Real Clear Politics: McCain over Hayworth by 23 points

The latest, and most comprehensive of all published polls in this race, make clear that Senator John McCain has taken a commanding lead over the closest other candidate, JD Hayworth.  If the election were held today, John McCain would be the determined winner over JD with a 52% to 29% voter breakdown, 14%  for Another Candidate and 5% undecided.  The calls for Jim Deakin to drop out are clearly a last ditch strategy but, according to this poll, even that would not give Hayworth a winning margin.  

US Senate Primary Ballot Test

McCain 52%, Hayworth 29%, Another Candidate 14%, Undecided 5%

The poll likely does not show the full impact of the revealing JD “huckster” ad, as it was conducted on the day the story became news on cable stations and was then picked up by many media outlets.

Conducted by the Republican data group, Magellan Strategies, it reached out to 1139 likely voters across the state.  Very indicative of the outcome of the election are the negative numbers for both candidates.

It is quite revealing that the number of folks who have an unfavorable rating of Senator McCain is 1% less than the number of folks with a postive image of Hayworth.

Senate Candidate Image Ratings:

John McCain:   Favorable 60%, Unfavorable 37% 

JD Hayworth:    Favorable 38%, Unfavorable 50%

Magellan gives McCain good marks for his statewide voter image as an incumbent in this era of anti-incumbency while labeling Hayworth as “upside down” in his favorability ratings; having a far larger number of folks with a unfavorable image than a positive image of any candidate is not a good thing in the final leg of a primary race.

Senator McCain is most strong among women who give him a 36 point advantage.  Hayworth does not lead in any group polled in any category.


Comments

  1. Jack Hammer says

    Molly (Lisa)

    Just about where Spector stood 60 days prior to his comeuppance!

    We’re just getting “revved up”

    Hang on kid!

  2. Michael Holliday says

    Listen, everything is on the line!

    There is only one goal here from the McCain camp: get JD to quit!

    Every effort will be made to make this happen; no stone will remain unturned.

    The purpose of this poll is to get the voter to throw in the towel for the inevitability of a McCain victory.

    I agree with Jackhammer. The worm will turn! ‘Tis the season!

  3. The one flaw in mollys logic here is if mccain had such a commanding lead and jd was faltering so bad, why agree to debates that give jd free air time, press, chances to score points on mccain and chances for him to screw up.
    The benefits if he really was up this much are so small that it would make no sense. Mccains own polls must not have his lead anywhere near this.

  4. Michael Holliday says

    #johnny Says:
    June 28th, 2010 at 1:35 pm

    The one flaw in molly’s logic here is if mccain had such a commanding lead and jd was faltering so bad, why agree to debates that give jd free air time, press, chances to score points on mccain and chances for him to screw up.

    The benefits if he really was up this much are so small that it would make no sense. Mccains own polls must not have his lead anywhere near this.
    _____

    Johnny, good points!

    What will solidify JD’s position is when Deakin comes to his senses and comes over to our side. Preferably before the debates. Not for JD’s own good, but for Deakin’s. However well intentioned, he’s simply outclassed.

    I’m interested in JD’s response to the spurious “Baghdad Bob” and “Hanoi Jane” polls!

    Ha, ha!

  5. Michael Holliday says

    If the election were held today, John McCain would be the determined winner over JD with a 52% to 29% voter breakdown, 14% for Another Candidate and 5% undecided.
    _____

    But it’s not being held today.

    Any “X-factor” could strike McCain and further diminish his numbers. McCain has taken all of his best shots at eroding JD.

    JD’s been keeping his powder dry for a big salvo.

    Once JD makes his border position widely known vs. McCain, who gave us Obama and wants to bring us amnesty, coupled with any negative illegal alien press, JD will surge.

    It’s way to early to reach negative conclusions. Though it’s in McCain’s best interest!

  6. McCain is counting on people being uneducated and believing everything the media spews and the lying ads that McCain’s money buys. I believe the hardworking JD supporters will overcome the attacks of McCain. We know the truth and we are making sure that everyone we know knows the truth too.

