Salmon Holds Commanding 30 Point Lead

CONTACT: Adam Deguire

Opponents in Dead Heat for 2nd Place Among Likely Primary Voters

EAST VALLEY – Former Congressman and candidate for Arizona’s 6th Congressional District Matt Salmon today announced his campaign to return to Congress holds a commanding early lead in the race for the Republican nomination. In a recent survey conducted by top Arizona polling firm, Arizona Opinion, Salmon received a 30 point advantage over his closest competitor:

If the Republican primary election to choose a candidate to represent this area in the U.S. House were held today, for whom would you vote? [Rotate] Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams, OR Chuck Gray?

38.3% Matt Salmon
8.3% Kirk Adams
6.5% Chuck Gray
47.0% Undecided, Refused

The scientific survey (attached) of 400 likely primary voters in the current Congressional District 6 was conducted over July 18-19. Nearly 92% of those surveyed said they were certain to vote in next year’s primary election.

Dr. Margaret Kenski, President of Arizona Opinion, stated, “Certainly this poll indicates that Matt Salmon begins his campaign with a significant advantage over his opponents. Salmon is in a strong position to earn the support among those who remain undecided and increase his lead towards the all-important 50 percent level.”

“As I continue to meet with people throughout the community, I have been humbled by the overwhelmingly strong support my campaign has received,” said Matt Salmon. “The results of this survey reflect what I have been seeing and hearing every day. There is still much more work to be done, but it is clear that we need to change the direction that our country is headed by sending the most experienced and principled leaders back to Congress. I look forward to sharing more about my track record of reducing spending, balancing the budget, and fighting for conservative values.”

About Arizona Opinion
Arizona Opinion is an Arizona-based consulting firm with survey and other data-based research and focus groups and experience dating back to 1978. Located in Tucson, the firm has conducted research for organizations, campaigns, and candidates for all levels of state, local, and municipal government.

Dr. Margaret Kenski has served as a pollster for the Arizona Republican Party, Congressmen Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, and Jeff Flake, Senator Jon Kyl, Governors Jane Dee Hull and Fife Symington, and numerous other state and local candidates and ballot proposition committees. Kenski has also conducted survey research on ballot measures and proposed legislation for such diverse entities as the Beer and Wine Distributors of Arizona, Intel, Qwest, and the Arizona State University Foundation.

About Matt Salmon
Matt Salmon was first elected to the United States Congress in 1994 and served until 2000, honoring his term limit pledge. A proud fiscal conservative, Salmon was rated in the top five among all 535 members of the House and Senate by Citizen’s Against Government Waste for all six years he was in office. He is a lifetime member of the NRA with an A+ rating and also earned a 100% rating by the National Right to Life. He was also the proud recipient of the American Cancer Society’s “Top National Elected Official” award.

Matt Salmon has received endorsements from Arizona Congressman Trent Franks, former Arizona Congressman John Shadegg, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, East Valley mayors Gail Barney (Queen Creek), Hugh Hallman (Tempe) and John Insalaco (Apache Junction).




  1. Steve Calabrese says

    Huh? 45% of likely voters are over 60?

    And no name rotation on the crucial question, i.e., having the names cycle through so that each call has a different name at the top, so that any one candidate is named first only 33% of the time?

    And a sample size of 400?

    Sheesh, Chuck Coughlin is slipping in his old age.

    Seems to be a fairly straight breakdown on LD’s, though.

    • Steve Calabrese says

      A Salmon staffer has assured me that the names were rotated. Although I feel that should have been pointed out in the initial breakdown, I am thankful for the clarification.

  2. Great to see Matt giving a new comer a chance to work campaigns in AZ –

    “Adam Deguire, the 24-year-old executive director of the Hawaii Republican Party , first became interested in politics after the Sept. 11 attacks when he was a political science and history student at the University of Arizona” – Star Bulletin Vol. 13, Issue 202 – Sunday, July 20, 2008

    Maybe adam will become the same type of conservative pillar that Glen Hamer has become after being placed by Matt as the Director of the AZ Repbulican Party and then Matt helped Glen become the Exec Dir at the AZ Chamber of Commerce that advocates amnesty.

  3. @ Steve – Im just plain folk from mesa, but are you saying that the pollsters are lyin and twisting the facts? Is Matt trying to paint a picture that isnt true?

    Kinda like he went to all those District meetings to sell Water world (or wave yard or whatever) and promised that even thought the Mesa taxpayers would pay 1/4 million for an election and pay for the bonds up front, that somehow through hooky pooky magic, they would end up not spending any money? I guess that was only valid if the thing was built. Oh wait, it was a placeholder so they could build a new Cubs stadium.

  4. Conveniently Anonymous says

    The election is 13 months away and without defined district boundaries. Paying for a poll seems like a bit of a waste at this point. All this really shows is that Salmon has better name recognition at this point. You would think that with such a “commanding” lead he could have out raised Adams last quarter especially since he had an extra month too.

