Shadegg Standing by to Shift Political Chessboard

Politicker AZ has a brief post this morning about Congressman John Shadegg’s willingness to succeed John McCain should he win the Presidency. Shadegg is clearly the obvious and best choice for that seat and you won’t hear any objections from me. So I’ll leave that political contest as a given. But if you look beyond the successor of John McCain the vacancy left in CD-3 will place Arizona’s political chessboard in motion creating all kinds of excitement amongst politicos. State legislators (Waring/Gorman/Allen) and city councilman (Baier/Simplot) among others (Hatch-Miller) will scramble to jump in this race. School board members will scramble to follow state legislative seats and on and on… So I’m throwing it out to all you political observers – what kind of matrix can we expect to see when John McCain becomes President and John Shadegg becomes the next Senator from Arizona?


Comments

  1. Shane,
    While I’d be pretty excited about Shadegg as Senator, it’s a non-issue. We WILL have Obama as President. It’s been hashed to death that McLame is a RINO. Conservatives will not volunteer for, donate to, or vote for him. He doesn’t have the funding that the communist has, and the unwashed masses are dazzled by Hussein Obama’s non-message. Additonally, the talk-show hosts are all bashing McLame that his campaign is inept. I agree. All too often, he’s an apologist for his opponent or Dem Senators, and his ads are horrible. The Brittney Spears ad? What the heck was that?

    I’ve beat to death hat the RNC is broke, scandal-ridden, too many elected Republicans are retiring, and we’ve got tarnished Republicans still in office (Stevens, Renzi, Craig, etc.). On top of all that, the republicans’ “rebranding’ efforts have not only been a collosal failure, but they’ve been horrible propositions and too-little-too-late pandering. ALL of those things are going to be a drag on McLame’s campaign. Let’s just face the facts and admit that the Republican Party is dead in the water for this year’s elections (at least at the federal level). The REAL test to see whether or not that the Republicans will be worth voting for in the 2010 elections will be to watch the leadership races after the `08 slaughter. If the idiots we send to Washington vote for RINOs like Boehner and Blunt again, it’s OVER for this party because they will not have gotten the message that voters have been trying to send them since before `06: MOVE TO THE RIGHT! If they get a clue and vote for leaders like Pence and Shadegg (or even Flake and Ron Paul!), I’ll give them another 2-year shot.

    Again, McLame is DONE in this election. He’s just not running an exciting campaign. Obama goes on a world tour and McLame goes to a restaurant to campaign? Forget it, the election is over and Obama WILL be President. So, Shadegg as Senator is a nice, welcome pipedream, but it’s googols of lightyears out of reach.

  2. PoliticoMafioso! Help!

  3. I am out of ideas for pseudonyms says

    I can’t follow that logic. AF above is convinced Obama will win BECAUSE McCain is not far right enough?

    It’s not Little League. It IS whether you win or lose, especially when losing means Obama wins.

  4. Haven’t seen a response from Tony GOPrano yet, so let me throw in my $.02, DSW.

    Antifederalist, I completely agree that McCain is a RINO (hear my podcast here:

    http://voiceoflibertypodcast.com/2008/02/04/a-momentous-decision—.aspx

    or here (for the text version)

    http://voiceoflibertypodcast.com/2008/01/31/a-sober-analysis-of-the-status-quo.aspx

    But . . . fear is a strong motivator. I am the father of two young sons, and I care deeply about their future. Given the choice, I must support McCain, and I believe that there are many other conservatives just like me. I’m not willing to cut my nose off to spite my face. And hope against hope, if McCain makes a good VP choice, a brighter future awaits. Yes, he’s not our first choice, but he’s far and away the better choice, and sober, logical adults will elect him. Moreover, Senator Obama can’t seem to crack 50%, when he ought to be up by 20 points. The longer this impotence goes on, the more unhinged his campaign will become, and there is plenty of time between now and the election for Obama to take aim at his foot and pull the trigger. And trust me, he will.

    Make no mistake, Obama will not be our next president – I’m doing a series on it at http://www.voiceoflibertypodcast.com. And as a conservative who’s no fan of McCain’s, I can honestly state that I strongly prefer him over Obama. It’s guys like me who will make the difference.

  5. Keen Observer says

    When throwing names into the ring for the Congressional seat next time around, don’t forget Dean Martin and Sam Crump.

    This will be one very large primary with a lot of casualties.

  6. Unless there’s a recount, November 5th will be a big day in Arizona politics.

  7. It’s a shame we can’t have a better tempered Senator, like Trent Franks. I’d bet on Waring. He walks just about as many doors every election as Jim Ogsbury just did. No wonder they both are so thin.

  8. GOP Boomer Gal says

    I agree 100% with John. I WILL not throw in the towel and accept that Obama will be our next president. That would be a disaster for our country.