  7. Jacklyn M. says

    Rachel, That’s just it. The more truth that is known, the farther in poll-debt JD sinks.

    Did you see that AGAIN Glenn Beck was lambasting JD? http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/42375/

    Free hookers!

  8. Jack Hammer (and Carlist and Jacobite…among some of the names you comment as),

    You tell on yourself. Your frequent posts using a variety of names (I do get the IP addresses and originating email) but always seeking to cast some public persona on others explains a lot. You are the deceiver trying to cast that image onto others. How appropriate that you would support a candidate who is so contrary to the person he tries to portray.

    It also illustrates the reality of the Hayworth Belief System, hereafter referred to as BS. If I say it often enough and loud enough and I get 2 or 3 others to do it too….we can win!

    Sorry bucko…

    For all others:

    MORE Hayworth BS:

    1)No inside work here. This was an independent poll. No intention other than to inform. The story it tells is strictly a side note, uncomfortable though it is.

    2) Specter was never over 47% and Sestak was never under 37% at this point, 10 points NOT 26! Their repsective negatives were not close to Hayworth.

    3)It is an insult to the voters of this state to expect them to be ignorant and uninformed as the only means to a McCain victory.

    4)The arrogance and lack of personal accountability that is JD Hayworth is exemplified in your comments.

    5)John McCain agreed to debate because, even though he didn’t “need” it like JD does, he is not afraid of it either. The public will be better served with a debate.

    6)JD would have made a point of it no matter what… agree, he is afraid and not sure of his victory… not agree, he is afraid and not sure of his victory. Pretty basic strategy.

    DeAnn writes:
    “I believe the hardworking JD supporters will overcome the attacks of McCain. We know the truth and we are making sure that everyone we know knows the truth too.”

    JD cannot overcome the reality of JD. HIS choices, HIS record, HIS own actions. Calling foul and flopping all over the floor might work in basketball but this ain’t a game. He is his own worst enemy.

    And according to this poll…you got one thing right. Everyone else knows the truth already.

  9. Michael Holliday says

    Jacklyn M. Says:

    Rachel, That’s just it. The more truth that is known, the farther in poll-debt JD sinks.

    Did you see that AGAIN Glenn Beck was lambasting JD?
    _____

    Glenn Beck has a small footprint on local radio station KTAR, also Beck seen on FOX at an irregular hour. He is not the end all be all of conservatism.

    Rush Limbaugh, the biggest and best, went to bat for JD.

    While I agree with Beck on some issues, on other issues he’s amateurish and clownish.

    I joke around but Beck goes ballistic.

    Anyway, watch the situation turn…in JD’s favor.

  10. Michael Holliday says

    Molly Pitcher says:

    JD cannot overcome the reality of…HIS record.
    _____

    Yeah, his 100% pro-life record is really weak!

    Molly, it’s too early to tell.

    Deakin is the wild card and any X-factor or “Black Swan” event could effect the outcome.

    If it were late July, I might consider the poll as more significant.

    It’s time to do the debates and let the chips fall where they may.

  11. Michael Holliday says

    I’m sick of all this poll psychological warfare and propaganda.

    Let JD use his own phones to have his callers conduct a poll on who they’d vote for and why and what issues they want to see addressed.

    I’ll even help out if you want.

    We are at a critical point and the prize is huge. I believe any tactic will be used by McCain to get JD to throw in the towel.

    I believe these polls about as much as I believe Moody’s or Standard and Poor’s ratings on stocks and banks, and they were considered world-class.
    I
    n other words I don’t give them much credibility. Not in today’s climate of “everything for sale.”

    JD must drive on and tell McCain, “Nuts!”

  12. Michael Holliday says

    I’m sick of all this poll psychological warfare and propaganda.

    Let JD use his own phones to have his callers conduct a poll on who they’d vote for and why and what issues they want to see addressed.

    I’ll even help out if you want.

    We are at a critical point and the prize is huge. I believe any tactic will be used by McCain to get JD to throw in the towel.

    I believe these polls about as much as I believe Moody’s or Standard and Poor’s ratings on stocks and banks, and they were considered world-class.