  5. Anonymous, yes it’s 13 months out and there’s a long way to go. Not a waste though as this takes the wind out of the sails of Adams a bit. Salmon doesn’t have better name ID, no one even knows Adams. Adams should have beaten Salmon by much more given the amount of time Adams has unofficially been running and being the sitting speaker. $25,000 isn’t going to make up a 30 pt deficit. Big check writers know that.

    • Conveniently Anonymous says

      Salmon has “unofficially” been running for office for 20 years and he still could not raise more money than Adams when he had an extra month and we both know he was doing everything he could to comenout strong. The poll is for sure an attempt to knock the wind out of Adams’ sails but recent moves by the Salmon campaign clearly show that Salmon’s sails are limp and trying catch up.

      Maybe the next move for Salmon would be to announce a Joe the Plumber and Steven Segal endorsement.

  6. 13 months for the Log Cabin Republicans to work on Salmons campaign. It will be interesting to see how that plays in an east valley district.

  7. Is Mesa Mayor Scott Smith endorsing Salmon? He is now the Second Vice President of the US Conference of Mayors working with his friend, the President of the USCM, Antonio Villaraigoso from Los Angeles.

  8. Is Scott Smith supporting this action by the Us conference of mayors?

    And will he bring that agenda to the Matt Salmon campaign? Maybe he can get his buddy Antonio Villagraigoso to come and help campaign for Salmon, that Viva La Raza chant will be a big surprise to Arpaio.

  9. Scott Smith can certainly use Matt Salmons help to get Light Rail extended into Mesa, since Smith has made that a priority for Mesa.

  10. Wow Bob, you’re a sleezy piece of trash.

  11. azcowpoke says

    To me the question he needs to answer if why him and not the others? I don’t see many specific things except that he used to be in Congress. Jobs, immigration, national security, the economy, etc.–where is he?

    I don’t have a clue yet who to support. But being a ex-Congressman and lobbyist is not enough to sway me.

    I want someone who is going to have some impact not just part of the crowd.

  12. SuzanneC says

    I spoke to Matt Salmon last night, living in the 6th congressional district I am very intrested in what he and the rest of the field is saying. He assured me he is very much in support of SB1070 and he tried sending the troops to the border in the late 1990s. Yesterday Sheriff Joe and Russell Pearce endorsed him, that to me speaks of Matt Salmon’s commitment to the law and order we need to control our borders and stop the invasion by the mauraders.

    Then at the end of the evening he put on a concert for all of us singing a tribute to Elvis. And we need a really good Elvis impersonator in the halls of Congress to lighten the mood. He has my voted, LOL. Ok now for the posters here that will call me names for being so shallow, IT IS A JOKE. But with the two endorsements he received I will support and vote for Matt.

  13. Alan Soelberg says

    @Bob, numerous reasons that Salmon isn’t the best person for CD6. CD6 doesn’t want a lobbyist or a sellout politician who values votes over values (see Arpaio flip ). However, your July 26 10:52pm and 10:53pm comments on this post are both completely irrelevant and classless.

    Stick to issues that matter. Heaven knows there are plenty of them.

  14. Phoenix48 says

    SuzanneC thinks a Matt Salmon Elvis cut up is enough to give up her franchise to this twerp?

    Well Cheap and Easy – does it bother you that this Pol has a track record far more extensive than what Bob has noted in repeated posts?

    Such as back in the day, Arizona was the #1 southwest destination, and Jane Hull had cleaned up after the Symington mess to allow that to happen. This state was a true Goldwater conservative paradise. Business’ wanted to start here and move here because we had re-established ourselves as a business friendly low tax state; by any estimation year in and year out going into the 21st century we were the pro-growth MODEL.

    We were TEXAS before Texas was Texas. (at least with our current legislature we are trying to get back there)

    And as a member of the majority conservative congressional caucus – Matt Salmon deserves credit for helping Jane and the legislature lay the ground work for the greatest economic boom – arguably – this state has ever enjoyed.

    And then Matty decided he was the one to be Governor during this great time of peace and prosperity. (and many agreed) But he ran the worst campaign since Spanky and Our Gang. And he made Janet Napolitano’s impossible dream come true – and proceeded to unleash a nightmare upon conservatives in this state.

    Not only did he hand the governors mansion to the most unlikely candidate since Janet Reno, he then manuvred to take hold of the Party Chair, helping to ensure NOBODY WOULD CUT HER PROGRESSIVE NIGHTMARE DOWN TO A SINGLE TERM. Which only cemented the realilzation that he was never suited to be governor in the first place!

    We have as a state suffered so much as a result of the doofus mishaps of this mans imbecillic incompetence! Progressives decended upon this state like locusts once Napolitano took that mansion – and this is the fool who opend that door.

    And THE PARTY HE RAN WAS A FRACTURED AND IMPOTENT MESS! Shouldn’t he be held responsible for this stuff? Or has his accomplishments as a fever swamp lobbyist since being out of office so indespensible? Really?

    I care not one whit for the new improved model being hawked here. I have already made my displeasure known to Trent Franks why I now seriously doubt how he can win back my trust going forward having fallen back in love with the past and what might have been.

