Survey Says…

Hat Tip to Mesa Issues for beating us to the punch on the poll just released by the East Valley Tribune. According to a poll conducted August 8th and 9th, Russell Pearce holds a huge lead over Kevin Gibbons in the race for the Senate in Legislative District 18. What must come as a shock to opponents of Pearce, Gibbons only polled at 13.3% compared to Pearce who holds the 51% needed to secure the Republican nomination. That left 36% of voters undecided or with no answer. (The survey asked 400 registered voters and contains a margin of error of 4.8%.)

LD 18 PollThis backs up what Sonoran Alliance predicted in an informal bloggers roundtable presented at Mesa Issues. The independent expenditures attacking Russell Pearce have backfired. Pearce has been seen as a political “rockstar” in his district for years and any attacks funded by outside opponents has been viewed as an attack on the community. Pearce’s district has also been plagued by the negative effects of illegal immigration which has also solidified his support.

To date, Nathan Sproul’s “Mesa Deserves Better” has only dropped two hit pieces attacking Pearce. The results have obviously backfired. With surveys like this, Sproul must be reconsidering any further attacks and probably thinking of taking his open-border supporters’ money to other legislative district races like LD-1, 6, 20, 26 and 30.

The other obvious blowback recipient on this poll is Kevin Gibbons whose Yuma grower’s money and support is withering fast. Even if Gibbons wrestles away the entire 36% of the undecided vote, he will never overcome Pearce’s 51%.

We predict that this race won’t even be close as Pearce continues to build momentum leading into the September 2nd Primary. Pearce’s Senate victory will also carryover to the House race where the two likely winners will be Ron Middlebrook and Cecil Ash. Often seen campaigning together door-to-door, Pearce has found a strong replacement for his House seat in Ron Middlebrook.


Comments

  1. This is about what I expected.

    Pearce will win by a massive margin.

  2. A multi-district state tour you say? More fun than a Sam Steiger burro hunt.

    Didn’t he say that most congressmen were too drunk to be trusted pushing wheelbarrows? Who says that colorful politics are gone from Arizona?

    Well, if the 11th commandment police are not going to get involved in this, then lets have some fun with the mudslingers.

  3. Yup, it was Steiger who said that. Bitter conservative vs. conservative primary for US Senate in 1976.

    Steiger defeated Conlan but Dennis DeConcini was the beneficiary of the resultant acrimonious Republican primary and took the seat. Fannin endorsed Steiger, Goldwater followed suit in the primary by saying “I’ve had all I can take from this guy (Conlan). I’d hate to serve in the US Senate with him”

    Steiger wouldn’t let go of his bitterness from the primary saying, as quoted in Time Magazine, “You can live a full, rich life and never run against John Conlan.”

    Great article, relevant today, 32 years later: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946608-1,00.html

    Moral of the story? Two words: Pyrrhic victory

  4. This is fun, I’m like the only guy running around the museum. Its like I’m the only one here and I can just post stuff everywhere.

    Go Pearce!

  5. Independent says

    This just goes to show that the people of Mesa don’t care if someone beat their wife or is friends with Nazis as long as they’re tough on illegals. It must be a Mormon thing.

  6. just curious says

    Ummm, i don’t mean to rain on the parade, but doesn’t the article also say that the poll was conducted before the mail for Mesa Deserves Better started arriving in mail boxes? If my memory serves me correctly, the first piece was released last wed or thurs and the polling was done on Friday/Saturday…So, unless the mail was sent fed ex, it may not even have arrived to voters…Just curious if that crossed anyone’s mind.

  7. I think it clearly says the mailers dropped on Wednesday or Thursday. If you were watching the news last week they reported on those days that the mailers were being received. According to Sprouls comments, they hit every registered voter in the district so all 400 people surveyed would have gotten the mailer.

  8. Happy Hanna says

    Mr. Independent

    I am so glad your ‘liberal’ thinking is displayed with all the colorful adjectives you employ to thoroughly display YOUR prejudices.

  9. I’m skeptical of any polling results released by a campaign. First, the poll was conducted completely on a Friday night and a Saturday. Most pollsters are very leery of weekend-only polling. Second, we don’t know the order of the questions. Was this a horse race question at the beginning of the poll, or was it asked after a number of message testing questions designed to lead the respondent in a particular direction? Thirdly, the poll says the sample was of registered Republicans, but we know turnout will be far less than 50 percent, so how well does the sample match the actual electorate? A likely voter sample would have more credibility. (Not to mention the issue of independents voting.) Not saying the poll isn’t interesting, just saying we all ought to take it with a grain of salt.

  10. Check your facts says

    http://s.azcentral.com/home/File-/document/40359/1/0

    See the survet for yourself. It looks to me like a single subject survey with rotated order of names. It also looks like a primary voting Republican sample balanced for turnout.

    In other words, it looks like a legitimate overwhelming defeat is about to take place.

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