Sure-shot prediction

Following the pattern set by of one of our readers we are able to predict that Tim Bee will NOT be elected to CD-5.

cd-5 bee.jpg


Comments

  1. Nice find!

    Ya, I think you pegged that prediction.

    Happy New Year all!

  2. Thanks Pat for pointing that out ( I posted that at 5:00AM this morning – didn’t have my coffee yet) Happy New Year 2008!!!

  3. chrome dome says

    you guys suck wind…Bee is coming after Giffords …be scared be very scared

  4. Of course he will win. The funny is that TonyGOPrano posted “CD 5”, when Tim is in “CD 8”
    Happy New Year. In 2008, we’re taking back what is ours.

  5. cheers bro!

  6. Buddy Breon says

    What a surprise that the peculiar blog can’t even get a district correct. Those guys need serious help in registering as the Dems they really are.

  7. Think Right-

    CD 8 is NOT “yours” because you are getting ready to nominate another person whose views do not line up with the interests and priorities of the people who live here. Bee will make it a closer race than Graf did because of his geographic base, skills as a campaigner and the money he will raise, but his voting record (outside of his well-known support for public education) is very close to Graf’s. Couple that fact with the way he has made a mockery of the “resign to run” law and he enters 2008 with a lot of negatives. Giffords, meanwhile, continues to earn the respect and support of everyone save those on the extreme right and extreme left. She is in prime position to retain this seat and Bee will be on the defensive throughout this campaign, not her.

  8. Correct me if I’m wrong but when I ran for the legislature in one of the sub-districts of CD-8, there were more country club Republicans than social and fiscal conservtives. These clubbers were the kind who who lean slightly right of center on fiscal issues while seeking tax break-subsidies for their businesses meanwhile leading anything but conservative social lifestyles.

    Sadly, Tucson is still a liberal haven where liberals like Giffords continues to make even Republicans feel warm and fuzzy about living with their heads in the sand.

    Tim Bee has a serious job ahead of him and my prayers and wishes are that he can get through to these people stuck in their happy delusions.

  9. kralmajales says

    And you don’t think that Tim Bee is a part of the country club GOP establishment? I suspect his supporters will be the same ole same ole of Jim Click and company.

    As for Bee, he will have a LOT of explaining to do soon…not only will he have needed to raise more funds, but he has presided over an $800 Million plus state level deficit. Cuts will be made on his watch…unless…he resigns to run. If he resigns to run, he ticks off all those big money supporters who are counting on him for pork for Southern Arizona.

    All the while, Giffords runs an incumbent campaign, continues doing constituent service, and representing our district as our Congresswoman.

  10. The blame for the budget should be held by the one person who has had her hand in the mix for the most time, Janet. Bee can say he was a broker of consensus, a leader who could bring both sides to a reasonable end. Such above the fray maneuvers will be welcome in a campaign cycle that will be so negative that to say you are “for the people not the party” better have some substance not just empty sentiment.

    Bee can win. The “will win” depends on much more than Giffords and Bee can control. How they respond to what is outside of their control will make or break them.

  11. Kral, how much of that deficit is Bee’s fault and how much is Janet’s? After all, she’s always pushing for more and more spending!

    Sure, the Senate largely went along with her this last time while the House was trying to be more responsible, but nobody wants to spend more than Nappy, so how much responsibility does she bear for a budget that has grown more than 60% in 6 years?

  12. Wow, I smell a lot of fear here. How many of you guys who hate Bee and love Gabby, live in my district? Bee has not even declared his candidacy and the smear is on. I mean come on, he could say: “Gee thanks guys but no thanks, me and the old lady are going to Disneyland!”

    Gabby has a lot more problems running as a moderate than Bee has running as a conservative. Don’t believe me: check out Blog for Arizona.

    Who are these country club republicans that people often reference? It’s like you guys are talking about aliens, black helicopters and the new world order. Where’s Louie Farrakahn wehn you need him? Doesn’t it make sense that people with money would use thier influence to protect thier wealth? Let’s not pretend that the Democrats don’t have big financial backers either. Pederson for US Senate. Carbon off sets anyone?

    Jim Click! Jim Click! Jim Click! Don’t need to go on the playground to find Chicken Little, they are right here. Jim Click recently sent me an email, posted for your conspiratorial enjoyment:

    Dear James,

    At this time of year, it is a time for reflection and thanks. With 2008 just days away, as well as Tim’s final decision rapidly approaching, we want to update you on the progress and early success of the Tim Bee Exploratory Committee.