    In other words I don’t give them much credibility. Not in today’s climate of “everything for sale.”

    JD must drive on and tell McCain, “Nuts!”

  13. Jack Hammer says

    Lisa (Molly)

    Look and search all you want kid!

    But you’re gonna be called on the carpet regarding McCain’s career record.

    It will not only strangle him but you also!

    Live with it!

  14. Michael Holliday says

    In the next month McCain and the press will throw everything and the kitchen sink at JD.

    When JD comes out of this Dark Night, only then will McCain howl, screech and leave with a whimper…

    Let the debates begin and then fire the overwhelming salvo of TV and radio commercials for Hayworth’s campaign!

    Avanti! (forward!)

  15. Boy Molly you sure have the Huckster Kool Aid drinkers on the defensive. Ok Mr. ‘Holliday’ please have JD bring it on. His own words are what is doing him in. This is really getting hilarious!

  16. Michael Holliday says

    #TonyGOPrano Says:
    June 28th, 2010 at 4:31 pm

    Boy Molly you sure have the Huckster Kool Aid drinkers on the defensive. Ok Mr. ‘Holliday’ please have JD bring it on. His own words are what is doing him in. This is really getting hilarious!
    _____

    Tony: It was John McCain, in his own words on YouTube, who defended Obama while he was running for President.

    McCain would not fight for Presidency and he will not fight to protect Arizona from illegals.

    Let me reiterate: McCain’s highly-over-paid consultants have dropped the ball but at least they made a little money off the poor guy and contributed to Arizona’s economy in the process.

    The polls, the media shills and the traditional organs of political manipulation will fail when a candidate ignores the unreality industry and goes to the end and scores a touchdown.

    That’s why Tea Party candidates and others like JD are overthrowing the traditional forms.

    Your polls and attacks are the last Maginot Line about to be breached by the JD Hayworth campaign.

    I munch popcorn, eat hot wings and sip Root Beer while I giggle in delight at your final fusillade before your ignominious and ruinous defeat.

    When JD calls McCain on his “stuff” people will realize that it’s over.

    You know the routine by now: JD put on the big ten gallon cowboy hat, slaps on his lizard skin boots, grabs the broom of conservatism off the wall and sweeps McCain down Route 66 in a cloud of dust and whimsy!

    It’s JD’s house. McCain must now get used to tossing and turning and losing sleep every night. He must face his defeat. McCain must except his status as a soon-to-be BBQ’d, Chipoltle-styled Arizona Gila Monster on the Hayworth election day celebration fiesta feast grill!

  17. The big flaw with this poll is that it was conducted in households with at least one Republican in it. That left out the ones with Indpendents in it. The poll discounts the many conservative voters who changed their registration from Republican because of the disgust felt toward liberal RINOS
    Republicans like John McCain who only pose as a conservative come election time.

  18. To Team McCain:

    Keep running the negative ads against JD Hayworth! Our supporters continue to get angrier and angrier and that makes them give to the campaign! Our fundraising continues to go very well thanks to your attacks!

    https://www.jdforsenate.com/civicrm/contribute/transact?reset=1&id=80

  19. Lol…I mean it isn’t like JD is running a positive campaign. JD will lose. I personally think we are better off with McCain anyway. McCain has political clout. No one takes JD seriously.

    Imagine if JD had been in the senate instead of McCain when we had the gang of 14 deal. Instead of the gang of 14, we would have had the nuclear option and we would be totally screwed today in terms of our ability to conduct proper oversight of Obama’s judicial nominations.

  20. As for the poll, it is important to note that only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary, so these numbers are the only numbers that matter. What an independent thinks (even if they consider themselves conservative) is irrelevant.

  21. David, Independents CAN vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary. The only closed primary is for President of the United States.

    The Republican State Committee voted to pursue legal action to close primaries so only Republicans could vote in the Republican primary. The state party chairman has not moved this forward at any time during his terms of office as he promised he would – either before or after the state committee vote.

    Secretary of State Ken Bennett has also been unhelpful in moving this along. He has the ability to challenge the state law mandating open primaries as unconstitutional, but he has refused to help do this.

