Super Tuesday Outcomes

Given Super Tuesday’s outcome, the General Election is now almost certainly set.

John McCain who wins among Independent voters and liberal Republicans will choose Mike Huckabee who wins with hard core social conservative Republicans. These two factions will have to reconcile in order to win. Social conservatives will be harder to convince to support the whole ticket but will do so in hope that McCain will serve < or = to one term. Hillary Clinton who wins with the most liberal Democrats will broker Obama as her running mate who does much better in red states. Old Dems will reconcile with new Dems.


Comments

  1. kralmajales says

    Do you really think so on Obama and Hillary? I mean, the next list of states look pretty good for him and there are fewer to compete in and he has more money.

  2. Mike Huckabee would be the kiss of death for the Republican ticket, especially given McCain’s age. It will never, ever happen.

  3. kralmajales says

    Lindsey Graham folks…he needs a southern boy.

  4. Kral,

    You may be right on that but I think that Huck has already proven himself with the social conservatives and his ability to win southern states.

  5. McCain/Huckabee? I couldn’t vote for that ticket. Huckles is the one “Republican” that would make me stay home in November.

  6. The fact that Sen. Graham is not married will probably rule him out. Charlie Crist of Florida has a similar problem. Haley Barbour maybe. If Clinton gets the nominatiom, it will be easier for McCain to choose a non-Southern social conservative, say Sam Brownback or a yet to be named governor. But McCain’s people better vet the personal lives and histories of potential running mates very carefully.

    There are an awful lot of gays lurking in the closets of the Republican upper tier, and I just don’t think that would work out very well. In Congress, the lobbying corruption is still full icebergs unseen, and Waxman and Schumer are busy men. As for Huckabee, I don’t think we’ve even begun to hear all about the “gifts” he received as governor of Arkansas. Can you say “Whitewater”?

  7. I still think McCain needs a young governor (like Sanford, Daniels or Pawlenty) who is more conservative than him and who offers generational change, plus the outside-of-Washington executive experience McCain lacks.

    McCain, however, could also pick a woman, but I can’t think of a GOP woman with sufficient gravitas, except maybe Senator Hutchinson of Texas.

    Huckabee appeals to social conservatives, but Rush and the others who have slammed his “liberal” record in Arkansas will be incensed. His views on evolution and other issues would also make him anathema to independents and lessen McCain’s appeal to them. I wouldn’t bet a cent on Huckabee being his choice.

  8. Mr. Conservative says

    McCain / Huckabee would be a disaster for the GOP… Conservatives don’t like McCain and the Mormons really dislike Huckabee. We get that ticket and say hello to Pres. Obama or Pres. Clinton…

  9. Consider this: The RINO McLame wins presidency. The country goes thru 4 years of liberal policies……then elect their next president — a Dimacrat. We end up with at least 8 years of liberals…..

    Or…

    Vote for Obama instead of McLame….the country gets 4 years of liberalism, then we get a real Republican…..

    One way we get 8 years (at least) of liberals, the other way only 4…..is it the lady or the tiger?

  10. Rex,

    Excellent advice. Did you used to be a Republican? Not sure McCain will do anything like this but it would help if he did appoint a solid conservative governor.

  11. Iris Lynch says

    This Wednesday morning has given me a new outlook on candidates. The only conservative that I see as possible is Ron Paul. He will now get my vote come November. Under NO circumstances could I vote for McCain/Huckabee. ButI will not help the Dems by NOT voting.

    I believe there will be at least three choices come November.

  12. What a horrid idea. McCain/Huck. I would support McCain, grudgingly, if he were the republican nominee. McCain/Huck, on the other hand– might just support Hillary. Egad. What a scary idea. That’s like the worst of both worlds!

  13. McCain ain’t gonna pick Huckabee. The Huck’s payoff will come in a cabinet position like HHS where he can rail against smoking and obesity. No, I think McCain will pick a conservative like South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford to mend fences with economic conservatives for whom Sanford is a hero.

  14. Also, the election is by no means done on the Democrat side. If anything, Obama has several races coming up where he is the favorite. It’s important to keep in mind that unlike Republicans, the Democrats apportion their delegates and do not have winner take all. It’s conceivable that Obama will pull ahead over the next few weeks.

  15. Huckabee would help with social conservatives but hurt with people who are against illegal immigration. Lindsey Graham would lose the election for McCain.

    The interesting thing is that McCain likes to be his own man and do his own thing. If he goes that route for VP good luck to him.

    Mike is right on with his choice but will McCain do what makes sense?

  16. Don’t assume Mc Cain would do what is rational. Remember Mc Cain released his delegates to Huck in W. Va. to stick it to Romney. What has Mc Cain EVER done that would woo anyone into thinking he wants to make up to the conservatives or anyone else????