    Tim has traveled throughout the district and has had the opportunity to meet with hundreds of residents of CD 8. He has made the time to speak with constituents and LISTEN to their concerns. We are also excited to report that more than 500 individuals have contributed to the Exploratory Committee; proving the need for Tim to run for Congress.

    Tim draws from his experience as a father, husband, businessman and state legislator as he contemplates this decision. The fact that you have given to this committee speaks volumes to Tim. It is our hope, that as this year draws to a close, you would consider matching your early contribution. The deadline for the contribution to be included in the year end report is 12/31/07.

    It is important to enter into 2008 with a strong filing–reminding those in CD 8 that we want and will fight for a strong, principled leader to represent us in Washington. Please take a moment today to visit http://www.timbee.com and match your early donation.

    Thank you for your support and for commitment to your future, our future and the future of our children and grandchildren.

    Jim Click
    Committee Chairman

    Sandy Froman
    Committee Chairwoman

    Duff Hearon
    Finance Chairman

    Paid for by the Tim Bee Exploratory Committee
    Tim Bee Exploratory Committee | P.O. Box 31985 | Tucson | AZ | 85751

  13. James-

    Good post! I agree with you that the demonization of Jim Click is silly, trivial and overlooks all that good and decent man does for the less fortunate in this town through his many charitable endeavors. Some in the GOP are mad at him for his support of Huffman in ’06 and his opposition to their unrealistic proposals regarding immigration and some in our party use him as a poster boy for the so-called “growth lobby.” However, if you think that the guy who runs Blog for Arizona speaks for anyone except the far left, you’re mistaken. Giffords has the support of all but the fringe elements in her party and is much more likely to capture independent votes and even those from some in your party.

    Tim S.-

    Candidly, I think that Janet bears much of the blame for the current shortfall in our budget. She was too willing to compromise with the GOP on tax cuts that were unneeded for economic stimulus and was content to triangulate between them and her party’s caucus. This made her look good, but the chickens are now coming home to roost. Janet has been chronically and pitifully unwilling to expend her ample political capital in TRULY taking on the legislative leadership and taking her case to the public. Other than being a steady bulwark against the excesses of the GOP in this state, she can point to few accomplishments that are actually her own.

  14. Pathetic Rex that you would try to blame tax cuts rather than overspending. How much venture capitol does the state have to spend on bio-tech and other garbage before you decide that the money being spent is not in the best interests of the state or its taxpayers? We could go on about the proper role of government and what our government should and should not be spending its money on, but that would be a waste of time with you.

    When government grows by 62% in 6 years and the governor claims that it isn’t fast enough, trust me, its an overspending problem.

  15. Tim and Rex,

    Thank you for the education on the Guv. I like a good joust. Keep the blows above the belt, remember we gotta live with one another.

    Rex,

    I can’t speak for Pima County because the people I pal around either don’t vote or live in Grijalva’s district. I know that Gabby is not popular in SV. Both my brother and I did not vote last cycle. He is less political than I am and he can’t stand her. If he doesn’t get re-assigned by November he will vote against her. Me, I was content to let her represent me. The congressional GOP disloyalty to President appalled me. Throw in Mark Foley and Jim Kolbe. We got what we deserved.

    I disassociated Gabby from Pelosi because Gabby did a lot of things in the district especailly SV that made her approachable and Pelosi from another planet. Then my summons from blissful political exile came when Gabby voted with Nancy on Armenian Genocide. That affected people I knew and the work I did when I was in Iraq. Tidball another vet penned a scathing letter to the SV Herald and that’s how he and I met.

    Gabby tries to come off as a moderate. “I own a gun. I drive a truck.” I really question her sincerity. Then there’s that mess about permanent BP checkpoint in Tubac. What she believes on these issues is interpretitve, but when you throw out the 92 to 96 percent votes with Nancy, that kind of stuff sticks with us. Especailly when there is at least one of her votes that viscerally angered in my party.

    Liberals, democrats? I don’t know. I am not a democrat. My best friend who like me is a contractor, (he is more of an RFK democrat) could care less who is running and will support her if she was covered in Blue tatoos. But read that blog again. People were asking what she really believes. Schip and solar power, one of the lefties threw anti-semitism in the mix.

    I guess what happens to support for Gabby depends a lot on who the moveon people react to the good news out of Iraq. I don’t know. I drink liberally at home especially when creepy Huckabee is on Hannity and Colmes.

