State GOP Chairman’s Race – Entrance Polling

Sure, we’ve all heard about exit polling… But that won’t help us too much on January 27th when the Arizona Republican Party meets to elect a new State Chairman. By the time we do exit polling we’ll have the results, so where’s the point in that? This race has all the trimmings of a traditional campaign, including fancy websites, platforms, colorful lapel stickers, opposition research, and mudslinging aplenty. But what it doesn’t have, and what we political junkies miss, is polling. Who’s winning, who’s losing, who is gaining and who is losing momentum? We don’t know and it is driving us all mad!

Have no fear, West Washington is here to deliver an election first… Entrance Polling Data! Now you can know how people are going to vote BEFORE they vote… How is the data compiled? Well, we do it as follows:

1. Start with the list of endorsements provided by both campaigns. No, not the entire list of everyone who claims to be a supporter, but just the names of people who are also State Committeemen.
2. When a husband and wife are both State Committeemen and only one appears as an endorsement while the other does not, we assume that the spouse WILL vote for the same candidate.
3. Where both candidates claim the endorsement of the same person, we try to contact that person and determine who they are actually supporting.

For those of you keeping score at home, if every possible vote is in attendence, either in person or by proxy, then it will take 420 votes to win this thing! Tim Russert, get your chalkboard ready… As of Wednesday, January 17th, the vote count stands as follows:

Randy Pullen – 326 of which 2 are questionable

Lisa James – 132 of which 2 are questionable

Unclaimed – 383

Both candidates claim the support of the same 5 people, but Pullen has the signatures of 2 on support cards while a third person tells West Washington that he did not tell Lisa he was supporting her and that he is supporting Pullen. The other two were unable to be reached, so we have left their 2 votes on BOTH vote counts.

If either campaign wishes to update this scoreboard, simply update your list of public supporters on your websites and we’ll update our scoreboard as well. Where this will get interesting is when one campaign, likely the James campaign since they are currently in second place, claims that the commitments to the other campaign are not solid, and that they consider those votes up for grabs. Since these lists of commitments are based largely on written endorsements (on websites or on support cards), the trailing campaign will basically be saying that they believe a) those people’s commitments mean nothing and they can still get their vote (which is kind of like saying “I think you lack integrity, would you please vote for me?”) or b) that they know of some upcoming bombshell that is so huge that it will sway these people away from Candidate A to Candidate B. This should be fun… Stay tuned for more updates from West Washington!


Comments

  1. While fun indeed, this could be tricky. I personally collected endorsements for Lisa from state committeemen; all of whom are on Randy’s site. They all say they did not give permission nor did they even know they were on his site.

    Their names have not been added to Lisa’s site and remain on Randy’s. It seems several people have received less than pleasant phone calls from a disgruntled Pullen supporter when individuals she believes should support Randy are endorsing Lisa. There is no inference that Randy is aware or even approves of this but it is happening. In case he wants to moderate that, she is not nearly as busy this year as she was last year (job change) and may have too much time on her hands….

    While I can’t tell all of my secrets….When did you look at the lists to come up with those numbers? Some names have disappeared from Randy’s site, the Cavanaugh’s for instance.

    Any word yet on that donation to Mitchell by Randy in the general against a Republican? In light of proposal 3 at the county meeting, many are very interested.

    (STS, no need to chase me around the blogs today…I will be busy, out collecting endorsements and have no time to blog…sorry!)

  2. az_conservative_alltheway says

    Regarding Randy Pullen’s donation to Democrats Harry Mitchell AND Paul Johnson, both donations were given in 1998. While that doesn’t expose Randy because the bylaw was written (ex-post facto), it certainly should be discussed.

    Republicans worked very hard in 1998 to keep Senator Gary Richardson and defeat the Democrats attempt to defeat Gary with Harry Mitchell’s run. People viewed Harry Mitchell, former Mayor of Tempe, a likely candidate for Congress, and all he needed was to step into a legislative seat and run for Congress from there.

    When Randy Pullen gave a contribution to “Harry Mitchell for Senate” to defeat a REPUBLICAN just DAYS before the General Election, it certainly was an error in judgment which cannot be tolerated in a State Chairman.

    Not only did Randy Pullen’s donation (and others) fuel the victory of Harry Mitchell’s, but it definitely paved the way to Harry Mitchell’s ultimate victory last November, in which he defeated J.D. Hayworth.

    I don’t buy Randy explanation that his “employer” requested he give a donation. Give me a break! If he was loyal to Republicans at the time, he would have known our fears about Harry Mitchell’s future political aspirations.

    Ann, I too spoke with people at the Maricopa County meeting who had NO IDEA their name was listed on Randy Pullen’s website. I cautioned them to just leave it there, otherwise, they would endure the wrath of Pullen’s whip, the recently unemployed Senator from Scottsdale.

    This so-called “entrance poll” is bogus.

  3. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Hey AZ Conservative, I notice you’re on lots of blogs, just cutting and pasting the same stuff over and over again… What’s up with that? You just in the disinformation business?