    He is a god unto himself.

  17. BTW, Only Mc Cain ‘lost’ his home state. He did not get a majority of Arizonans with a mere 47%, whereas other candidates got a majority of THEIR home state. Looks like we know him best, even though it is usual to get a majority in your home state, not all of us could hold our noses and vote for our homey.

  18. This is far from over on the Dem side. According to one article, it is projected that Obama will have won Super Tuesday with more delegates, so I fail to see how the general election is “certainly set.” This comes from the same people who were sure that McCain was dead in the water before the primaries even began. To be fair, a lot of people thought that, so y’all weren’t the only ones wrong then. But McCain/Huckabee :: Clinton/Obama?? Are y’all watching the same primaries as me?

    Iris: It is funny how numbers are fungible, isn’t it. You’re right, McCain didn’t get over 50% of the vote in AZ. But in AZ he beat Romney by 13%, whereas Romney only beat him by 10% in MA. You’re right, Arizonan’s sure know their politicians well–3% voted for Giuliani!! I don’t think you can make too big a political statement based on that fact.

    I think I agree with Mike on Sanford. That would be a good complement.

    Willard: we cannot afford any years of a president that will not appoint strict constructionist judges (and I believe McCain will, if Ted Olson and Steven Calabresi trust him here, I do as well). Ginsburg and Stevens are sure to retire in the next President’s term, maybe even more (there are 6 justices over 70). This is important enough to make sure McCain wins, even if you don’t agree with all his other policies.

  19. GOP Boomer Gal says

    The smartest pick for VP would be Michael Steele, IMO. He’s a forceful speaker and a strong presence. And it doesn’t hurt that he’s a gentleman “of color”.

  20. Mr. McNasty and the Preacher for President and Vice president?

    One would kill the other!

  21. Frank,

    With all due respect, what makes you think McCain will appoint strict constructionists? Those guys may support him, but so does Warren Rudman (the guy who gave us Souter). Also, McCain doesn’t make deals with the liberals in the Senate by bringing them over to our side–quite the opposite. Can you really picture him appointing Janice Rogers Brown or Miguel Estrada, then digging in for a fight against Kennedy and the other libs on the SJC? I certainly can’t.

  22. kralmajales says

    There is no such thing as a strict constructionist…it is total BS. The truth is that GOP judges interpret actively in conservative direction and defer to the other branches when the policy preference suits them.

    Demo judges interpret actively in a liberal direction and defer to the other branches when the policy preferences suits them.

    Ya’ll want conservative judges…some of us want liberal ones, but let’s not hide behind silly labels like strict constructionism that appear to make these choice somehow LESS political.

  23. Frank Soto says

    Poison,

    Well, there is no way to ‘know’ that any candidate will do anything I suppose. McCain has stated that he will appoint strict constructionists (http://www.fed-soc.org/debates/dbtid.15/default.asp)

    Ted Olson, Calebresi, and McGinnis are a much bigger deal than the ex-senator Paul Weiss Partner when it comes to judges, in my humble opinion. But again, it’s all speculation, you have to get your beliefs from somewhere I suppose; but this is really no place for an epistemology debate.

  24. Maybe in the next 9 months I will become comfortable taking McCain at his word, but I’m certainly not there yet.

    When it comes to judges, McCain or any other Republican president would be facing an uphill battle to confirm anyone thought to be even slightly right of center, let alone another Scalia. Bush had his hands full with a 10-seat majority in the senate, and the next president will likely face the opposite or worse. Add to that the fact that the next justice to resign or die may be from the “pro-Roe” side, which could tip the balance the other way. The libs know this, and will make it a fight to the death (politically speaking at least).

    McCain would first have to decide he is up for that fight, then proceed to wage a months-long battle in solidarity with his “fellow” Republicans (with the exception of Specter of course), against the very people he has prided himself on working with for all these years. It WILL get nasty, no matter what. The only way to come out on top will be to make enough Democrats fear the wrath of their own constituents if they vote No. That will largely be up to McCain himself–he must take advantage of the “bully pulpit” and coherently explain to the American people why a “strict constructionist” is necessary. And of course, every step of the way, he must convince himself that McCain-Feingold isn’t really THAT important. If he does all that, his maverick status will be gone forever, whether or not he comes out on top.

    I hope I’m wrong, but I just can’t picture McCain going all the way with this. In fact, I can’t think of a single time he’s gotten “down and dirty” with the Democrats the way he does with the Republicans. I’m sure it’s happened, but not in recent memory. In fact, when I heard that he went on a profanity-laced tirade against a fellow senator in the immigration debate, I never had any doubt which party the other guy was from.

  25. Obain is what we are stuck with.

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