  16. kralmajales says

    Thanks for responding all.

    First, on the deficit, it is squarely on the shoulders of Republicans…and Tim Bee as leader is going to get the credit for it. While anyone can say that “Janet did it”, the truth is that the power to tax and spend exists with the legislature. The proposals she floated, yes, were compromises that were driven by the GOP majority. The compromises that she won were those brokered by Bee. Doesn’t matter how much is on Janet. Bee is running on his record and that record is now tainted. What I said above is quite quite true.

    More importantly, Giffords has no responsibility for the poor financial state of our state. The man who leads the Senate does.

    Next, on Jim Click. All I said was that he is part of the country club Republican set which is led around here by Jim Click. He is a primary fundraiser, as is noted by James’ nice post. I don’t hate the guy at all. In fact, I am proud that he has helped with the effort to stop the employer sanctions bill and some of that extremism…I am also proud he supports the U. of A. All else, I find that his politics and behind the scenes strategy to be less that palatable at times.

    Last, on being afraid of Bee. I think he is the best challenger you have, but it won’t be enough. As I have said before, I think this run is seriously unwise for his political future. He may have to bail the Senate to run in January, leaving S. Arizona in a massive slump for leadership. If he stays, he is nailed with the state of our state…financially unsound. If he loses, he is unlikely to recover from it. Look at history in this district…look at the folks that ran against Kolbe…where are they now?

  17. Thank you to the crew at Mafioso for giving us such an interesting topic. Great comments.

    Let me add a few more.

    Gabby is not as vulnerable as some wish but she has lost a lot of her previous support and not just from the extreme left.

    The average voter could care less about the manufactured issue over the resign to run law and odds are they have not even heard about that silly matter. CD-8 has little to do with Tucson. It is about LD 30 and LD 26 for Bee. If he does well in those two districts, major parts of CD-8, then he will win. Bee will rock in LD 30 because they have been voting for him and his brother there for over a decade. A certain portion of the electorate will not even know, or care, that Tim is running for congress and not the legislature. They know his name and will vote for him.

    Bee needs to light a fire in LD 26 and use the noticeable Republican advantage there to put him over the top. He also needs to appeal to the independents, something he has probably had a lot of experience with in his legislative races.

    The issue with Click’s support is that he is not known for picking winners, almost a hex. Other than that it is a non-issue.

    The budget crisis is a double edge sward. Solve it and get all the good press, mess it up and get bad press. If Bee can come up with a positive solution he will be in the news a lot more than stick-her-finger-in-the-wind Giffords.

    All that being said the race is wide open at this point.

  18. Tim-

    How much of the budget is devoted to ” bio-tech and other garbage?” Check your facts, son. Most of the budget goes towards education, human services and infrastructure needs. How can we be overspending in those areas when we are the second-fastest growing state in the country?

    This is a wretched state in which to be a child, at least if you are poor. Look at the numbers of uninsured kids, teen pregnancies, dropouts and students crammed into overcrowded classrooms. The ideologues that run our Legislature have ignored or pooh-poohed these problems for years.

    Tax cuts that were NOT passed for the reasons that tax cuts SHOULD be passed are just part of the problem. Because of a stupid ballot measure we approved, you need a supermajority to pass any revenue measure in the Legislature. The deficit we see now is a direct result of tax cuts that were passed when the good times were rolling in the Arizona economy. What is “pathetic,” Tim, is that the Legislature and, yes, Janet did not think about what would happen when the housing market and other key parts of our economy went south.

    James-

    I’m sorry that Gabby’s vote on Armenian genocide upset you. It is one of those issues that, for the life of me, I can’t understand why legislative bodies consider. That tragedy occurred in the waning days of World War One, but it has been a topic for debate on Capitol Hill during the last several Congresses. Why politicians are so eager to spend their time on issues like that when their votes won’t erase or affect what happened decades ago is beyond me.

    I don’t think there is anyone in this world, certainly not in political circles, that I agree with all the time. However, I have known Gabrille Giffords since before she was in Congress and I like and trust her and find her to be both sincere and intelligent. I also knew Tim Bee years ago and he is a bright and genuine person. Neither of them are paragons. None of us are.

    What it comes down to for me is that BOTH of them, if elected, WILL vote with their party leadership over 90% of the time. Given the current priorities espoused by Republicans in this state and at the federal level, there is no way I could vote for Bee. There will be times that I am unhappy or disagree with Giffords, but she and her party have proven to me that they have the best interest of most of us at heart…most of the time.