    Typically, a “maverick” Republican like McCain would benefit from an open primary. This year, with many conservatives having abandoned the Republican Party to join the ranks of independents, it’s hard to know what the effect will be.

  22. I’m sure the state party is waiting until the next election so their chosen candidate can have a better chance at winning. They aren’t too worried about what the PC’s voted on.

  23. Lisa the loser says

    Carlist- who care what Lisa Pitcher/ Molly James has to say. She is a two time loser for the State Chairmanship despite the endorsement of most of the Congressional delegation. That includes McLame. The only reason McLame give her the time of day is because her father Gordon writes checks.

    Bottom line is the PC’s don’t like McCain so his endorsement was meaningless. That’s like these polls taken before JD even starts to campaign. With the money McCain has spent, you would expect a bigger lead in a real poll.

  24. Well if they are open, I JD has zero chance.

  25. **I think JD has zero chance.**

  26. David,
    I’ve been to Tea Parties getting signatures for JD. If they all go to the polls, McCain is done. They are a lot more motivated than McCain supporters.

  27. “They are a lot more motivated than McCain supporters”

    LOL! Don’t bet on it!

  28. VSB is right. You HKP’s are soon going to find out just how small your group really is!

  29. Not A McCain Supporter says

    You mean it is the Rich and Famous who support McCain and the poor and unknown who support JD Hayworth. Wonder which has more members?

  30. Clearly some of you have not really read anything but your own comments.

    Did you not understand the part in the non-biased, independent poll published on June 24th and distributed via Real Clear Politics that only 38% of the people polled have a favorable view of JD?

    Did you see the part where 50% of the folks have an “unfavorable” view?

    You can try to spin this and make it all about McCain smearing him for the last few months but the reality is JD brought much of this on himself.

    He drips with arrogance and his radio show was so offensive to so many, many people all who got a great chance to know him via his own lips. He was just too cute and sarcastic for his own good.

    How many times can he use a pregnant pause before delivering a corny, softly spoken, zinger can people endure before they begin to think this guy is a freak show?

    How many rude and insulting ways can he bend an argument to make it go his way and people not see right thru him?

    How many excuses and explanations for his bad judgement…usually dealing with money or payroll of some sort…before the public just gets it?

    McCain didn’t do anything to JD. He did it to himself. And very publicly because that is just his style.

  31. McCain has spent over 3 million to lie to people. JD doesn’t have that much. If people were educated about McCain’s involvement with LaRaza and that he has sponsored 2 cap and trade bills, they would drop him quickly. Instead, he gets a pass because he served in the war. John Kerry served in the war, it doesn’t make him a good senator. As much as I appreciate what Sen. McCain did for his country, the life he has lived since then is what affects our country.

  32. #3: What’s the flaw in logic over a poll – with numbers? The polls are what they are. McCain is ahead, as he has been the entire time.

    McCain is likely debating JD simply because that’s what is done in campaigns. You are mistaken if you think this is some kind of coup. This is merely a perfunctory campaign event and will not move any numbers unless JD decides to rachet up his strategy and go ape on McCain like he did on his radio show. And we know how that ended…

  33. Keep it up DeAnn. You show your ignorance of reality with every post.

    Kerry served months, his most severe injury was when he shot himself in the hand.

    There is no way you can compare that to the tremendous life of service led by John McCain.

    It is more pointing of fingers that need to point directly to JD.

    The truth comes out from his very own actions ala the “Free Money” ad, the true story of his deeper than deep involvement with Abramoff is well-known, and his inability to articulate a clear message based on HIS own record is no ones fault but JD’s.

    The $$$ will not materialize for JD to try and rehab his self-imposed image. There is not enough time or money to accomplish that with the remaining days of the primary. Even if there were, it is too deeply set in the minds of voters.

    No one is going to ride up on a white horse and hand the campaign gobs of dough so they can try to produce and distribute enough material to undo all that JD has done to himself.

    Considering the numbers, it wouldn’t surprise me if Deakin gets more votes than JD.

    This is over.