    I do not like this man. I don’t care how much he has changed or how much he has learned. I believe he is indirectly responsible for the kinds of intercene warefare we have had in county governmernt regarding the immigration referrundums – because we should have had uninterrupted prosperous conservative governance during those boom years.

    Instead you had these insurgent progressives who were able to win appointments and fester in our county & state government because of the Napolitano gang. A woman today who is the right arm of the worst president this country has ever endured, and, who assists that president in trying to treat Arizona like we are the equivalent of the new racist south and thus exhibit A to be sued in court and generally mis-treated as a rouge state.

    I don’t care what convinced anyone to endorce him. There is nothing amusing about Matt Salmon to me. He can take his Elvis impersonation to the circus. He had his chance in the arena, and he did enough damage for one lifetime thank you.

  15. ChandlerConservative says

    I see this as a desperate move by the Salmons campaign. He get’s his butt kicked in fundraising by Adams in the Q2 and needed to do something to deflat Adam’s momentum. Why else would he release a poll 13 months out when the district boundaries are not set???? He needed to show that he still has the highest name recognition so he could keep his donor base (which again, was less impressive than Adams by far).

    So the poll show’s he has high name ID. Adam’s will have the $’s to overcome that if his fundraising machine continues to churn out the big donors.

    But high name ID is no going to help when people start learning/associating that with his work as a lobbyist and his work against bringing the F35 to Luke. How’s he going to explain that he’s been absent from solving issues the past 8 years while leaders like Gray & Adams stayed in the fight? I could keep going but I’ll let the Salmons campaign figure out all their week spots…oh and there is plenty.

    This is going to be an interesting race for sure

  16. Chandler- Adams was far from kicking his butt. $25k is peanuts when you are down 30 points and have no name ID. No one was expecting Salmon to beat Adams in fundraising but you are right that this will put a major damper in his fundraising.
    His “donor base” is 10 years old.
    Bak to the point you made yourself, if a 30 pt deficit deflates his fundraising base, how is he going to be able to buy the name ID?

    I don’t think for a second that it will be a 60-40 outcome but let’s not pretend there aren’t issues.

    By the way, I got the polling call and am in the undecided camp.

    • Conservative Guy says

      Adams out raised Salmon by much more than $30k. He beat Salmon by almost $40k in primary funds and $30k in general election funds. Thats if you count the $10k loan Salmon gave to his campaign. Adams had a month less time as well which puts Salmon at a much bigger disadvantage.

      The problem for Salmon is that he has not been around while Adams has been tackling some of the state’s toughest issues (balancing the budget, pension reform, cutting taxes, creating jobs). Adams has a much better message and more money. There is no way the Salmon campaign would have conducted and released this poll so early if it were not a move to try and catch up.

      It will be interesting to see it all play out but I will bet that this is the last poll we see being released from the Salmon campaign.

    • ChandlerConservative says

      I’m not sure where the 25K number you have came from.
      Adams raised $230K in 45 days. $30K~ much be reserved for the general – so roughly he raised $200k
      Salmon raised $162 in twice the time using $10k of his own money in there. So that a $38K difference (including Matt’s loan amount).

      Adams for sure had a very impressive 45 days especially when you consider it was in Q2 of the year prior to the election when $’s are hard to come by. I think this will be the tell tale quarter for fundraising. He he puts up another 250K+ and Salmon doesn’t match, then Matt’s in for a very tough road.

      I don’t believe for a second that this silly poll will dampen Adams ability to raise $’s. He’s got the who’s who of fundraisers in the state and has great credibility with the business community. And Matt very well may have picked off all his low hanging fruit and could see his $’s dry up.

      Name ID can be bought and both Adams & Gray have messages that sell. Plus neither has negatives that Salmons has. Just look at our president to see what $’s can buy (god i hate saying that).

      I’m in the “favoring” Adams camp but respect all three competitors.

  17. I did some quick math.
    Adams raised $230,000
    $36,000 can’t be used against Salmon leaving $194,000.
    Salmon raised $172,000 including his $10,000 loan, all of which can be used.
    194-172=$22,000 advantage. 9 max out donors.
    As I mentioned above, 9 max donors is not a butt kicking.

  18. Chad Heywood says

    Any references veiled or otherwise to someone’s family or staff is B.S. and will not be tolerated by our campaign. If you are an Adams supporter keep it clean. Your not doing us any favors. Respectfully requesting SA pull those posts.

  19. Phillip the Great says

    Oh, wait, this is the most interesting action on SA in many, many months. Pull posts? Bunk. And “keep it clean” is code for “we hadn’t heard that just yet but are working hard to use it to our advantage.”

    I’d like to hear some anecdotes from you politicians about how you had the opponent’s junk and didn’t use it in some form. Or, better, decided to not use it (after some decent polling, of course) and went on to brag about how “above the fray” they are. Perhaps one of the Kyl staff can pipe up about Pederson’s son’s drug bust.

    There is no code of ethics in political campaigns. Can you guys all agree on that?

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