    I think what I said in the previous paragraph represents the thought process all of us go through before casting our ballots. It sounds simple, true, but why does this stuff have to be hard? Vote based on your values and who you think will best represent them in office…most of the time.

  19. Actually James we don’t HAVE to live with each other. Just because Rex posts on here doesn’t make him a conservative or a Republican anymore than Kral is. Rex isn’t an ally in the battles being waged.

    Interesting though that Kral places the blame for our nation’s deficit on a Democrat Congress rather than Ronald Reagan like most libs prefer. Then, he gives the 1994 Republican Congress credit for the surpluses rather than Bill Clinton like most libs prefer. “Power to tax and spend” and all that…

  20. kralmajales says

    Tim S.

    In the case of Arizona, the legislature has great power. They can pass tax cuts and a budget but can’t pass tax increases without a supermajority.

    Rex is right on about taxes causing this mess. Here is why. The theory behind tax cutting is that it will pump money into the economy and spur growth. That works to an extent, but not if government is stripped to a level that it cannot keep up with growth, infrastructure, and the basic needs of its people. Beyond that, we have to be competitive to attract business. We can build suburb after suburb but if we dont have excellent schools, roads, and the like…we lose to states who fund those things. Our growth strategy here was based on cheap land and low taxes…it works for awhile. The reason we have a deficit now is not because of overspending, but because the tax cuts are not producing enough growth to bring in the revenue needed to fullfill the needs of our state. When the economy is hummimg, growth might produce that revenue…when it is not, the gamble we take is what we have now.

    The fiscal policies of our State Senate and House are to blame…as are voters who beg for cut after cut on the ballot.

  21. kralmajales says

    As for comparing state policy to that of feds. The federal executive branch of government is far more powerful than that of the Congress. Thus, Reagan does get credit for transforming America…but also for the deficits. Clinton gets credit for a humming economy (although other market forces helped surely)…but gets blamed for other abuses of office.

    The same will happen with Bush…

    As for Janet, most of the time she was left with what she could get unless she used the veto. Rex argues that she should have played tougher longer, but in this state, any method to raise revenue other than growth is a third rail. The legislature does a great job at blaming taxes and big government for things, but then, it seems, won’t take responsibility for the consequences after governemnt is stripped and our state hits deficits that are frankly scary.

    Let’s see how they work with Janet to fix it or if they demand even more cuts.

  22. The notion that the President without a line item veto is MORE responsible for the spending of the nation than the Governor WITH a line item veto is simply untrue.

    The idea that a President has more control over the spending habits of 535 Congressmen than the Governor does over 90 part-time State Legislators is equally laughable.

    Your logic is contrived as its the only way you can blame Republicans for all of the deficits at the state and federal level. But it is so obviously and fatally flawed that no lengthy response is needed.

  23. What a load of garbage from our leftie pal Kral. Are we supposed to treat that seriously? In every case Napolitano’s proposed budget was MORE than what was ultimately spent while Russell Pearce and the GOP’s draft budget was less. Nappy wanted to spend more, the GOP less. Period.

    Same crap at the federal level. The Dems always want to tax and spend more, the GOP less. Sure, the GOP gave them a run for their money in recent years, but even then the Dems wanted more.

    I guess that’s what happen when the Democrats have to buy their votes.

  24. kralmajales says

    Not flawed logic at all. I can absolutely say that Napolitano wanted to spend more on education and more on higher education…and more on roads and such. It is also true however that the GOP proposed big budgets of their own that placed more funding into programs to stop illegal immigration, private prisons, and a host of other expenditures.

    The big difference though is that your party spends and at the same time continues to cut revenues sources in the form of taxes. You like the spending when it benefits you and at the same time you are unwilling to pay for it. That is the story of President Bush and the many many years we have had of a GOP dominated Congress that had no fiscal discipline at all.

    We have a deficit here. It wasn’t the governors fault that it was created. She had to bend over and take the lion’s share of your budget…and Tim Bee apparently helped make kit happen.

    Some of you here, I wager, hate gambling but the GOP is the biggest gamblers of all. They gambled away our surplus, they are gambling away access to education, they are gambling away the ability to catch up with the growth they begged so much for. They gamble that lower taxes and give-aways to business will create a vibrant economy…when the economy is vibrant, the very low taxes still produce revenue true…when the economy is not, we wrack up deficits…this is where we are at now.