  34. Michael Holliday says

    Seems like Glenn Beck’s got some shady promotional affiliations himself.

    http://caps.fool.com/blogs/even-peter-schiff-calls-glenn/398072

    Like I said, Glenn Beck is not the end all be all of conservatism.

    Sometimes he’s right, sometimes he’s wrong.
    He’s wrong on JD and better take a closer look at both himself and McCain before he starts hurling charges of Hucksterism or Sheisterism.

  35. I have been to the Tea Parties too. I even asked several people what they thought about the upcoming race. Every person I asked said they preferred McCain.

  36. Michael Holliday says

    #David Says:
    June 29th, 2010 at 8:57 am

    I have been to the Tea Parties too. I even asked several people what they thought about the upcoming race. Every person I asked said they preferred McCain.
    _____

    Thanks for the science fiction.

    You’re absolutely nuts if you say Tea Partiers are for McCain.

    McCain is one of the reasons the Tea Party exists in the first place!

    The Tea Party stands in direct opposition to McCain-style politics!

    You, sir, are a potted plant!

  37. Jill Arizona says

    Anne, YOU are the one showing your ignorance.

    McCain’s own website showed how to receive those same grants that he bashed JD for.

    Abramoff scandal? You have got to be joking!

    Here’s the letter proving that the Department of Justice says that JD is not the target, subject, or focus of any DOJ investigation, case, or other preceding.

    http://www.fittrust.org/fit-trust-attorney-letter.html

    And of course JD DOES stand on his record – the consistent conservative! 98% lifetime rating with the American Conservative Union, 89% lifetime with Citizens Against Government Waste, not to mention that:

    “What’s more, since 2001, McCain has, on average, ranked as the 9th least conservative Republican in the Senate according to National Journal’s ratings. Contrast this with Hayworth, who in his 12 years in Congress ranked, on average, as the 46th most conservative member of the House — putting him solidly amongst the top third of Republican representatives during this period.”

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/mccain-vs-hayworth-no-contest-for-conservatives/

    And lastly,
    J.D. HAYWORTH COMANDEER’S JOHN McCAIN’S
    STRAIGHT TALK EXPRESS!!!

    http://networkedblogs.com/5hX30

  38. @Michael Holliday

    I didn’t say the Tea Party supported McCain, I just said that all the people I spoke to at the Tea Party preferred McCain to JD.

    The Tea Party is very fractured. The common theme seems to be opposition to Obama. Besides that, the opinions vary widely. I was amazed to see a bunch of old farts from the so-called Greatest Generation holding up signs saying ‘hands off my Medicare’. LOL. What a great sign to have at an anti-big government protest. The one program that can undoubtedly and single-handedly bankrupt our country seems to be the one program they care about more than any other?

    Needless to say, I was completely appalled and baffled that someone at a Tea Party would think that way…and that was when I realized how fractured and decentralized the Tea Party was.

    So to say all Tea Party sympathizers are against McCain…well there is no way for you to know that and I am not sure there is any evidence that supports that statement.

  39. Dear Jill,

    You are so right…Senator McCain’s web site did have those same grants…therein lies the issue.

    JD was part of a scam telling people they needed to PAY lots of money…he was paid to tell them this….information they could get for FREE in places like, their very own Senator’s web site. JD knew this, he liked the $$$.

    Twist it however you like, there is only one way to spell S-C-A-M.

    You left out another distinction of JD’s…

    Voted one of the least intelligent members of Congress, 3rd actually! A distinction he proves correct daily….

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/mar/18/jd-hayworth/jd-hayworth-claims-massachusetts-ruling-opens-door/

    http://politifi.com/news/JD-Hayworth-Says-US-Never-Declared-War-on-Nazi-Germany-936996.html

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/02/mccain-rival-hayworth-birther-questions-about-identity-theft.html

  40. Michael Holliday says
  41. Laurie G. says

    JD continues to amuse me. JD may have many issues but his lack of knowledge, historical facts, Congressional smarts and ethics seem to put him far down on the list for me. JD is too egocentric, too into filling his own bank account and is too corrupt to return to Congress.

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