don’t be surprised if the NRCC throws some resources – money, ads, logistic support, endorsements, etc. – in order to ensure success in winning these three congressional House seats.

Here’s the transcript from Wednesday’s Hugh Hewitt Show:

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy:  Arizona-1, Kirkpatrick seat, this is an R+4, meaning it leans a Republican seat. She has been in one term within here. I think it’s a great opportunity. You’ve got Andy Tobin, they just had their primary, it just got determined. Andy is a conservative over there in the state legislature, actually was the speaker, great individual on all the tough issues. He’s led so many conservative movements there. The second is Arizona-2. This is Barber’s seat, currently R+3. Martha McSally, now Martha came last time less than 1,200 votes from winning the seat. Martha is the first female pilot in combat. She flew the A-10, remarkable woman, served our country so well. She would make such a great member. Those two in Arizona, you’ve got another one in Arizona, I’d say Arizona-9. We’ve got Wendy Rogers is our candidate again against Sinema. She’s a freshmen. This is R+1. All three of those are in play.

To ensure victory this November, let’s make sure we get out and work hard to get these fine candidates elected.

Andy Tobin: The Kirkpatrick Plan: Gut Our Schools

Andy Tobin

While Andy Tobin Was Joining With Democrats and Republicans to Protect Our Schools, Kirkpatrick Was Playing Partisan Politics

Andy Tobin today criticized Ann Kirkpatrick for failing to support a bipartisan solution he helped pass to protect our schools in Arizona and balance the budget, pointing out that under her plan, cuts to our schools would have skyrocketed.

Tobin was chief sponsor of Proposition 100, a bipartisan measure passed with 65 percent of the vote in 2010. The proposal, which Tobin sent to the ballot, was supported by a broad, bipartisan coalition including the education and business communities to protect funding for schools, public safety and health and human services.

However, Ann Kirkpatrick took a partisan approach and opposed the measure, offering no solutions to protect school funding during Arizona’s recession and budget crisis. In fact, even the Democrat who replaced Kirkpatrick in the state Legislature after she resigned to run for Congress, State Rep. Tom Chabin, voted with Tobin for this bipartisan, common-sense approach.

“I welcome a discussion about education and schools in this campaign,” Tobin said. “This race provides a clear contrast. As a father of five children who attended public schools, I’m proud to have helped lead bipartisan efforts to protect school funding, keep Arizona tuition low, provide additional dollars to our universities and community colleges, all while balancing our budget. I know Ann Kirkpatrick and her friends in Washington can print money, but in our state we have to act responsibly. When Arizona needed her, Kirkpatrick opposed our bipartisan plan to protect education funding and balance our budget.”