    …and since you all went the route of the feds…take a look at how your Congress and President did exactly the same thing. Talking out of both sides of your behinds…on one hand…you say lower spending and earmarks, while creating massive spending on defense, earmarks to K Street lobbyists, billions of our kids money on Iraq and billions more on a wall that you think will actually save us money (JOKE)…and you still want to lower taxes and stick this debt with my son.

    Your party is a bunch of dead-beats. In the real world we call such behavior illegal. We should lock ya’ll up like you want to lock up illegal immigrants.

  25. SonoranSam says

    Boy, I can’t stay out of this one, try as I might.

    Presidents don’t have control over the budget? Then how did Bush stymie efforts to reduce funding for Iraq, deny decent health care to working-poor children (SCHIP) and beat the crap out of the “Democrat Congress” for not living up to its commitment on earmarks? (I have to concede that point to R critics. Dems managed to reduce earmarks, and 40 percent of the ones that were attached to the spending bill came from Republicans, but the truth is the truth).

    As for Napolitano, she has plenty of say on the budget – but so does Bee and Weiers, and Pearce and Bob Burns.

    I commend Bee for his action last year to include Ds in the budget talks, but the final product passed with Republican votes. It’s his budget just as much as it is Napolitano’s.

    Tim Bee will be formidable for Ms. Giffords. I’m SHOCKED that the Republican stronghold of Sierra Visa has people who don’t like her!

    And I kinda-sorta agree with the poster who says LD 30 and LD 26 will be significant in the CD8 race in 2008.

    But in the final analysis, I like Gifford’s chances. Remember we’re now a three-party state – Rs, Ds and independents. The Rs will go with Bee, the Ds with Giffords. Advantage Bee.

    But then there’s those pesky independents. If Bee toes the NRCC line they’ll go with Giffords. If he holds his own with them, Giffords is in trouble.

    But I think the Is will break in Giffords’ favor.

  26. kralmajales says

    Sonoran,

    I agree with your latter analysis overall on Giffords and Bee. I think, though, that the trouble for him will be incumbency advantage and the “why switch horses?” question. There is no question that he is liked and likeable, but so is Giffords. For an incumbent to lose, it can’t just be because solid activist republicans don’t like her (those who populate this blog for the most part fit this statement). It has to mean that broader voters in a presidential election year really find her unpalatable. I don’t think this will happen to be honest. She had done a good job and the string of bad votes needed to get rid of her, for the most part anger liberal progressives and not independents and GOPers. Last, even though there is a registration advantage, incumbency matters and this is a year that the GOP is likely to lose and lose big.

    The political winds are not at all in favor of even a good challenger beating a solid incumbent who is Democrat.

  27. The average voter doesn’t care that much about state deficits. So blame can go one way or the other. What is bothersome is Janet’s pro-gay agenda that costs money in time of fiscal crunch. It just shows what her priorities are.

  28. SS,

    Why will Indies vote for the Giff and not for Bee?

    Like I said, I don’t live in Pima County. I don’t know what they think is important. But we tend to be impressed with what one has accomplished in a short amount of time. Bee has been able to rise to the top of his class.

    Rex said he knew both Gabby and Bee and that they are both stand up people. I would agree with that. Rex also said that you will get 90% votes with the Speaker while you are a freshman. I would agree with that too.

    Rex, where I think you should consider is that Pelosi has really alienated people like me who gave her a chance. I listened to Hannity demonize Pelosi and Clinton. His remarks in the wake of the lack of accomplishment of the rebelliuos GOP Congress, I thought were unfair. But when she is doing photo ops in Syria, Harry Reid said the war is lost, and Code Pink crapping at the Marine Corps recruitment center in San Francisco, I started to see where the country was going – Gray Davis’ California.

    Pelosi engineered that Turk-Kurd vote to sabotage the Surge. I thought the vote hurt America. I agree it was genocide we said it is genocide but why bring it up a month after General Petreus’ report?

    I am inclined to agree with SS that Indies will break for the Giff but the GOP Congress doesn’t have a polarizing figure like Gingrich. Pelosi is the Queen of Hearts that may trump Gabby’s likability and record.

  29. Indies will vote for whichever candidate they find more believable. Giffords (and Mitchell) have a string of campaign promises that they not only haven’t acted on, but have ultimately gone against. It’s easier for the voter to admit the mistake when they realize they voted for a liar.

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