Red to Red.

foghorn.jpg      According to the latest poll from SurveyUSA, Representative J.D. Hayworth enjoys a comfortable lead over Harry Mitchell. The survey shows J.D. ahead by 12 percentage points, outside the 4.1% margin of error. The details of the poll do not bode well for the future of the Democratic Party in AZ CD 5. Hayworth enjoys his highest level of support among generation Y voters (the youngest segment in the survey.)

     For those of you keeping track, the trend is clearly in Hayworth’s favor. The last SurveryUSA poll from May ’06 only showed J.D. up by 5%.

     The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has this as one of their priority races, even making the First Wave. With the current numbers I sure hope they dump a bunch of money into this one so there is less available for the AZ CD 8 race.

Tuesday 9-19-06, 4:00 am


  1. The race is closer than that. SUSA oversampled Republicans.

    Who the hell is SUSA calling? 76% support for J.D. from Gen Y? That’s not believable.

  2. Oro Valley Dad says

    When I saw the numbers I was concerned about just that point. But if you look at the district it is 44% Republican and 27% Democrats. The sample was likely voters so if Republicans are more likely to vote then the sample could still be valid. Either way it is not looking good for Harry.

    If you want you can track the polls at Real Clear Politics.

  3. I think JD wins by 22, Kyl by 32.

  4. Oro Valley Dad says

    I like conservatives as much as the next guy but them’s some big numbers.

  5. I’m in JD’s district and if I had to bet on that race I’d give it to Harry.

    Not that I’m “wild about Harry” but I’ve been to one to many GOP district meetings, events where JD was the speaker and left thinking what a BLOW HARD. If I’m feeling that way, I have to wonder how Joe average voter is feeling.

    And those yrd signs with the 24″ JD letters! what an Ego.

    Now I will probably get slammed for saying this but …..if JD had any balls at all he would have been our candidate against Janet.

  6. Are you really sure the SUSA poll is good news for J.D.? Because the NRCC paid for an internal in the Fifth and haven’t released the results yet…

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