  9. Antifederalist…You can call John McCain all the names you wnat…Sticks & Stones etc, etc. The rest of us will be calling him Mr. President come January 20, 2009! You say the RNC is broke? Well sir, you couldn’t be more wrong. RNC outraises the DNC X 5
    Why are the polls so close after BHO’s World Tour? Let’s look at today’s Rasmussen Poll. New data released today shows that 30% of Conservative Democrats intend to vote for John McCain
    Where was this great bounce for Obama? Obama’s Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in USA Today/Gallup Poll
    You say John McCain is done; I say he is just getting started. NEVER underestimate John McCain Mr. Anti. Voters all across America are going to elect him as the next President. America doesn’t want another photo op President. Sorry this took so long DSW; we have had our grand kids here for the last 5 weeks so my Blog time has been limited.

  10. Antifederalist says

    Tony,
    The RNC recently fired it’s telephone fundraising staff. It’s also had to deal with an accounting and embezzlement scandal. Further, the party has to contend with about 25 seats where incumbents have just up and retired because they don’t like being in the minority. Good riddance. Most are RINOs anyway. However, this puts TREMENDOUS pressure on the RNC to fund an overwhelming number of races in Congress. While in June the RNC may have outraised the DNC, the RNC has to make that money stretch….additionally, it looks like the DNC didn’t bother to raise cash at all in the same period since it had only $1M on hand. Doesn’t sound impressive to me, Tony.

    Further, while McLame may well draw some Indeps and conservative Dems, as I said above, true small-government conservatives are going to sit home as they did during `06. I’ll even give you that maybe 20% of Dems voting for “Her Thighness” will not vote for BO, but the Dems are excited overall. Again, they bothered to vote in primaries, outvoting Rs in many places, and the Dems just don’t do that. Their numbers are going to be even greater in the general.

    Additionally, Tony, if you want to throw around poll numbers, take a look at the polls on Real Clear Politics, upper right hand corner of the front page. RCP does a good job of listing lots of polls and aggregating them. More polls favor Obama than McLame. You can blow all the sunshine you want, buddy, go ahead and delude yourself, but the truth of the matter is that the Republican Party is slowly dying because it’s been taken over by RINOs. McLame is gonna be an election casualty because he’s part of the problem. The cure? Electing conservatives. Why? because strong partisans stir the passions and can draw those from across the aisle. Reagan did it, and the sell-out DeLay noted the benefits of partisanship in his exit speech. RINOs on the other hand suppress the base. We saw it in `06, and we’re gonna see it in spades this year.

  11. AF – McCain is rapidly closing the gap with Obama. Obama’s arrogance, lack of experience and gaffs are showing, and all the media sucking up to him isn’t going to help.

    If McCain has enough money, he’ll win.

    BTW, I voted for that nutjob Ernie Hancock over McCain in the 2004 senate race. Voting for McCain this time.

  12. Dean Martin would be good. Very sound financially. So would Sam.

  13. nightcrawler says

    Anti-Intellectual,

    Haven’t heard from you for while. Saved up enough money to buy another roll of tin foil ? Exactly how many people do you pretend to speak for ? If your predictions are correct imagine the washout of your ‘conservative’ heroes come election day. You will have lost your voice for decades to come. The demographics are different this time around. There will be no repeat of 1980 if McCain doesn’t win. You will be reduced to handing out leaflets at the bus stop.

  14. Antifederalist,
    Tony is right and you are wrong but you are entitled to be wrong. There will be Republicans voting against McCain. We know them well, we know them all. Both of them.
    Now if you promise to stop calling our Senator stupid childish names, I promise I’ll stop thinking of you as a Wacko, or a Cross-threaded Right Wing Nut.
    Shane, thanks for seeing the light, it appears there is a God in Heaven after all.
    John and Boomer Girl, whatever reasons you need to vote for McCain it’s OK by me.
    Alli Cat, Jim Waring is fine but there may be others in waiting.
    Keen Observer you give me chills, very cold chills, Dean WHO?

  15. The Shadegg article had it right. IF McCain wins, then the Governor appoints – a Republican it must be, just as she appointed Mayes to ACC. Will Mayes get picked again? No, because she would want the seat two years hence, which the Governor would also want. Awkwaaaard. So, the Gov appoints a Republican with a moderate reputation who will work with her but not seek reelection either because he/she doesn’t care all that much for the job or is of an advanced enough age that they are more interested in retirement. I’m thinking a Republican from a moderate area — like Southern Arizona. Hmmmm. I wonder who that might be?

  16. Boy – it’s going to be fun watching all of the posters on this site bitch and moan after President Obama is sworn into office. Of course, it’ll be even worse after Candy Thomas loses the next Governor’s election to Terry Goddard.

  17. FYI – a new poll shows McCain is only up 5-points here in AZ, down from his earlier lead of 15. Could it be that the state’s senior senator won’t even carry his home state?

  18. Back to the original intent…who would replace Shadegg in CD3 when he wins the McCain’s soon to be former Senate seat.

    Dean Martin — statewide name ID, solid voting record in Senate, never lost an election
    Jim Waring — well liked, incredibly hard-working
    Pam Gorman — conservative cute and very determined
    Sam Crump — conservative, incredibly smart
    Sean Noble — the 800 pound gorilla
    Others?

    I say its Sean’s if he wants it. Dean and Jim would be the next top 2 contenders.