    And what’s with all of these people who talked to people who know people who heard from people etc. except that none of these people have names? This is what they call spreading rumors and I can’t imagine it will have much traction…

    Even when AZ Conservative refers to Randy’s “whip”, he/she can’t even name names, choosing instead to describe the whip as the recently unemployed Senator from Scottsdale. Is that supposed to sound ominous? If you’re an unemployed Senator, why would anyone fear you or your “wrath”? And how come no one has ever seen this “whip” before?

    And can anyone even figure out who we’re talking about? I can’t think of an unemployed Senator from Scottsdale… Sounds like a bunch of mush to me… You fill out a card and say use my name as an endorsement and you go on a website. That’s real. But this other stuff doesn’t make the grade…

  4. I believe az_conservative meant unemployed Representative, not Senator.

  5. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Rosati? Puh-leeze… They want to say that Rosati is Pullen’s whip and folks are afraid of her wrath? Hee Hee… Too funny… The silly season is officially here…

    I can barely see a connection to a state committeeman from LD8 who might actually know Rosati or have to deal with her, but why would a state committeeman from say, LD19, not want to come out of the closet as a James supporter because they feared Colette Rosati? Okay, we’re laughing out loud here now…

  6. If you can stop the sarcasm long enough to consider not everyone is snarly, egocentric, or without disdain for insults and may be offended by such an intrusion, you just might get it. Those who invest their precious personal time to a purpose they feel has greater relevance and importance than their ego take these attacks seriously. You can attempt to trivialize what you have not experienced but for those who have, it was not anything they care to repeat. The reality of who they do or do not support is not the issue; the intimidation and manipulation attempts are shameful regardless of how visceral you believe they may be.

    The snide disregard for any position other than your own does little to bring a sense of truth or positive potential to the issue at hand. A couple of questions have been raised. Legitimate concerns, yet because of a double standard as to the right of discovery and acceptance of simpleton excuses….all is well. When another site posted the WISH list donors, without Mrs. Pullen, it was quite a story and parenthetical opinions were applied to those on the list. Much has been made of Republicans who have endorsed Dems, to the point of passing a proposal that is probably unlawful. Yet no answer to Randy Pullen making campaign contributions to both Harry Mitchell AND Paul Johnson in a general election against Republicans….other than to say, “His boss” told him to do so.

    You may be laughing, I find it very disturbing.

  7. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    No no, we’re laughing at the notion of people being afraid of Colette Rosati… If somebody had me on their website as a supporter and I wasn’t one, I can’t imagine that I’d leave it alone for fear of Colette Rosati’s wrath! See, now we’re laughing again…

  8. I love conversion experiences and I for one give a lot of “benefit of the doubt” to candidates who convert to a more conservative viewpoint. When, Representative Trish Groe first ran for the Legislature, she was endorsed by Planned Parenthood and I actively worked to elect the pro-life candidate in that race (as head of the Right to Life PAC). Not soon after, Trish became educated and informed and ultimately came to our side on the life issue. Planned Parenthood hated her and she realized who her friends were. Several times I publically acknowledged her “conversion” experience. Today, she is one of the most adamant pro-life legislators at the Capitol.

    Barbara Leff is also a convert to the pro-life side after becoming educated on life issues and finding that the “pro-choicers” sold her out in a heartbeat because she voted for a very reasonable parental consent bill. You’ll find Barbara Leff’s name as a donor to The Arizona WISH list when she attended their luncheon. She also didn’t know how about their stealth tactics to only elect “pro-abortion” Republicans. Incidentally, you won’t find pronounced pro-life women being helped or endorsed by WISH. This group uses the abortion issue as a strict criteria before they help a Republican woman. Senator Leff’s conversion did not sit well with this group.

    Over four years ago, Randy Pullen sat in my office (at AZ Right to Life) and I asked him about his position on life issues. He told me he was pro-life and I believed him. (I still do.)  Soon after, I stood before all the state committeemen and endorsed Randy Pullen for National Committeemen over Mike Hellon. He won by four votes that day. Since then, he has proved that he can work with Republicans in this “big tent” without caving on principle.

    When Randy Pullen asked me if I would endorse him again for State Chairman, I agreed. As one extremely pro-life Republican, I am glad to endorse Randy again because I know he is committed to the party platform.

    Sadly and angrily, I cannot say that about Senator John McCain because after bending over backward and practically begging him to return to his roots and the party platform, I feel he has stabbed me and others in the back. I simply cannot and won’t trust John McCain.

    DSW
    Former Executive Director, Arizona Right to Life

  9. Republican Conservative AZ says

    DSW,

    In case you are not aware of this election, John McCain is not up for State party Chairman.

    The race is between two pro-life candidates, Randy Pullen and Lisa James. Please speak to Lisa James about her pro-life views, and perhaps you will write a favorable support letter for her too.

  10. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Hey Eyes on West Washington, how about another update, eh? Unless Colette “fear me” Rosati has you too scared to say your own name?!

    That stuff is still funny…

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