  19. The Arizona Taxpayers Federation scorecard has them all ranked as strong fiscal conservatives. They’re all pro-life. What’s the difference between them?

  20. Not taking anything away from the crowd, Sean would be a great replacement for a remarkable Congressman. He could take over without missing a step.

    John McCain WILL BE the next POTUS. This is more than speculation, it is our reality.

    AF…sorry hon, you are suffering for sure. Hopefully, you will find a remedy for what ails you.

  21. Just Win Baby says

    Noble has no voting record, no base, no anything really, except maybe access to his boss’ donors (and that’s worth something). Look at who the Club for Growth would support and that will give you a good indication of who will win. Those guys rarely lose and a district this red guarantees that they’ll play here!

    It won’t be Martin ’cause he sold us out on the convention centers (yes Dean, we remember!) and likley wouldn’t be Waring because he’s seen as way too close to McCain (who is not exactly adored by the Club). So you’ve got Gorman, Crump, and who knows who else…

  22. Here’s couple of wildcards…Chad Kirkpatrick runs the AZ Federation of Taxpayers and he lives in that district. I’ve met him at the LD6 district meetings and he seems like a solid guy and has a lot of money. I hear Crump and Clark tried to talk him into running for Clark’s seat and he said no, so who knows if he’d be interested in running.

    Andy Thomas would be perfect too. He easily carried this district in other races and has a lot of grassroots support. Its a solid Republican district and like Trent Franks he’d represent it well on both fiscal and social issues.

  23. You gotta have name ID and money to be considered a credible candidate for CD-3. Waring, Gorman, Crump, and Hatch-Miller lead that list.

    Let’s go back to a U.S. Senate vacancy and appointment. The Governor gets to appoint. Who do you think she’d set up [to create all kinds of havoc in the GOP]? That leaves one name – Grant Woods – UGH!

  24. Alex P. Keaton says

    I don’t see how Nappy puts Shadegg in McCain’s seat. I agree w/ an earlier post that it would be someone like Kolbe. If all of this were to play out, just think about the race for this Senate seat in 2010. If someone like Kobe gets put in – and then steps aside – we could have heavyweights like Shadegg, Hayworth, Woods, Flake and Salamon all going toe to toe for the nomination…

  25. I say the appointment comes from Southern Arizona. I’m thinking a well regarded elected official who is nearing retirement age. And his appointment would open up a vacancy that D’s would likely pick up. Anyone want to walk up to the plate and take a swing at who I’m thinking about?

  26. What a lot of useless speculation on something that simply won’t happen. It all is predicated on McCain winning the Presidency. That’s almost as useless as planning for how I want to prepare the pork when pigs fly out my ass…

  27. Well! What a surprise, a goofball liberal graces our presence with a comment. I guess you want someone to read your writings seeing as how very few people actually read your own blog.

  28. Has anyone checked out TonyGOPrano’s website today? It’s pretty good.

  29. I’m a liberal and I’m pretty sure McCain will win. To be doing as well as he is with such a horribly-run campaign is pretty amazing and shows that the Rove playbook still works: they’ve smeared Obama so that he, like Kerry after the Swift Boat ads, is probably already unelectable.

    It is astounding to me that the biggest issue, the one that most American families are concerned with day to day, the economy, never ever seems to surface on blogs like this. All of you, I guess, I really doing incredibly well financially and not struggling like many middle-class people are.

  30. To the loser trying to smear Richard Grayson, you are exhibit A of why Democrats are the part of hate.

  31. The best John McCain has been able to do is savage Barack Obama’s character in order to bring himself up to a tie in Gallup, whereas Research 2000, CNN, etc. have McCain down 4-7 points. And Obama’s still crushing McCain in electoral count at both RCP and Pollster. Hell, McCain’s losing in the FOX poll.

    This is without Obama really even trying to fight back.

    I just watched Fox and they had McCain’s communciations director, Tucker something, and the best he could was repeat the word “celebrity” over and over and over. In a delicious Orwellian twist, the McCain campaign scrubbed this:

    “A political celebrity, McCain is considered a top contender for the nomination.”

    from their website.

    If this is the best the McCain campaign has, heh, good luck with that. Obama beat Hillary. McCain is nothing compared to that.

    ASU will have their new AZ poll out next week. We’ll see how well McCain is doing. Every dollar McCain has to spend here is one he can’t spend in Ohio and Florida.

    Remember, as George W. Bush taught us, we don’t need to win by 20. We just need to win by 1.

  32. Keep telling yourself it is all the fault of the horrible Republicans and their penchant for mud. It’s just not true. Obama gave much more than he ever got and didn’t get half of what he deserves.

    His own words, actions, friendships, relationships, all of his own choosing will be his undoing. The hubris surrounding him is almost as high pitched as the rhetoric.

    He will long be remembered as the example of arrogance over intelligence and his demise the evidence of the fruits of such labor.

  33. Ann,

    I’m just stating it as I see it, my “own reality”, as it were. 😉

    Of course, when President Thompson puts his hand… Oh. Ooops. 🙂

  34. You are so cute!

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